Self-reliance; Apple's sad China story; Dark side of the moon

Happy New Year! I hope all of you had a wonderful holiday.

It is always hard to restart after time off as I will inevitably miss some important things. Everything should be back to normal by Monday.

Apple spooked investors and global markets with a downward revision of its Q1 guidance due to disappointing sales in China. The Apple shortfall looks to be more evidence that China’s economy may be slowing markedly. The Central Economic Work Conference in December made clear the government is aware of the pressure and while no massive stimulus was announced, or is expected, the Party is not going to let things go off the rails without a fight so if Apple really is a bellwether of a precipitous drop in consumer confidence then expect stronger measures soon. But I am not convinced Apple’s problems don’t have at least as much to do with local competitors and a disappointing product portfolio given its premium pricing.

The data for the next two next months will be skewed, as they always are aroun…