"Beidaihe Break" is over; Jiang Zemin's 100th; RIP Zhu Rongji; US-China; July economic data; New Qiushi
It is always hard to restart after vacation. I know I have missed things and will be doing some catchup over the next few days.
The “Beidaihe Break” is over and I wanted to send out a shorter note before the daily grind returns Monday.
The top leadership will all make an appearance Monday morning at the commemoration of the 100th anniversary of the birth of the late General Secretary Jiang Zemin. This is a heavily scripted protocol ritual that should not yield any surprises beyond the inevitable speculation if any Jiang family members or retired senior leaders do not appear at the event, though no one should expect Hu Jintao to attend given his health issues.
The 16th issue of 2026 of Qiushi, published today, and which I have summarized and in part translated here, includes an article from the Institute of Party History and Literature of the CPC Central Committee on Jiang Zemin titled “在中国特色社会主义道路上不断创造无愧于时代和人民的新业绩 Continuously Creating New Achievements Worthy of the Times and the People on the Road of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics”. I have posted a translation of that article here.
It of course concludes by linking the achievements under Jiang to the current leadership:
At the turn of the century, Comrade Jiang Zemin thus looked back on the past and forward to the future: from the mid-20th century to the mid-21st century, all the struggle of the Chinese people is for the realization of the motherland’s prosperity and strength, the people’s affluence, and the great rejuvenation of the nation. “For this great historical cause, our Party has led the whole nation in struggle for 50 years and made tremendous progress; after another 50 years of struggle, it will surely be victoriously accomplished.” Now, there are less than 10 years until we basically realize socialist modernization, and only 20-some years until we realize the goal of building a great modern socialist country in all respects — time waits for no one, and we must seize the day. Let us unite even more closely around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, comprehensively implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, deeply study and implement Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building, firm up confidence and carry on the struggle, and advance courageously toward the grand goal of building a great modern socialist country in all respects and realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation!
世纪之交，江泽民同志曾这样回顾过去、展望未来：从20世纪中叶到21世纪中叶，中国人民的一切奋斗是为了实现祖国的富强、人民的富裕和民族的伟大复兴。"这个历史伟业，我们党领导全国人民已经奋斗了五十年，取得了巨大进展，再经过五十年的奋斗，也必将胜利完成。"现在，距离基本实现社会主义现代化只有不到10年时间，距离实现全面建成社会主义现代化强国目标也只有20多年时间，时不我待、只争朝夕。让我们更加紧密地团结在以习近平同志为核心的党中央周围，全面贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想，深入学习贯彻习近平党建思想，坚定信心、接续奋斗，朝着全面建成社会主义现代化强国、实现中华民族伟大复兴的宏伟目标奋勇前进！
Ahead of the commemoration, the propaganda system released a twelve-part propaganda series on Jiang’s life that you can watch here on YouTube:
The series as expected aligns with the official biography of Jiang’s life and career. Perhaps the most surprising bit from the series was this screenshot:
Former Premier Zhu Rongji died on August 11 at the age of 98. His memorial service will be on August 18. Zhu has not been politically relevant for many years, and his death should not cause any issues for Xi and the leadership. There is a playbook for managing any outpouring of grief or reminiscences hinting at dissatisfaction with the current Era after the passing of a senior leader, and for the memorial service. The Party has recent practice in managing the deaths of retired Premiers, as Li Peng died at 90 in 2019 and Li Keqiang died at 68 in 2023. The People’s Daily treatment of the respective announcements is identical:
Zhu’s legacy is complicated, as he did much to push through economic reforms, and to join the WTO, but also pushed through policies that led to mass layoffs and did not improve the rural-urban divide. He definitely was not “China’s Gorbachev” as some of the more wishful foreigners once claimed. Here are some of the articles/posts on his passing that I found most interesting:
In banking policies and other areas, then, Zhu was no better or worse than other senior leaders in the Party. When it came time to choose between genuine reform and the pressing needs of the day, pressing needs almost always took priority.
However, many of us remember Zhu Rongji’s time as premier fondly not because he was a genuine reformer, but because he was eager to communicate with the outside world; and to the extent he could, shared with foreign leaders and thinkers his worries and hopes for China. Such candor made it possible for the world to imagine genuine partnership with China and even with its leaders.
Wen Jiabao is the last surviving retired Premier, at the relatively young age of 83.
Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington DC to meet President Trump is less than six weeks away, and as usual we are starting to see stories saying the PRC side is worried about a lack of progress in preparations for the meeting. On Saturday the South China Morning Post published an “exclusive” titled “China rattled by Trump White House chaos weeks ahead of Xi visit. It has happened before”:
This time, according to the sources, the anxiety runs deeper as the summit will take place on foreign soil.
One person with knowledge of the preparations said that no US official or agency had thus far assumed responsibility for organising the visit, leaving officials on both sides largely engaged in routine preparations without clear leadership…
Two people familiar with the thinking on the Chinese side suggested the issues appeared operational, logistical and optics-related, as neither side had high expectations of achieving anything substantive from the September summit.
Having minimal expectations for his visit is the correct approach. There no signs that the visit will not happen, but the two sides continue their tit-for-tat chipping away at the “understanding” between Xi and Trump. Among the announcements since the start of the “Beidaihe Break”: