CXMT IPO; Taxing offshore assets; Fang Xinghai; US-China; AI; Lula supports China-Mercosur deal

The July Politburo meeting should happen this week, and should include as part of its agenda “analyzing and studying the current economic situation, and deploying economic work for the second half of the year 分析研究当前经济形势”. The 2025 July meeting was on Wednesday, July 30th, and also announced the date for the Fourth Plenum.

And then on or around August 1 the top leaders will disappear from public for two weeks or so for the “Beidaihe Break”, even though we do not know if they all go to the seaside resort. Last year at this time there were lots of crazy rumors about Xi and possible coups; this year the rumor mill so far has been very quiet.

Today’s top items:

1. CXMT IPO - Hefei-based DRAM memory maker ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) has the second largest IPO in PRC history Monday. Its shares rose 466% on their first trading day, valuing Hefei state-owned entities’ combined 36.79% stake at more than RMB 1.2 trillion after roughly RMB 30 billion in investment over a decade.

2. Taxing…