December Politburo meeting and the imminent Central Economic Work Conference

The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) should meet later this week, so we may soon have some more clarity on priorities and policies for 2026.

The Politburo held its December meeting Monday, and the CEWC usually follows within days. In this post I have provided a full translation of the readout from today’s meeting, as well as some highlights.

The meeting starts with a positive appraisal of this year’s economic work and says, unsurprisingly, that “the major targets for economic and social development are set to be successfully achieved”:

The meeting held that this year is a significant year in the process of Chinese modernization. The CPC Central Committee, with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, has united and led the whole Party and the people of all ethnic groups across the country to rise to challenges and strive hard. By coordinating both domestic and international situations and implementing more proactive and effective macro policies, the major targets for economic and social development are set to be successfully achieved. China’s economic operation has been generally stable with steady progress; new quality productive forces have developed steadily; new steps have been taken in reform and opening up; positive progress has been made in defusing risks in key areas; the livelihood of the people has been more effectively guaranteed; and overall social stability has been maintained. Over the past five years, we have effectively responded to various shocks and challenges. China’s hard power in economy, technology, and national defense, as well as its soft power in culture, institutions, and diplomacy, have significantly improved. The “14th Five-Year Plan” is about to conclude satisfactorily, and a good start has been realized on the new journey toward the second centenary goal.

会议认为，今年是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年，以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利实现。我国经济运行总体平稳、稳中有进，新质生产力稳步发展，改革开放迈出新步伐，重点领域风险化解取得积极进展，民生保障更加有力，社会大局保持稳定。过去5年，我们有效应对各种冲击挑战，我国经济、科技、国防等硬实力和文化、制度、外交等软实力明显提升，“十四五”即将圆满收官，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。

The paragraph on principles for 2026 economic work includes a reminder for the US and other countries concerned about PRC trade practices that any deal is likely a tactical pause, as the meeting readout again says “we must better coordinate domestic economic work with international economic and trade struggles 斗争”:

The meeting emphasized that to do a good job in next year’s economic work, we must follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, deeply implement the spirit of the 20th CPC National Congress and the plenary sessions of the 20th Central Committee, and fully, accurately, and comprehensively apply the new development philosophy. We must accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, and adhere to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability. We must better coordinate domestic economic work with international economic and trade struggles, and better coordinate development and security. We will implement more proactive and effective macro policies, enhance the foresight, pertinence, and synergy of policies, continuously expand domestic demand, and optimize supply. We need to optimize increments and revitalize the stock, develop new quality productive forces in accordance with local conditions, advance the construction of a unified national market in depth, and continuously prevent and resolve risks in key areas. We must focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, promote the effective improvement of economic quality and reasonable growth of quantity, maintain social harmony and stability, and achieve a good start for the “15th Five-Year Plan.”

会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次全会精神，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，着力推动高质量发展，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，更好统筹发展和安全，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现“十五五”良好开局。

The April Politburo meeting also used the phrase “international economic and trade struggles [国际经贸斗争]” in the Chinese version of the readout, even as the official Xinhua English version of the readout softened it to “endeavors”. The abbreviated Xinhua English readout of today’s meeting also uses “better coordinate domestic economic work and endeavors in the international economic and trade arena”. As always, the original Chinese is the version that matters.

The absence of any specific mention of real estate or the stock market, as there was in the 2024 readout (stabilize the real estate and stock markets 稳住楼市股市), may be noteworthy. The stock market has performed very well over the last year so it may be less of an immediate concern, but the real estate market is far from stabilizing and so more policy support is needed if the leadership is sticking to its call to stabilize real estate.

The section on tasks for 2026 economic work starts with:

The meeting pointed out that next year’s economic work must persist in pursuing progress while ensuring stability and improving quality and efficiency. We will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, leverage the integrated effects of existing and incremental policies, increase the intensity of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, and practically enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance.

会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能

The similar section in the 2024 December Politburo meeting readout began with:

The meeting pointed out that next year, we must adhere to seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, maintaining integrity while innovating, establishing new before breaking old, systematic integration, and coordinated cooperation. We should implement more active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, enrich and improve the policy toolbox, strengthen counter-cyclical regulation beyond normal measures, implement a “combination punch” of policies, and improve the forward-looking, targeted, and effective nature of macro-control.

会议指出，明年要坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破，系统集成、协同配合，实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充实完善政策工具箱，加强超常规逆周期调节，打好政策“组合拳”，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性。

The key tasks for 2026 are:

1. Persist in domestic demand as the mainstay to build a strong domestic market 要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场

2. Persist in innovation-driven development to accelerate the cultivation and strengthening of new driving forces 坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能

3. Persist in tackling tough reforms to enhance the momentum and vitality of high-quality development 坚持改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力

4. Persist in opening up to the outside world to promote multi-field cooperation and mutual benefit 坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢

5. Persist in coordinated development to promote urban-rural integration and regional linkage 坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联动

6. Persist in the guidance of “dual carbon” goals to promote comprehensive green transition 坚持“双碳”引领，推动全面绿色转型

7. Persist in prioritizing people’s livelihood to strive to do more practical things for the masses 坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事

8. Persist in holding the bottom line to actively and prudently resolve risks in key areas 坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化解重点领域风险

The key tasks for 2025 from the 2024 December Politburo meeting readout were:

1. Vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all aspects. 要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。

2. Use technological innovation to lead the development of new productive forces and build a modern industrial system. 要以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，建设现代化产业体系。

3. Leverage the role of economic system reform and promote the implementation of landmark [标志性] reform measures. 要发挥经济体制改革牵引作用，推动标志性改革举措落地见效。

4. Expand high-level opening up and stabilize foreign trade and investment. 要扩大高水平对外开放，稳外贸、稳外资。

5. Effectively prevent and defuse risks in key areas and firmly hold the bottom line of preventing systemic risks. 要有效防范化解重点领域风险，牢牢守住不发生系统性风险底线。

6. Continuously consolidate and expand the achievements in poverty alleviation, coordinate the promotion of new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization, and promote integrated urban-rural development. 要持续巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果，统筹推进新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴，促进城乡融合发展。

7. Increase the implementation of regional strategies and enhance regional development vitality. 要加大区域战略实施力度，增强区域发展活力。

8. Coordinate the promotion of carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion and growth, and accelerate the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development. 要协同推进降碳减污扩绿增长，加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型。

9. Increase efforts to protect and improve people’s livelihoods and enhance people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security. 要加大保障和改善民生力度，增强人民群众获得感幸福感安全感。

We should have a bit more clarity later this week when we get the readout from the CEWC, and I think we should expect that whatever comes out of the CEWC is broadly consistent with the policy trajectory set at the recent Fourth Plenum. The leadership seems to believe that some of the more acute problems the system was facing in the summer of 2024 have been effectively addressed by the more aggressive policy response that began in September 2024. The placement of the task about resolving risks in the last spot this year, as opposed to the fifth spot last year may indicate confidence in progress in managing those risks.

Translation of the full readout: