Qu Qingshan on why Xi is needed for many more years; More infrastructure stimulus also needed; H-20 strategic bomber

Summary of today’s Essential Eight:

1. Qu Qingshan on why Xi is needed for many more years - Today we have a 10,000+ character exposition by Qu Qingshan 曲青山, head of the Institute of Party History and Literature of the CPC Central Committee, in the CCDI/NSC newspaper - "Understanding and Grasping the "Two Establishes" from the Future Dimension 从未来维度认识把握’两个确立’".

2. More stimulus - Bloomberg reports that the local government may be allowed to raise $220 billion dollars in special bonds over the remainder of this year, to drive more infrastructure investment to support the economy, but cannibalizing from 2023. It seems highly unlikely this step will get the full year GDP growth rate to the 5.5% target, and if the report is true it is another sign of just how difficult the true economic situation likely is.

3. Li Keqiang pushes officials from Shanghai, Fujian, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong to help stabilize the economy

4. Outbreaks - Shanghai has not said it has found any BA.5 cases, but both Tianjin and Beijing say they have detected BA.5 cases linked to international travelers who first quarantined in Shanghai. Shanghai’s Gaokao, delayed for a month, is now underway in the city.

5. H-20 strategic stealth bomber test imminent? - A remark by the Party chief of the Chinese Flight Test Establishment under the state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) has led to a new round of speculation that the long-awaited H-20 strategic stealth bomber may finally be unveiled.

6. Liu Jieyi on Taiwan - Liu Jieyi 刘结一, head of the Taiwan Affairs Office, is likely on the short list to replace Wang Yi as foreign minister. In today’s People’s Daily he has a long article that talks about an overall strategy for “reunification” with Taiwan.

7. US government employee accused of helping PRC target dissidents -According to this superseding indictment, a retired Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Official who became a private investigator was hired by PRC security services to obtain information on PRC dissidents in the US, and as part of his job he bribed former colleagues still working at the DHS to give him non-public information on the targets.

8. Next phase in south-to-north water diversion project

Thanks for reading, and I hope to see many of you in tomorrow’s weekly discussion.

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The Essential Eight

1. Qu Qingshan on why Xi is needed for many more years

Today we have a 10,000+ character exposition by Qu Qingshan 曲青山, head of the Institute of Party History and Literature of the CPC Central Committee, in the CCDI/NSC newspaper - "Understanding and Grasping the "Two Establishes" from the Future Dimension 从未来维度认识把握’两个确立’". I believe it is an excerpt from his recent book “从五个维度认识把握’两个确立’ Understanding and grasping ‘two establishes’ from five dimensions”.

Some of this will be familiar if you have read the Third Historical Resolution, much of it is focused on the geopolitical environment and Xi's diagnosis of the challenges and opportunities arising from the great changes underway, and the strategy he has set to navigate the complex environment and achieve the great rejuvenation. Qu makes it clear that the Xi's thought and leadership will be needed for the foreseeable future, and it is interesting that such a long piece is published in the CCDI/NSC newspaper, then of course republished across many sites including People's Daily online. While it avoids some of the over the top language others have used like "leader/领袖“ and ”helmsman/掌舵着“，it reads to me as an important stage-setting piece for the 20th Party Congress and Xi's continued rule. 

Qu, who played a key role in drafting the Third Historical Resolution, is also the author of an essay that was excerpted in People's Daily in December 2021 that was misread and led to an early round of speculation that Xi was somehow in trouble. As I wrote in the January 3 Sinocism:

The following article was making the rounds over the holiday, with lots of comments that it is a sign Xi is somehow in trouble. It is based on a totally flawed premise, that a December 9 piece by Qu Qingshan, president of the Institute of Party History and Literature, that was part of the ongoing People's Daily series to study the spirit of the 6th Plenum, and is actually an essay by Qu in the official study reader issued after the Plenum, is somehow signaling opposition to Xi. I read the original piece and ignored it for the newsletter because it seemed to be a regurgitation of the relevant sections of the third historical resolution, of which Qu was one of the key drafters.

The fact that this piece, totally off base in its speculation, got so much traction is I guess a sign of lots of wishful thinking out there that somehow Xi will just go away and someone "nicer" will replace him. Hope is not a strategy, especially when it based on fundamental misreadings.

Unsurprisingly, Qu’s article is getting top billing on the CCDI website:

Qu’s essay - 从未来维度认识把握“两个确立”

I hope someone translates this in full, I am only going to include a brief excerpt, about US-China relations:

The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is destined to be an extraordinary journey that will change history and create the future. On the other hand, Western countries, led by the United States, do not want to see the emergence of a strong China, much less a strong socialist China. The United States regards China as a strategic competitor and has launched comprehensive containment and extreme pressure on China from all aspects, including science and technology, economy, politics, military and diplomacy, in an attempt to obstruct the historical process of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and China is facing a complicated international environment. The struggle between two social systems and two ideologies will also be long-term, complex, arduous and severe. The strategic contest between China and the United States is bound to last for a long period of time, for which we must be fully prepared ideologically and work.

中华民族伟大复兴注定是一场改变历史、创造未来的非凡历程。另一方面，以美国为首的西方国家不愿意看到一个强大中国的出现，更不愿意看到一个强大的社会主义中国的出现。美国将中国视为战略竞争对手，从科技、经济、政治、军事、外交等各方面对我国展开全面遏制和极限施压，企图阻挠中华民族伟大复兴的历史进程，我国面临的国际环境错综复杂。两种社会制度、两种意识形态的斗争也将是长期的、复杂的、艰巨的、严峻的。中美之间的战略博弈，势必持续一个较长的时期，我们对此必须做好充分的思想准备和工作准备。