Constitution Amendments; US-China Relations; Beijing And A US-DPRK Summit; Major Restructuring Of The Foreign Policy Apparatus; Progress In The Battle Against Pollution

The Constitutional amendments passed easily, as expected. Media focus has been on the term limit removal but the inclusion of language about the role of the Party, the Great Rejuvenation and Socialist core values may end up being at least as impactful.

The removal of distractions about a successor in the next several years will probably be beneficial to China's development in the near-term. Expect the country to continue its advance to its "great rejuvenation" as an increasingly confident competitor to the West and its system of alliances. Centralized leadership under Xi, with a stronger, more disciplined and omnipresent Communist Party apparatus, very likely helps the rejuvenation goal in the short-term, while increasing tensions and the risk of the conflict with the West.

Longer term things could get messy inside China if the succession issue is not properly handled, but assuming Xi stays healthy and sane for a couple of more decades the trends outlined above could continue for a whi…