Summary of today’s Essential Eight:

1. Taiwan and Pelosi - The US House starts its summer recess after the last vote this Friday. So far there are no indications that Speaker Pelosi will cancel her reported visit to Taiwan, but there have been plenty of leaks that the Biden Administration does not want her to go. One thing to watch will be whether the PRC’s public, authoritative warnings increase in volume and intensity before the end of the July. Unless there is some sort of credible off-ramp for her I think she will go, that Xi will overreact, and then there will be a crisis. US officials are worried not so much because they think a trip may scramble plans for a Biden-Xi call before the end of July, but rather due to the fact that there are valid reasons to believe we may be headed into the most dangerous period of US-China relations, and PRC-Taiwan relations, in decades.

2. Outbreaks and vaccines - The deputy head of the National Health Commission said that the country’s top leaders have …