Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Monday's SLBM test from the PLA Navy, including questions surrounding its timing and location, regional angst, and a reminder that the PLA continues to enhance its nuclear triad capabilities. Then: Two new PLA generals are promoted while rectification continues and five CMC seats remain vacant, and reactions to last week's shocking CITIC plane crash and a major security breach in Beijing. From there: An emailer asks about America's interests in maintaining the Taiwan status quo, Beijing considers limiting access to advanced AI models, the knives are out for Jeffrey Kessler at BIS, and the White House preps for Xi's visit in September. At the end Questions about the release of pastor Ezra Jin, context for the U.S. sentencing of disgraced tycoon Guo Wengui, and the Washington Wizards get a letter from Rep. John Moolenaar.

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Related Readings:

Floods and Xi’s instructions; PRC to limit access to top AI models?; PBoC policy support for Hong Kong; Tax burden on private firms -- Sinocism

Two new PLA generals; Submarine-launched missile test; Ezra Jin released; “Routine” patrols of waters east of Taiwan -- Sinocism

China’s SLBM Test Underscores the Importance of a Ballistic Missile Launch Notification Agreement -- CSIS

China conducts rare submarine-launched ballistic missile test, angering Pacific neighbors -- CNN

China test fires missile into Pacific, alarming regional powers -- Reuters

A small plane hit Beijing’s tallest tower. Much remains unclear. -- Reuters

Beijing is looking at curbing overseas access to China’s top AI models, sources say -- Reuters

‘A massive screw-up’: China hardliners take aim at Commerce Department official -- Politico

Trump speeds up helipad project ahead of Xi visit, adding $875K, records show -- WaPo

China Raises Pressure on Taiwan With Expanded Coast Guard Patrols -- NYT

China releases Christian pastor after appeal from Donald Trump -- FT

Chinese tycoon sentenced to 30 years in US jail -- BBC

Select Committee: Owner of Capitals, Wizards Should Cut Ties with Chinese Military Company Alibaba -- China Select Committee

Erling Haaland + a 195-year-old Chinese herbal tea? Yes, really.-- YouTube

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On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building and further signs that one year after from a summer of rumors and one year out from the 21st Party Congress, Xi’s power remains entrenched as ever. Then: MOFCOM and the Ministry of Finance announced restrictions on several dozen US firms, the global memory chip shortage is an opportunity for CXMT and YMTC, what to make of the U.S. government's scrutiny of ASML, and Elon Musk's alarmism at the West’s China vulnerabilities. At the end: Takeaways from the EU Council meeting on China, Germany's push for PRC currency revaluation, structural forces that yield EU inertia, and emails on Chinese soccer, space warfare, and the JIm Cramer of weather.

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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from Xi's visit to North Korea this week, including the conspicuous silence on North Korea's nuclearization, Kim Jong Un's assistance to Russia's war in Ukraine, Beijing as Kim's top priority, U.S.-Japan dialogue on regional nuclear threats, and an email about the PRC as a communist country. From there: CPPCC Chairman Wang Huning leads an inspection tour of Xinjiang ahead of the July 1st implementation of the national ethnic unity law, plus thoughts on Xinjiang's strategic importance generally and why Beijing sees its recent efforts as successful. At the end: China preps for an AI infrastructure buildout, the Pentagon alleges that Alibaba, Baidu and BYD are linked to the PLA, the Busan truce is being tested by both sides, and two Knicks stars wish students good luck on the Gaokao.

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Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with Xi Jinping's call to seize the commanding heights of science, technology, and industry across six industries of the future, as well as the State Council's move to release a 34-article law that will implicate domestic firms, foreign businesses and potentially foreign governments, as well as PRC financial institutions and individual investors. From there: Reactions to Secretary of War Pete Hegseth's remarks at the 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue, why an absence of Taiwan mentions in his main speech is not necessarily seen in Beijing as a shift in policy, and questions regarding U.S. partnerships elsewhere in the region. At the end: The looming trade tensions between Europe and China, the expulsion of New York Times journalist Vivian Wang, the 37th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacres, and Steph Curry's new endorsement deal with Li-Ning.

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Related Readings:

New regulations on outbound investment; Qiushi on future industries; Chip export control dysfunction; Shangri-La Dialogue; EU-China -- Sinocism

Agricultural and rural modernization; Socialist political economy; UK-PRC; PRC media in Africa -- Sinocism

China Tightens Rules on Outbound Investment in Fight for Global Tech Edge -- WSJ

State Council Regulations on Outbound Investment -- Sinocism Translation

China Expands Outbound Investment Rules to Cover Individuals -- Bloomberg

Pete Hegseth says US-China ties are ‘better than in years’ -- FT

Hegseth’s Message to Asian Partners: Do More to Get More -- NYT

Japan’s defence minister Koizumi rejects China accusations of ‘new militarism’ -- FT

Brussels fires starting gun on tougher China trade policy, as Beijing vows retaliation -- SCMP

Watching China in Europe - June 2026 -- Noah Barkin

After China Orders a Times Reporter to Leave the Country, the U.S. Reciprocates -- NYT

Tiananmen Tonight Trailer -- Tiananmen Tonight

Vandals break into Tiananmen crackdown museum in US, founder says -- Hong Kong Free Press

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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that Beijing moved to further ease hukou restrictions, including why this is a welcome change for millions of Chinese citizens, as well as a look at questions and challenges as the reforms are implemented. Then: A report that Chinese AI talent has been restricted from leaving China, while Beijing continues its efforts to control capital outflow and offshore investments. From there: Indications that the US has indeed paused its second tranche of arms sales to Taiwan, and more details on a US-China board of investment. Then: PRC-Japan updates, including reports of Takaichi recriminations from Xi in his meeting with Trump, heavy rare earth shipments restricted for the past four months, the cards Japan has yet to play, and Mao's strategic stalemate as a stage of protracted war, not an endgame. At the end: An American journalist for Xinhua and other state outlets is arrested and accused of acting as an unregistered agent of th…

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On today's show Andrew and Bill parse the messaging from both sides of last week's US-China summit in Beijing. Topics include: What the PRC means by "a constructive relationship of strategic stability," why the US side adopted the framing as well, a relative absence of tangible deliverables, and why "a calculated stalling tactic from both sides designed to manage risk" may be a more accurate rendering of the status quo. From there: Trump's various comments on Taiwan spark concern and questions, plus notes on Rubio, Ratner, an indictment of Chinese shipping magnates, and an Iran ceasefire Xi calls "imperative." At the end: Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing, questions for the EU, and more bad news for Nvidia in China.

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Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill talk through 360 degrees of President Trump's trip to Beijing this week. Topics include: Jensen Huang hitching a ride in Alaska, general expectations for deliverables after limited leaks and hurried advance planning, Trump's reception in Beijing, and the limits of "upper hand" analysis. From there: A coterie of billionaire CEOs make the trip with Trump, a US Chamber of Commerce/Rhodium report warning about the PRC's industrial strategy, and Trump makes overtures about "opening" China. At the end: Questions on Taiwan arm sales and AI cooperation, the expected talks on Ezra Jin and Jimmy Lai, a trillion dollar investment report that went viral eight months later, Xi's calculus before a 21st Party Congress, the Iran question looming over the week's meetings, and big, fat hug speculation.

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Related Readings:

Trump China visit; China’s Next Generation Industrial Policy; Standardizing and developing AI agents; No more deflation?; Ding Xuexiang visits Huawei -- Sinocism

Jensen Huang hitching a ride -- Emily Goodin on X

A weakened Trump arrives at Xi’s court -- FT

Trump on Opening China -- Truth Social

Trump is taking more than a dozen U.S. executives to China. Jensen Huang isn’t one of them -- CNBC

China expanding its industrial dominance, warns US business group -- FT

China’s Next-Generation Industrial Policy -- Rhodium

Donald Trump demands Xi Jinping ‘open’ China to US business -- FT

Xi Is Poised to Press Trump on Arms Sales to Taiwan -- NYT

U.S. and China Pursue Guardrails to Stop AI Rivalry From Spiraling Into Crisis -- WSJ

Families of two Americans jailed in China urge Trump to seek their release -- Reuters

Jimmy Lai is not forgotten as Trump goes to China -- WaPo

US-China Relations Cannot Return to the Past, But Can Have a Better Future—On the Occasion of the China-US Heads of State Meeting—— - Guo Jiping -- People’s Daily (Sinocism Translation)

Is Trump About to Invite In the Biggest Predator in the World? -- NYT

Team Chyyyyyna -- Lara Trump on X

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

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On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that the Meta-Manus deal will likely be unwound in its entirety in the wake of a ruling from the NDRC on Monday. Topics include: The legal grounding cited by Beijing, reports that Manus failed to seek regulatory approval prior to its relocation and acquisition, Mark Zuckerberg as the photo negative of Tim Cook, Beijing’s signal to the AI ecosystem, and why fears of chilled innovation may be slightly overstated. Then: Takeaways from April’s Politburo assessing the economy after Q1, including a nod to the Iran war, no signs of stimulus, and why cracking down on involution is easier said than done. At the end: The MSS argues that foreign forces are driving the “lying flat” campaign, while the U.S. quietly applies pressure on a variety of fronts in advance of May’s meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping.

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On today's show Andrew and Bill return to discuss the PRC's posture amidst the ongoing war in Iran. Topics include: Xi's call to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, an interdicted Iranian ship that may have been carrying missile precursors from China, Trump's posture toward China three weeks before his summit in Beijing, March export numbers, and deals between the US and Indonesia and the US and the Philippines. Then: The SAMR fines several e-commerce giants over food safety concerns in the "ghost delivery" sector, plus thoughts on the ongoing struggle to combat involution. From there: New regulations in Beijing to crack down on foreign companies attempting to diversify supply chains, the USTR's Jamieson Greer comments on US partners and a new rare earth strategy, and notes on tensions between the PRC and Japan. At the end: The MATCH Act in Congress and the continued scrutiny over semiconductor manufacturing equipment, an updated timeline for DeepSeek's new model, and a Mandelso…

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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the tentative ceasefire in Iran and reports that the PRC applied pressure to the Iranians to defuse the tensions. Topics include: The lack of clarity on what the PRC actually did and why, China's vote at the UN this week, why the PRC would like the war to end sooner rather than later, and relationships with other Gulf countries that may or may not change because of the war. From there: Ma Xingrui's disappearance from public view is met with official confirmation of an investigation, Anthropic's Mythos model clarifies the stakes of the AI race, DeepSeek news, a token crunch in China, and scenes from Victor Wembanyama's visit to the Shaolin Temple last summer.

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Show Notes:

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with thoughts on China's response to the war in Iran, including a peace plan co-authored with Pakistan, why the PRC is not necessarily interested in global leadership, how China sees a deepening U.S. rift with NATO countries, and President Trump's visit to Beijing rescheduled for May 14th. From there: Context for the KMT Chair's visit to China later this month, reactions to a Reuters report on Huawei's latest AI chips, while the Financial Times reports that both Manus co-founders have been banned from leaving China. At the end: ZXMOTO steals the show at the World Superbike Championship and Zhang Xue introduces himself to the world.

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Related Readings:

China-Pakistan Iran peace initiative; PBoC monetary committee meeting; US-China; ZXMOTO; Taxes wanted -- Sinocism

KMT Chairwoman to visit China; Li Qiang on Xiong’an; March Politburo meeting; Beijing bans drones; WDO, SAMR on involution -- Sinocism

China, Pakistan Issue Joint Call for Peace, Reopening Hormuz -- Bloomberg

A brief history of China’s X-point plans for the Middle East -- China-Mena Newsletter

Will China be the real winner from the Iran war? -- The Economist

A blueprint for Chinese global leadership -- Financial Times

Secret Codes and Yuan Fees Get Ships Through Iran’s Hormuz Tollbooth -- Bloomberg

Chinese analysis on the war in Iran -- China Mena Newsletter

Trump plans May visit to China for talks with Xi after Iran war delay -- Reuters

Trump-Xi summit: US trade chief casts doubt on pre-meeting Beijing visit -- SCMP

Taiwan’s opposition leader to visit China next month, ahead of Trump -- Reuters

Exclusive: Huawei’s new AI chip finds favour with ByteDance, Alibaba which plan to place orders, sources say -- Reuters

China reviews $2bn Manus sale to Meta as founders barred from leaving country -- Financial Times

Chinese startup ZXMOTO wins big at superbike championship -- China Daily

From Repair Shop to World Podium: Chinese Biker Goes Viral After Historic Win -- Sixth Tone

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the “listen on” button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with last week's indictment of Wally Liaw, the co-founder of Super Micro, and its implications for US chip policy. Topics include: Incredible details from the indictment, US enforcement options, and bipartisan calls for government action on Nvidia exports to China and Southeast Asia. Then: Xi takes three Standing Committee members and three other Politburo members to inspect the progress at Xiong'an, signaling continued commitment to the "new area" 60 miles south of Beijing. At the end: Reports that the US visit to China is delayed indefinitely, the PRC's delicate diplomatic calculus as the Iran war continues, and tech news on Manus, Apple, OpenClaw, and an FCC ban on routers.

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On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the news that President Trump has postponed his visit to Beijing amid the war in Iran, including why a delay made sense for both sides, a “Board of Trade” proposal amid signs of stability in Paris, and the uncertainty that pervades on both sides as the war in Iran continues. From there: Reactions to a DNI assessment on China’s reunification intentions, news on U.S. weapons sales to Taiwan, the unknowns for China as Gulf unrest persists, and questions surrounding PLA readiness in 2026. At the end: Reactions to reports that several military scientists have had their profiles scrubbed from public websites, while Jensen Huang tells the world that Nvidia has received purchase orders for the H200 but Groq will not be shipping inference chips.

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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the frenzy surrounding OpenClaw in China, including Beijing's response, security concerns, liability questions, an object lesson in the Chinese market, and why Tencent looks like a potential winner as regulatory issues are sorted in the months to come. From there: Reports that Beijing is unhappy with the limited preparation in advance of Trump's visit to China, news that pieces of the THAAD system have been relocated from South Korea to the Middle East, Trump's promised gift to China at the Strait of Hormuz, and fentanyl tension as March 31st looms. At the end: Reactions to the Two Sessions, why the "Iron Rooster" budgeting approach is consistent with the past few years of planning, missing PLA generals, and Sharp China Sports news as BYD mulls an entry to F1 and Lewis Hamilton tours China.

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Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the war in Iran and its implications for the PRC. Topics include: Upsides and downsides for China, why US strategy was likely related to Iran and not the PRC, questions about the Strait of Hormuz, the Iran partnership and PRC global leadership, implications for Taiwan, why a Beijing visit from Donald Trump remains likely, and yet another US war in the Middle East… From there: What to watch for at the Two Sessions this week, an exodus at Alibaba, waiting for a new DeepSeek model, and distillation alarm at American AI labs. At the end: Another spy scandal engulfs Labour in the UK, and fun facts about Spider-Man: No Way Home and its failure to clear $2 billion worldwide.

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Related Readings:

Reactions to the US-Israel attack on Iran; Prepping for the Two Sessions; Science and technology insurance -- Sinocism

Reactions to Iran war; US-China; Two Sessions; DeepSeek and Qwen -- Sinocism

China Calls on All Sides to Protect Ships Transiting Hormuz -- Bloomberg

What’s behind China’s careful response to its ally Iran after US-Israel strikes? -- SCMP

Taiwan Arms Sale Approved by Congress Is Delayed as Trump Plans Visit to Beijing -- NYT

Inside the plan to kill Ali Khamenei -- FT

What to Watch at China’s Two Sessions in 2026 -- Center for China Analysis

Alibaba AI Whiz Who Warned of US-China Tech Gap Steps Down -- Bloomberg

DeepSeek to release long-awaited AI model in new challenge to US rivals -- FT

Detecting and preventing distillation attacks -- Anthropic

Exclusive: China’s DeepSeek trained AI model on Nvidia’s best chip despite US ban, official says

Husband of Labour MP among three arrested on suspicion of spying for China -- The Guardian

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the “listen on” button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

The “email link” in the pulldown shown above will send you an email that also makes it easy to set it up in your preferred podcast app on your phone.

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Thanks for listening.

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with the reports that the PRC is threatening to scuttle Trump’s visit to Beijing over a second arms package from the U.S. to Taiwan, including thoughts on next moves from the U.S., how this arms shipment happened, and the PLA’s dangerous aerial maneuvers around Taiwan. From there: Reactions to the news that Jimmy Lai has been sentenced to 20 years in Hong Kong prison, a State Council white paper on “One Country Two Systems,” and Sanae Takaichi’s party secures a supermajority in Japan three months after the PRC’s pressure campaign over her Taiwan comments. At the end: The propaganda value of AI models, and a word about hockey and the Winter Olympics.

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Happy New Year! 马年大吉！

Related Readings:

Jimmy Lai sentenced; Xi on Sci-tech self-reliance; Japan elections; US-China; Nanjing Museum case; AI propaganda -- Sinocism

Xi’s Beijing inspection; Li on …

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Show Notes:

On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with follow-up thoughts on the purges at the top of the PLA, including reactions to a New York Times piece on Xi’s “paranoia,” answers that have yet to materialize, He Weidong suicide rumors, and various theories on what any of this might signal. From there: Keir Starmer’s trip to Beijing, caution before drawing too many conclusions from the recent steps from Canada and the U.K., and a flurry of stories about Xi's ambitions for the RMB as a global reserve currency. At the end: Parsing the readouts from a surprise Trump-Xi call Wednesday, why Taiwan arms sales may have been at issue, the U.S. gets serious about critical minerals, Panama deals a blow to China, and Nvidia’s H200 adventures head to the State Department.

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Related Readings:

Uruguay President in China; Document No. 1; Development of future industries; Building a financial power; Fighting deflation; Zhang Youxia; 2026 GDP -- Sinocism

Xi meets Starmer; Services consumption work plan; Soccer corruption; Nvidia and China -- Sinocism

Ruptures in China’s Leadership Could Be Due to Paranoia and Power Plays -- NYT

China’s Xi, Now Alone Atop His Military, Is the Sole Voice in Tackling Taiwan -- WSJ

The Unsettling Implications of Xi’s Military Purge -- Foreign Affairs

Xi the Destroyer -- Foreign Affairs

The Scorpion and the Frogs -- Sharp Text

LIVE with Bill Bishop: The world order is shifting — and China is moving fast to shape it. -- Sinocism

Been spendin’ most their lives livin’ in the free trade paradise -- China Articles

Follow the Path of Financial Development with Chinese Characteristics and Build a Strong Financial Nation -- Quishi

Xi speaks with Putin and then Trump; Us convenes critical minerals meeting; H200 sales in limbo; Document No.1 explained - Sinocism

Trump, Xi Hold Call as China Warns on Taiwan Arms Sales -- Bloomberg

Taiwan launches firepower hub with US as Beijing steps up military pressure -- SCMP

Trump to Launch $12 Billion Critical Mineral Stockpile to Blunt Reliance on China -- Bloomberg

China Loses a Foothold in Panama -- WSJ

China Warns Panama of ‘Heavy Price’ on Court Ruling on Ports -- Bloomberg

Nvidia AI chip sales to China stalled by US security review -- FT

To add the Sharp China feed to your preferred podcast player:

Click on the “listen on” button and you will see a dropdown with several options. Make sure you are logged into your account when you do it so you get the correct private RSS feed for subscribers. If you have not logged in for a while you can enter your email and then we will send you a login link.

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Thanks for listening.

On today’s show Andrew and Bill react to the news that the rumors were true, and CMC members Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are under investigation for corruption. Topics include: The timing of the announcement from the Defense Ministry, why this weekend’s news inspired such a volume of reactions around the world, a history of Xi’s crackdowns on the PLA, questions about rumors of a coup against Xi, reports that Zhang Youxia was working with the U.S., the PLA corruption heyday and its implications for what might come next, and various ways to think about the implications for Taiwan. At the end: The first batch of H-200s is approved for purchase, and the TikTok sale is approved as users lash out with censorship claims.

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Related Readings:

PLA purges intensify: Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli under investigation -- Sinocism

Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli case; National Conference on Science an…

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On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with reactions to a new “strategic partnership” between China and Canada, including thoughts on fissures in the West that are a win for China, Prime Minister Carney’s “new world order” comments, U.S. rhetoric that created the conditions for a thaw and why this direction could be a decision Canadians come to regret. From there: The UK and countries in the EU consider a thaw of their own, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer headed to Beijing, the “mega embassy” approved in London, and America pushing for concessions on Greenland. At the end: Thoughts on the latest rumors surrounding Zhang Youxia and the stunning scale of PLA purges to date, a congressman accuses Nvidia of astroturfing opposition to chip legislation, and the CBA becomes embroiled in the latest gambling indictment from the FBI.

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Meeting for senior officials on Fou…

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On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with the instability in Iran, including thoughts on Trump's Truth Social post threatening 25% tariffs on Iran trade partners, why that threat is unlikely to materialize as additional US tariffs on Chinese goods, and the PRC's concerns about oil access, investments, and regional stability as the situation continues to evolve in Tehran. From there: Chinese refiners eye Canadian crude oil, Prime Minister Mark Carney visits Beijing and seeks Canadian export markets beyond the US, and a China Daily editorial celebrates the opportunity and urges the Canadians to address the root causes of previous setbacks in bilateral relations. At the end: The "Are You Dead?" app dominates Apple's App Store in China, new regulations and new reporting on the H200 saga, the US updates its Chinese drone policy, and the CCDI highlights another possible area of US-China convergence.

Click here for instructions to add the podcast to your preferred player. Or liste…

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