A win for President Tsai; US-China trade deal; CCDI plenum

Congratulations to Taiwan for holding successful elections Saturday. President Tsai won as expected, and Beijing reacted as expected. I want to hope that Xi will decide he needs to find a way to talk with President Tsai, but I think it is more likely he doubles down on the intensifying efforts to isolate and pressure Taiwan.

Liu He and his delegation arrive in Washington DC today for the Wednesday signing of the phase one trade deal. Last Thursday I wrote that it had been two months since we had heard from Taoran Notes, the very accurate chronicler of the trade talks. He is back, with a post Monday (守住平常心 万事在人为) that is not what I would call very optimistic on the trade deal or the overall US-China relationship, but makes it clear it is better to have this deal than no deal. The author appears to be defending the deal against any domestic criticism, and reiterating that China needs to stay calm, keep opening up, and that any further reforms and opening around this deal are for China’s …