Meeting for senior officials on Fourth Plenum spirit; More PLA purges?; He Lifeng at Davos; Officials talk up fiscal and financial “stimulus”
Summary of today’s top items:
1. Meeting for senior officials on Fourth Plenum spirit - Xi Jinping gave a speech Tuesday at the opening of a special study session for principal officials at the provincial and ministerial level on studying and implementing the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee at the 20th at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee (National Academy of Governance). He holds these meetings after each Plenum, at varying intervals from the conclusion of those big conclaves. Among the highlights from his comments:
Xi Jinping emphasized that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee made strategic arrangements for economic and social development during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, which must be comprehended and grasped comprehensively, profoundly, and accurately. “Comprehensively” means understanding the spirit of the plenary session with a global vision, grasping the various arrangements as a whole, and not attending to one thing while losing sight of another. “Profoundly” means knowing not only the “what” but also the “why”—understanding what it is, why it is so, and how to do it—truly understanding it thoroughly. “Accurately” means precisely grasping policy boundaries and scales, doing what must be done, striving to do what can be done, and resolutely not doing what should not be done.
习近平强调，党的二十届四中全会对“十五五”时期经济社会发展作出战略部署，要全面深刻准确领会和把握。全面，就是要以全局视野领会全会精神，将各项部署作为一个整体来把握，不能顾此失彼。深刻，就是要知其然又知其所以然，既明白是什么，又明白为什么、怎么做，真正理解透彻。准确，就是要精准把握政策界限和尺度，做到该为的必须为、能为的努力为、不该为的决不为。
Xi Jinping pointed out that China’s development is currently in a period where strategic opportunities coexist with risks and challenges, and where uncertain and unpredictable factors are increasing. When analyzing the situation, we must consider all factors comprehensively and be adept at grasping new changes in key factors such as the international situation and the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation. We must keep the overall situation in mind and take a high vantage point, maintaining determination strategically while planning meticulously tactically, to constantly enhance the certainty and sustainability of China’s development.
习近平指出，我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期。我们分析形势，既要把各种因素考虑周全，又要善于把握其中一些关键因素如国际形势、新一轮科技革命和产业变革等的新变化。要胸怀全局、登高望远，在战略上保持定力，在战术上精心运筹，不断增强我国发展的确定性和可持续性。
I have posted a full translation of the readout here.
Perhaps the most interesting takeaway from the CCTV report on the meeting is who appears to have been absent, as I discuss in the next item.
2. Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli in trouble? - Central Military Commission (CMC) vice chair Zhang Youxia and CMC member Liu Zhenli appear to have been absent from today’s opening of that study session. CMC vice chair Zhang Shengmin attended and appeared in the CCTV report. So now rumors that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli are in trouble are cycling up, and may be correct. It would be something if Zhang Youxia is in trouble given his long relationship with Xi, and his network throughout the PLA.
The next expected public appearances for Zhang Youxia will be the January Politburo meeting, assuming it is publicized and CCTV broadcast footage from inside the meeting, and then the annual event for retired senior officers ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. If Zhang is absent from those, then something is going on, either health or political.
If the CMC is now reduced to two members - Chairman Xi Jinping and vice chair Zhang Shengmin - then questions about operational effectiveness of the PLA are fair. However, if this is a final part of a generational decapitation of PLA leadership, the younger, replacement generation may be real wolf warriors, so assuming this apparent chaos inside the PLA means the risks to Taiwan are lower may be risky.
Politburo member Shi Taifeng, now head of the Organization Department, was not shown in the CCTV report either. Nor was Ma Xingrui, though at this point it is clear Ma is in real trouble.
3. He Lifeng in Davos - In his speech to the gathering, the Vice Premier made the expected points about multilateralism, and also said that China does not intentionally pursue a trade surplus. Given the $1.2 Trillion surplus they just recorded for 2025, I am not sure that was the right thing to say to an audience that is already concerned about PRC mercantilism. But then again, given the chaos the US has unleashed this week, a lot of people may believe China is one of the adults in the room now.
He also met with US Treasury Secretary Bessent, and while no details of their meeting have come out, Bessent did say that the PRC has now completed its first commitment to buy 12 million tons of soybeans.