Fourth Plenum communiqué; New CMC vice chair; US-China meetings; Nexperia mess; PRC AI in Global South
I hope you will join us Friday at 1PM ET for the latest episode of Sinocism Live. I will be talking about the Fourth Plenum and US-China relations with Chris Johnson. If you cannot make the live discussion, the recording will be online later Friday afternoon.
The Fourth Plenum concluded on Monday. There were no announced personnel moves at the Politburo level, but the meeting did approve General Zhang Shengmin as a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, replacing He Weidong. Zhang has been and remains secretary of the CMC Commission for Discipline Inspection. There were also no signs of Xi weakness, or any of the coup scenarios being pushed by Falun Gong and dissident accounts.
The Plenum Communiqué is a confident document. Now we wait for more details of the Proposals of the CPC Central Committee on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and Xi’s explainer. Xi and the Party have a plan “to secure decisive progress toward basically achieving socialist modernization”, and they are preparing for a long struggle with the US.
I have posted a bilingual version of the full Plenum Communiqueé here. Among the highlights:
Participants at the session gave a positive assessment of China’s major development achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), which has marked a momentous and extraordinary period in our country’s development. In the face of a complicated international landscape and the challenging domestic tasks of advancing reform, promoting development, and ensuring stability, the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core has united the entire Party and Chinese people of all ethnic groups and led them in meeting difficulties head-on and forging ahead with determination. This has allowed us to withstand the severe shocks from a once-in-a-century Covid-19 pandemic, respond effectively to many major risks and challenges, and secure significant new achievements in the cause of the Party and the country. With China reaching new heights in terms of economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities, and composite national strength, we have made solid new strides in advancing Chinese modernization and gotten off to a successful start on our new journey toward the Second Centenary Goal…
It was pointed out that socialist modernization can only be realized through a historical process of gradual and ongoing development. It requires the unremitting hard work of one generation after another. The period covered by the 15th Five-Year Plan will be critical in this process as we work to reinforce the foundations and push ahead on all fronts toward basically achieving socialist modernization by 2035. It will thus serve as a key link between the past and the future. In this period, China’s development environment will face profound and intricate changes.
At present, China remains in a phase of development where strategic opportunities exist alongside risks and challenges, while uncertainties and unforeseen factors are rising. Our economy is on solid foundations, demonstrating advantages in many areas, strong resilience, and great potential. The conditions and underlying trends supporting long-term growth remain unchanged. More and more, we are seeing the strengths of socialism with Chinese characteristics, China’s enormous market, its complete industrial system, and its abundant human resources all coming to the fore.
All of us in the Party must acquire a deep understanding of the decisive significance of establishing Comrade Xi Jinping’s core position on the Party Central Committee and in the Party as a whole and of establishing the guiding role of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era; become more conscious of the need to maintain political integrity, think in big-picture terms, follow the leadership core, and keep in alignment with the central Party leadership; stay confident in the path, theory, system, and culture of socialism with Chinese characteristics; and uphold Comrade Xi Jinping’s core position on the Party Central Committee and in the Party as a whole and uphold the Central Committee’s authority and its centralized, unified leadership…
We must continue to pursue economic development as our central task, with high-quality development as our main focus, reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force, meeting the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life as our fundamental goal, and full and rigorous Party self-governance as the fundamental underpinning for all our efforts. We must promote higher-quality economic growth while achieving an appropriate increase in economic output and make solid headway in promoting well-rounded personal development and common prosperity for all. All of this will allow us to secure decisive progress toward basically achieving socialist modernization.
At the session, the Central Committee established the following guiding principles for economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period: upholding the Party’s overall leadership; putting the people first; pursuing high-quality development; comprehensively deepening reform; promoting interplay between an efficient market and a well-functioning government; and ensuring both development and security.
The Central Committee also set the following major objectives for the 15th Five-Year Plan period: significant achievements in high-quality development; substantial improvements in scientific and technological self-reliance and strength; fresh breakthroughs in further deepening reform comprehensively; notable cultural and ethical progress across society; further improvements in quality of life; major new strides in advancing the Beautiful China Initiative; and further advances in strengthening the national security shield. Building on this, we will work hard for a further five years to see that by the year 2035 China’s economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities, national defense capabilities, composite national strength, and international influence will all be markedly stronger, that its per capita GDP will be on a par with that of a mid-level developed country, that its people will live better and happier lives, and that socialist modernization will be basically realized.
It was noted that we should build a modernized industrial system and reinforce the foundations of the real economy. To this end, we should keep our focus on the real economy, continue to pursue smart, green, and integrated development, and work faster to boost China’s strength in manufacturing, product quality, aerospace, transportation, and cyberspace…
It was stated that we should achieve greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology and steer the development of new quality productive forces. We must seize the historic opportunity presented by the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation to boost China’s strength in education, science and technology, and human resources in a well-coordinated manner. We should enhance the overall performance of China’s innovation system, raise our innovation capacity across the board, strive to take a leading position in scientific and technological development [抢占科技发展制高点 really is seize the commanding heights of scientific and technological development], and keep fostering new quality productive forces…
It was noted that we should build a robust domestic market and work faster to foster a new pattern of development. Guided by the strategy of expanding domestic demand, we should work toward improving living standards while increasing consumer spending and coordinate investments in physical assets and human capital. We should see that new demand drives new supply, that new supply helps create fresh demand, and that positive interactions are fostered between consumption and investment and between supply and demand…
It was stated that we should refine China’s regional economic layout and promote coordinated regional development. We should give full play to the synergies between the coordinated regional development strategy, major regional strategies, the functional zoning strategy, and the new urbanization strategy, improve the distribution of major productive forces, and ensure that key regions play their role as growth poles.
The communique also mentioned what they need to do to hit this year’s targets:
Participants at the session carried out an analysis of the present situation and the tasks we face. It was highlighted that we must remain firmly focused on accomplishing this year’s targets for economic and social development. To this end, we must continue to implement the decisions and plans of the Central Committee through targeted efforts. We must work to stabilize employment, enterprise operations, markets, and expectations and keep the fundamentals of the economy stable, so as to consolidate and strengthen the momentum for economic recovery and growth. We should ensure that our macro policies continue to play an effective role and intensify their implementation as necessary. We should fully implement assistance policies for enterprises, press ahead with special initiatives to boost consumption, guarantee the three priorities including people’s basic wellbeing, payment of salaries, and normal government functioning at the primary level, and defuse local government debt risks through active and prudent measures…
We should devote greater efforts to stabilizing and expanding employment, while promoting stable employment for key groups. We should ramp up efforts to address wage arrears, improve basic public services, and work harder to resolve the pressing difficulties and problems that concern the people most.
The biggest surprise from the Fourth Plenum may have been the number of absent Central Committee members. 168 members and 147 alternate members of the Central Committee attended the session; when this Central Committee was formed in 2022 there were 205 full members and 171 alternate members. The PLA contingent looks to have taken the biggest hit, as this table from @cnpoliwatch shows:
Of 33 full generals who are members, 22 did not attend the Plenum, 8 have been officially dismissed and 14 are “missing”. Eight alternate members from the PLA who were in line to replace Central Committee members were skipped over, including Fang Yongxiang, director of the Central Military Commission General Office. Something is very rotten in the PLA.
The @cnpoliwatch also posted a seating chart from the meeting here.
Summary of today’s top items:
1. Fourth Plenum personnel moves
2. Fourth Plenum discussion - I have posted a bilingual version of the Plenum Communiqué here. The Central Committee will hold a press conference at 10AM Beijing time Friday to introduce the communique. The October 24 People’s Daily carries an editorial - Strive to Open Up New Prospects in Building Chinese-Style Modernization - 奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面 on the Plenum that sums up the confidence:
Comprehensively building a modern socialist country carries the longstanding aspirations and expectations of the Chinese nation and is the CPC’s consistent theme of striving. Looking back on the extraordinary and remarkable course of development during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, and faced with a complex and volatile international landscape and arduous domestic tasks in reform, development, and stability, we—under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee—met challenges head-on and forged ahead, using the certainty of high-quality development to counter various uncertainties. The Party’s creativity, cohesion, and combat effectiveness have been notably enhanced; China’s economic strength, scientific and technological strength, and overall national strength have leapt to new levels; the main goals and tasks of the “14th Five-Year Plan” are about to be successfully completed; Chinese modernization has taken new solid steps; and the new journey toward the Second Centenary Goal has made a good start. The fundamental reasons for the new and major achievements in the Party’s and the state’s undertakings are the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core at the helm and the scientific guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. Practice has fully proved that the “Two Establishes” are of decisive significance for us to meet various risks and challenges and to advance the cause of Chinese-style modernization.
3. US says Trump and Xi will meet next Thursday - The White House told reporters today that the two leaders will meet next Thursday in South Korea. The PRC side has not confirmed the meeting. The Ministry of Commerce did confirm today that Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet with the US trade negotiators in Malaysia this weekend.
4. PRC reacts to US sanctions on Russian oil - Reuters reported that PRC “state oil majors have suspended purchases of seaborne Russian oil after the United States imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil”. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said Thursday that “China opposes unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law or authorization of the UN Security Council”, and it is unlikely the PRC will abide by the US sanctions once they figure out ways around them.
5. The Dutch may have blown global ex-China auto production - The Netherlands’ seizure of chipmaker Nexperia has caused a crisis in the auto industry, as multiple carmakers around the world warn of impending production challenges because suppliers no longer have access to Nexperia chips. Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof told reporters today that “Nexperia is about mismanagement by the CEO, that’s what it’s about, it’s not a measure directed against China”, but that is little comfort to the automakers now facing shortages.
6. PRC open source AI in the Global South - Bloomberg has a long and unsurprising story titled How China’s DeepSeek Is Beating Out OpenAI and Google in Africa. DeepSeek is more than good enough for most users, the price is right, and it integrates with existing PRC IT infrastructure in those countries. Most of the world cannot afford expensive Nvidia chips and US AI models. As I wrote back in March:
A “research team” at the Institute of Technology and Cybersecurity of the MSS-affiliated China Institute of Contemporary International Relations published an article on the recent US moves to rescind the AI diffusion rule and make massive chip sales into the Middle East. I have published a full translation of The U.S. Enters the “Trump 2.0 Era” of AI Containment Against China 现代院：美国对华AI遏压进入“特朗普2.0时代” here.
This last paragraph in the April Politburo study session readout I think is a decent view into how the top leadership sees the global competition and opportunities around AI:
Xi Jinping emphasized that AI can become an international public good that benefits all humanity. We must vigorously engage in international cooperation on AI, help Global South countries enhance their technological capabilities, and contribute China’s efforts toward bridging the global intelligence divide. Efforts should be made to promote greater alignment and coordination among all parties in terms of development strategies, governance rules, and technical standards, and to form a global governance framework and standards with extensive consensus as early as possible.
China now has an excellent open-source LLM it can offer the vast majority of the world that does not really care about Chinese data collection and narrative shaping, and they can offer it for free. It could actually turn out to be much more powerful in the information domain than almost any other channel/platform they have.
With DeepSeek, the Chinese leadership may see an opportunity to mount a global version of AI “encircling the cities from the countryside 农村包围城市” against the US, which would have all sorts of economic, information and geopolitical effects, probably many in the PRC’s favor.
And the PRC has many more excellent open-source models than DeepSeek; the one most likely to proliferate is probably Alibaba’s Qwen.
Thanks for reading, and I hope to see many of you on tomorrow’s Sinocism Live with Chris Johnson.
1. Fourth Plenum personnel moves
Xi Jinping’s Purges Shrink Ranks of China’s Communist Elite—and Boost His Power - WSJ
The plenum in Beijing was attended by 168 full members and 147 nonvoting alternates, according to an official communiqué issued after the conclave ended Thursday, marking the lowest participation rate since at least the late 1970s. The Central Committee had 205 full members and 171 alternates when its current five-year term started in 2022.
China Plenum Turnout Hits Lowest in Decades as Xi Widens Purges - Bloomberg
Reasons for an official to miss such a session include illness, death and a fall from grace. After accounting for one fatality and 10 cadres already kicked out of the party, there were still 26 officials who skipped the four-day huddle in Beijing without explanation...
Separately, only 147 out of 167 alternate members attended the gathering. Four were officially expelled, leaving another 16 unaccounted for.
Another curious twist comes from the elevation of alternate members to the Central Committee. By rule, the body is expected to move down the list in order, but some names were skipped in the promotion without explanation.
Those skipped are:
Wang Liyan, vice commander of Rocket Force
Wang Kangping, commander of Joint Logistics Support Force
Fang Yongxiang, director of Central Military Commission General Office
Shi Zhenglu, commander of the Northern Theater Command’s Ground Force
Ding Xingnong, deputy political commissar of Rocket Force
Wang Jiayi, deputy education minister
Fang Hongwei, party chief of Xi’an, Shaanxi province
Shi Yugang, deputy chief of Yunnan’s political advisory body
China has promoted Zhang Shengmin, the military’s anti-graft chief, to vice-chair of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), which is headed by President Xi Jinping.
And Zhang Fengzhong, a senior general with the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, has been placed under investigation for corruption, according to a communique of the fourth plenary session of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, which concluded on Thursday. Zhang Fengzhong was an alternate member of the Central Committee.
The notice of the major reshuffle announced the promotion of Zhang Shengmin, 67, who is secretary of the CMC’s Commission for Discipline Inspection, overseeing anti-corruption efforts within China’s armed forces.
He served in a group army in the northwestern province of Shaanxi for many years.
From 2004 to 2015, he worked within China’s nuclear forces, the Second Artillery Corps – the former name of the Rocket Force. In his last year there, he was director of its political department, a key position overseeing ideological and personnel affairs.
Veteran Chinese general Zhang Shengmin promoted in reshuffle after anti-corruption purge | Reuters
“There is no one better to succeed as the military’s new political and personnel chief than its reigning discipline tsar,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub.
Before joining the CMC in 2017, Zhang served for many years in the Second Artillery Force, now the PLA Rocket Force. He also served in the CMC’s General Logistics Department.
Both were key targets of Xi’s anti-corruption drive in the military, but Zhang emerged unscathed while colleagues around him fell.
“His personal loyalty to Xi had been thoroughly vetted during the last two years of purges against the Second Artillery Force, a major corruption hotbed,” said Sung.Zhang also hails from Xi’s ancestral province of Shaanxi, where the leader has deep family and political networks. This likely ensured an extra layer of trust in Zhang, added Sung.
Zhang Shenmin’s official bio - 中国共产党中央军事委员会副主席张升民简历
张升民，男，汉族，1958年8月生，陕西武功人，1978年2月入伍，1979年7月加入中国共产党，中央党校研究生学历。
现任中共中央军事委员会副主席，中华人民共和国中央军事委员会委员，中央纪律检查委员会副书记，中央军委纪律检查委员会书记兼中央军委监察委员会主任、党委书记，火箭军上将军衔
My latest #ThoughtoftheDayonChina: My three key takeaways from the Fourth Plenum of the Communist Party of China, concluding today - Wang Xiangwei
1–The rampant speculation by self-proclaimed China experts in the lead-up to the plenum has proven unfounded. The communiqué once again underscores Xi Jinping’s authority.
2–The plenum ratified the expulsion of 11 full Central Committee members and four alternates, including eight generals from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). In a striking contrast, none of the 11 alternates elevated to full membership today represent the PLA. Traditionally, such promotions follow a fixed sequence based on prior vote tallies from a preordained list. Notably, at least four PLA alternates were bypassed, including Fang Yongxiang, director of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission.
3–The communiqué introduces a phrase poised to ignite vigorous debate in the near term: “to advance the great cause of national reunification.” This wording was conspicuously absent from the Third Plenum’s communiqué.
2. Fourth Plenum discussion
23+ minute CCTV Evening News report Thursday, reading the Communique while showing scenes from the Plenum
People’s Daily Editorial on October 24: Strive to Open Up New Prospects in Building Chinese-Style Modernization - 人民日报社论：奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面
Unite hur hearts and gather Our strength, continue striving. On October 23, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China successfully concluded. Held on the new journey toward the Second Centenary Goal, this was a highly important meeting. It is of great significance for further uniting the mighty strength of the whole Party and the people of all ethnic groups across the nation, and for rallying joint efforts to comprehensively advance national rejuvenation and the building of a strong country through Chinese-style modernization.
凝心聚力，接续奋斗。10月23日，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议胜利闭幕。这是在向第二个百年奋斗目标进军的新征程上举行的一次十分重要的会议，对于进一步凝聚起全党全国各族人民磅礴力量，为以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业而团结奋斗，具有重大意义。
The plenary heard and discussed the work report delivered by General Secretary Xi Jinping on behalf of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, and fully affirmed the new achievements made over the past year as the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core united and led hundreds of millions of people to forge ahead with courage and innovation. Focusing on the Proposals for the “15th Five-Year Plan,” the session aimed to better leverage the strategic guiding role of national development planning and to drive major breakthroughs in the strategic tasks that concern the overall picture of Chinese-style modernization. An important outcome of the session was the deliberation and adoption of the Proposals of the CPC Central Committee on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development— a programmatic document to ensure decisive progress toward basically achieving socialist modernization.
全会听取和讨论了习近平总书记受中央政治局委托所作的工作报告，充分肯定一年多来以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领亿万人民勇毅前行、开拓创新取得的新成就。全会重点研究“十五五”规划建议问题，旨在更好发挥国家发展规划的战略导向作用，推动事关中国式现代化全局的战略任务取得重大突破。全会的一项重要成果，是审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》，这是确保基本实现社会主义现代化取得决定性进展的纲领性文件。
The “15th Five-Year Plan” period is a critical stage for laying a solid foundation and making an all-out push toward basically achieving socialist modernization. The adopted Proposals accurately grasp the historical position of the Party’s and the country’s undertakings during this period, deeply analyze the profound and complex changes in China’s development environment, and provide top-level design and strategic planning for the next five years. The Proposals adhere to goal-orientation and problem-orientation, uphold systems thinking, further advance comprehensive deepening of reform, and expand opening-up. The guiding principles are scientific and precise, the main goals are clear and explicit, and the tasks and measures are pragmatic and realistic. This is yet another full mobilization and top-level deployment for riding the momentum to continue advancing Chinese-style modernization. It reflects the historical initiative of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core to unite and lead the whole Party and the people of all ethnic groups to write new chapters in the twin miracles of rapid economic development and long-term social stability, and to strive to open up new prospects in building Chinese-style modernization. It will have major and far-reaching impacts on the development of the Party and the country.
“十五五”时期是基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。全会通过的《建议》，准确把握“十五五”时期党和国家事业发展所处历史方位，深入分析我国发展环境面临的深刻复杂变化，对未来5年发展作出顶层设计和战略擘画。《建议》坚持目标导向和问题导向，坚持系统思维，坚持进一步全面深化改革，坚持扩大对外开放，指导方针科学精准，主要目标清晰明确，任务举措求真务实。这是乘势而上、接续推进中国式现代化建设的又一次总动员、总部署，体现了以习近平同志为核心的党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民续写经济快速发展和社会长期稳定两大奇迹新篇章、奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面的历史主动，必将对党和国家事业发展产生重大而深远的影响。
Comprehensively building a modern socialist country carries the longstanding aspirations and expectations of the Chinese nation and is the CPC’s consistent theme of striving. Looking back on the extraordinary and remarkable course of development during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, and faced with a complex and volatile international landscape and arduous domestic tasks in reform, development, and stability, we—under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee—met challenges head-on and forged ahead, using the certainty of high-quality development to counter various uncertainties. The Party’s creativity, cohesion, and combat effectiveness have been notably enhanced; China’s economic strength, scientific and technological strength, and overall national strength have leapt to new levels; the main goals and tasks of the “14th Five-Year Plan” are about to be successfully completed; Chinese modernization has taken new solid steps; and the new journey toward the Second Centenary Goal has made a good start. The fundamental reasons for the new and major achievements in the Party’s and the state’s undertakings are the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core at the helm and the scientific guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. Practice has fully proved that the “Two Establishes” are of decisive significance for us to meet various risks and challenges and to advance the cause of Chinese-style modernization.
全面建设社会主义现代化国家寄托着中华民族的夙愿和期盼，是中国共产党一以贯之的奋斗主题。回望“十四五”时期极不寻常、极不平凡的发展历程，面对错综复杂的国际形势和艰巨繁重的国内改革发展稳定任务，在党中央坚强领导下，我们迎难而上、砥砺奋进，以高质量发展的确定性应对各种不确定性，党的创造力、凝聚力、战斗力明显提高，我国经济实力、科技实力、综合国力跃上新台阶，“十四五”主要目标任务即将胜利完成，中国式现代化迈出新的坚实步伐，第二个百年奋斗目标新征程实现良好开局。党和国家事业取得新的重大成就，根本在于以习近平同志为核心的党中央领航掌舵，在于习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想科学指引。实践充分证明，“两个确立”对于我们应对各种风险挑战、推进中国式现代化建设具有决定性意义。
Achieving socialist modernization is a historically progressive process that advances by stages. The plenary pointed out that the “15th Five-Year Plan” period holds a crucial, linking role in the process of basically achieving socialist modernization— a judgment based on the historical tasks this period must shoulder. The entire Party must coordinate the overall strategy of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the profound changes unseen in a century in the world, accurately grasp the development trends of our country over the next five years, maintain strategic resolve, build firm confidence in victory, proactively recognize, respond to, and shape changes, and be ready and able to engage in struggle. We must be courageous in facing severe tests—be they strong winds and waves or even raging storms—and, with a spirit of historical initiative, overcome difficulties, guard against risks, and meet challenges. We should concentrate our efforts on running our own affairs well and continue to propel the grand cause of Chinese modernization forward.
实现社会主义现代化是一个阶梯式递进、不断发展进步的历史过程。全会提出，“十五五”时期在基本实现社会主义现代化进程中具有承前启后的重要地位，这是根据“十五五”时期应承担的历史任务作出的判断。全党要统筹中华民族伟大复兴战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局，准确把握未来5年我国发展大势，保持战略定力，增强必胜信心，积极识变应变求变，敢于斗争、善于斗争，勇于面对风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验，以历史主动精神克难关、战风险、迎挑战，集中力量办好自己的事，继续把中国式现代化的宏伟事业推向前进。
The 20th CPC National Congress set the central task for the Party in the new era and new journey, and made a “two-step” strategic arrangement for building a great modern socialist country in all respects. Grasping the basic positioning and phased requirements of the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, the plenary made systematic planning and strategic deployments for economic and social development over the next five years. In earnestly studying, implementing, and carrying out the spirit of the plenary, we must focus on the central task and keep our original aspiration and founding mission firmly in mind; fully, accurately, and comprehensively implement the new development philosophy; uphold the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability; coordinate efforts to advance the “Five-Sphere Integrated Plan” and the “Four-Pronged Comprehensive Strategy”; accelerate the establishment of a new development pattern; adhere to economic development as the central task; take high-quality development as the overarching theme; take reform and innovation as the fundamental driving force; take meeting the people’s ever-growing needs for a better life as the fundamental purpose; and take exercising full and rigorous self-governance over the Party as the fundamental guarantee. We will promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy, advance well-rounded human development and make solid progress toward common prosperity for all, thereby laying a more solid foundation for basically achieving socialist modernization on schedule党的二十大确定了新时代新征程党的中心任务，作出了全面建成社会主义现代化强国“两步走”战略安排。全会把握“十五五”时期基本定位和阶段性要求，对未来5年经济社会发展作出系统谋划和战略部署。认真学习贯彻落实全会精神，我们要围绕中心任务、牢记初心使命，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，统筹推进“五位一体”总体布局，协调推进“四个全面”战略布局，加快构建新发展格局，坚持以经济建设为中心，以推动高质量发展为主题，以改革创新为根本动力，以满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要为根本目的，以全面从严治党为根本保障，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，推动人的全面发展、全体人民共同富裕迈出坚实步伐，为如期基本实现社会主义现代化奠定更加坚实的基础。
Upholding and strengthening the Party’s overall leadership is the fundamental guarantee for advancing Chinese-style modernization. The plenary made clear the principles that must be followed in economic and social development during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, placing at the very top the adherence to the Party’s overall leadership. We must resolutely uphold the authority and centralized, unified leadership of the CPC Central Committee, and integrate the Party’s leadership throughout all fields and the entire process of economic and social development. We must enhance the Party’s capacity and competence in leading economic and social development, firmly grasping important principles such as putting the people first, pursuing high-quality development, comprehensively deepening reform, combining an efficient market with a competent government, and coordinating development and security. This will promote sustained and healthy economic development and all-round social progress, enable the fruits of modernization to benefit all the people more fully and more fairly, and provide the most reliable, profound, and enduring source of strength for Chinese-style modernization.
坚持和加强党的全面领导是推进中国式现代化的根本保证。全会明确了“十五五”时期经济社会发展必须遵循的原则，排在首位的就是坚持党的全面领导。要坚决维护党中央权威和集中统一领导，把党的领导贯穿经济社会发展各方面全过程。要提高党领导经济社会发展能力和水平，牢牢把握坚持人民至上、坚持高质量发展、坚持全面深化改革、坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合、坚持统筹发展和安全等重要原则，推动经济持续健康发展和社会全面进步，让现代化建设成果更多更公平惠及全体人民，使中国式现代化拥有最可靠、最深厚、最持久的力量源泉。
Realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is an unprecedented cause. To turn the blueprint for economic and social development during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, as drawn by the plenary, into reality, the whole Party and the people of all ethnic groups across the nation must think with one mind and work with one heart. Let us rally more closely around the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, fully implement Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, gain a deep understanding of the decisive significance of the “Two Establishes,” strengthen the “Four Consciousnesses,” bolster the “Four Confidences,” and achieve the “Two Upholds.” Let us seize every minute, strive forward with vigor, and deliver even more outstanding answers on the new journey of Chinese modernization!
实现中华民族伟大复兴是前无古人的伟大事业。把全会描绘的“十五五”时期经济社会发展蓝图变为现实，全党全国各族人民要心往一处想，劲往一处使。让我们更加紧密地团结在以习近平同志为核心的党中央周围，全面贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想，深刻领悟“两个确立”的决定性意义，增强“四个意识”、坚定“四个自信”、做到“两个维护”，只争朝夕、奋发进取，在中国式现代化新征程上交出更为优异的答卷！
张玉卓、刘宁、郑栅洁、殷勇、周雷、崔玉忠、周祖翼，出镜谈学习贯彻四中全会精神
Zheng Shanjie, Member of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the National Development and Reform Commission: “With a strong sense of political responsibility and mission, the NDRC will earnestly study and deeply understand the General Secretary’s important speech and the spirit of the plenary session, stay anchored to the main goals and strategic tasks for economic and social development during the ‘15th Five-Year Plan,’ take proactive action, and implement them to the letter with solid effectiveness. At the same time, we will conscientiously align ourselves with the Proposals, extensively solicit and incorporate the wisdom of the people, grassroots experience, and social expectations, and move swiftly to draft the outline of the ‘15th Five-Year Plan.’”...
中央委员、国家发展改革委主任 郑栅洁：国家发展改革委将以高度的政治责任感和使命感，认真学习、深刻领会总书记的重要讲话和全会的精神，锚定“十五五”时期经济社会发展的主要目标和战略任务，主动作为、不折不扣、有力有效地抓好落实，同时我们将认真对标对表建议，广泛地征求吸收群众的智慧、基层的经验、社会的期盼，抓紧起草“十五五”规划纲要草案。
Zhou Lei, attending representative and Vice President of QuantumCTek Co., Ltd.: “My work focuses on quantum science research and industrialization. In the ‘15th Five-Year Plan,’ I see quantum technology being advanced as a new growth driver. That points the way forward for our subsequent development in quantum technology and gives us tremendous confidence. I believe that under General Secretary Xi Jinping’s helm, we have the confidence and motivation to build autonomous and controllable products that better serve our economic and social development and help the drive to build China into a science and technology powerhouse take deeper root.”
列席代表、科大国盾量子技术股份有限公司副总裁 周雷：我所从事的是量子科技研究和产业化发展方向，在“十五五”规划当中，我看到量子科技是放到了新的经济增长点的角度进行推动的，那对于我们后期在量子科技方面的发展指明了发展方向，同时也给予我们巨大的信心。我相信在习近平总书记掌舵领航下，我们有信心和动力形成我们自主可控的产品，更好地服务于我们的经济社会发展，助力我们科技强国建设走深走实。
A Quick Reading of the CCP Four Plenary Session Communiqués
It is the first time the idea that “closely integrating investment in physical assets and investment in people” has been proposed. It serves as a golden key to understanding China’s development thinking for the next five years.
In plain terms, over the next five years, the country will no longer rely solely on massive spending on infrastructure and real estate — investment in things — to drive economic growth. Instead, it aims to tie together spending on construction with investment in people — in education, skills, and social protection — making the two move forward in tandem.
Caixin 四中全会明确“十五五”发展目标：高质量发展取得显著成效_经济频道_财新网
Building a strong domestic market remains the third major task. The plenary session reiterated “upholding the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand,” and introduced new phrasing in its specific exposition: closely integrate improving people’s livelihood with promoting consumption, and investment in physical assets with investment in people; lead new supply with new demand and create new demand with new supply; promote virtuous interactions between consumption and investment, as well as between supply and demand; and enhance the endogenous driving force and reliability of the domestic economic circulation. This means that during the “15th Five-Year Plan,” expanding domestic demand will likely place greater emphasis on the coordinated promotion of investment and consumption and on strengthening the alignment between supply and demand.
建设强大国内市场，仍然是第三大任务。全会重申“坚持扩大内需这个战略基点”，在具体阐述上有了新提法：坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性。这意味着“十五五”扩内需或将更加重视投资与消费的协调促进、增强供需适配性。
When discussing expanding domestic demand, the plenary also stressed “resolutely removing chokepoints and blockages that hinder the building of a unified national market.” At the sixth meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission held on July 1, “governing enterprises’ cut-throat low-price competition in accordance with laws and regulations, guiding enterprises to improve product quality, and promoting the orderly exit of outdated production capacity” was placed at the top of the priorities for advancing the building of a unified national market in depth. Policies aimed at “countering involution” may continue to be advanced during the “15th Five-Year Plan.”
在谈及扩大内需时，全会还强调“坚决破除阻碍全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点”。7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议上，“依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出”被置于纵深推进全国统一大市场建设要聚焦的重点难点之首。“反内卷”政策或在“十五五”期间继续推进。
Regarding ensuring and improving people’s livelihoods, the plenary proposed adhering to the principles of doing our best within our capacity, strengthening universal, basic, and safety-net livelihood programs, addressing the people’s pressing difficulties and anxieties, and unblocking channels for social mobility. In addition to improving the income distribution system, enhancing the social security system, and steadily advancing equal access to basic public services, a new item was added: “promoting the high-quality development of the real estate sector.”
对保障和改善民生，全会提出，坚持尽力而为、量力而行，加强普惠性、基础性、兜底性民生建设，解决好人民群众急难愁盼问题，畅通社会流动渠道。除了完善收入分配制度、健全社会保障体系、稳步推进基本公共服务均等化，还新增了“推动房地产高质量发展”。
Since 2021, the real estate industry has experienced a downturn. About half of Chinese households’ wealth is concentrated in real estate, and falling housing prices have eroded residents’ wealth, becoming a major factor constraining consumption and improvements in living standards. During the “15th Five-Year Plan,” whether the real estate market can be cleared of excesses and housing price expectations stabilized— and how to build a new development model for the sector— will not only affect the pace of economic growth but also bear directly on ensuring and improving people’s livelihoods.
2021年以来房地产行业出现下滑，中国居民部门大约一半的财富集中在房地产上，房价下跌使居民财富缩水，成为制约消费和生活水平提高的重要因素。“十五五”期间，能否推动房地产市场出清、稳定房价预期，如何构建房地产发展新模式，不仅影响经济增速，也事关保障和改善民生。
四中全会提出推动房地产高质量发展，释放了哪些重要信号？ | 界面新闻
The reference of “high-quality development of the housing” market in the plenum communique is indicative of a fundamental shift in which housing will be tied to people’s specific needs ( including affordable housing) and scale is no longer a guiding principle, multiple analysts told Jiemian News. Li Yujia, a housing analyst, said that under this new shift the supply of housing should tailor to various people’s needs, rather than “fiscal needs” or investment needs from the local governments.
3. US says Trump and Xi will meet next Thursday
商务部新闻发言人就中美经贸磋商有关问题答记者问_中国经济网——国家经济门户
A reporter asked: Recently, Vice Premier He Lifeng held a video call with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Greer. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of China–U.S. economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. Does the Ministry of Commerce have any further information?
有记者问：近日，何立峰副总理与美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔进行视频通话，双方同意尽快举行新一轮中美经贸磋商，请问商务部是否有进一步消息？
Answer: As agreed by both China and the United States, He Lifeng, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will lead a delegation to Malaysia from October 24 to 27 to hold economic and trade consultations with the U.S. side. Following the important consensuses reached in the phone calls between the two heads of state since the beginning of this year, the two sides will consult on major issues in China–U.S. economic and trade relations.
答：经中美双方商定，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理何立峰将于10月24日至27日率团赴马来西亚与美方举行经贸磋商。双方将按照今年以来两国元首历次通话重要共识，就中美经贸关系中的重要问题进行磋商。
Trump, Xi to Meet Next Thursday on Sidelines of APEC Summit - Bloomberg
The Trump-Xi meeting will cap a trip to Asia that will also see the US president stop in Malaysia and Japan. Leavitt said the president is scheduled to depart Washington on Friday evening and is expected to arrive in Malaysia — his first stop on the trip — early Sunday morning, local time, for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit. Trump is slated to hold a bilateral meeting with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and attend an ASEAN leaders dinner on Sunday evening, she said.
The president will depart on Monday for Tokyo, ahead of a Tuesday meeting with new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Trump is scheduled to fly to South Korea on Wednesday, where he will meet with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, deliver a keynote address at the APEC CEO luncheon and participate in a working dinner with other leaders attending the summit.
U.S. to Investigate China’s Compliance With 2020 Trade Deal - The New York Times
The investigation, which could be announced as soon as Friday, would be filed by the United States Trade Representative under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the administration to investigate the trade practices of foreign countries.
The inquiry could pave the way for more tariffs on Chinese imports, although no such decision has been made. Such investigations have historically taken months to perform. A spokeswoman for the Office of the United States Trade Representative declined to comment.
Dim Sums: Agricultural Markets in China: U.S. Soy Exports to Non-China Destinations up 45% so far
Analysis of USDA export inspection data for September through October 16--the first 7 weeks of the 2025/26 market year--shows that exports are overall down -2.5 million metric tons from the same period in 2024. Sifting through the USDA database shows that exports to China during this period last year were 4.2 mmt versus 0 this year. Exports to non-China destinations were 3.8 mmt in the first 7 weeks of MY2024/25, but they increased to 5.5 mmt so far in 2025/26. That’s a year-on-year increase of 1.7 mmt, or 45%, but plugs less than half of the 4.2-mmt hole left by China’s snub of U.S. beans.
China’s Soybean Feud With Trump Leaves US Farmers With Huge Crops and Few Buyers - Bloomberg
For some, the combination of trade war, inflation and low commodity prices brings echoes of past tough eras on American farms. Illinois grower John Bartman likens the situation to the 1980s when he was growing up — a time when inflation, high interest rates and low exports led to a full-blown farming crisis. Many families dropped out of the industry altogether. “I’ve basically spent my lifetime studying and looking at the economic cycles and what happens to farmers, and what happens during a poor farm economy,” said Bartman, 47. “And that’s what’s happening here.”
4. PRC reacts to US sanctions on Russian oil
Exclusive: China state oil majors suspend Russian oil buys due to sanctions, sources say | Reuters
Chinese state oil majors have suspended purchases of seaborne Russian oil after the United States imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Moscow’s two biggest oil companies, multiple trade sources said on Thursday...
Chinese national oil companies PetroChina, Sinopec, CNOOC and Zhenhua Oil will refrain from dealing in seaborne Russian oil at least in the short-term due to concern over sanctions, the sources said.
The four companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
While China imports roughly 1.4 million barrels of Russian oil per day by sea, most of that is bought by independent refiners, including small operators known as teapots, although estimates of purchases by state refiners vary widely.
Financial Times - Trump’s Russian oil sanctions hit India and China’s imports
A person who works closely with the largest Chinese state-backed oil companies and Indian refineries said they had all paused purchases following the imposition of US sanctions, though smaller independent Chinese refiners would continue to import Russian crude.
Beijing has requested that several Chinese state oil majors suspend purchases of seaborne Russian oil following US and European sanctions, according to a Chinese trader with one of the state-owned groups. But the trader said the pause may only prove to be temporary.
China ‘helps’ Russia and is ‘not interested’ in Ukraine winning, Zelenskyy says | Euronews
In his last question at the press conference, Volodymyr Zelenskyy sharply criticised China for its long-standing support for Russia’s full-scale invasion.
“China is a very difficult and really complicated question,” he said. “We don’t have a permanent dialogue with XI Jinping. We had some conversations, (and) he told me he won’t sell weapons (to Russia).”
“China helps Russia. It doesn’t help Ukraine and is not interested in our victory and Russia losing,” he added.
Zelenskyy said that all countries dealing with Russia, including Europe and the US, will “understand what’s going on” between Kyiv and Beijing.
He said China is not interested in making Ukraine “strong” and fostering “unity between the US and Europe”.
“They’re not interested in a weak Russia,” he said. “That’s why they help Russia.”
China opposes EU listing Chinese enterprises in Russia sanctions package-Xinhua
China urges the European Union (EU) to immediately cease listing Chinese enterprises in the EU’s 19th package of sanctions against Russia, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce said Thursday in response to media inquiries.
Despite China’s repeated negotiations and dissuasion efforts, the EU has refused to change course, once again listing Chinese enterprises in its 19th package of sanctions against Russia, and imposing sanctions on large Chinese oil refineries and traders for the first time, the spokesperson said, expressing China’s strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to these moves.
China has consistently opposed unilateral sanctions that lack a legal basis in international law or the authorization of the United Nations. The EU’s actions run counter to the spirit of the consensus reached between the leaders of China and the EU, seriously undermine bilateral economic and trade cooperation, and impact global energy security, the spokesperson said.
China urged the EU to immediately stop listing Chinese enterprises in such sanctions, and warned it against going further down the wrong path. China will take necessary measures to resolutely safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises, as well as its energy security and economic development, the spokesperson noted.
AFP: The EU on Wednesday agreed to impose new sanctions on Russia over the war in Ukraine. The EU has also targeted new companies in several countries, including 12 in China and three in India, which they say are helping Russia circumvent Western sanctions on technology transfers, particularly in drone production. What is the Foreign Ministry’s comment on this?
Guo Jiakun: China strongly deplores and firmly rejects the EU’s repeated illicit unilateral sanctions against Chinese companies over Russia-related issues. China has lodged protests with the EU side.
We have stressed on multiple occasions that China did not create the Ukraine crisis, nor is China a party to it. China is committed to promoting talks for peace. We never provide lethal weapons to any party to the conflict, and strictly control the exports of dual-use items. Most countries, including EU members and the U.S., continue to trade with Russia. The EU is in no position to point fingers at the normal exchanges and cooperation between Chinese and Russian companies. We urge the EU to stop directing the issue at China and harming China’s interests. This is not conducive to the sound and stable development of China-EU relations. China will do what is necessary to firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests…
Reuters: U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday imposed Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia targeting Russia’s largest oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft. Does the Foreign Ministry have any comment on the measures?
Guo Jiakun: China opposes unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law or authorization of the UN Security Council.
5. The Dutch may have blown global ex-China auto production
Dutch say takeover of chipmaker Nexperia ‘not against China’ - AFP
The Netherlands’ seizure of Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia was not a “measure against China”, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof said Thursday as trade tensions spike between Europe and Beijing.
Dutch officials invoked a Cold War-era law in late September to effectively take control of Nexperia, citing national security concerns, as chip manufacturing increasingly becomes a focus of geopolitical tensions.
The company says Beijing has, in turn, banned it from exporting certain goods from China since October 4.
“Nexperia is about mismanagement by the CEO, that’s what it’s about, it’s not a measure directed against China,” Schoof told reporters before meeting fellow EU leaders in Brussels with trade on the agenda.
The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, whose members include Nissan, Toyota, Honda and Mazda, said on Thursday it had received a warning from Nexperia that chips could now be in short supply, potentially holding up manufacturing.
“The chips manufactured by the affected manufacturers are important parts used in electronic control units, etc, and we recognise that this incident will have a serious impact on the global production of our member companies,” the association said. “We hope that the countries involved will come to a prompt and practical solution.”
The German car trade association the VDA has also warned of serious consequences for an industry already battling against stiff competition from Chinese EV manufacturers.
Netherlands-China chip war terrifies European car industry – POLITICO
“We will see production stops and slowdowns in short order globally because a lot of suppliers don’t have the depth of stock of the chips,” said a senior automotive official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the issue’s sensitivity. “The auto sector is at the heart of the storm.”..
The shortage threatens a replay of 2022, when pandemic-era microchip shortages similarly brought car plants to a halt. Yet automakers have done little to shore up their supply chains against geopolitical shifts, and an EU plan to reshore some chip manufacturing is falling far short of its targets.
The Dutch Minister Who Confronted China by Seizing Key Chipmaker - Bloomberg
Chip shortages are likely to hit key European automotive suppliers within a week, while the impact could spread across the entire sector within 10 to 20 days, according to people familiar with the matter.
Germany is concerned about the implications of the Nexperia spat and is in “intensive discussions” on the issue, a spokesman for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s administration said Wednesday at a press briefing in Berlin.
安世中国：荷兰总部相关决定在中国境内不具备法律效力；张秋明职务身份保持不变
In a statement, Nexperia China said the decision by the Dutch headquarters to remove a Chinese sales executive has no legal basis in China. Zhang Qiuming was recently removed by the Dutch headquarters from his post as a vice president in charge of sales. Nexperia China also said in the statement that its Chinese operation is continuing as usual, free of any influence from “any external, unilateral decisions.” Nexperia China said Zhang will continue on in his role.
Exclusive: Nexperia’s China unit resumes chip sales to domestic distributors, sources say | Reuters
Dutch chipmaker Nexperia’s Chinese unit has resumed supplying semiconductors to local distributors, according to two people briefed on the matter, having previously halted all shipments when Beijing banned exports following an ownership dispute.
But as part of the resumption, which is confined to domestic trade, all sales to distributors must now be settled in Chinese yuan, the people said, whereas transactions had previously only used foreign currencies such as the U.S. dollar.
Caixin - Worried About Production, Nexperia’s Customers Stake Out China Plant
Clients of Nexperia Holding BV have begun staking out its key factory in southern China, concerned about production continuity after the Dutch government effectively took control of the Chinese-owned, Netherlands-based chipmaker.
With little official information available, multiple customers have sent staff to Nexperia’s assembly and testing plant in Dongguan, Guangdong province. On Monday, a Caixin reporter saw small groups gathered outside, photographing trucks entering and leaving and monitoring employee shifts to gauge the factory’s operational status.
Customers from Shanghai, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Huizhou have been present, with some staying for days in nearby hotels, Caixin has learned.
6. PRC open source AI in the Global South
How China’s DeepSeek Is Beating Out OpenAI and Google in Africa - Bloomberg
Although much of the world’s attention has been focused on Western tech companies vying for lucrative corporate contracts in the US and Middle East, the meeting in Nairobi illustrates how their Chinese rivals are taking a different approach. OpenAI and its American competitors have focused almost exclusively on proprietary AI — models whose software, training data and algorithms are entirely controlled by their parent companies, with customers paying for access. Chinese firms like Huawei and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., by contrast, are courting Africa’s startups and innovation hubs with open-source AI models — ones that can be accessed and modified for free, letting companies build products without expensive licenses...
In Africa, as in Latin America and Southeast Asia, China has a backend advantage. Its AI products flow into a multi-tiered tech infrastructure that, with the help of generous state subsidies, Chinese companies have spent years building. As American tech firms targeted wealthy regions, Huawei courted emerging market consumers with low costs and aggressive marketing. Huawei, now the world’s top telecom equipment provider, and ZTE Corp. have supplied much of Africa’s equipment for data centers, 5G wireless systems and fiber-optic networks. Chinese companies also dominate further down the tech stack: Transsion controls much of Africa’s smartphone market, with Xiaomi Corp. and Honor gaining ground, and ByteDance Co.’s TikTok is one of the most downloaded apps...
Hanging over any conversation about AI in Africa is the fear that the continent’s startups might end up caught in the middle of a US-China trade war. In May, the US Department of Commerce tightened restrictions on Chinese AI hardware, warning that the use of Huawei’s Ascend AI chips anywhere in the world violates US export controls. Should the Trump administration take further measures, there is fear that “Africa could be shut out,” said Terrence Okeke Taylor, executive chairman of the African Academy of Artificial Intelligence, which advises banks, businesses and governments on AI use.
The stakes of relying too heavily on any single country’s tech were vividly illustrated for three days in mid-June, when AI giants Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and DeepSeek — whose servers are located in China — disabled their image-recognition and instant Q&A features on consumer-facing products to prevent cheating during China’s intensely competitive Gaokao, or university entrance exams. Suddenly, chatbots, image recognition tools, and AI analytics apps in Accra, Lagos and Nairobi experienced slowdowns and service interruptions that their creators were powerless to fix.
Kai-Fu Lee’s brutal assessment: America is already losing the AI hardware war to China | VentureBeat
China is on track to dominate consumer artificial intelligence applications and robotics manufacturing within years, but the United States will maintain its substantial lead in enterprise AI adoption and cutting-edge research, according to Kai-Fu Lee, one of the world’s most prominent AI scientists and investors.
In a rare, unvarnished assessment delivered via video link from Beijing to the TED AI conference in San Francisco Tuesday, Lee — a former executive at Apple, Microsoft, and Google who now runs both a major venture capital firm and his own AI company — laid out a technology landscape splitting along geographic and economic lines, with profound implications for both commercial competition and national security.
From the March 21, 2025 Sinocism:
A “research team” at the Institute of Technology and Cybersecurity of the MSS-affiliated China Institute of Contemporary International Relations published an article on the recent US moves to rescind the AI diffusion rule and make massive chip sales into the Middle East. I have published a full translation of The U.S. Enters the “Trump 2.0 Era” of AI Containment Against China 现代院：美国对华AI遏压进入“特朗普2.0时代” here.
This last paragraph in the April Politburo study session readout I think is a decent view into how the top leadership sees the global competition and opportunities around AI:
Xi Jinping emphasized that AI can become an international public good that benefits all humanity. We must vigorously engage in international cooperation on AI, help Global South countries enhance their technological capabilities, and contribute China’s efforts toward bridging the global intelligence divide. Efforts should be made to promote greater alignment and coordination among all parties in terms of development strategies, governance rules, and technical standards, and to form a global governance framework and standards with extensive consensus as early as possible.
And that may contribute that may contribute to why there is so much anger over the Ascend guidance. DeepSeek has increased their confidence, and frankly it should have, as while the US firms are well funded, well supplied with Nvidia chips and mostly closed, China now has an excellent open source LLM it can offer the vast majority of the world that does not really care about Chinese data collection and narrative shaping, and they can offer it for free. It could actually turn out to be much more powerful in the information domain than almost any other channel/platform they have.
With DeepSeek, the Chinese leadership may see an opportunity to mount a global version of AI “encircling the cities from the countryside 农村包围城市” against the US, which would have all sorts of economic, information and geopolitical effects, probably many in the PRC’s favor. I think US policymakers realized that, and the shift on the AI diffusion rule is in part a reaction to that perceived threat. Right now the US AI global chokehold is Nvidia chips, and China, even if they have decent enough alternatives, can not produce enough for their domestic market for the next few years. So if the US can train the world on better chips and provide better free models then what appears to be the emerging PRC strategy may not work.
Business, Economy and Trade
The National Energy Administration announced on the 23rd that in September, nationwide electricity consumption reached 888.6 billion kilowatt-hours, up 4.5% year-on-year.
国家能源局23日发布信息显示，9月份全社会用电量8886亿千瓦时，同比增长4.5%。
By sector, primary industry used 12.9 billion kWh (+7.3% y/y); secondary industry used 570.5 billion kWh (+5.7%); tertiary industry used 176.5 billion kWh (+6.3%); and urban–rural residential consumption was 128.7 billion kWh (−2.6%).
分产业用电看，第一产业用电量129亿千瓦时，同比增长7.3%；第二产业用电量5705亿千瓦时，同比增长5.7%；第三产业用电量1765亿千瓦时，同比增长6.3%；城乡居民生活用电量1287亿千瓦时，同比下降2.6%。
From January to September, total electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, up 4.6% year-on-year, of which power generation by industrial enterprises above designated size was 7,255.7 billion kWh. By sector, primary industry used 114.2 billion kWh (+10.2% y/y); secondary industry used 4,909.3 billion kWh (+3.4%); tertiary industry used 1,506.2 billion kWh (+7.5%); and urban–rural residential consumption was 1,237.8 billion kWh (+5.6%).
1至9月，全社会用电量累计77675亿千瓦时，同比增长4.6%，其中规模以上工业发电量为72557亿千瓦时。分产业用电看，第一产业用电量1142亿千瓦时，同比增长10.2%；第二产业用电量49093亿千瓦时，同比增长3.4%；第三产业用电量15062亿千瓦时，同比增长7.5%；城乡居民生活用电量12378亿千瓦时，同比增长5.6%。
“In the third quarter, electricity consumption by the secondary industry grew 5.1% year-on-year, contributing 51% to overall growth in power use nationwide—making it the main driver of third-quarter electricity-demand growth,” said Jiang Debin, Deputy Director of the Statistics and Digital Intelligence Department at the China Electricity Council.
“三季度，第二产业用电量同比增长5.1%，对全社会用电量增长的贡献率为51%，是拉动三季度全社会用电量增长的主要动力。”中国电力企业联合会统计与数智部副主任蒋德斌说。
前9月全国已发行城中村改造专项债816亿元 同比增长1.4倍 On October 23, according to monitoring by the China Index Academy, among newly issued local government special bonds nationwide from January to September, those related to real estate—such as indemnificatory housing projects, government-subsidized rental housing, renovation of old urban residential communities, shantytown redevelopment, and land reserve—totaled about 640 billion yuan, up 89% year-on-year. Of these, special bonds for renovating old urban residential communities and for shantytown redevelopment were 63.2 billion yuan and 130.2 billion yuan respectively. Special bonds issued for urban village (“chengzhongcun”) redevelopment reached 81.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times. 0月23日，据中指研究院监测，1—9月，全国已经发行的新增地方专项债中，保障性安居工程、保障性租赁住房、城镇老旧小区改造、棚户区改造、土地储备等房地产相关的专项债发行约6400亿元，同比增长89%，其中，城镇老旧小区改造、棚户区改造专项债分别为632亿元、1302亿元，涉及城中村改造的专项债发行816亿元，同比增长1.4倍。
Use of Chinese yuan reaches 3.17% in global payments in September - Global Times In September, the yuan’s share in global payments reached 3.17 percent, up from the previous 2.93 percent, according to SWIFT data released on Thursday. This marks continued progress in yuan internationalization, in line with a growing adoption of yuan in cross-border transactions amid global economic transitioning, analysts said. A recent report released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) confirmed the yuan’s status as the world’s fifth-largest trading currency, with global transaction share of 8.5 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from 2022, the largest rise among all currencies.
China Finds Costly New Way of Boosting Xi’s Global Yuan Push - Bloomberg Ethiopia became the latest this week in looking to convert at least part of the $5.38 billion owed to Beijing into yuan-denominated loans. A growing number of sovereigns is also seizing on cheaper Chinese financing via bonds. But the strategy is coming at a price to China, forcing it to stomach some losses along the way as domestic rates hover well below those on the dollar. Kenya said it cut annual debt-servicing costs by $215 million by converting its Chinese railway loans from dollars earlier this month.
Caixin In Depth: The Vast Funding Network Outside Vanke
China Vanke Co. Ltd. is facing renewed scrutiny after former President Zhu Jiusheng came under investigation, as a complex funding network left some investors’ funds tied up and the cash-strapped developer still struggles under a heavy debt burden.
During his 13 years at Vanke, Zhu, a veteran banker who is well-connected in Shenzhen’s financial circles, emerged as an architect of the Shenzhen- and Hong Kong-listed company’s capital operations, leveraging his roles both at the developer and its related firms.
Zhu, in his mid-50s, was taken away by authorities around June, people with knowledge of the matter told Caixin. He has since emerged as a central figure amid intense scrutiny over off-balance-sheet entities, shadow banking and possible personal enrichment.
BHP leaves door open to iron ore deal with Rio | The Australian
An iron ore alliance between BHP and Rio Tinto to protect their interests in Western Australia and counter the threat posed by China’s determination to drive down prices is not unthinkable, according to one half of the improbable coalition.
Both BHP chair Ross McEwan and chief executive Mike Henry said the mining giant was open to looking at such opportunities but made it clear there were no talks with Rio under way.
Mr Henry also said he did not expect any fallout from Australia and the US strengthening ties in critical minerals to undermine the protracted negotiations with state-backed China Mineral Resources Group over the pricing and terms of future iron ore sales.
Update on China EV giant in secret Aus act | The Australian A controversial plan to store thousands of Chinese-made BYD electric vehicles at one of Australia’s favourite holiday theme parks has been knocked on the head. The plan by Jamberoo Action Park, which sits about 120km south of Sydney, has been knocked back by Kiama Council, just days after News Corp exclusively revealed the cars were parked there without proper approval.
Yicai - Three More Chinese Provinces Exceed National Average for Disposable Income Disposable income per head in 11 Chinese provincial-level regions exceeded the national average in the first three quarters of the year, three more than a year earlier, according to the latest official data.
Yicai - Rural Chinese Make 25% More Trips Inside Country in First Three Quarters as Incomes Rise Five billion domestic trips were made in China in the nine months ended Sept. 30, up 18 percent from a year earlier, according to data released by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism on Oct. 21. Among them, 3.8 billion were made by urban residents and 1.2 billion by rural residents, up 16 percent and 25 percent, respectively.
Chinese Air-Bag Parts Have Exploded and Killed Six. Now Regulators Want Answers. - WSJ The company, China-based Jilin Province Detiannuo Safety Technology, makes air-bag inflators, which contain hazardous chemicals that ignite during a crash to rapidly fill an air bag with gas. At least six people have died and two have been injured in crashes, after the company’s inflators ruptured and sprayed shrapnel around the vehicles’ cabin. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which announced the investigation in a filing Thursday, said it learned of the most recent crash report earlier this month.
Mandarin-speaking ex-White House aide named Boeing China president | Reuters Boeing on Thursday named Landon Loomis the new president of Boeing China, betting that the fluent Mandarin speaker and former White House adviser can steady the China market as the U.S. threatens to choke off parts’ exports to Chinese airlines. Loomis, who spent five years in Beijing as the U.S. Embassy’s aviation specialist and later served as former Vice President Mike Pence’s special adviser, will keep his current title of Boeing vice president of global policy, while running day-to-day operations, strategy and high-level government relations from the Beijing office.
The RoPax ship can run on both fuel oil and cleaner liquefied natural gas, and the shipyard holds fully independent intellectual property rights, CMG reported.
The 12-deck vessel is equipped with facilities such as a buffet restaurant, café and observation lounge, offering 485 cabins and capacity for 1,800 passengers and over 550 cars. Designed for short-distance sea transport between islands or coastal cities, it is a high-tech, high value-added ship, according to the report...
Following delivery, the dual-fuel RoPax ship will operate on the route between Genoa and Palermo, Italy.
On October 23, China Rare Earth Group held a meeting to discuss its work during the first three quarters and to lay out work priorities in the fourth quarter. When discussing the focus of the fourth priority, the company stressed that it would “strictly implement” the export control policy and strive to stabilize supplies. The meeting also discussed the importance of grasping the Party’s assessment of domestic and foreign situations and finding opportunities amid challenges.
会议部署了四季度重点工作，强调要严格落实出口管制政策，依法合规开展工作；抓好生产经营攻坚，全力稳产保供；抓好国企改革攻坚，提升治理水平；抓好科技创新攻坚，增强发展动能；
会议强调，要深刻领会党的二十届四中全会关于当前国内外形势的科学判断和对未来发展方向的战略擘画，善于在挑战中寻求机遇，在困难中锻炼能力，统筹高质量发展与高水平安全实现良性互动。
Caixin In Depth: How a Fragile Business Model Left Gym Giant’s Members Out 1.6 Billion Yuan At its peak, Will’s operated more than 130 locations nationwide — most of which were in its home city of Shanghai. Like its failed competitor Tera Wellness — which collapsed in 2023 — Will’s relied heavily on selling multiyear memberships and expensive personal training packages to fund operations, creating what analysts call a financial house of cards. According to data obtained by Caixin, Will’s owes 1.6 billion yuan ($224.6 million) in prepaid membership and private class fees to its members. But it remains unclear whether the refund requests will be fully met, even with court intervention. On Chinese social media platform Xiaohongshu, many Will’s customers shared their struggles of trying to get their money back, with one even saying that he had finally given up despite a court ruling in his favor.
Caixin Commentary: How AI Is Quietly Fixing a Key Problem in China’s Labor Market - Caixin Global A new study based on big data from job postings and applicant information, conducted by Peking University’s National School of Development AI and Economics Lab and the recruitment platform Zhaopin, finds that artificial intelligence, particularly generative AI represented by large language models, is having a profound impact on the structural problems in China’s labor market. On one hand, these structural issues — specifically worsening educational and professional mismatches — remain prominent. On the other, the phenomenon of educational mismatch in high-AI-exposure occupations is, unexpectedly, beginning to ease.
中小银行密集调降存款利率-证券日报网 In recent weeks, a number of small Chinese banks have lowered their deposit interest rates, with some banks offering lower rates for longer-term deposits, Securities Daily reported. The move is prompted by many banks’ attempt to offset the shrinking profit margins, especially in the wake of lower LPR.
Politics and Law
Caixin - China Elevates Cybersecurity Chief to Top Public Security Role The director of the Ministry of Public Security’s Cybersecurity Bureau, Tan Quan, has been appointed assistant minister of public security, according to a State Council announcement on Oct. 23. Tan’s promotion fills a vacancy left by Hu Binchen, who was appointed vice governor of Jiangsu province and head of its provincial public security department in May 2025. Tan now serves as a member of the ministry’s Communist Party committee and an assistant minister, according to the ministry’s official website.
Draft law amendment highlights AI safety, development-Xinhua A draft law amendment to China’s Cybersecurity Law, which will be submitted to the upcoming session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) Standing Committee, adds new provisions on the safe and sound development of AI. The draft amendment seeks to address new developments and challenges, Wang Xiang, a spokesperson for the Legislative Affairs Commission of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee, told a press conference on Thursday.
September 2025: China’s New National Law on National Parks Food Safety Law amendments on liquid infant formula and bulk transport of liquid foods. New laws on responding to public health emergencies and popularizing the law. Chinese law database upgraded.
Foreign and Defense Affairs
Macron Tells EU to Weigh Using Strongest Trade Tool on China - Bloomberg
French President Emmanuel Macron told European Union leaders to consider using the bloc’s most powerful trade tool against China if they aren’t able to find a resolution to Beijing’s planned export controls on critical raw materials.
Macron said they need to weigh using all options available to them against China, including the EU’s so-called anti-coercion instrument, according to people familiar with the matter.
He made the statement to his counterparts during an EU summit in Brussels Thursday, said the people..
Use of the EU’s most potent trade tool is unlikely at this stage as it would significantly escalate tensions with China. France has called for using the instrument before, including during trade talks with the US. But the drive never fully gained traction.
Tinker, tailor, soldier, Politico? - Euractiv
European security services are investigating whether a former Brussels-based Politico reporter was a spy for China, according to officials from three separate intelligence agencies.
The reporter, whose identity is known to Euractiv, no longer works for Politico. It is not clear if their departure from the outlet was related to the suspicions of spying. The reporter did not respond to Euractiv’s requests for comment.
A spokesperson for the Washington-based outlet said the company had yet to be contacted by authorities and “does not comment on personnel departures as these are confidential personnel matters.”
According to Euractiv’s intelligence sources, the reporter is suspected of using their position as a journalist to cultivate potential targets working in Brussels-based international organisations, including by making sexual overtures towards officials in these institutions. The investigation is still at an early stage.
攻坚“十四五” 非凡这五年丨我军新时代军事训练实战化水平再上新台阶(cctv.com)
Recently, an Air Force base conducted a cross-service, cross-arm coordinated training exercise in which more than a dozen participating elements from multiple services acted in concert and successfully completed a simulated strike mission; a Navy task group carried out a far-seas training event where dozens of ships and over a hundred sorties of aircraft deployed across the vast ocean, pulling together air, surface, and subsurface forces for integrated training. Observing on site, the two exercises shared several common features: training content aligned with combat tasks; conditions set to mirror the battlefield environment; and training standards matched to operational requirements.
日前，空军某基地一场跨军兵种协同训练，多军种10多支参训力量协同行动，顺利完成模拟打击任务；海军某舰艇编队一次远海训练，数十艘舰艇、上百架次飞机在广阔无垠的远海大洋排兵布阵，牵引带动各类空中、水面、水下兵力一体参训。现场观训，两场训练有几个共同点：训练内容与作战任务相一致、条件设置与战场环境相一致、训练标准与作战要求相一致。
Diwali diplomacy: Indian, Chinese soldiers trade sweets along LAC - The Times of India Indian and Chinese soldiers exchanged sweets across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) on Diwali. Yu Jing, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in India, confirmed the exchange on social media, calling it a “gesture of goodwill” between the troops.
Singapore’s prime minister warns of ‘messy’ transition to post-American order - Financial Times
Wong said Singapore would continue to maintain strong relations with both superpowers, but conceded that it was hard to stay neutral on issues such as US export controls on semiconductors to China.
Some companies based in Singapore have been accused of facilitating the illicit movement of US-developed chips to China.
“Where America is concerned, what we have done is put in place robust arrangements so that the US government can . . . investigate companies of interest in Singapore if they so wish,” he said.
“We will also extend similar arrangements for other countries if they would like also to have the same treatment when it comes to their export controls, because nowadays export controls is not limited to America only.”
China should break free from Western “discourse traps” over issues such as state subsidies, democracy and the global order to challenge “double standards” about its rise, a former official policy adviser has urged.
Ding Yifan, a former deputy director of the Institute of World Development, a government think tank, also said many Chinese scholars were reluctant to argue that the Communist Party had played a key role in China’s “remarkable” development because of criticisms it was autocratic.
But he told an event at Fudan University in Shanghai last week they should be “confident” in defending the party’s rule.
Myanmar’s Pig-Butchering Scams Have Under-the-Table Backing From China - Foreign Policy Ties between organized crime syndicates and Chinese intelligence run deep.
Myanmar civil war: The junta is taking back territory with relentless air strikes and China’s help
These towns fell primarily because China has thrown its weight behind the junta, backing its plan to hold an election in December. This plan has been widely condemned because it excludes Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, which won the last election but its government was ousted in the coup, and because so much of Myanmar is in a state of civil war.
That is why the military is currently trying to take back as much lost territory as it can, to ensure the election can take place in these areas. And it is enjoying more success this year because it has learned from its past failures, and acquired new and deadly technology.
In particular, it has responded to the early advantage enjoyed by the opposition in the use of inexpensive drones, by buying thousands of its own drones from China, and training its forward units how to use them, to deadly effect.
Taiwan
TSIA Chairman Clarifies US 50/50 Chip Production Sharing Proposal and Urges Strategic Imperatives Cliff Hou (侯永清), Chairman of the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association (TSIA) and Deputy Co-COO/Chief Information Security Officer of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), today addressed key industry concerns at the sidelines of the TSIA annual conference, providing a first-time public response to the US Commerce Department’s recent proposal regarding “50/50 US-Taiwan chip production sharing.” Hou clarified that based on the latest information gathered by the TSIA and the Taiwanese government, the US proposal does not demand an even split of all global capacity. Instead, it is understood to mean that the US aims for half of its domestic demand for chips to be manufactured within the United States, with other countries expected to cooperate.
China courts Taiwanese worshippers in religious charm offensive, study shows | Reuters More than 10,000 Taiwanese people participated in religious activities in China in 2024 with support from the government in Beijing, a study showed, which Taipei views as part of a campaign by China to win hearts and minds on the island.
Tech and Media
TikTok Revamps Management Team To Empower Chinese Executives — The Information TikTok is implementing drastic leadership changes that pull the video app closer to the orbit of its parent ByteDance, just as Washington and Beijing are on the cusp of reaching a deal over the app’s future in the U.S. TikTok’s global content and distribution partnership teams, both led by Western executives, will be moved under Fiona Zhi, a Bytedance veteran who has been TikTok’s product chief since 2023, according to an internal staff memo viewed by The Information. The restructuring, which will become effective next Tuesday, means the vast majority of TikTok will be overseen by ByteDance veterans and almost completely unravels TikTok’s earlier efforts to empower Western executives.
Caixin - China’s Neolix Raises $600 Million to Scale Autonomous Delivery Vehicles Globally - Caixin Global The round was led by UAE-based Stone Venture, with co-lead investors including Gaocheng Capital, Trustar Capital, CDH VGC, SparkEdge Capital, Beijing Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund, and a major internet company, Neolix said in a statement.
Yicai - AI Transforms Video Game Development in China, Slashing Production Times “About 70 percent to 80 percent of the workload in game development is related to processing art assets, with two major components being animation and model creation,” Liu Qishen, product lead at Tencent Games’ R&D efficiency and capability department, told Yicai. Tencent previously launched VisVise, a full-stack AI creation solution that includes AI-powered skinning and animation tools, covering multiple stages of the game production pipeline. According to Liu, in the rigging process for animation, skinning accounts for 70 percent to 80 percent of the workload and is a highly labor-intensive stage. “Work that originally took one and a half to three and a half days can now be completed in one to three hours with our AI tools, saving 70 percent to 90 percent of manual labor,” the product manager added.
Society, Arts, Sports, Culture and History
系列｜北京“九五“世界妇女大会30周年（一）：共读《女性的反响》 - by Wanqing Chen
Energy, Environment, Science and Health
Caixin - In Depth: Soaring Energy Storage Stocks Mask an Industry at a Crossroads
The tipping point came this past February, when the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a directive, known as Document No. 136, that officially scrapped the mandatory pairing requirement and ordered all new wind and solar projects to begin selling their power on the open market on June 1.
“The feeling is that the changes have been seismic,” said an executive at a state-owned company that invests in and operates storage projects. “Not just storage, but all links in the entire new energy power industry are in the process of being reorganized, and the key is the move toward marketization.”
This shift initially sparked panic, leading to a rush to install storage systems before the June 1 deadline. Consequently, domestic storage tenders plunged by nearly 90% month-on-month in July, according to the CNESA.
However, the same executive told Caixin that market sentiment has now rebounded, as investors who originally worried about plunging demand have come to realize that energy storage is now essential.
Caixin - China’s Green Energy Drive Hinges on Africa’s Minerals, but Barriers Mount Africa’s vast troves of minerals essential to the global energy transition offer a rich foundation for deepened cooperation with China. Yet, this promise is tempered by systemic challenges including rising resource nationalism and intensifying geopolitical competition, according to a report released Tuesday. Jointly published by the Institute of Energy at Peking University and the China University of Geosciences in Beijing, the report underscores the complementary nature of the relationship: Africa holds much of the world’s reserves of key transition minerals — cobalt, copper, lithium, and platinum-group metals — while China is one of their largest global consumers
China releases 10-bln-parameter human-centric genomic foundation model, to transform medicine and health research - Global Times The BGI-Research and the Zhejiang Lab on Thursday jointly released Genos, the world’s first deployable general foundational model for genomes with 10 billion parameters, which supports ultra-long context analysis of up to 1 million base pairs and achieves accurate identification at single-base resolution.
Massive new shale oil field discovered in Sichuan Basin, with reserves exceeding 100 million tons - Global Times A new well in the Sichuan Basin has yielded high flows of shale oil and gas, with daily production of 38.64 cubic meters of oil and 10,000 cubic meters of gas, China Central Television (CCTV) reported on Thursday. The results confirm the discovery of a new shale oil field, which boasts estimated reserves surpassing 100 million tons, and represents a significant expansion of China’s shale resources.
Sixth Tone - Banned, Cancer-Linked Dye Found in Chinese Skin Care Products: Report A banned industrial dye linked to cancer has been found in several well-known skin care products sold across China, according to a third-party testing report that has reignited debate over product safety and gaps in regulatory testing. In a video posted Sunday, Chinese consumer testing group Laoba Pingce said it detected trace amounts of Sudan Red — a banned industrial dye — in skin care products from several major domestic and international brands. The reported concentrations ranged from about 400 to 2,000 micrograms per kilogram.
Caixin - Cancer Screening Star New Horizon Health to Delist in Hong Kong Amid Fraud Claims New Horizon Health Ltd., a once-lauded cancer screening company, will be delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Oct. 27, marking a stunning collapse for a firm once valued at around HK$40 billion ($5.1 billion)…The suspension began in March 2024 after auditor Deloitte refused to sign off on New Horizon’s 2023 annual report. Deloitte cited concerns about the “validity,” “commercial substance and business rationale” of certain sales transactions for the company’s main products, including its flagship at-home colon cancer test, ColoClear.