About those rumors of a "coup"

Sep 25, 2022

Apologies for working on a Sunday, but the rumor frenzy over the last 48 hours has gotten out of control.

For those who have not heard the rumors, Xi has been supposedly removed in a coup.

It’s CPC elite politics so never say never but I think this round of rumors is BS.

The rumor was originally hyped by an account with a track record of making bogus claims, and in the frenzied amplification no one has presented any credible sourcing or evidence, just lots of wishful thinking.

Today Xinhua announced the full delegate list for the 20th Party Congress and the statement about the selection, also read out on the Sunday CCTV Evening News, opens with the line “Under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core”

在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，党的二十大代表选举工作已经顺利完成。全国各选举单位分别召开党代表大会或党代表会议，选举产生了2296名出席党的二十大代表。

And Xi of course is one of the delegates:

The rumor also included claims of massive plane cancellations and how that indicated something was up. Those claims turned out to be incorrect.

We may not see Xi for a while and so his “disappearance” may continue to fuel this and perhaps other rumors.

There should be a Politburo meeting later this week, but CCTV does not always show video from inside those meetings. CCTV usually shows video from the monthly Politburo study sessions, held soon after the Politburo meeting, so that would be an important tell, and if past practice holds will likely meet Thursday.

Starting Friday the PRC goes on the October 1 National Day week-long holiday. Xi and other top leaders would normally appear at National Day related events. Then they all go dark for the holiday week, and then the 7th Plenum of the 19th Party Congress beings October 9. We should know with certainly by October 1 if something has happened. Again, I think these rumors are BS but there are things we can observe that either give them credence or discredit them.

There is always a chance Xi makes an appearance this coming week before the Politburo meeting, but there have been no announcements of scheduled activities.

Xi “disappeared” for over a week after his visit to Hong Kong for the July 1 handover anniversary, because he also had to quarantine was what I heard. If true, then he should also be quarantining after his SCO trip.

So the inherent opacity of the system just gives these rumors more room to spread, even if not based on reality.

For a little levity, here is a twitter thread from the China correspondent of Der Spiegel on what he found as he went around Beijing looking for signs of a coup: