The Sinocism China Newsletter For 09.13.12

Thanks for reading. The best way to see this daily post is to subscribe by email, especially if you are in China, as Sinocism is blocked by the GFW. You can also follow me on Twitter @niubi or Sina Weibo @billbishop.

Just links today:

BUSINESS AND ECONOMY

Measures target economic growth |Economy |chinadaily.com.cn -top news on many news sites this morning// The State Council on Wednesday announced a series of measures to stabilize foreign trade growth following lackluster trade figures in recent months, in the government’s latest move to boost economic growth amid the global economic turmoil.

Big Stimulus Would Harm China Long-Term Growth: Xinhua – Bloomberg – Massive stimulus measures would be “detrimental” to China’s sustainable economic growth, the official Xinhua News Agency wrote in a commentary. “Many have expected the government to announce an aggressive plan, similar to the 4-trillion-yuan ($632 billion) stimulus package issued in 2008, to keep the economy from stalling for a second time,” Xinhua writer Liu Jie wrote in the commentary yesterday. “However, a massive stimulus plan is not only unlikely, but would be detrimental to the country’s sustainable growth.”

China FX Regulator Denies Large Capital Outflows | MNI – BEIJING (MNI) – China’s foreign exchange regulator denied Wednesday that the economy is facing any significant capital outflows, arguing that signs of outflows are simply balance sheet items being shifted between banks and corporates as perceptions about the outlook for the yuan change. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange acknowledged in a report accompanying its revised second quarter balance of international payments that the volume of inflows into China has shrunk as companies cut their short dollar positions.

Learning to Cope with Lean Times – Caixin Online – Latest Hu Shuli editorial// The growth of government revenue is declining, but spending is still rising. Officials must learn how to trim the fat in their spending

FT Alphaville » Now you see positive signs in the the China loan data, now you don’t

李稻葵:指望房产税解决房价问题是做梦|李稻葵|房产税|房价_21世纪网 – Li Daokui: “Keep dreaming that a property tax will fix the problem of high real estate prices” good for him, there has been some naive commentary, in english and chinese, about the impact of a possible property tax//

Shadow Bankers Vanishing Leave China Victims Seeing Scams – Bloomberg –hard to feel much sympathy for the Wenzhounese// China’s slowest economic growth in three years and a slumping property market, where many so-called shadow-banking investments are parked, are squeezing millions of Chinese who have invested the money of friends and acquaintances chasing higher yields to honor those payments. The slowdown also is putting pressure on the government to rein in private lending to avoid a spate of defaults that could increase the number of victims and lead to social unrest.。。Only 30 percent of the funds in Wenzhou’s shadow-banking market have gone to finance small companies, while 60 percent went to property speculation and re-lending, pushing up the cost of funds by end-users, the Wenzhou branch of People’s Bank of China said last year. The city’s economy expanded 5 percent in the first half, the slowest in three years.

Bears at the heart of the dragon – FT.com – my guess is he was always the dumb foreigner across the table, but now the stakes may be even higher// In quiet conversations and background chats with Chinese officials and analysts about the state of things in China, the tone of despondency and cynicism was pervasive while the views of international attendees on China were generally bullish and upbeat… After a series of private meetings with Chinese officials and analysts at the WEF this week one senior executive from a very large western fund manager told the FT that he was doing just that: “After what I’ve heard I’m really worried now about being the dumb foreigner sitting across the negotiating table from the locals who are packed and ready to run to the airport.”

Patrick Chovanec: China’s Solyndra Economy – WSJ.com – Many in Washington have developed a serious case of China-envy, seeing it as an exemplar of how to run an economy. In fact, Beijing’s mandarins are no better at picking winners, and just as prone to blow money on boondoggles, as their Beltway counterparts.In his State of the Union address earlier this year, President Obama declared, “I will not cede the wind or solar or battery industry to China . . . because we refuse to make the same commitment here.” Given what’s really happening in China, he may want to think again.

China’s 3SBio gets buyout offer from CEO | Reuters – another privatization, one bidder affiliated w CITIC// China-based biotechnology firm 3SBio Inc (SSRX.O) said an investor group led by its chief executive Jing Lou has offered to take the company private for up to $15 per American Depositary Share (ADS), or about $331 million.

Chinese Companies Going private: What to look for – Google Docs – CLSA U call on Chinese companies going private with Mr. Barry Genkin, Chair of Asia Practice, of the law firm Blank Rome. He outlined the detailed steps of privatization, including regulatory/legal procedures and the rights of minority shareholders.

Rich-Poor Gap Widens to Most Since 1967 as Income Falls – Bloomberg – how close to China’s Gini index? we don’t know since China has not reported an official number in years, but likely far closer than most Americans think// The Census Bureau also reported that a measure of the gap between rich and poor households rose. A figure of zero means all income is evenly distributed while a 1 represents complete concentration. The measurement, known as the Gini index, rose to .463 from .456. The figure has risen steadily from its 1968 low of .351.

 

POLITICS

Senior leader stresses anti-corruption public education – Xinhua | English.news.cn – good news that he is out and about// senior Chinese leader He Guoqiang on Wednesday visited China’s major anti-graft newspapers and magazines, encouraging editorial staff to make greater contributions to anti-corruption public education.

[视频]贺国强强调加强和改进反腐倡廉宣传教育工作为党的十八大胜利召开营造良好氛围_新闻台_中国网络电视台 – video of He Guoqiang on Wednesday CCTV evening news looking good, report about his visit today to several magazine publishers

China’s next leader Xi Jinping ‘suffered heart attack’ – Telegraph – my Chinese doctor told me to quit swimming early this year because he said the cold water can easily cause cardiac events in middle-aged folks. I know I know, lots of readers think TCM is bunk…//“Although people have said he suffered a back injury, he actually had a heart attack, a myocardial infarction,” said Li Weidong, a political commentator in Beijing and the former editor of China Reform.

人民日报-1971年9月13日 林彪叛国出逃 坠机身亡 – 41st anniversary of Lin Biao’s flight to death, allegedly in a Mongolian grassland, People’s Daily features it in “this day in history”. we still do not know what really happened with this incident, so the idea that we really have a clue about what is going on with Bo Xilai and now Xi Jinping is kind of laughable//

Personnel changes in China’s Politics and Law Committees | East Asia Forum – Personnel changes to PLCs cannot be examined in isolation from the overall political situation in China. The decrease in police chiefs, and increase in deputy party secretaries serving on PLCs may reduce frictions, and strengthen the judiciary’s standing. Of course, local rationalisation of the PLCs does not entail a loosening of social control. At the time of writing, municipal level police chiefs in Guangdong were given command of local PAP armed police, indicating that keeping the security apparatus in line and dealing promptly with mass incidents preoccupy the Party roughly equally.

Official Punished for Sanlu Milk Scandal Promoted – Economic Observer Online – In-depth and Independent – Sun Xianze (孙咸泽), an official punished for the 2008 Sanlu (三鹿) milk power scandal that killed six infants and sickened an estimated 300,000, has been promoted to deputy president of the State Food and Drug Administration (SFDA).

Teacher, Violinist, Enemy of the State? Web Posts Spur Free Speech Debate in China | World | TIME.com – With his thin frame, shabby suit and graying hair, Chen Pingfu, who played his violin for handouts on the streets of northwestern Chinese city of Lanzhou, hardly seemed to be a threat to anyone. But after he wrote a series of online essays criticizing the country’s ruling Communist Party, the 55-year-old laid-off teacher was accused of “inciting subversion of state power”—a criminal charge generally reserved for China’s most prominent dissidents.

 

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

MOF Researcher Warns of Economic Sanctions on Escalating Territorial Dispute: Report-Caijing – A researcher with China’s Ministry of Commerce warned Wednesday of economic sanctions from Beijing on Japan after the neighboring country brushed off China’s warnings and “nationalized” the disputed Diaoyu islands.

Tokyo must come back ‘from the brink’ |Politics |chinadaily.com.cn – “China will never acknowledge Japan’s illegal grab and so-called actual control of the Diaoyu Islands,” Luo Zhaohui, director of the Foreign Ministry’s department of Asian affairs, told Shinsuke Sugiyama, director-general of the Asian and Oceania Affairs Bureau of the Japanese Foreign Ministry, during their meeting in Beijing.

U.S. cautions Japan, China over escalating islands row | Reuters – “This is the cockpit of the global economy and the stakes could not be bigger and the desire is to have all leaders to keep that squarely in mind,” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said in Washington. “We think in the current environment we want cooler heads to prevail, frankly,” Campbell said while answering questions at a debate held by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.

Commentary: U.S. seems unusually ignorant about history of Diaoyu Islands – Xinhua | English.news.cn –

China to mark up protected zones for its territorial sea base points – Xinhua | English.news.cn – BEIJING, Sept. 12 (Xinhua) — China’s State Oceanic Administration (SOA) on Tuesday released a series of measures to select and protect areas as the base points of the country’s territorial sea, a move to “ensure the country’s maritime interests.”

人民日报-耍小聪明的“姿态”一钱不值(国际论坛) 钟 声 – a short and very pointed comment from zhong sheng about japan in today’s people’s daily, but reads like it leaves door open for return to peaceful status quo//中华民族任人欺凌的时代已经一去不复返了。中国政府不会坐视领土主权受到侵犯。日本必须立即停止一切损害中国领土主权的行为,不折不扣地回到中日双方达成的共识和谅解上来,回到谈判解决争议的轨道上来。中日关系的改善和发展只能以此为基础,舍此别无他途。日本当迷途知返。

China condemns U.S. diplomatic compound attack – Xinhua | English.news.cn – “We are shocked at attacks on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi that caused the death and injury of a number of people, including the U.S. ambassador. And we strongly condemn the violent deeds,”

CHINASCOPE – International Herald Leader: “Within 10 Years, the U.S. Dollar Will Completely Collapse” – worrisome if policymakers think this is a high probability scenario, will lead to all sorts of policy errors// On September 6, 2012, the International Herald Leader, a newspaper under Xinhua News Agency, published an article titled “Within 10 Years, the U.S. Dollar Will Completely Collapse.” According to the article, “The so-called economic recovery in the United States, which is based on an increase in the national debt, is a false recovery.” The article predicts that “China’s economy will overtake the U.S. economy and become the world’s largest economy. The internationalization of the Chinese yuan will further improve Chinese people’s living standards.”

Inside the Ring: China rejects zero option – Washington Times – Gertz is pushing hard the idea that US has a had a massive intelligence failure in estimating the size of China’s nuclear forces. Part of his evidence is that Karber report based in part on a fictional Chinese TV series. seriously//

 

TECH AND MEDIA

Exclusive: Mayer Set to Get Yahoo’s Alibaba Billions in One Week – Kara Swisher – News – AllThingsD – Yahoo selling too early, how can they possibly deploy the cash in any manner that is likely to generate the return they could get by holding onto Alibaba, which one day may be one of the largest Internet firms by market capitalization in the world? I own Yahoo shares, painfully..// According to sources close to the situation, Yahoo will officially close the multi-billion sale of half its assets in China’s Alibaba Group in one week.Sources said the deal is set to be announced next Wednesday, in which the Chinese Internet giant will pay the Silicon Valley company $7.6 billion to buy back 20 percent of Alibaba. Yahoo still owns another 20 percent.

Alibaba may Go Public as Early as Next Year, Raising $8Bln-Caijing – The company will launch its initial public offering earlier than expected if the market improves, said the newspaper, adding that an investment-banking group began to take steps to prepare for the listing.

Baidu Challenger’s Search and Destroy Mission – Caixin Online – Qihoo an interesting company. Hearing there is a bulge bracket sell side China Internet analyst who is privately telling people he thinks Baidu’s stock is heading to $70, in part because Qihoo is proving search is a commodity. His public rating is not so bearish// A software company that morphed overnight to challenge China’s dominant search engine Baidu – which the rival’s chief executive blames for the industry’s “greatest damage” – has adaptability in its blood. But the flexible business strategy that built Qihoo 360 Technology Co. and its 360sou search engine is at the center of commercial row with Baidu, legal threats, stock sell-offs and a backlash from critics who question the company’s technology.

京东玩起网页游戏寻钱途:不靠零售赚钱_互联网_科技时代_新浪网 – ecommerce giant 360buy can’t make money selling goods so they are going to “leverage their platform” to get into online game operation? //

Too-familiar ring to Chinese devices – Michelle Quinn – POLITICO.com – As for sales of the Goophone, there is little Washington can do to prevent them right now short of igniting a trade war. However, lawmakers and regulators are narrowing their focal point to China’s growing use of patents — and insisting that those patents need to be of better “quality.”

Coming-Of-Age Tale for Chinese Cinema – NYTimes.com – Even the hedge fund crowd is getting into the act. Legendary Pictures, a production studio founded by Thomas Tull, a private equity investor, has named Peter Loehr, the former director of the Beijing office of the Creative Artists Agency, the head of Legendary East, which aims to make blockbuster co-productions that work in China and the rest of the world.

 

SOCIETY AND CULTURE

热点事件中的官员开微博为何叫座不叫好-中国青年报 – very interesting piece in China Youth Daily on officials using Weibo to deal with incidents. Communist Party Schools have fullblown classes on dealing with Weibo now? Sina CEO recorded a video last year about video for the Central Party School, would love to see it //张志安也指出,在“微博时代”,即使公布了全部的真相,也还是会有一部分公众继续质疑或批评。“在今天这种多元的舆论场上,加之改革开放以来积累的很多社会问题还没有得到彻底解决,公众对政府和官员有局部性的怨恨和普遍的不信任。”

教师节学生给老师送GUCCI包的真相_奥卡姆剃刀_新浪博客 – The story/picture of the girl gifting gucci bags to her teacher a hoax? even if this picture is a hoax the phenomenon of extravagant gift-giving to teachers is well-documented

Tiger Mom Meet Sunzi Dad? | Sinocism – related to the kids and bribery link yesterday, i wrote this in january// My nearly 6 year old twins are starting to lie, as most kids at this age at this do. Their occasional, transparent attempts at mendacity are cute but worrisome. At home in America the reaction would be to trot out George Washington and his cherry tree. But we live in China, and given the state of modern Chinese society I wonder if it is more important that they learn how to dissemble skillfully. Most of my Western friends are horrified that I would even ask this question, and most of my Chinese friends say “of course”.

 

ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT

Asia Risks Water Scarcity Amid Coal-Fired Power Embrace – Bloomberg – With China set to vaporize water equal to what flows over Niagara Falls each year, and India’s industrial water demand growing at twice the pace of agricultural or municipal use, Asia’s most populous nations will have to reconsider energy projects to avoid conflict between cities, farmers and industry.

 

FOOD AND TRAVEL

City govt seeks overseas officials – Globaltimes.cn – Beijing government has announced that for the first time, it is allowing foreigners to apply for positions as government officials. Both foreigners and overseas Chinese are welcome to apply for a government talent program, which is designed to attract overseas scholars and entrepreneurs for seven special positions in the Beijing government, the Global Times confirmed with the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Human Resources Tuesday.

Thanks for reading. The best way to see this daily post is to subscribe by email, especially if you are in China, as Sinocism is blocked by the GFW. You can also follow me on Twitter @niubi or Sina Weibo @billbishop.

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