Trade deal progress; Politburo reports to Xi; Demographics; Confucius Institutes

The official spin cycle is revving up to sell any trade agreement with China as a huge win, even though I am still hearing the mooted deal is far from what the US originally wanted. One of the PR talking points from the Trump Administration seems to be that this is a "process" and the US can't expect to get everything in just one deal.

The Chinese side is messaging that their concessions are huge and they may be difficult for Xi to accept, or to implement in the near term. So while clearly there is momentum towards a deal the details are not done, and probably will not be until Trump and Xi meet in late March.

Kim Jong-un will return home to North Korea through China this weekend. There is speculation that he may stop in Beijing this time to meet with Xi but so far nothing is confirmed. The Chinese side wanted more progress from this second summit and would very much like to officially loosen sanctions on the DPRK.

Perhaps Beijing will see Trump’s decision to walk away from the Kim summi…