Tariff spiral; Xi climbs into a nuclear sub; Huawei's Australian troubles; National real estate registration database; Debates about engagement and illiberalism; Spiritual spine straightening; Truckers strike
Happy Dragon Boat Festival! China is on holiday today.
I missed a busy week and I appreciate your patience. Unfortunately I need to go to a funeral in Boston this Thursday so there will likely be no newsletter Thursday. I will make it up to you.
The Trump-Kim summit was a generally positive event for China. Trump endorsed Beijing's long-advocated "freeze for freeze" proposal and Xi is certainly happy with a reduction in immediate risk of war or chaos on the Korean Peninsula. But with the benefit of a few days reflection I think it is premature to conclude that China is the victor.
Trump gave Xi Jinping a sour June 15 birthday present when the US announced details of the planned $50 Billion in tariffs. None will go into effect until July 6 so there is time for further negotiation, but the immediate Chinese response of $50 Billion tariffs increases the likelihood of a downward tit-for-tat spiral, and we may even see a US announcement of the next $100 Billion tariffs imminently.