A bueno deal for Xi and the markets

Hi everyone, I have moved up the Monday newsletter to Sunday evening to get out some quick thoughts on the Trump-Xi meeting. I am going to be on CNBC in the US tomorrow at 6AM to discuss the meeting and so there will likely not be another newsletter until Tuesday. Wish me luck, I have not done TV in a very long time…

The US and China agreed to step back from the brink of the trade conflict, at least for 90 days. President Trump told Xi Jinping that he will not add any new tariffs or increase the rate on existing ones while the US and China spend the next 90 days trying to work out a more lasting deal.

Conveniently that timeline gets both sides through key holidays—Christmas in America and the Lunar New Year in China. It also means the deadline hits right as the 2020 US Presidential election starts gearing up.

Markets so far seem pleased at the outcome, though there is little to indicate any of the structural, contentious issues in trade (such as IPR protection, forced technology transf…