I'm visiting my girlfriend's family this weekend, and CCTV has of course been on the whole time. It is incredible - 24/7 nonstop programming that tells feel-good stories of the response in Wuhan and across China. The China propaganda machine is not to be underestimated.
In other news, schools have reopened here in Shaanxi Province for High School senior 3 students. There have been some reports of discrimination against foreigners, since one was caught on film throwing rocks at security guards and later deported. Also, according to many friends and others I know, businesses and schools are trying to have their staff work on Monday (a national holiday), of course without the 3x extra pay as mandated by China's labor law.
Hi Bill, does this C-virus threaten the durabilty of Xi’s MANDATE FROM HEAVEN? If so, how could he lose this mandate, ie what specifically would topple him?
Weekend Greetings to you from Hong Kong, Enzio von Pfeil
Has anyone else seem some of the propaganda threads in Chinese circulating through social media all suggesting a non-Chinese origin to the virus? Among other things these posts -- mostly videos -- claim 1) the US aircraft carrier Roosevelt had Covid-19 infections going back to at least January, pointing toward a non-China origin to the virus; 2) there was a Patient No. Zero in Italy who picked up the virus in Hawaii and had no contact with anyone from China; 3) the virus was concocted in a US bioweapons facility. For those of you who may have seen these (as I have) I wonder who is producing these posts.
Is it really that hard to guess? The Foreign Ministry spokesman was retweeting this stuff last week. Though they are more than happy to zero in on any crackpot in the United States who seems to agree and use that as evidence there is some basis to their claims.
I guess Cui Tiankai's remarks serve a political purpose and the propaganda machinery continues to crank out its conspiracy theories even when the two are at odds...
I am very surprised that we havent seen a wave of SME and individual bankruptcies in China yet. I dont think they would have had any material revenue for the last quarter and probably for the next quarter as well.. Job losses are very likely in this scenario too.. The increase in leverage in these areas since GFC has been huge.. An income shock of this magnitude is going to wipe out all equity and declaring bankruptcy might be the most logical choice.. I wonder how the chinese govt is dealing with this tail risk (not so much a tail risk anymore i think).
US china trade war impaired free movement of goods and now we are seeing an impairment of free movement of people. How will countries ever open up borders to each other if a proper treatment/vaccine protocol is not discovered.
I don't adhere to conspiracies, but this virus is working out rather well for the Chinese. The West will be on its knees at the height of 5G competition... they seemed quite prepared for the Wuhan people (to the extent they cared). Over to you
U.S. intelligence officials don’t think the pandemic was caused by deliberate wrongdoing. The outbreak that has now swept the world instead began with a simpler story, albeit one with tragic consequences: The prime suspect is “natural” transmission from bats to humans, perhaps through unsanitary markets. But scientists don’t rule out that an accident at a research laboratory in Wuhan might have spread a deadly bat virus that had been collected for scientific study...
To be clear: U.S. intelligence officials think there’s no evidence whatsoever that the coronavirus was created in a laboratory as a potential bioweapon...
There’s a competing theory — of an accidental lab release of bat coronavirus — that scientists have been puzzling about for weeks. Less than 300 yards from the seafood market is the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Researchers from that facility and the nearby Wuhan Institute of Virology have posted articles about collecting bat coronaviruses from around China, for study to prevent future illness. Did one of those samples leak, or was hazardous waste deposited in a place where it could spread?
Richard Ebright, a Rutgers microbiologist and biosafety expert, told me in an email that “the first human infection could have occurred as a natural accident,” with the virus passing from bat to human, possibly through another animal. But Ebright cautioned that it “also could have occurred as a laboratory accident, with, for example, an accidental infection of a laboratory worker.” He noted that bat coronaviruses were studied in Wuhan at Biosafety Level 2, “which provides only minimal protection,” compared with the top BSL-4.
I have always thought that it was a bit of a coincidence that of the perhaps hundreds of thousands of wet markets in China, in every city and town across the entire country, the virus broke out "naturally" in the one a couple hundred yards from a lab that studies coronavirus strains. Add to that a history of lab release incidents in past years and it seemed difficult to dismiss the possibility out of hand that it was an accidental release.
It felt like the CCP was actually pivoting towards this explanation officially in mid-Feb when Mr. Xiao's paper was released, at the time there was a lot of talk on Weibo and elsewhere that the wet market explanation didn't make sense and wasn't consistent with the early cases that were reported who hadn't traveled in that market. But then American politicians like Tom Cotton picked up on the news and they immediately turned around on Feb. 19th and cited a Lancet article claiming that the virus certainly had a natural origin.
I think the nuance of whether or not it could have been an accidental release was sort of lost in the scramble to disprove the bioweapon theory. The lab release theory does pose some advantages, as this is not a problem unique to China. By going with the wet market explanation they both encouraged conspiracy theories and highlighted unfortunate stereotypes about Chinese culture that it might have been wiser to avoid. In the end, like always, they probably would have been better off just telling the truth.
There was a study published in Nature Medicine a couple weeks ago that pretty definitively rules out the laboratory origin hypothesis. The study as a whole is interesting, and I'd recommend reading the last two sections (ctrl-F "Evidence for natural evolution" and "Possible origins of the virus"). Relevant excerpt and links below
"The scientists found that the RBD portion of the SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins had evolved to effectively target a molecular feature on the outside of human cells called ACE2, a receptor involved in regulating blood pressure. The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was so effective at binding the human cells, in fact, that the scientists concluded it was the result of natural selection and not the product of genetic engineering.
This evidence for natural evolution was supported by data on SARS-CoV-2's backbone -- its overall molecular structure. If someone were seeking to engineer a new coronavirus as a pathogen, they would have constructed it from the backbone of a virus known to cause illness. But the scientists found that the SARS-CoV-2 backbone differed substantially from those of already known coronaviruses and mostly resembled related viruses found in bats and pangolins.
"These two features of the virus, the mutations in the RBD portion of the spike protein and its distinct backbone, rules out laboratory manipulation as a potential origin for SARS-CoV-2" said Andersen."
Yes but if they were studying naturally obtained samples in the lab and those were accidentally released, exposing large numbers of people, the transmission to human could have been effected in a scenario much more dangerous than exposure in a natural environment.
Yeah, I replied to my own comment (below) that I'd misinterpreted. Anyway, I can't help but think that in this environment, this theory will keep getting pushed in a way that:
1) serves as a distraction from our own government's failure to respond adequately
I actually think the wet market explanation is more likely to fuel racism or discrimination, but that is useful for the CCP because it fits an established narrative they are trying to push about racism against Asians in the West and the CCP being their valiant defenders. Lab accident might cause people to ask questions about the government, which is a no-no.
Definitely agree that there is an element of blame-shifting involved on the part of the US administration, but that's to be expected. China kind of already played their hand unsuccessfully at shifting the narrative. Now you will see the awesome power of narrative control that the mainstream Western media can wield when it unites to find a scapegoat.
Oh I think I misinterpreted - the laboratory origin theory you're referring to is that a bat coronavirus originally captured for study leaked accidentally. Even so, it still seems like nothing more than speculation at this point, and I feel like while this:
"Accidents happen, human or laboratory. Solving the mystery of how covid-19 began isn’t a blame game, but a chance for China and the United States to cooperate in a crisis, and prevent a future one."
...is a nice sentiment, it would turn into an ugly and unproductive blame game (for which Asians in the US would of course pay the price).
I think people not involved in finance and business dont appreciate just how central Chinese manufacuring is to the current world order. It s not an exaggeration to say that the neoliberal corportist capitalism we have, in which the 0.01% win all the time at the expense of the rest, who are kept in a tolerable and distracted but ultimately hopeless/powerless existence, is founded on Chinese participation in the supply chain. In many ways Trump and his supporters /advisors habe the correct instincts but their understanding and solutions are illiterate and delusional.
It s bit like their opposite numbers regarding climate change. To solve either problem would involve the elite in the West sharing their largess and privilege out with the masses AND the masses working more in jobs they dont like for less than what they expect. Anyone telling you otherwise is lying or ill-informed. And it will take AT least one generation to execute, with a pause if not a dip in living standard (not that it s great for the young and the working poor now) during the transition.
Oh, one other question I thought was interesting: What will be the Chinese domestic reaction when U.S. citizens receive their relief checks (and small businesses, etc)?
I know from friends in Japan that the U.S. government's largesse is causing a domestic political headache for Shinzo Abe, who's proposal to issue gift cards for Wagyu beef, then his second plan to award 1000 dollars to each household, and finally his "gift" of two cloth masks to each household garnered mockery and fury from Japanese citizens. I would assume people in South Korea are also doing the math.
Given how hard hit economically China was in comparison, is this something that is going to develop into an issue for the CCP? Has the U.S. set a standard that other countries will feel obligated (or be pressured) to follow?
Given that most foreign missions are probably operating on skeleton crews already, the diplomat ban is quite striking. Is any other country even considering this kind of action?
Other recent events of note that may be related: crackdown on medical PPE export from China, neighboring countries (including Cambodia) cut off all food exports, expulsion of foreign correspondents of major U.S. newspapers from China.
How could the virus come back in the fall? What are the potential economic impacts of a domestic resurgence of cases in China, and would the govt have incentives to report cases accurately if the breakout returns next year?
Hello all - long time reader, first-time commenter.
Would anyone recommend any sources/further reading on the International Liaison Department 中联部? I read up a little on it after seeing the news yesterday about how their spokesperson joined twitter. I'm going to look through Anne-Marie Brady's book but any other sources - historical or current - are welcome.
I can't really speak to the relative importance of the ILD, but the growing number of Chinese officials on Twitter and the fact this department's account comes online even after the controversy over Zhao's tweets seems to signal that they feel this method of communication is useful. I still can't get over the obvious conflict with Twitter and Facebook, et al terms of use but apparently they are okay with it as well. I did read an article that was marveling at the fact that a Chinese official charged with international engagement was on an American social media platform communicating in English for their first posting, I guess that is a strange milestone for long-time China watchers.
How will the coronavirus impact the development of sports in China? Up until the outbreak of the pandemic, China had spent considerable resources on developing sports in China. The State Council even issued several directives as late as last fall. With the 2022 Winter Olympics to be hosted in Beijing, do you see sports losing priority to support the general economy or will the government view it as even more important to deliver a "perfect" Olympics to the world?
What do you think about the power relations between the major power will look like in a year? We could see souring relations between the US and Russia and the US and China. Now the US suffered a heavy blow to due seemingly inadequate response to covid19 and China seems increasingly able to drive global perception and discourse on how good China handled eventually the crisis. Do you think this will have a positive impact on Chinese ability to further push their technology agenda for instance or after the crisis we will get back to square one where we stood before the crisis?
This guys analysis looks pretty legit on the start of the pandemic and the CCP's role in the coverup. Even the Washington Post was saying something similar today.
The problem is that it is all circumstantial. I enjoy a well crafted theory now and then but given how opaque the CCP is the likelihood of ever finding out the truth is lower every day that passes. The origin of this virus will probably be another one of those things that is studied for a long time, but I think it's going to have an asterisk no matter what kind of web sleuthing people do in their spare time.
Hi Bill, Hope you and your family are safe and healthy. In your personal opinion, how and where do you think this covid19 originally started. Lab or “wet” market? Best, Michael Moody
Does anyone have any thoughts on the ongoing response from the Wuhan public to the protracted lockdown? There is clearly a great amount of discontent and grumbling, with sporadic outbursts and controversies such as the gratitude campaign that was quickly shut down. Will there come a point where lockdown is politically impossible to maintain? What happens when a large section of Wuhan's workers approach the brink of household financial collapse? When the (in my opinion inevitable) second wave of infections begin to spread nationally, how will Wuhan residents respond to being forced into lockdown again?
It's an important test case for governments to assess the long term viability of lockdowns, and at what point the damage to the social fabric outweighs the danger to public health. Personally, I cannot see any self-governing city or state imposing such a long and indefinite lockdown on its own people, economy, and society.
That they were ever able to sustain a lockdown that drastic in the first place is a testament to their level of societal control and the endurance of Wuhan citizens. But I think it's an important question to study. If the lockdown strategy was truly effective (according to actual experts in the scientific field) I would imagine they would have been pushing it strongly elsewhere. To your point, it would be nice to have access to the data that showed how the city "comes back to life", but I fear that's just one more important piece of data that the world will be denied due to secrecy and the need to promote positive propaganda.
Good afternoon, could anyone on the ground give us a quick update on any act of xenophobia or foreigners being ostracized due to the virus now being described as a "foreign imported sickness"? What do you see from the ground? Have you had experiences similar to this?
A Chinese partner was trying to laugh off the fact that a foreign contact brought into a signing ceremony in Jiangsu last week was being fingerpointed by stranger as "bringing the virus into the conference". A very awkward moment.
I haven’t seen anything in Shanghai. Yesterday night we went out to the former Gemma in the French concession, and all other places around like funkadeli were packed with both Chinese and foreigners together.
I am interested to see, when the pandemic begins to fade into the sunset, if and how China will respond to Taiwan being heralded (rightly so) for its response and involvement in the treatment of COVID-19. I believe China will apply my pressure and coercion to foreign states that still maintain ties with Taiwan to severe or limit them.
There is a coordination of disinformation campaign / propaganda on WeChat and Twitter now. The episode of a Chinese lady bought out PPE in rural Florida and then get arrested, with the video recording first appear in WeChat, moved to Twitter with English subtitle, and back to WeChat saying she was hated by Americans and imply she has been arrested. The quality of the fakes are poor but fooled a lot of people nonetheless. Certainly by far the majority in China (>95%?) believed it.
This, together with some WeChat call for armament and organization in the expatriate Chinese community in US, is alarming. Certainly some one is hoping for a conflict between the ethnic Chinese here and the general population. I am just wondering whether this is the work of some lonely "wolf" packs, or actually the implementation of a CCP strategy.
Bill, would you tell me if you agree with the following prediction:
"The long-term result of the pandemic will be to cement China’s place as the largest, most prosperous economy in the world. Now that the pandemic appears to be controlled in China, even if there are recurrences from foreign sources, the Chinese economy is geared to further prevention and is poised for expansion. The government has the experience and the will to target particular industries and sectors for this expansion. China didn’t do badly after the recession of 2008 because the government was proactive with directed domestic investment. The base of domestic consumption will continue to grow. The rest of the world’s problems will force China’s export sector to adapt even more quickly than before. It will either fill global vacuums (face masks?) or redirect workers and/or products to domestic consumption.
Pandemics destroy people (and businesses); wars also destroy resources and infrastructure (but helped American businesses). It's not entirely clear how these differences will play out economically. The US success following WW2 was predicated on existing full mobilization (by 1945) of industrial production, large forced savings during wartime, a large returning potential workforce, and a broad consumption base of well-supported veterans and domestic savers. And destroyed industrial sectors everywhere else in the world.
By contrast, US response to the pandemic has been a disaster, magnified by Trump’s incompetence. Political polarization/lack of unified national will is the underlying problem, but the free enterprise, laissez-faire, low tax economy will be incapable of handling the magnitude of this crisis, even with a Democratic administration. I think that China will emerge from this wreckage in a position analogous to that of the US following WW2."
A Chinese friend writes: "The state power has grown even more after the coronavirus and has won more converts here due to information control. An economic stipulation package is now put together will further convince people that “socialism” is better than capitalism, not just in crisis management."
I would question the prediction for 2 reasons. The virus damaged the private sector in China in ways that the party hadn't been able to push through before, and the party was already moving to quash private business as much as possible. This means that the state owned enterprises are carrying all the water in China, and I do not believe that this bodes well for the Chinese economy in the long run.
Second, I have been looking for signs that the Chinese economy is picking up post corona virus, and I have not been seeing the signs of that. Specifically, I am watching commodity prices and shipping container availability in the US. There is a lag for the shipping container availability, I understand, so maybe the jury is still out. The larger question here is one of truth coming out of China. Are things really getting better there, or is there still a myriad of problems? The virus numbers that Johns Hopkins is showing from China are pure bullshit.
Strongly disagree here..America's rise post WW2 was composed of two things: 1) the utter and total destruction on all the European and Asian countries that is only achieved through total war and 2) America's inevitable rise as a superpower due to secure borders, growing population, and huge industrial and agricultural capacity that frankly can only be rivaled by a united Europe, or a united Asia. Not coincidently, that was why we went into WW2 - to prevent the formation of European (German) or Asian (Japan) empires that could in time consolidate and challenge us. China' has a lot of weaknesses and vulnerabilities and is not really close to us on point 2 above, not to mention point 1 is not happening either. Reading some of the geopolitical books from Peter Zeihan or George Friedman definitely gives some perspective on how much geopolitical advantages shape everything
Interesting points. In regard to #1, I agree (as in my second paragraph above). But today the global damage done by COVID to the US's economic functioning makes the international comparison more equal. The moral imperatives toward unity during wartime in the US were far greater than those today, while in China the sense of purposeful national pride is extraordinarily high. As far as your point #2, China's geopolitical weaknesses are lack of arable land and, therefore, food insufficiency, and up to now, energy. It's not obvious that at least some of these limitations can't be remedied by further development (and diversion) of existing national resources and technology (for energy) or by developing state-sponsored economic relations (belt and road) with other Asian countries. The possibility of a "united Asia" (your term) under Chinese domination isn't out of the question. Still, I grant you that all of this is speculative and depends on current events that are now rapidly unfolding (to put it mildly).
Thanks for the response - I think we are very far away from either one happening. For point 1, whatever economic damage the US suffers from the epidemic, you have to belive that China is feeling the same (or worse) given its reliance on global trade which is obviously heavily impacted. Second, the chances of China dominating Asia are pretty small - don't forget that Japan is a powerful and significant counterweight, along with S. Korea. US Strategy has also always been to ensure a balance of power, and thus I don't see China dominating a united Asia. the US was a recipient of fortunate circumstances because they managed to claim most of N. America for itself with no rival powers anywhere within 60000 miles, laying itself for its destiny as the lone superpower.
China is the big bad scary right now, but as it weakens in the next 10-20 years, I think you will see the US switch back to a balance of power strategy and help China to make sure that China doesn't weaken too much and give up all of Asia to Japan. It would be ironic though...
For #1, see my new post above. Just my friend's view, of course.
For #2, "In 2017, China major trading partner countries for exports were United States, Hong Kong, China, Japan, Korea, Rep. and Vietnam and for imports they were Korea, Rep., Japan, Other Asia, nes, United States and Germany."
Thanks for your input. Obviously, it's very early in the pandemic, and lots will depend on how quickly it can be brought under control. I suppose the hypothetical argument about China might also apply to other, smaller Asian economies that seem to manage COVID-19 better than the West. The relative outcomes will depend on the degrees of yet-to-be-ascertained actual damage, I suppose. But the more directive Asian economies, at this point, seem a lot more nimble than Western ones. I wonder if, retrospectively, this crisis will be seen as a quantum leap of a previously gradual evolutionary process.
The jury also seems to be out on the "managed" versus "contained" methods for controlling (?) the virus, so we don't know about longer term which of the ideas will actually work better. Don't give the autocrats too much credit before it is actually due.
Yeah, I know. We travel to China just about every year (in academic circles) so I think it's important to separate deeper cultural traits (common to Asian countries) from political regimes. Sometimes I think that the CCP is "authoritarian Confucianism" in politics, and "authoritarian Keynesianism" in economic policy. The former they imbibed with mother's milk, the latter they learned on-the-fly, but very quickly.
I have two garment friends who came back down to Home in HK as they could not get anything started in terms of getting their vendors to start production, workers just not coming back. Both are upper Guangzhou. They call quite a bit as now doing the 14 day sit out.
—
That said friend in mid-stream container ops says business has started to pick up, especially reefer traffic inbound to China..
I am interested to hear from other foreigners living in China if they have been on the receiving end of increased xenophobia and/or racism since the travel ban? Some western news outlets have been reporting on it, but personally I haven't yet noticed anything much worse than the "default" level of xenophobia over the past few years.
That said, I have been on the receiving end of people leaving the sidewalk or switching seats to get away from me... but sadly I have noticed that happening all over, it doesn't just seem to be aimed at foreigners. I think people returning from Hubei are still getting the worst of it. The tension in air feels worse to me now than it did a month ago.
I'm in Beijing and have been leaving my residential compound a good bit the last 3 weeks and haven't noticed anything either. The travel ban may actually help eventually as the public realizes that the foreigners who are here have been here for more than 14 days. In terms of COVID-inspired discrimination, I think people from Hubei and especially Wuhan will have a much harder time than foreigners. While there is definitely a national sentiment that they have suffered tremendously, my guess is that migrant workers from Hubei won't be allowed to return to their jobs and/or shared apartments in other cities. This is not because of any government policy per se, but because their colleagues/bosses/roommates won't accept them back.
I am convinced that COVID-19 is the 'great disruptor' of our time, and that Asian countries (including but not only the PRC) have been more adaptive, due to their abilities to undertake a whole of govt approach. So I think that China - and Xi - will emerge stronger than before, and I agree with those who believe that some additional decoupling between the US and China will occur. But some cooperation will be necessary, as pandemics such as COVID-19 are too hard and complex for any one nation to scientifically/medically solve by a 'go it alone' approach. So increasingly skillful diplomacy will be called for on both sides. The McKinsey report below is very helpful in understanding how businesses will adapt to the new/next normal:
It seems to me that the planning now has to be how we get back to work after the US peaks some time in late April, and here again we can learn from China to the exten we can get reliable data.
Seems to me that China is on the slow road to recovery. Anything or factory with a large exposure to exports will see April business 20-25% below March but orders for infrastructure are gathering pace even to speciality steel producers in Europe.
Hi Bill, Laszlo Montgomery from the China History Podcast. You'll know this. Who in the heck are all these people who have started following me these past weeks on Twitter. They mostly seem to be Chinese nationals from the looks of the account name and the organizations/people they follow. Their accounts mostly all opened in Feb-Mar-Apr. Are these actual humans? Bots? 他们到底是谁? I saw similar kinds of accounts emptying both barrels of their shotguns on Ray Kwong yesterday. Yikes!!!! Thank you sir.
Hopefully not but perhaps it’s related to your new series on Xinjiang. Really looking forward to listening to it over the next couple of months. Thanks for enlightening and entertaining us all these years with the most exciting podcast on Chinese history...the CHP!
Having a long history of commercial dealings in China it is no surprise that misinformation and defense of the system at the expense of the citizens of China has and is occurring. Fear of civil unrest, if leaders’ self-interest, gave cause to an old friend who says ‘most Chinese Government officials need “S” shaped beds because they can’t even sleep straight’. A shame that the government doesn’t reflect the wonderful and generous society that it so ineptly rules.
I’ve been hearing about increased anti-Asian attacks or cases of racism within the United States. To what extent is that true? Is this the case of a few bad apples highlighted by Chinese state media or is there rising overt racism within American society?
If you do a simple Twitter search, maybe with some keywords like "Asian," "discrimination," "coronavirus," "racism," etc., you'll see lots of videos of these violent instances.
I would say the fears are definitely legitimate. Personally have a friend who was walking down the street in Manhattan the other day and punched in the face by a stranger for being Asian.
It's a pretty good summary of how we got to the present moment. I don't know that it has any particular insight into what the impact of the events of JAN-APR of this year will be, but who really does at this point? I agree with their overall assessment that the U.S. strategy of sustained pressure has been and will continue to be effective.
I find it interesting becasue it is not corona-focused notwithstanding the sub-header. More sets the table for analysing how china deals with phase two, pre vaccine, and tries to get back to work. I look at SG locking down as one response to this - they have unique insight into the mainland and I expect they do not like what they see coming their way.
Hi Bill, many newspapers reported that Dr. Ai Fen disappeared but they are all based on one source: Australia 60 minutes. Do you have any information on that or do you have any advice how I can find out whether it’s true or not.
Apparently her Weibo has been updated a few times in March but the pattern is kind of reminiscent of other "missing" people who update their Chinese social media accounts, that it to say it has a bit of a "gun to my head but everything is fine" quality to it. If it fits the pattern of other cases like this she will eventually emerge from custody, make an apology, and then lay low for the foreseeable future under virtual house arrest. The publicity may make things harder for her.
I am intrigued at the point China is at with the virus. Angela Merkel was quoted at one point saying she thought 60-70% of Germans would be infected. A recent piece in the WSJ by Holman Jenkins Jr ("Should You Get Covid-19?") seemed to suggest that the US will undergo similar levels of infection. Both points argue that the infection is being managed rather than contained.
The Chinese view seems to be that it has been contained. Yet, if the rest of the world is only "managing" rather than "containing" it would seem that China has truly "decoupled" since the only way to "contain" when the rest of the world has let the virus run through the population is to isolate one's self. If this is so, then China has set itself apart from the world economy. Thoughts?
Former Chongqing mayor Huang Qifan actually believes this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Chinese economy, as it will be the only country that have factories open as the virus spread in the world. He argues there will be lots of FDI flowing into China because the world will have to depend more on it for manufacturing. I disagree but interesting argument from a former senior official whose words still carry weight in Beijing. https://www.yicai.com/news/100570404.html
Yes it is kind of interesting that most of the rest of the world has adopted a strategy of "managing" rather than "containing" as you said. The risk of reinfection would be ever present in China at least until a vaccine is developed. With that in mind I don't see how they can lift travel restrictions in the medium term. They are already basically building a moat around Beijing. Even foreign diplomats are not going to be allowed to return until mid-May, per SCMP: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3078385/coronavirus-china-advises-foreign-diplomats-stay-away-beijing
I would say, yes. I cannot see VCs and fund managers investing without being able to kick the tires. On the manufacturing side I cannot see getting production right without face to face meetings or even placing orders without seeing the operation.
Looks like travel and tourism are 11% of Chinese GDP. Is China prepared to write off that sector?
I dont think that a country's ability to "contain" a virus (as opposed to merely "managing" it) has much to do with its dependence on the world economy. Look at South Korea, for instance, which has effectively "flattened the curve," has more recoveries per day than new infections, yet has kept its borders open and never issued a wholesale shutdown of businesses and movement. A lot of this has to do with the emergency public health toolkit available domestically to each country.
"Managing" or "flattening the curve" both accept that "containment is not possible and that the virus will infect eventually a large part of the population. The public health protocol is then to seek to align infections and resources.
So SK continues to report increasing infection numbers, but at a lesser rate, and seems to have pulled the rate of infection down and in line with medical resources.
China, however, is saying no new infections (domestic) and what infections there are are all imported. But if it takes this line and wants to hold this line can it open itself up to the rest of the world any time before the virus has fully penetrated the rest of the world and spent itself? And then when it does reopen does it not risk the virus running rampant?
If anything it'll get way worse, it's just being drown out right now, if I'm a business from any country with assets in hk you should get out asap, let there be no mistake, both Beijing and dc's goal is to kill Hong Kong ( in their own defined way ) if your an expat there also have a exit plan ready to go
Is the CCP still invested in spreading propaganda that the virus started outside China? Or is that on the decline? As an American, hard to tell how mainstream those conspiracies are in Chinese domestic discourse
Bill thanks for the clear and honest reporting you do! What do you think the trend will be on Chinese holding of US Debt. With our $2T-$4T of new stimulus spending and thus new debt to buy, China could increase their holdings, or with decoupling and deterioration they might decrease it. Which way do you think it will trend?
What is the Chinese Government doing to repatriate it’s student citizens from abroad? I understand commercial flights are hopelessly expensive and students will be required to quarantine at their own expense on arrival in PRC. Costs could easily reach USD10,000. Not all of these students are from wealthy families.
They have basically shut the door. As I noted in the Thursday newsletter they are making a big deal of distributing "care packages" through embassies to the overseas students. The dramatic restrictions on the flights was effectively saying the Motherland does not want you right now without having to say it explicitly.
any thoughts on the "open letter" last week on Chinese social media calling for the dilution of Pres Xi's power...it was up for 3 days, which is way longer than censors would normally allow unless someone else higher up wanted that discontent displayed..thoughts?
Hi, without knowing who wrote it, not much. there was a similar letter a few years, turned out to have been written by an overseas dissident, it was meaningless, though it does give the security services a good view into who shares it and who should be dealt with
Completely agree. on a call this morning about this topic. just added fuel to the fire. politicians looking for anything that shows they are looking out for the US consumer.
My sense is that even if China covered up their numbers, the CCP's legitimacy was on the line and therefore the Party leadership no longer had the political incentive to completely lie about MACRO-TRENDS. So yes, they may have reported 80,000 cases instead of 150,000, but could they seriously be lying about a dramatic decrease in new infections (macro trend) when in reality, there's an apocalypse unfolding on the ground? I think not. What do you think? I'm in so many debates with people in my circles that Chinese numbers are fake and that they had hundreds of thousands of cases, but I tend to brush these people off because I believe the Chinese system has internal checks that would systemically discourage lying about MACRO trends
Bill I really disagree, everybody we talk to who is coming out of China says there’s just a lot more sick people up there, and this comes all the way from GuangZhou to Xiamen..But here’s the rub, I think that tells us The toll the disease takes in terms of life is not as bad as thought. That may be small point now that the world economy is shut down, but in both China and the rest of the world the misery of that economic shut down may well outweigh the virus itself
If today's action by SG, and the increased new case announced today out of Taiwan and South Korea, then the Chinese numbers have to be understated, perhaps more than one order of magnitude, particularly now that people are going back to work. Seems that there is no way to prevent this without suppressing the virus altogether, which will require a vaccine.
Isn't it more likely that China's numbers are significantly lower than actual cases because they didn't test extensively (unlike ROK and Germany) rather than deliberately hiding the number of known cases?
Good point - I have yet to see an official count of tests conducted by Chinese authorities. I've encountered many sources saying that China has probably tested the highest number of people by far (in the millions.) A month ago, my friends entering Shanghai were saying every single person at the airport was getting tested. So there's no question they're testing a huge number of completely healthy people.
As for the actual numbers from Wuhan during the peak, it's entirely possible that just like in New York now, only people with the most severe people ended in hospitals and were able to be tested. Likely that the asymptomatic people -- just like in the US -- would have stayed home instead of going into the hospital to get tested (why would they?) Pretty much what is happening in America. In two months, could China accuse America of purposefully underreporting asymptomatic cases? Difficult questions. We in America are essentially producing the same results as China without the criminal intent we are quick to ascribe to Chinese public health authorities. Which isn't to absolve the Chinese of blame. Just saying, we ourselves in America dont even know the extent of our own outbreak!
In practice there's no way that's really possible, that's even harder in a sense than the "I'm against extreme islam but totally that won't spill over to Muslim in general" sure, you individually might be able to walk that line, but if you want society in general to achieve that, good luck
While it may be difficult, the generally positive media coverage of Taiwan during this whole thing suggests that differentiating between ethnically Chinese people and the CCP isn't impossible.
Me think you don't actually follow the discourse within Taiwan itself, let's just point out that the main narrative, especially those that are hostile to Beijing, is WAY more hostile to the general Chinese population than those elsewhere except Hong Kong
I doubt the pla or usn care much about temporary gains in scs, if we're talking about Taiwan or something, the timeline and stake gets way too far for a virus advantage ( if it exists ) to be decisive
I hope not, that would be a very stupid move, and I think unlikely given how it flies in the face of the main propaganda thrust coming from Beijing about how the PRC is a responsible major power trying to help the world fight the pandemic.
How much of the rhetoric around China "covering up" its total count of confirmed cases is actually true, as opposed to Chinese authorities themselves having no idea the extent of the virus? It seems like the same criticism against the China could be activated against the US: namely, Los Angeles famously gave up on testing even suspected patients unless they're exhibiting severe symptoms and need to be admitted. In other words, it appears that the US is also excluding a vast number of "asymptomatic" people from their official count. Of course, the issue is intentionality. But how are we so sure the Chinese literally sat there and maliciously decided to distort their numbers? Do we have the evidence for that?
There's some of both obviously, but the current fixation on numbers seems far more about deflecting blame from themselves. Boris and Trump were still tweerling their thumbs when Italy was imploding. Hard to argue that's China's fault
Great point. I like to point out that South Korea and the US had their first confirmed case on the same exact day. If the US logic goes that China is to blame for the massive scale of the US outbreak, South Korea was operating on the exact same timeline with the same exact (misleading) information coming out of China, and still did fine. Another thing to add: South Korea never banned travel from China, and has STILL not banned travel from China. That has nothing to do with an effective, competent domestic public health response.
I'm alarmed at how there has been a surge of anti-China op eds generated. I'm not naive, there are issues, but the implication of these opinions is that total disengagement is the only way. I believe the best way is ongoing dialogue and people to people links, but these arguments are far harder to make than a simplistic, but unrealistic, 'let's boycott China' line. How do we make the case for ongoing engagement to avoid eventual confrontation?
I think you forget that much of this is driven by China. The expulsion of the initial three WSJ journalists was China. The military action near Taiwan and the South China Sea. The claims that the virus comes from the U.S., then Italy, the kidnapping of foreign nationals, the tantrum and threat-based diplomacy, the defective COVID-19 tests and PPE, the list goes on and on. I find it disingenuous to frame it as an action from the West when China is begging for the world to disengage. This is a reaction.
Like I said, there are issues. I'm a libertarian I don't like many things China does. But to say the west is just reacting to China is not true either. But all this misses my main point - which is what strategy do we use? Disengage/boycott (leading to severe tension and increased danger) or engage somehow. The latter seems to be the only option. So how?
I don't see engagement as the only option. To be completely frank, I see only a choice between bad options. To engage and to continue to fuel China's bad behavior, or to disengage and risk hurting Chinese people. Both bad, but this is by China's design. All I know is that we've only tried one of the two options.
I just don't see how disengagement is remotely possible. Even the us administration pushed back on Trump's plan to stop us firms selling to Huawei as they needed the sales. China's market is to big to ignore. Engagement will go on. But unless it is less naive it not bring positive change
My take is that Trump's strong trade tactics with China has taken a turn for the worse by building a cross party anti-China feeling that it is time to contain China's rise. Some of my friends are telling me that policy with China was driven by the corporate sector; its now the turn of NSC, the intelligence agencies and State. This will get very much worse over the coming years as America will use all of its resources to contain China. China knows this and has prepared contingency plans. watch this space!
Of course it doesn't have to be an all or nothing. But it makes sense to make major adjustments that anyone averse to short-term pain will dislike, especially those in the U.S. administration. Don't mistake resistance among Americans for unsound policy.
Even politics aside, it is perfectly clear now that medical supply manufacturing, for example, must be spread out to other places in case one country goes into crisis. This is a lesson that I'm sure many countries, not just the U.S., are learning the hard way.
And i'd agree with a strategy of re-shoring to secure supply chains and of much more scrutiny on loss of advanced tech through acquisition by China or via naive university collaborations. This needs tightening up. But I want to know what positive engagements would work best alongside these sticks, to effect change.
Peter, I want to second your sentiment and add a comment. There is mutual ignorance/intolerance in both US and Chinese media circles. I, like you, believe this is best combatted with increased dialogue/engagement across all levels of society, but I struggle to see how we get there without completely rethinking how we structure such engagement. What do I mean? I spent a year of high school at a special program that sent 40 US students to live with Chinese host families and learn Chinese. I currently attend a US University with a first-class Chinese exchange program with Tsinghua University. Both programs have struggled to retain student interest in the past 5-10 years, and the coronavirus was the last straw. Starting this year programs are closed indefinitely with no plans to reopen after Coronavirus dissipates. The sad reality is that Educational and Diplomatic engament has not worked for the US for a long time, and this virus is simply the nail in the coffin. The Sinocisim
Community is a group of smart people, maybe we can rethink this together?
Two questions: What type of engament do you think is possible then? And do you think that Trump and Peter Navarro’s strand of American Nationalism is the right counter response to China?
Just as another data point, its been interesting for an organization like ours (US-China Business Council), we've tried to place two OpEds these past two weeks. One was on removing tariffs as a stimulus and humanitarian effort, the other on leveraging the crisis to rethink US-China relations. Neither was accepted. Lots of facts can contribute to that, of course, but there does seem to be a trend to accept OpEds that are more strident in tone generally.
The two sides share the same basic goals: they both want to see better human rights in China. One side uses simplistic, nationalistic 'boycott', the other the more subtle, but more effective suggestions like yours here, Jake. What I'd like to see is a strategy that thinks through a sensible way forward, which will be a combination of actions, some positive some with a harder edge
Not to be inflammatory but US-China Business Council is about business and not human rights. The engagement team has done nothing on human rights since time of Clinton when it needed too for MFN.
So you can say my world is one of nationalism and ignorance, but let’s take engagement to the American voters and see what happens.
I think many groups are beginning to think about what China policies to recommend to the next administration (President Trump second term or President Biden), but its very early to fully appreciate the implications of COVID-19. I agree with what Bill noted above, this will accelerate decoupling selectively in the healthcare space first, but I'm even hearing thoughtful free traders raise concerns about an over reliance on Chinese inputs in some industries. I suspect a retrenching and "regionalization" of supply chains going forward to diversify supply chain risk going forward while at the same time US companies invest more in China to access the local market.
Hi Bill and the rest of the Sinocism community. I am scheduled to start Mandarin language school in the fall but now that I find myself with more free time could you recommend any strategies, applications, or online courses that would better prepare me in the interim? I've jumped into memorizing the more common characters using Anki and was wondering if I'm on the right track or not.
On a side note I think this forum with its wealth of knowledge and experience would be a great one for creating recommendation lists for novices or improving China watching. I’m thinking Mandarin learning, reading lists, where to shop for China-related paraphernalia (books, art, furniture, etc), knowledge networks, etc.
To build on some of the other comments my suggestion is to think about your reasons for learning the language and let this guide your focus. I've spent around 10 years in and out of China in finance and government jobs that have used Mandarin on a day-to-day basis, and will tailor the advice on similar -I have always targeted practical language over perfection. If you were looking to learn for academia, the advice might be very different.
- I saw someone mention reading/writing is less important than speaking and listening. I completely agree that at the beginning speaking is much more important, and I second some of the other comments that you need a language partner or can use tools such as Italki. Podcasts or Youtube could also be useful in building up listening, but you do need someone who can give you honest feedback on your pronunciation.
- Spend some time at the beginning with a teacher going through pinyin and getting the pronunciation right. It will be boring if you do it properly but will help in the long run. This doesn't need to be the sole thing you study, but it's vitally important to get a good foundation of the sounds and tones.
- However, I do believe reading is important, even if reading is not part of your goal. Apart from Mandarin I have learned up to intermediate level Korean. That language has a lot of similarities as well as differences, but one difficulty I found is the large number of homonyms; especially the same syllable, different meaning. In mandarin this is the same, although you have tones to help to differentiate. It may depend on your learning style, but I think I would find it difficult to hook so many meanings on similar sounds without the character reference and avoiding reading could become a block of moving beyond an intermediate level.
- In terms of traditional or simplified it again depends where you want to go. I learned simplified because at the time I was learning it was designed to be used in the Mainland, and hence biased, but would suggest following this. You can learn either traditional or simplified and transfer across (I spent 3 years in HK and can read traditional okay), but I do think simplified will take less time to learn, even if they are less beautiful and hold less information.
- For learning characters and to read, I would not recommend memorising on anki or pleco or similar (although Pleco is highly highly recommended anyway). You need to learn them in context and a teacher can help with this. The only part of characters that I think are valuable to batch learn are the radicals - around 100 most common building blocks that will speed up learning the rest of the characters.
The pinyin advice here is spot on! Crucial to build the right pronunciation habits from the start. Learn the proper tongue placement for pinyin initials.
Thanks for the advice Doug...I will have a native speaker teaching me one-on-one starting in the Fall for a lengthy intensive course. I am just trying to do as much as I can (with all this newly acquired free time) to get ahead of the game between now and then. This discussion has been so helpful!
I've gone from total beginner to HSK 5 (working on 6), so I have some strong views and lessons learned.
Ask yourself if you really want to/need to read. For many learners, when they envision their ideal state and future context of using Chinese, it doesn't often involve reading. When they realize the toil involved in learning to read, they amend their goal. If you don't need to read or it is a light goal, I recommend focusing on speaking and listening.
If you must read, focus on Traditional Characters and ignore simplified. First, traditional characters are beautiful. Second, most early learners believe them to be more complicated, but they actually contain more meaning clues for the foreign learner than simplified characters. Third, they are more practical for a foreigner to learn because you will probably end up traveling to Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, or Chinatowns around the world where you will encounter them. If you make a career of it and end up digging deeper in the language, it will be easier for you to learn classical Chinese or read first hand sources. Finally - this is my hypothesis, and if I was a teacher I would devise experiments to prove it - it will be easy for you to read simplified texts if you come across them having studied traditional, but difficult to read traditional texts if you only study simplified.
Thank you for taking the time to give me some excellent advice David. Reading is certainly in third place behind listening and speaking as reasons why I’m doing it. How distant a third is unclear at this point but I appreciate the sage advice. I’ve just started memorising traditional characters so based on what you’ve said I‘ll try to stick to that.
Hi Wolf, you mentioned that you are an AMS member. While AMS' materials are definitely geared towards HSK 5+ learners, I recommend checking out the interview they did with Robert Daly about learning Chinese. He's very insightful and covers some of the bad habits you don't want to pick up. Also, for learning about China, Bill Kirby, Peter Bol, and others did an amazing job on their free, 10 part course: https://www.edx.org/chinax-chinas-past-present-future. Anyone who does all 10 parts would learn as much as taking 2-4 Chinese history courses. And knowing at least the basics of Chinese history, especially 1600 onwards, is as fundamental to understanding China as the language.
Wonderful recommendations William. Thanks so much for taking the time. I missed Daly's interview with AMS. Had the pleasure of once going to a workshop he was in. What a fountain of knowledge and experience. Will definitely check that out.
Will also check out the history course as well. I've got a decent non-Mandarin speaking background with China but I am always looking for new avenues for knowledge. Will add Kirby et al to the likes of Laszlo Montgomery at the CHP.
1) download and pay for the Pleco Professional Bundle. serious learners will spend hundreds, maybe thousands of hours on this thing, esp. if you switch to using the flashcards. besides this, there are different dictionary, reading, and reference add-ons, your cost per hour will amount to nothing
2) get a language partner, or multiple language partners. this can be done by finding Chinese people that live near you that want to improve their English. the Hellotalk app has a feature that allows you to search by location, so send out a bunch of invites and see what happens. you could also use the Conversation Exchange website or try meetup.com
3) I've recently started using iTalki to schedule mandarin lessons. make use of the trial lesson feature to rotate through some tutors until you find 1 or 2 that you are comfortable with, then go!
getting started rightaway increases the chances of you testing into a higher level class when you start proper, the reason being if you start at too low a level you risk having time wasters and dilettantes for classmates (eg, kids being sent to study Mandarin by their parents, that would rather not be there) ALTHOUGH there is absolutely no shame in going slow, or even taking a class slightly lower than your level if this means you can guarantee a solid foundation.
this is the marathon of marathons, a ten to twenty year journey, rather than what you can squeeze within a semester. it's going to be one of the hardest things you'll ever do, but it is totally worth it.
Thanks for the encouragement and the tips Ryan. Pleco was recommended to me before but was not sure if it was worth it for a total beginner. Should I wait until I have some actual instruction under my belt?
you can download the free version and give it a try. but I think the sooner you switch over to their flashcard system (which requires payment) the better. as it comes with the bundle (there are basic and pro bundles), the lesson I and another serious learner friend learnt is that paying individually for flashcards, or basic, and then upgrading is more expensive. we should have just fronted for pro at the start
Hey Wolf, I recently did a Mandarin course and I have a few suggestions. I think Duolingo is one of the best early learning apps and it's a lot of fun to use also. I think you can easily build up your basic skills with that app in the short term. I also suggest investing in a couple graded readers (search for "Chinese graded reader" on Amazon) as you get father along. Anki is great for memorization, but you can also Quizlet, where you can search for flashcard decks made by other people which contain the characters for HSK1-HSK6 (start with one and work your way up). When your reading skills get up to HSK3 or 4 you can check out the New York Times China edition which allows side-by-side English and Chinese for most of the major articles. Finally, when you get father along I suggest you check out Xinhua and Caixin as they use phrases and idioms that are not commonly encountered in news items that are translated into Chinese from other languages.
For books your taste may vary, but I wouldn't go straight to "On China". Also stay away from some of the US-China relations stuff until you get a little more familiar with the language. Some of the early books by Chinese authors that I enjoyed were the Three-body problem trilogy by Liu Cixin and detective novels by Qiu Xiaolong. I also thought "Wish Lanterns" by Alec Ash was a light but interesting read about Chinese millennials.
Thanks for the excellent recommendations Erik. Exactly what I was looking for!
I am an avid reader (in English) on the subject of China. Have read all of those with the exception of Qiu's. Will look to see if there is an English version out there. I recently read Death Notice by Zhou Haohui. Really enjoyed it and can't wait for the sequels!
Have your tried American Mandarin Society? It is specially directed to young China watchers. They are currently in the midst of a Chinese language reading challenge and could be a great resource for your studies.
Hi Kang...I am a subscriber to the AMS but to my knowledge they are operating at a much more advanced Mandarin level than me (total beginner!). But based on the reasons given for choosing the book they are reading, From the Soil, I decided I had to read it as well (in English!). Insightful book so far!.
Obligatory thank you first for all of the great work you do Bill, I've been following this for many years. Any ideas or sources of information you think are worth reviewing of the true state of the current virus spread in China? I'm curious if there's anything outside of the official stats we can review.
Not even close in Asia. China is the villain. - Durterte wouldn’t do a publicity event on 31st for donations of goods as he is smart enough to know what people in Phil’s are thinking. Doesn’t take much in Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam to set off anti-China sparks.
Additionally, there has been enough media coverage of China's attempts to change the narrative that many people. In Africa specifically, there are still racially-charged negative views toward China, and Chinese in general, regarding the origins and spread of the virus.
I went to an Indian restaurant for takeout last week, and was surprised by the anger of the Sikh owner towards the Chinese. I couldn't have predicted it.
My sister’s husband’s brother, who is Indian, is vehemently angry At China. Joking about dropping nukes angry. He’s not a Modi fan and is not ordinarily hawkish on foreign policy.
Sorry that I missed this very interesting exchange. Thanks to Bill Bishop for hosting and to everyone else for engaging. It's been a great read.
I'm visiting my girlfriend's family this weekend, and CCTV has of course been on the whole time. It is incredible - 24/7 nonstop programming that tells feel-good stories of the response in Wuhan and across China. The China propaganda machine is not to be underestimated.
In other news, schools have reopened here in Shaanxi Province for High School senior 3 students. There have been some reports of discrimination against foreigners, since one was caught on film throwing rocks at security guards and later deported. Also, according to many friends and others I know, businesses and schools are trying to have their staff work on Monday (a national holiday), of course without the 3x extra pay as mandated by China's labor law.
Hi Bill, does this C-virus threaten the durabilty of Xi’s MANDATE FROM HEAVEN? If so, how could he lose this mandate, ie what specifically would topple him?
Weekend Greetings to you from Hong Kong, Enzio von Pfeil
Good morning from sunny Shanghai.
Has anyone else seem some of the propaganda threads in Chinese circulating through social media all suggesting a non-Chinese origin to the virus? Among other things these posts -- mostly videos -- claim 1) the US aircraft carrier Roosevelt had Covid-19 infections going back to at least January, pointing toward a non-China origin to the virus; 2) there was a Patient No. Zero in Italy who picked up the virus in Hawaii and had no contact with anyone from China; 3) the virus was concocted in a US bioweapons facility. For those of you who may have seen these (as I have) I wonder who is producing these posts.
Is it really that hard to guess? The Foreign Ministry spokesman was retweeting this stuff last week. Though they are more than happy to zero in on any crackpot in the United States who seems to agree and use that as evidence there is some basis to their claims.
I guess Cui Tiankai's remarks serve a political purpose and the propaganda machinery continues to crank out its conspiracy theories even when the two are at odds...
I am very surprised that we havent seen a wave of SME and individual bankruptcies in China yet. I dont think they would have had any material revenue for the last quarter and probably for the next quarter as well.. Job losses are very likely in this scenario too.. The increase in leverage in these areas since GFC has been huge.. An income shock of this magnitude is going to wipe out all equity and declaring bankruptcy might be the most logical choice.. I wonder how the chinese govt is dealing with this tail risk (not so much a tail risk anymore i think).
US china trade war impaired free movement of goods and now we are seeing an impairment of free movement of people. How will countries ever open up borders to each other if a proper treatment/vaccine protocol is not discovered.
I don't adhere to conspiracies, but this virus is working out rather well for the Chinese. The West will be on its knees at the height of 5G competition... they seemed quite prepared for the Wuhan people (to the extent they cared). Over to you
This piece today by David Ignatius is very interesting. He is a serious reporter with very good sources, and so for him to discuss the possibility that the virus leaked from a lab is noteworthy - How did covid-19 begin? Its initial origin story is shaky. - The Washington Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/how-did-covid-19-begin-its-initial-origin-story-is-shaky/2020/04/02/1475d488-7521-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html
U.S. intelligence officials don’t think the pandemic was caused by deliberate wrongdoing. The outbreak that has now swept the world instead began with a simpler story, albeit one with tragic consequences: The prime suspect is “natural” transmission from bats to humans, perhaps through unsanitary markets. But scientists don’t rule out that an accident at a research laboratory in Wuhan might have spread a deadly bat virus that had been collected for scientific study...
To be clear: U.S. intelligence officials think there’s no evidence whatsoever that the coronavirus was created in a laboratory as a potential bioweapon...
There’s a competing theory — of an accidental lab release of bat coronavirus — that scientists have been puzzling about for weeks. Less than 300 yards from the seafood market is the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Researchers from that facility and the nearby Wuhan Institute of Virology have posted articles about collecting bat coronaviruses from around China, for study to prevent future illness. Did one of those samples leak, or was hazardous waste deposited in a place where it could spread?
Richard Ebright, a Rutgers microbiologist and biosafety expert, told me in an email that “the first human infection could have occurred as a natural accident,” with the virus passing from bat to human, possibly through another animal. But Ebright cautioned that it “also could have occurred as a laboratory accident, with, for example, an accidental infection of a laboratory worker.” He noted that bat coronaviruses were studied in Wuhan at Biosafety Level 2, “which provides only minimal protection,” compared with the top BSL-4.
I have always thought that it was a bit of a coincidence that of the perhaps hundreds of thousands of wet markets in China, in every city and town across the entire country, the virus broke out "naturally" in the one a couple hundred yards from a lab that studies coronavirus strains. Add to that a history of lab release incidents in past years and it seemed difficult to dismiss the possibility out of hand that it was an accidental release.
It felt like the CCP was actually pivoting towards this explanation officially in mid-Feb when Mr. Xiao's paper was released, at the time there was a lot of talk on Weibo and elsewhere that the wet market explanation didn't make sense and wasn't consistent with the early cases that were reported who hadn't traveled in that market. But then American politicians like Tom Cotton picked up on the news and they immediately turned around on Feb. 19th and cited a Lancet article claiming that the virus certainly had a natural origin.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-19/Lancet-releases-statement-supporting-Chinese-scientists--Od24bUkvOE/index.html
I think the nuance of whether or not it could have been an accidental release was sort of lost in the scramble to disprove the bioweapon theory. The lab release theory does pose some advantages, as this is not a problem unique to China. By going with the wet market explanation they both encouraged conspiracy theories and highlighted unfortunate stereotypes about Chinese culture that it might have been wiser to avoid. In the end, like always, they probably would have been better off just telling the truth.
There was a study published in Nature Medicine a couple weeks ago that pretty definitively rules out the laboratory origin hypothesis. The study as a whole is interesting, and I'd recommend reading the last two sections (ctrl-F "Evidence for natural evolution" and "Possible origins of the virus"). Relevant excerpt and links below
"The scientists found that the RBD portion of the SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins had evolved to effectively target a molecular feature on the outside of human cells called ACE2, a receptor involved in regulating blood pressure. The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was so effective at binding the human cells, in fact, that the scientists concluded it was the result of natural selection and not the product of genetic engineering.
This evidence for natural evolution was supported by data on SARS-CoV-2's backbone -- its overall molecular structure. If someone were seeking to engineer a new coronavirus as a pathogen, they would have constructed it from the backbone of a virus known to cause illness. But the scientists found that the SARS-CoV-2 backbone differed substantially from those of already known coronaviruses and mostly resembled related viruses found in bats and pangolins.
"These two features of the virus, the mutations in the RBD portion of the spike protein and its distinct backbone, rules out laboratory manipulation as a potential origin for SARS-CoV-2" said Andersen."
Science Daily writeup: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm
Original paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9
Yes but if they were studying naturally obtained samples in the lab and those were accidentally released, exposing large numbers of people, the transmission to human could have been effected in a scenario much more dangerous than exposure in a natural environment.
Yeah, I replied to my own comment (below) that I'd misinterpreted. Anyway, I can't help but think that in this environment, this theory will keep getting pushed in a way that:
1) serves as a distraction from our own government's failure to respond adequately
2) intensifies anti-Asian racism
I actually think the wet market explanation is more likely to fuel racism or discrimination, but that is useful for the CCP because it fits an established narrative they are trying to push about racism against Asians in the West and the CCP being their valiant defenders. Lab accident might cause people to ask questions about the government, which is a no-no.
Definitely agree that there is an element of blame-shifting involved on the part of the US administration, but that's to be expected. China kind of already played their hand unsuccessfully at shifting the narrative. Now you will see the awesome power of narrative control that the mainstream Western media can wield when it unites to find a scapegoat.
Oh I think I misinterpreted - the laboratory origin theory you're referring to is that a bat coronavirus originally captured for study leaked accidentally. Even so, it still seems like nothing more than speculation at this point, and I feel like while this:
"Accidents happen, human or laboratory. Solving the mystery of how covid-19 began isn’t a blame game, but a chance for China and the United States to cooperate in a crisis, and prevent a future one."
...is a nice sentiment, it would turn into an ugly and unproductive blame game (for which Asians in the US would of course pay the price).
thanks Bill. the bio lab in Wuhan, does it have other animals for testing and not just bats?
Re disengaement and decoupling.
I think people not involved in finance and business dont appreciate just how central Chinese manufacuring is to the current world order. It s not an exaggeration to say that the neoliberal corportist capitalism we have, in which the 0.01% win all the time at the expense of the rest, who are kept in a tolerable and distracted but ultimately hopeless/powerless existence, is founded on Chinese participation in the supply chain. In many ways Trump and his supporters /advisors habe the correct instincts but their understanding and solutions are illiterate and delusional.
It s bit like their opposite numbers regarding climate change. To solve either problem would involve the elite in the West sharing their largess and privilege out with the masses AND the masses working more in jobs they dont like for less than what they expect. Anyone telling you otherwise is lying or ill-informed. And it will take AT least one generation to execute, with a pause if not a dip in living standard (not that it s great for the young and the working poor now) during the transition.
Btw, who still remembers Ross' comment re the virus was good for the US economy?
Oh, one other question I thought was interesting: What will be the Chinese domestic reaction when U.S. citizens receive their relief checks (and small businesses, etc)?
I know from friends in Japan that the U.S. government's largesse is causing a domestic political headache for Shinzo Abe, who's proposal to issue gift cards for Wagyu beef, then his second plan to award 1000 dollars to each household, and finally his "gift" of two cloth masks to each household garnered mockery and fury from Japanese citizens. I would assume people in South Korea are also doing the math.
Given how hard hit economically China was in comparison, is this something that is going to develop into an issue for the CCP? Has the U.S. set a standard that other countries will feel obligated (or be pressured) to follow?
Here's what I would like to know:
What is going on in Beijing? The following measures do not inspire confidence that things are "back to normal".
1. March 22: All international flights diverted from Beijing http://www.caac.gov.cn/en/XWZX/202003/t20200322_201626.html
2. March 26: All foreigners banned entry https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/asia/china-virus-travel-ban.html
3. April 3: Foreign Diplomats banned entry to Beijing https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3078385/coronavirus-china-advises-foreign-diplomats-stay-away-beijing
Given that most foreign missions are probably operating on skeleton crews already, the diplomat ban is quite striking. Is any other country even considering this kind of action?
Other recent events of note that may be related: crackdown on medical PPE export from China, neighboring countries (including Cambodia) cut off all food exports, expulsion of foreign correspondents of major U.S. newspapers from China.
How could the virus come back in the fall? What are the potential economic impacts of a domestic resurgence of cases in China, and would the govt have incentives to report cases accurately if the breakout returns next year?
Hello all - long time reader, first-time commenter.
Would anyone recommend any sources/further reading on the International Liaison Department 中联部? I read up a little on it after seeing the news yesterday about how their spokesperson joined twitter. I'm going to look through Anne-Marie Brady's book but any other sources - historical or current - are welcome.
I can't really speak to the relative importance of the ILD, but the growing number of Chinese officials on Twitter and the fact this department's account comes online even after the controversy over Zhao's tweets seems to signal that they feel this method of communication is useful. I still can't get over the obvious conflict with Twitter and Facebook, et al terms of use but apparently they are okay with it as well. I did read an article that was marveling at the fact that a Chinese official charged with international engagement was on an American social media platform communicating in English for their first posting, I guess that is a strange milestone for long-time China watchers.
How will the coronavirus impact the development of sports in China? Up until the outbreak of the pandemic, China had spent considerable resources on developing sports in China. The State Council even issued several directives as late as last fall. With the 2022 Winter Olympics to be hosted in Beijing, do you see sports losing priority to support the general economy or will the government view it as even more important to deliver a "perfect" Olympics to the world?
What do you think about the power relations between the major power will look like in a year? We could see souring relations between the US and Russia and the US and China. Now the US suffered a heavy blow to due seemingly inadequate response to covid19 and China seems increasingly able to drive global perception and discourse on how good China handled eventually the crisis. Do you think this will have a positive impact on Chinese ability to further push their technology agenda for instance or after the crisis we will get back to square one where we stood before the crisis?
This guys analysis looks pretty legit on the start of the pandemic and the CCP's role in the coverup. Even the Washington Post was saying something similar today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU
Any holes in this from anyone?
This video you linked is cited as a source for this article: https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-china-trail-leading-back-to-wuhan-labs/amp/?__twitter_im
Looks like at least some major publications are taking it seriously.
The problem is that it is all circumstantial. I enjoy a well crafted theory now and then but given how opaque the CCP is the likelihood of ever finding out the truth is lower every day that passes. The origin of this virus will probably be another one of those things that is studied for a long time, but I think it's going to have an asterisk no matter what kind of web sleuthing people do in their spare time.
Hi Bill, Hope you and your family are safe and healthy. In your personal opinion, how and where do you think this covid19 originally started. Lab or “wet” market? Best, Michael Moody
Does anyone have any thoughts on the ongoing response from the Wuhan public to the protracted lockdown? There is clearly a great amount of discontent and grumbling, with sporadic outbursts and controversies such as the gratitude campaign that was quickly shut down. Will there come a point where lockdown is politically impossible to maintain? What happens when a large section of Wuhan's workers approach the brink of household financial collapse? When the (in my opinion inevitable) second wave of infections begin to spread nationally, how will Wuhan residents respond to being forced into lockdown again?
It's an important test case for governments to assess the long term viability of lockdowns, and at what point the damage to the social fabric outweighs the danger to public health. Personally, I cannot see any self-governing city or state imposing such a long and indefinite lockdown on its own people, economy, and society.
That they were ever able to sustain a lockdown that drastic in the first place is a testament to their level of societal control and the endurance of Wuhan citizens. But I think it's an important question to study. If the lockdown strategy was truly effective (according to actual experts in the scientific field) I would imagine they would have been pushing it strongly elsewhere. To your point, it would be nice to have access to the data that showed how the city "comes back to life", but I fear that's just one more important piece of data that the world will be denied due to secrecy and the need to promote positive propaganda.
Good afternoon, could anyone on the ground give us a quick update on any act of xenophobia or foreigners being ostracized due to the virus now being described as a "foreign imported sickness"? What do you see from the ground? Have you had experiences similar to this?
A Chinese partner was trying to laugh off the fact that a foreign contact brought into a signing ceremony in Jiangsu last week was being fingerpointed by stranger as "bringing the virus into the conference". A very awkward moment.
I haven’t seen anything in Shanghai. Yesterday night we went out to the former Gemma in the French concession, and all other places around like funkadeli were packed with both Chinese and foreigners together.
I am interested to see, when the pandemic begins to fade into the sunset, if and how China will respond to Taiwan being heralded (rightly so) for its response and involvement in the treatment of COVID-19. I believe China will apply my pressure and coercion to foreign states that still maintain ties with Taiwan to severe or limit them.
There is a coordination of disinformation campaign / propaganda on WeChat and Twitter now. The episode of a Chinese lady bought out PPE in rural Florida and then get arrested, with the video recording first appear in WeChat, moved to Twitter with English subtitle, and back to WeChat saying she was hated by Americans and imply she has been arrested. The quality of the fakes are poor but fooled a lot of people nonetheless. Certainly by far the majority in China (>95%?) believed it.
This, together with some WeChat call for armament and organization in the expatriate Chinese community in US, is alarming. Certainly some one is hoping for a conflict between the ethnic Chinese here and the general population. I am just wondering whether this is the work of some lonely "wolf" packs, or actually the implementation of a CCP strategy.
Bill, would you tell me if you agree with the following prediction:
"The long-term result of the pandemic will be to cement China’s place as the largest, most prosperous economy in the world. Now that the pandemic appears to be controlled in China, even if there are recurrences from foreign sources, the Chinese economy is geared to further prevention and is poised for expansion. The government has the experience and the will to target particular industries and sectors for this expansion. China didn’t do badly after the recession of 2008 because the government was proactive with directed domestic investment. The base of domestic consumption will continue to grow. The rest of the world’s problems will force China’s export sector to adapt even more quickly than before. It will either fill global vacuums (face masks?) or redirect workers and/or products to domestic consumption.
Pandemics destroy people (and businesses); wars also destroy resources and infrastructure (but helped American businesses). It's not entirely clear how these differences will play out economically. The US success following WW2 was predicated on existing full mobilization (by 1945) of industrial production, large forced savings during wartime, a large returning potential workforce, and a broad consumption base of well-supported veterans and domestic savers. And destroyed industrial sectors everywhere else in the world.
By contrast, US response to the pandemic has been a disaster, magnified by Trump’s incompetence. Political polarization/lack of unified national will is the underlying problem, but the free enterprise, laissez-faire, low tax economy will be incapable of handling the magnitude of this crisis, even with a Democratic administration. I think that China will emerge from this wreckage in a position analogous to that of the US following WW2."
What do others think, from their perspectives?
A Chinese friend writes: "The state power has grown even more after the coronavirus and has won more converts here due to information control. An economic stipulation package is now put together will further convince people that “socialism” is better than capitalism, not just in crisis management."
I would question the prediction for 2 reasons. The virus damaged the private sector in China in ways that the party hadn't been able to push through before, and the party was already moving to quash private business as much as possible. This means that the state owned enterprises are carrying all the water in China, and I do not believe that this bodes well for the Chinese economy in the long run.
Second, I have been looking for signs that the Chinese economy is picking up post corona virus, and I have not been seeing the signs of that. Specifically, I am watching commodity prices and shipping container availability in the US. There is a lag for the shipping container availability, I understand, so maybe the jury is still out. The larger question here is one of truth coming out of China. Are things really getting better there, or is there still a myriad of problems? The virus numbers that Johns Hopkins is showing from China are pure bullshit.
Strongly disagree here..America's rise post WW2 was composed of two things: 1) the utter and total destruction on all the European and Asian countries that is only achieved through total war and 2) America's inevitable rise as a superpower due to secure borders, growing population, and huge industrial and agricultural capacity that frankly can only be rivaled by a united Europe, or a united Asia. Not coincidently, that was why we went into WW2 - to prevent the formation of European (German) or Asian (Japan) empires that could in time consolidate and challenge us. China' has a lot of weaknesses and vulnerabilities and is not really close to us on point 2 above, not to mention point 1 is not happening either. Reading some of the geopolitical books from Peter Zeihan or George Friedman definitely gives some perspective on how much geopolitical advantages shape everything
Interesting points. In regard to #1, I agree (as in my second paragraph above). But today the global damage done by COVID to the US's economic functioning makes the international comparison more equal. The moral imperatives toward unity during wartime in the US were far greater than those today, while in China the sense of purposeful national pride is extraordinarily high. As far as your point #2, China's geopolitical weaknesses are lack of arable land and, therefore, food insufficiency, and up to now, energy. It's not obvious that at least some of these limitations can't be remedied by further development (and diversion) of existing national resources and technology (for energy) or by developing state-sponsored economic relations (belt and road) with other Asian countries. The possibility of a "united Asia" (your term) under Chinese domination isn't out of the question. Still, I grant you that all of this is speculative and depends on current events that are now rapidly unfolding (to put it mildly).
Thanks for the response - I think we are very far away from either one happening. For point 1, whatever economic damage the US suffers from the epidemic, you have to belive that China is feeling the same (or worse) given its reliance on global trade which is obviously heavily impacted. Second, the chances of China dominating Asia are pretty small - don't forget that Japan is a powerful and significant counterweight, along with S. Korea. US Strategy has also always been to ensure a balance of power, and thus I don't see China dominating a united Asia. the US was a recipient of fortunate circumstances because they managed to claim most of N. America for itself with no rival powers anywhere within 60000 miles, laying itself for its destiny as the lone superpower.
China is the big bad scary right now, but as it weakens in the next 10-20 years, I think you will see the US switch back to a balance of power strategy and help China to make sure that China doesn't weaken too much and give up all of Asia to Japan. It would be ironic though...
should be 6000 miles not 60000 haha
For #1, see my new post above. Just my friend's view, of course.
For #2, "In 2017, China major trading partner countries for exports were United States, Hong Kong, China, Japan, Korea, Rep. and Vietnam and for imports they were Korea, Rep., Japan, Other Asia, nes, United States and Germany."
Worldbank data
Thanks for your input. Obviously, it's very early in the pandemic, and lots will depend on how quickly it can be brought under control. I suppose the hypothetical argument about China might also apply to other, smaller Asian economies that seem to manage COVID-19 better than the West. The relative outcomes will depend on the degrees of yet-to-be-ascertained actual damage, I suppose. But the more directive Asian economies, at this point, seem a lot more nimble than Western ones. I wonder if, retrospectively, this crisis will be seen as a quantum leap of a previously gradual evolutionary process.
The jury also seems to be out on the "managed" versus "contained" methods for controlling (?) the virus, so we don't know about longer term which of the ideas will actually work better. Don't give the autocrats too much credit before it is actually due.
Yeah, I know. We travel to China just about every year (in academic circles) so I think it's important to separate deeper cultural traits (common to Asian countries) from political regimes. Sometimes I think that the CCP is "authoritarian Confucianism" in politics, and "authoritarian Keynesianism" in economic policy. The former they imbibed with mother's milk, the latter they learned on-the-fly, but very quickly.
I have two garment friends who came back down to Home in HK as they could not get anything started in terms of getting their vendors to start production, workers just not coming back. Both are upper Guangzhou. They call quite a bit as now doing the 14 day sit out.
—
That said friend in mid-stream container ops says business has started to pick up, especially reefer traffic inbound to China..
I am interested to hear from other foreigners living in China if they have been on the receiving end of increased xenophobia and/or racism since the travel ban? Some western news outlets have been reporting on it, but personally I haven't yet noticed anything much worse than the "default" level of xenophobia over the past few years.
That said, I have been on the receiving end of people leaving the sidewalk or switching seats to get away from me... but sadly I have noticed that happening all over, it doesn't just seem to be aimed at foreigners. I think people returning from Hubei are still getting the worst of it. The tension in air feels worse to me now than it did a month ago.
I live in Shanghai and have noticed no racism against foreigners.
I'm in Beijing and have been leaving my residential compound a good bit the last 3 weeks and haven't noticed anything either. The travel ban may actually help eventually as the public realizes that the foreigners who are here have been here for more than 14 days. In terms of COVID-inspired discrimination, I think people from Hubei and especially Wuhan will have a much harder time than foreigners. While there is definitely a national sentiment that they have suffered tremendously, my guess is that migrant workers from Hubei won't be allowed to return to their jobs and/or shared apartments in other cities. This is not because of any government policy per se, but because their colleagues/bosses/roommates won't accept them back.
I am convinced that COVID-19 is the 'great disruptor' of our time, and that Asian countries (including but not only the PRC) have been more adaptive, due to their abilities to undertake a whole of govt approach. So I think that China - and Xi - will emerge stronger than before, and I agree with those who believe that some additional decoupling between the US and China will occur. But some cooperation will be necessary, as pandemics such as COVID-19 are too hard and complex for any one nation to scientifically/medically solve by a 'go it alone' approach. So increasingly skillful diplomacy will be called for on both sides. The McKinsey report below is very helpful in understanding how businesses will adapt to the new/next normal:
https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Risk/Our%20Insights/COVID%2019%20Implications%20for%20business/COVID%2019%20March%2030/COVID-19-Briefing%20note-March-30-2020.ashx
Parag Khanna's article in Quartz is also excellent:
https://qz.com/1828598/the-economic-trends-that-coronavirus-wont-change/
Thanks to all of the Sinocism community and especially Bill. Stay safe and healthy.
It seems to me that the planning now has to be how we get back to work after the US peaks some time in late April, and here again we can learn from China to the exten we can get reliable data.
Seems to me that China is on the slow road to recovery. Anything or factory with a large exposure to exports will see April business 20-25% below March but orders for infrastructure are gathering pace even to speciality steel producers in Europe.
Hi Bill, Laszlo Montgomery from the China History Podcast. You'll know this. Who in the heck are all these people who have started following me these past weeks on Twitter. They mostly seem to be Chinese nationals from the looks of the account name and the organizations/people they follow. Their accounts mostly all opened in Feb-Mar-Apr. Are these actual humans? Bots? 他们到底是谁? I saw similar kinds of accounts emptying both barrels of their shotguns on Ray Kwong yesterday. Yikes!!!! Thank you sir.
Hopefully not but perhaps it’s related to your new series on Xinjiang. Really looking forward to listening to it over the next couple of months. Thanks for enlightening and entertaining us all these years with the most exciting podcast on Chinese history...the CHP!
Thanks Wolf. That's what I'm thinkin'. Part 2 coming Sunday.
Having a long history of commercial dealings in China it is no surprise that misinformation and defense of the system at the expense of the citizens of China has and is occurring. Fear of civil unrest, if leaders’ self-interest, gave cause to an old friend who says ‘most Chinese Government officials need “S” shaped beds because they can’t even sleep straight’. A shame that the government doesn’t reflect the wonderful and generous society that it so ineptly rules.
I’ve been hearing about increased anti-Asian attacks or cases of racism within the United States. To what extent is that true? Is this the case of a few bad apples highlighted by Chinese state media or is there rising overt racism within American society?
If you do a simple Twitter search, maybe with some keywords like "Asian," "discrimination," "coronavirus," "racism," etc., you'll see lots of videos of these violent instances.
I would say the fears are definitely legitimate. Personally have a friend who was walking down the street in Manhattan the other day and punched in the face by a stranger for being Asian.
I am interested in comments on this piece from FA: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-03/chinas-coming-upheaval?utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=pre_release&utm_campaign=special_send_pei_china_coming_upheaval_newsletters&utm_content=20200403&utm_term=newsletter-prerelease
It's a pretty good summary of how we got to the present moment. I don't know that it has any particular insight into what the impact of the events of JAN-APR of this year will be, but who really does at this point? I agree with their overall assessment that the U.S. strategy of sustained pressure has been and will continue to be effective.
I find it interesting becasue it is not corona-focused notwithstanding the sub-header. More sets the table for analysing how china deals with phase two, pre vaccine, and tries to get back to work. I look at SG locking down as one response to this - they have unique insight into the mainland and I expect they do not like what they see coming their way.
Hi Bill, many newspapers reported that Dr. Ai Fen disappeared but they are all based on one source: Australia 60 minutes. Do you have any information on that or do you have any advice how I can find out whether it’s true or not.
Apparently her Weibo has been updated a few times in March but the pattern is kind of reminiscent of other "missing" people who update their Chinese social media accounts, that it to say it has a bit of a "gun to my head but everything is fine" quality to it. If it fits the pattern of other cases like this she will eventually emerge from custody, make an apology, and then lay low for the foreseeable future under virtual house arrest. The publicity may make things harder for her.
Hi, several journalists have said on Twitter that the 60 minutes report was wrong
Awesome! Thank you for your response Bill.
I am intrigued at the point China is at with the virus. Angela Merkel was quoted at one point saying she thought 60-70% of Germans would be infected. A recent piece in the WSJ by Holman Jenkins Jr ("Should You Get Covid-19?") seemed to suggest that the US will undergo similar levels of infection. Both points argue that the infection is being managed rather than contained.
The Chinese view seems to be that it has been contained. Yet, if the rest of the world is only "managing" rather than "containing" it would seem that China has truly "decoupled" since the only way to "contain" when the rest of the world has let the virus run through the population is to isolate one's self. If this is so, then China has set itself apart from the world economy. Thoughts?
Former Chongqing mayor Huang Qifan actually believes this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for Chinese economy, as it will be the only country that have factories open as the virus spread in the world. He argues there will be lots of FDI flowing into China because the world will have to depend more on it for manufacturing. I disagree but interesting argument from a former senior official whose words still carry weight in Beijing. https://www.yicai.com/news/100570404.html
Yes it is kind of interesting that most of the rest of the world has adopted a strategy of "managing" rather than "containing" as you said. The risk of reinfection would be ever present in China at least until a vaccine is developed. With that in mind I don't see how they can lift travel restrictions in the medium term. They are already basically building a moat around Beijing. Even foreign diplomats are not going to be allowed to return until mid-May, per SCMP: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3078385/coronavirus-china-advises-foreign-diplomats-stay-away-beijing
In this context, any guesses on how long China will keep the entry ban on foreigners in place?
My question would be whether China can permit an inbound travel at any time in the medium term.
Probably not, but is inbound travel necessary for engagement with the world economy?
I would say, yes. I cannot see VCs and fund managers investing without being able to kick the tires. On the manufacturing side I cannot see getting production right without face to face meetings or even placing orders without seeing the operation.
Looks like travel and tourism are 11% of Chinese GDP. Is China prepared to write off that sector?
I dont think that a country's ability to "contain" a virus (as opposed to merely "managing" it) has much to do with its dependence on the world economy. Look at South Korea, for instance, which has effectively "flattened the curve," has more recoveries per day than new infections, yet has kept its borders open and never issued a wholesale shutdown of businesses and movement. A lot of this has to do with the emergency public health toolkit available domestically to each country.
"Managing" or "flattening the curve" both accept that "containment is not possible and that the virus will infect eventually a large part of the population. The public health protocol is then to seek to align infections and resources.
So SK continues to report increasing infection numbers, but at a lesser rate, and seems to have pulled the rate of infection down and in line with medical resources.
China, however, is saying no new infections (domestic) and what infections there are are all imported. But if it takes this line and wants to hold this line can it open itself up to the rest of the world any time before the virus has fully penetrated the rest of the world and spent itself? And then when it does reopen does it not risk the virus running rampant?
what will the impact of Chinese "Mask diplomacy" in Europe be on US-EU-PRC relations ?
Has HK protests gone away from China radar nor the threat, or will that reassert itself and if so when?
It looks like the problem has worsened due to an unpopular government response to COVID19 in Hong Kong. Reuters recently ran this article: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-poll-exclusive/exclusive-support-for-hong-kong-protesters-demands-rises-even-as-coronavirus-halts-rallies-poll-idUSKBN21E11L
If anything it'll get way worse, it's just being drown out right now, if I'm a business from any country with assets in hk you should get out asap, let there be no mistake, both Beijing and dc's goal is to kill Hong Kong ( in their own defined way ) if your an expat there also have a exit plan ready to go
Is the CCP still invested in spreading propaganda that the virus started outside China? Or is that on the decline? As an American, hard to tell how mainstream those conspiracies are in Chinese domestic discourse
Bill thanks for the clear and honest reporting you do! What do you think the trend will be on Chinese holding of US Debt. With our $2T-$4T of new stimulus spending and thus new debt to buy, China could increase their holdings, or with decoupling and deterioration they might decrease it. Which way do you think it will trend?
Please don't just ask me questions. I will be checking sporadically, plus you subscribers are collectively much more knowledgeable
Great Service b/t/w Bill...very helpful.
What is the Chinese Government doing to repatriate it’s student citizens from abroad? I understand commercial flights are hopelessly expensive and students will be required to quarantine at their own expense on arrival in PRC. Costs could easily reach USD10,000. Not all of these students are from wealthy families.
They have basically shut the door. As I noted in the Thursday newsletter they are making a big deal of distributing "care packages" through embassies to the overseas students. The dramatic restrictions on the flights was effectively saying the Motherland does not want you right now without having to say it explicitly.
any thoughts on the "open letter" last week on Chinese social media calling for the dilution of Pres Xi's power...it was up for 3 days, which is way longer than censors would normally allow unless someone else higher up wanted that discontent displayed..thoughts?
Hi, without knowing who wrote it, not much. there was a similar letter a few years, turned out to have been written by an overseas dissident, it was meaningless, though it does give the security services a good view into who shares it and who should be dealt with
With the Luckin Coffee news, do you think there will be any renewed push to get chinese stocks delisted from US stock markets?
Yes. It will give new impetus to this bill I think https://www.rubio.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2019/6/rubio-colleagues-introduce-bipartisan-bicameral-bill-to-ban-chinese-foreign-firms-that-flaunt-u-s-laws-from-u-s-exchanges
Completely agree. on a call this morning about this topic. just added fuel to the fire. politicians looking for anything that shows they are looking out for the US consumer.
Dominos falling? https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3078317/chinas-largest-car-rental-agent-halts-trading-hong-kong-shares-plunge-amid
My sense is that even if China covered up their numbers, the CCP's legitimacy was on the line and therefore the Party leadership no longer had the political incentive to completely lie about MACRO-TRENDS. So yes, they may have reported 80,000 cases instead of 150,000, but could they seriously be lying about a dramatic decrease in new infections (macro trend) when in reality, there's an apocalypse unfolding on the ground? I think not. What do you think? I'm in so many debates with people in my circles that Chinese numbers are fake and that they had hundreds of thousands of cases, but I tend to brush these people off because I believe the Chinese system has internal checks that would systemically discourage lying about MACRO trends
I think the official numbers are low but not by an order of magnitude
Bill I really disagree, everybody we talk to who is coming out of China says there’s just a lot more sick people up there, and this comes all the way from GuangZhou to Xiamen..But here’s the rub, I think that tells us The toll the disease takes in terms of life is not as bad as thought. That may be small point now that the world economy is shut down, but in both China and the rest of the world the misery of that economic shut down may well outweigh the virus itself
If today's action by SG, and the increased new case announced today out of Taiwan and South Korea, then the Chinese numbers have to be understated, perhaps more than one order of magnitude, particularly now that people are going back to work. Seems that there is no way to prevent this without suppressing the virus altogether, which will require a vaccine.
Isn't it more likely that China's numbers are significantly lower than actual cases because they didn't test extensively (unlike ROK and Germany) rather than deliberately hiding the number of known cases?
Good point - I have yet to see an official count of tests conducted by Chinese authorities. I've encountered many sources saying that China has probably tested the highest number of people by far (in the millions.) A month ago, my friends entering Shanghai were saying every single person at the airport was getting tested. So there's no question they're testing a huge number of completely healthy people.
As for the actual numbers from Wuhan during the peak, it's entirely possible that just like in New York now, only people with the most severe people ended in hospitals and were able to be tested. Likely that the asymptomatic people -- just like in the US -- would have stayed home instead of going into the hospital to get tested (why would they?) Pretty much what is happening in America. In two months, could China accuse America of purposefully underreporting asymptomatic cases? Difficult questions. We in America are essentially producing the same results as China without the criminal intent we are quick to ascribe to Chinese public health authorities. Which isn't to absolve the Chinese of blame. Just saying, we ourselves in America dont even know the extent of our own outbreak!
i wish everyone would differentiate between anti-china/anti Asian rhetoric and that of the CCP.
In practice there's no way that's really possible, that's even harder in a sense than the "I'm against extreme islam but totally that won't spill over to Muslim in general" sure, you individually might be able to walk that line, but if you want society in general to achieve that, good luck
While it may be difficult, the generally positive media coverage of Taiwan during this whole thing suggests that differentiating between ethnically Chinese people and the CCP isn't impossible.
Me think you don't actually follow the discourse within Taiwan itself, let's just point out that the main narrative, especially those that are hostile to Beijing, is WAY more hostile to the general Chinese population than those elsewhere except Hong Kong
Hey Bill - hope you and your family are holed up ok. Any thoughts on whether china will make any military moves now that COVID has been found on two US Aircraft Carriers in the Pacific? https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/covid-19-cases-reported-on-both-us-aircraft-carriers-in-western-pacific/
There might be a bigger chance the US invades china
Since invasion is impossible .....
Not funny
there is a few 1000 bad boy ICBMs in the US and a few 1000 trident missiles in subs that will probably make them think twice about that.
I doubt the pla or usn care much about temporary gains in scs, if we're talking about Taiwan or something, the timeline and stake gets way too far for a virus advantage ( if it exists ) to be decisive
Bill, do you think China will take any military action since the two aircraft carriers in the western pacific are out of commission at the moment?
Aircraft Carriers are docked, not out of commission. Air Wings still available and the carriers can, if needed, "fight sick".
I hope not, that would be a very stupid move, and I think unlikely given how it flies in the face of the main propaganda thrust coming from Beijing about how the PRC is a responsible major power trying to help the world fight the pandemic.
How much of the rhetoric around China "covering up" its total count of confirmed cases is actually true, as opposed to Chinese authorities themselves having no idea the extent of the virus? It seems like the same criticism against the China could be activated against the US: namely, Los Angeles famously gave up on testing even suspected patients unless they're exhibiting severe symptoms and need to be admitted. In other words, it appears that the US is also excluding a vast number of "asymptomatic" people from their official count. Of course, the issue is intentionality. But how are we so sure the Chinese literally sat there and maliciously decided to distort their numbers? Do we have the evidence for that?
There's some of both obviously, but the current fixation on numbers seems far more about deflecting blame from themselves. Boris and Trump were still tweerling their thumbs when Italy was imploding. Hard to argue that's China's fault
Great point. I like to point out that South Korea and the US had their first confirmed case on the same exact day. If the US logic goes that China is to blame for the massive scale of the US outbreak, South Korea was operating on the exact same timeline with the same exact (misleading) information coming out of China, and still did fine. Another thing to add: South Korea never banned travel from China, and has STILL not banned travel from China. That has nothing to do with an effective, competent domestic public health response.
I'm alarmed at how there has been a surge of anti-China op eds generated. I'm not naive, there are issues, but the implication of these opinions is that total disengagement is the only way. I believe the best way is ongoing dialogue and people to people links, but these arguments are far harder to make than a simplistic, but unrealistic, 'let's boycott China' line. How do we make the case for ongoing engagement to avoid eventual confrontation?
I think you forget that much of this is driven by China. The expulsion of the initial three WSJ journalists was China. The military action near Taiwan and the South China Sea. The claims that the virus comes from the U.S., then Italy, the kidnapping of foreign nationals, the tantrum and threat-based diplomacy, the defective COVID-19 tests and PPE, the list goes on and on. I find it disingenuous to frame it as an action from the West when China is begging for the world to disengage. This is a reaction.
Like I said, there are issues. I'm a libertarian I don't like many things China does. But to say the west is just reacting to China is not true either. But all this misses my main point - which is what strategy do we use? Disengage/boycott (leading to severe tension and increased danger) or engage somehow. The latter seems to be the only option. So how?
I don't see engagement as the only option. To be completely frank, I see only a choice between bad options. To engage and to continue to fuel China's bad behavior, or to disengage and risk hurting Chinese people. Both bad, but this is by China's design. All I know is that we've only tried one of the two options.
I just don't see how disengagement is remotely possible. Even the us administration pushed back on Trump's plan to stop us firms selling to Huawei as they needed the sales. China's market is to big to ignore. Engagement will go on. But unless it is less naive it not bring positive change
My take is that Trump's strong trade tactics with China has taken a turn for the worse by building a cross party anti-China feeling that it is time to contain China's rise. Some of my friends are telling me that policy with China was driven by the corporate sector; its now the turn of NSC, the intelligence agencies and State. This will get very much worse over the coming years as America will use all of its resources to contain China. China knows this and has prepared contingency plans. watch this space!
Of course it doesn't have to be an all or nothing. But it makes sense to make major adjustments that anyone averse to short-term pain will dislike, especially those in the U.S. administration. Don't mistake resistance among Americans for unsound policy.
Even politics aside, it is perfectly clear now that medical supply manufacturing, for example, must be spread out to other places in case one country goes into crisis. This is a lesson that I'm sure many countries, not just the U.S., are learning the hard way.
And i'd agree with a strategy of re-shoring to secure supply chains and of much more scrutiny on loss of advanced tech through acquisition by China or via naive university collaborations. This needs tightening up. But I want to know what positive engagements would work best alongside these sticks, to effect change.
Peter, I want to second your sentiment and add a comment. There is mutual ignorance/intolerance in both US and Chinese media circles. I, like you, believe this is best combatted with increased dialogue/engagement across all levels of society, but I struggle to see how we get there without completely rethinking how we structure such engagement. What do I mean? I spent a year of high school at a special program that sent 40 US students to live with Chinese host families and learn Chinese. I currently attend a US University with a first-class Chinese exchange program with Tsinghua University. Both programs have struggled to retain student interest in the past 5-10 years, and the coronavirus was the last straw. Starting this year programs are closed indefinitely with no plans to reopen after Coronavirus dissipates. The sad reality is that Educational and Diplomatic engament has not worked for the US for a long time, and this virus is simply the nail in the coffin. The Sinocisim
Community is a group of smart people, maybe we can rethink this together?
Are you referring to the IUP program? If so, that's disappointing, as I was considering spending applying for it next year (I'm not a student anymore)
I just don’t think it’s realistic to think that type of engagement is a productive strategy when China has doubled-down on ultra-nationalism.
Two questions: What type of engament do you think is possible then? And do you think that Trump and Peter Navarro’s strand of American Nationalism is the right counter response to China?
Just as another data point, its been interesting for an organization like ours (US-China Business Council), we've tried to place two OpEds these past two weeks. One was on removing tariffs as a stimulus and humanitarian effort, the other on leveraging the crisis to rethink US-China relations. Neither was accepted. Lots of facts can contribute to that, of course, but there does seem to be a trend to accept OpEds that are more strident in tone generally.
The two sides share the same basic goals: they both want to see better human rights in China. One side uses simplistic, nationalistic 'boycott', the other the more subtle, but more effective suggestions like yours here, Jake. What I'd like to see is a strategy that thinks through a sensible way forward, which will be a combination of actions, some positive some with a harder edge
Not to be inflammatory but US-China Business Council is about business and not human rights. The engagement team has done nothing on human rights since time of Clinton when it needed too for MFN.
So you can say my world is one of nationalism and ignorance, but let’s take engagement to the American voters and see what happens.
I think many groups are beginning to think about what China policies to recommend to the next administration (President Trump second term or President Biden), but its very early to fully appreciate the implications of COVID-19. I agree with what Bill noted above, this will accelerate decoupling selectively in the healthcare space first, but I'm even hearing thoughtful free traders raise concerns about an over reliance on Chinese inputs in some industries. I suspect a retrenching and "regionalization" of supply chains going forward to diversify supply chain risk going forward while at the same time US companies invest more in China to access the local market.
WSJ, Washington Post.
Hi Bill and the rest of the Sinocism community. I am scheduled to start Mandarin language school in the fall but now that I find myself with more free time could you recommend any strategies, applications, or online courses that would better prepare me in the interim? I've jumped into memorizing the more common characters using Anki and was wondering if I'm on the right track or not.
On a side note I think this forum with its wealth of knowledge and experience would be a great one for creating recommendation lists for novices or improving China watching. I’m thinking Mandarin learning, reading lists, where to shop for China-related paraphernalia (books, art, furniture, etc), knowledge networks, etc.
To build on some of the other comments my suggestion is to think about your reasons for learning the language and let this guide your focus. I've spent around 10 years in and out of China in finance and government jobs that have used Mandarin on a day-to-day basis, and will tailor the advice on similar -I have always targeted practical language over perfection. If you were looking to learn for academia, the advice might be very different.
- I saw someone mention reading/writing is less important than speaking and listening. I completely agree that at the beginning speaking is much more important, and I second some of the other comments that you need a language partner or can use tools such as Italki. Podcasts or Youtube could also be useful in building up listening, but you do need someone who can give you honest feedback on your pronunciation.
- Spend some time at the beginning with a teacher going through pinyin and getting the pronunciation right. It will be boring if you do it properly but will help in the long run. This doesn't need to be the sole thing you study, but it's vitally important to get a good foundation of the sounds and tones.
- However, I do believe reading is important, even if reading is not part of your goal. Apart from Mandarin I have learned up to intermediate level Korean. That language has a lot of similarities as well as differences, but one difficulty I found is the large number of homonyms; especially the same syllable, different meaning. In mandarin this is the same, although you have tones to help to differentiate. It may depend on your learning style, but I think I would find it difficult to hook so many meanings on similar sounds without the character reference and avoiding reading could become a block of moving beyond an intermediate level.
- In terms of traditional or simplified it again depends where you want to go. I learned simplified because at the time I was learning it was designed to be used in the Mainland, and hence biased, but would suggest following this. You can learn either traditional or simplified and transfer across (I spent 3 years in HK and can read traditional okay), but I do think simplified will take less time to learn, even if they are less beautiful and hold less information.
- For learning characters and to read, I would not recommend memorising on anki or pleco or similar (although Pleco is highly highly recommended anyway). You need to learn them in context and a teacher can help with this. The only part of characters that I think are valuable to batch learn are the radicals - around 100 most common building blocks that will speed up learning the rest of the characters.
The pinyin advice here is spot on! Crucial to build the right pronunciation habits from the start. Learn the proper tongue placement for pinyin initials.
Thanks for the advice Doug...I will have a native speaker teaching me one-on-one starting in the Fall for a lengthy intensive course. I am just trying to do as much as I can (with all this newly acquired free time) to get ahead of the game between now and then. This discussion has been so helpful!
Wolf,
I've gone from total beginner to HSK 5 (working on 6), so I have some strong views and lessons learned.
Ask yourself if you really want to/need to read. For many learners, when they envision their ideal state and future context of using Chinese, it doesn't often involve reading. When they realize the toil involved in learning to read, they amend their goal. If you don't need to read or it is a light goal, I recommend focusing on speaking and listening.
If you must read, focus on Traditional Characters and ignore simplified. First, traditional characters are beautiful. Second, most early learners believe them to be more complicated, but they actually contain more meaning clues for the foreign learner than simplified characters. Third, they are more practical for a foreigner to learn because you will probably end up traveling to Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, or Chinatowns around the world where you will encounter them. If you make a career of it and end up digging deeper in the language, it will be easier for you to learn classical Chinese or read first hand sources. Finally - this is my hypothesis, and if I was a teacher I would devise experiments to prove it - it will be easy for you to read simplified texts if you come across them having studied traditional, but difficult to read traditional texts if you only study simplified.
Good luck! 下功夫不負有心人.
Thank you for taking the time to give me some excellent advice David. Reading is certainly in third place behind listening and speaking as reasons why I’m doing it. How distant a third is unclear at this point but I appreciate the sage advice. I’ve just started memorising traditional characters so based on what you’ve said I‘ll try to stick to that.
Hi Wolf, you mentioned that you are an AMS member. While AMS' materials are definitely geared towards HSK 5+ learners, I recommend checking out the interview they did with Robert Daly about learning Chinese. He's very insightful and covers some of the bad habits you don't want to pick up. Also, for learning about China, Bill Kirby, Peter Bol, and others did an amazing job on their free, 10 part course: https://www.edx.org/chinax-chinas-past-present-future. Anyone who does all 10 parts would learn as much as taking 2-4 Chinese history courses. And knowing at least the basics of Chinese history, especially 1600 onwards, is as fundamental to understanding China as the language.
Wonderful recommendations William. Thanks so much for taking the time. I missed Daly's interview with AMS. Had the pleasure of once going to a workshop he was in. What a fountain of knowledge and experience. Will definitely check that out.
Will also check out the history course as well. I've got a decent non-Mandarin speaking background with China but I am always looking for new avenues for knowledge. Will add Kirby et al to the likes of Laszlo Montgomery at the CHP.
Hi Wolf, 3 tips:
1) download and pay for the Pleco Professional Bundle. serious learners will spend hundreds, maybe thousands of hours on this thing, esp. if you switch to using the flashcards. besides this, there are different dictionary, reading, and reference add-ons, your cost per hour will amount to nothing
2) get a language partner, or multiple language partners. this can be done by finding Chinese people that live near you that want to improve their English. the Hellotalk app has a feature that allows you to search by location, so send out a bunch of invites and see what happens. you could also use the Conversation Exchange website or try meetup.com
3) I've recently started using iTalki to schedule mandarin lessons. make use of the trial lesson feature to rotate through some tutors until you find 1 or 2 that you are comfortable with, then go!
getting started rightaway increases the chances of you testing into a higher level class when you start proper, the reason being if you start at too low a level you risk having time wasters and dilettantes for classmates (eg, kids being sent to study Mandarin by their parents, that would rather not be there) ALTHOUGH there is absolutely no shame in going slow, or even taking a class slightly lower than your level if this means you can guarantee a solid foundation.
this is the marathon of marathons, a ten to twenty year journey, rather than what you can squeeze within a semester. it's going to be one of the hardest things you'll ever do, but it is totally worth it.
Thanks for the encouragement and the tips Ryan. Pleco was recommended to me before but was not sure if it was worth it for a total beginner. Should I wait until I have some actual instruction under my belt?
you can download the free version and give it a try. but I think the sooner you switch over to their flashcard system (which requires payment) the better. as it comes with the bundle (there are basic and pro bundles), the lesson I and another serious learner friend learnt is that paying individually for flashcards, or basic, and then upgrading is more expensive. we should have just fronted for pro at the start
Well I'm in it for the long haul so I will take your advice. Thanks again for taking the time to write up these recommendations. Really appreciated.
Hey Wolf, I recently did a Mandarin course and I have a few suggestions. I think Duolingo is one of the best early learning apps and it's a lot of fun to use also. I think you can easily build up your basic skills with that app in the short term. I also suggest investing in a couple graded readers (search for "Chinese graded reader" on Amazon) as you get father along. Anki is great for memorization, but you can also Quizlet, where you can search for flashcard decks made by other people which contain the characters for HSK1-HSK6 (start with one and work your way up). When your reading skills get up to HSK3 or 4 you can check out the New York Times China edition which allows side-by-side English and Chinese for most of the major articles. Finally, when you get father along I suggest you check out Xinhua and Caixin as they use phrases and idioms that are not commonly encountered in news items that are translated into Chinese from other languages.
For books your taste may vary, but I wouldn't go straight to "On China". Also stay away from some of the US-China relations stuff until you get a little more familiar with the language. Some of the early books by Chinese authors that I enjoyed were the Three-body problem trilogy by Liu Cixin and detective novels by Qiu Xiaolong. I also thought "Wish Lanterns" by Alec Ash was a light but interesting read about Chinese millennials.
Thanks for the excellent recommendations Erik. Exactly what I was looking for!
I am an avid reader (in English) on the subject of China. Have read all of those with the exception of Qiu's. Will look to see if there is an English version out there. I recently read Death Notice by Zhou Haohui. Really enjoyed it and can't wait for the sequels!
Sorry "farther". Autocorrect running wild.
Have your tried American Mandarin Society? It is specially directed to young China watchers. They are currently in the midst of a Chinese language reading challenge and could be a great resource for your studies.
Hi Kang...I am a subscriber to the AMS but to my knowledge they are operating at a much more advanced Mandarin level than me (total beginner!). But based on the reasons given for choosing the book they are reading, From the Soil, I decided I had to read it as well (in English!). Insightful book so far!.
Obligatory thank you first for all of the great work you do Bill, I've been following this for many years. Any ideas or sources of information you think are worth reviewing of the true state of the current virus spread in China? I'm curious if there's anything outside of the official stats we can review.
Has the COVID pandemic been an overall boon or negative for public opinion on China?
Initially, it seemed to be degrading, but it seems like that might have changed.
Not even close in Asia. China is the villain. - Durterte wouldn’t do a publicity event on 31st for donations of goods as he is smart enough to know what people in Phil’s are thinking. Doesn’t take much in Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam to set off anti-China sparks.
Additionally, there has been enough media coverage of China's attempts to change the narrative that many people. In Africa specifically, there are still racially-charged negative views toward China, and Chinese in general, regarding the origins and spread of the virus.
I went to an Indian restaurant for takeout last week, and was surprised by the anger of the Sikh owner towards the Chinese. I couldn't have predicted it.
My sister’s husband’s brother, who is Indian, is vehemently angry At China. Joking about dropping nukes angry. He’s not a Modi fan and is not ordinarily hawkish on foreign policy.