Surprise US-China trade de-escalation; Rare earths; National security white paper; China-Latin America Forum in Beijing

I am attending the US Chamber of Commerce China Business Conference on Tuesday so there will be no newsletter on May 13th, but I will publish an episode of Sharp China that we recorded this afternoon on the US-China trade drama.

I am late to writing about this, and all of you must be a bit sick of the news about the surprising outcome of the US-China trade talks in Geneva over the weekend in which both sides agreed to significantly reduce tariffs for ninety days while establishing a formal dialogue mechanism to discuss trade and economic issues. The average rates are still high, perhaps an average of 40+% on PRC goods and 30+% on US goods, but I think people are still trying to figure out the exact amounts.

Both sides looked to have blinked but I think the US side blinked harder. In addition to the significant reduction of tariffs rates on PRC goods imported into the US for ninety days, the establishment of a dialogue mechanism with designated leadership (Bessent and Greer on the US si…