Readings for 2010-09-03

  • begging 4 leniency in beijing courtyard in trial over fatal kindergarten fire ????????????_??_???? http://bit.ly/c5zM1T #
  • Same CEQ also has essay by Scott Kennedy http://bit.ly/cuC44d on indigenous innovation. Says Amcham report bit hyperbolic #
  • l8est issue of China Economic Quarterly out. urs truly has essay on China's Internet-Invisible Birdcage http://bit.ly/b52dDM but not online #
  • Bernanke Says He Failed 2 C Financial Flaws – NYT http://nyti.ms/cj6Lvs fail big, keep ur job/get promoted. The New American way $macro #
  • India OKs $6.5B Plan To Build Stealth Destroyers – Defense News http://bit.ly/9AX1Vp #
  • Letter from China – A China Newly Rich and Still Quite Poor – NYTimes.com http://nyti.ms/9UIjQt #
  • SpyTalk – Li Fengzhi, Chinese spy who defected to U.S., facing deportation http://bit.ly/bGOkbJ sent as PhD student he claims #

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2 thoughts on “Readings for 2010-09-03

  1. Re: Bernanke

    You’ve been in China for this long and you still haven’t figured it out? China is all about using substandard resources (human, material, economic, etc…) for sufficient and perhaps maximum effect; in Rumsfeld’s terms, you fight with the army you have, not the army you wish you had, and I believe this applies to Bernanke. The problem here is not individual incompetence, it’s that you need to get the best person available for the job, with the definition of best including political acceptability etc… In Bernanke’s case, who would you support to replace him? Even if we accept that he’s reasonably incompetent, who would be better than him at his job? And Bernanke’s competence/incompetence… that’s a range, you know? It’s not quantifiable to begin with, and even if it were, could you get absolute accuracy on his competence? At the same time, you’d have the same problem with a replacement, so by replacing Bernanke, you’d also be taking a risk that you correctly evaluated the competence of his successor. All considered, then, a candidate to replace Bernanke should have his probable competence/suitability with an mean at least out of Bernanke’s competence range, that is, the best estimate of Bernanke’s competence is below the average estimate of his replacement’s competence.

  2. Re: Bernanke

    You’ve been in China for this long and you still haven’t figured it out? China is all about using substandard resources (human, material, economic, etc…) for sufficient and perhaps maximum effect; in Rumsfeld’s terms, you fight with the army you have, not the army you wish you had, and I believe this applies to Bernanke. The problem here is not individual incompetence, it’s that you need to get the best person available for the job, with the definition of best including political acceptability etc… In Bernanke’s case, who would you support to replace him? Even if we accept that he’s reasonably incompetent, who would be better than him at his job? And Bernanke’s competence/incompetence… that’s a range, you know? It’s not quantifiable to begin with, and even if it were, could you get absolute accuracy on his competence? At the same time, you’d have the same problem with a replacement, so by replacing Bernanke, you’d also be taking a risk that you correctly evaluated the competence of his successor. All considered, then, a candidate to replace Bernanke should have his probable competence/suitability with an mean at least out of Bernanke’s competence range, that is, the best estimate of Bernanke’s competence is below the average estimate of his replacement’s competence.

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