Hi everyone, I wanted to send out my thoughts on President’s Trump comments this morning about the US-China relationship. I will follow up later with a normal newsletter. Several of you wrote to me yesterday that you thought I was being overly pessimistic about the prospects for the US-China trade deal, and that more likely President Trump is putting on a show but has no intention of actually pulling the trigger.
Though Trump is certainly given to theatrics, I would not accuse him of doing so with some rationale. Throughout the trade war his twitter theatrics and tirades, even if borne of genuine anger, were still likely rooted in a bargaining strategy. Thus, one could call them 'bluffs' that he never intended to pull the trigger on.
At this point with the dark cloud of the Coronavirus swirling over the trade deal, China is no position economically to meet its obligations nor is there any political will to do so. The Republican's unified blame China strategy only further deteriorate negotiation conditions. This makes me doubt that Trump's tirades have any bargaining logic, leaving only the possibility that they are genuine threats.
"Blow up the trade deal" was always a legitimate option in the eyes of some within the administration. As November draws nearer and the（administration's botched) pandemic response dominates the election, domestic political prerogatives almost necessitate that Republicans and Trump hedge their bets on a China scapegoat strategy. What better (should I say expedient) options do they have?
I often agree that you are prone to being overly pessimistic, but this time I think there is significant evidence from many corners of Washington that the train has left the station on US-Sino rapprochement in the short-term. The Coronavirus will be the nail in the coffin---It's too politically convenient to not be polemicized by anti-China hawks inside and outside the administration.
This is developing into a worst-case denouement of the presidency of Donald Trump.
The United States has never elected a politician so arbitrarily willful to a position of such power. Trump's down to his last few policy options, facing an election he has a good chance of losing. He realizes his only policy options are magical exhortations to restart the economy or, failing that, to excoriate China and hope he can inflame and distract American voters. So, heedless of the human costs of the pandemic he will try to reopen the economy and, again heedless of the possible human costs, he will inflame tensions with China.
Trump's always had the instincts of a gambler in business, with bankruptcy as his Plan B; now he's a desperate politician with the power to do a great deal more harm. Even if all he does is rhetorical incitement, the damage to Sino-American relations is likely to be his main legacy.
The econonically illiterate and the strategically blind are calling the shots. Put a bunch of "Red Guards" in charge of any country, u d doom it for sure. Do that to America, u doom the world, econonically/culturally in the best case, existentially in the worst. On current trajectory, chicom will win, in the 'best' scenario, nuc war, in the worst. In all scenarios, a huge reversal of the devlopment made in the 2nd half of the 20th and the early part of the 21st century, to say the least.
1.Why do the Chinese accept a responsibility to answer andjup the ante on this nonsense by Mr Trump thereby giving him the publicity that he wants. Why not just cool it till after the election?
2.If Mr.Biden is chosen by the electorate what then?
More than a hundred thousand small businesses are reported to be out of business due to the CCP virus. Now would seem to be the time for a complete decoupling from China and open up opportunities for a growth in small businesses. I don't buy Tim Apple's excuse of the lack of a supply chain in the US. Look at how quickly GM put their logistic knowledge to work on building ventilators. It was phenomenal for a very complicated piece of machinery. AI and robotics are just now opening a new wave in manufacturing negating low wage areas. The large companies need to have the foresight to bring manufacturing back to the land of the rule of law and low energy costs. Xi overplayed his hand and now demographics and Trump will defeat his dreams.
I am resigned to a hard winter of economic discontent wherein the US and China commerce comes to a screeching halt. Perhaps only a big LOSE-LOSE outcome will convince the American people to kick them China hawks out of the White House.
The major economic impacts of a further serious decline in U.S.-China relations upon 1) some major American firms with business activities in China (e.g, Apple, GM), 2) a significant decline in agricultural revenues, along with 3) a corollary significant decline in the US stock market averages all would further endanger both presidential and senatorial election prospects. Prudence will likely guide further POTUS and congressional actions.
Trump on China: "You’d save $500 billion if you cut off the whole relationship"
TLDR; Your pessimism is warranted.
Though Trump is certainly given to theatrics, I would not accuse him of doing so with some rationale. Throughout the trade war his twitter theatrics and tirades, even if borne of genuine anger, were still likely rooted in a bargaining strategy. Thus, one could call them 'bluffs' that he never intended to pull the trigger on.
At this point with the dark cloud of the Coronavirus swirling over the trade deal, China is no position economically to meet its obligations nor is there any political will to do so. The Republican's unified blame China strategy only further deteriorate negotiation conditions. This makes me doubt that Trump's tirades have any bargaining logic, leaving only the possibility that they are genuine threats.
"Blow up the trade deal" was always a legitimate option in the eyes of some within the administration. As November draws nearer and the（administration's botched) pandemic response dominates the election, domestic political prerogatives almost necessitate that Republicans and Trump hedge their bets on a China scapegoat strategy. What better (should I say expedient) options do they have?
I often agree that you are prone to being overly pessimistic, but this time I think there is significant evidence from many corners of Washington that the train has left the station on US-Sino rapprochement in the short-term. The Coronavirus will be the nail in the coffin---It's too politically convenient to not be polemicized by anti-China hawks inside and outside the administration.
This is developing into a worst-case denouement of the presidency of Donald Trump.
The United States has never elected a politician so arbitrarily willful to a position of such power. Trump's down to his last few policy options, facing an election he has a good chance of losing. He realizes his only policy options are magical exhortations to restart the economy or, failing that, to excoriate China and hope he can inflame and distract American voters. So, heedless of the human costs of the pandemic he will try to reopen the economy and, again heedless of the possible human costs, he will inflame tensions with China.
Trump's always had the instincts of a gambler in business, with bankruptcy as his Plan B; now he's a desperate politician with the power to do a great deal more harm. Even if all he does is rhetorical incitement, the damage to Sino-American relations is likely to be his main legacy.
The econonically illiterate and the strategically blind are calling the shots. Put a bunch of "Red Guards" in charge of any country, u d doom it for sure. Do that to America, u doom the world, econonically/culturally in the best case, existentially in the worst. On current trajectory, chicom will win, in the 'best' scenario, nuc war, in the worst. In all scenarios, a huge reversal of the devlopment made in the 2nd half of the 20th and the early part of the 21st century, to say the least.
Two questions
1.Why do the Chinese accept a responsibility to answer andjup the ante on this nonsense by Mr Trump thereby giving him the publicity that he wants. Why not just cool it till after the election?
2.If Mr.Biden is chosen by the electorate what then?
More than a hundred thousand small businesses are reported to be out of business due to the CCP virus. Now would seem to be the time for a complete decoupling from China and open up opportunities for a growth in small businesses. I don't buy Tim Apple's excuse of the lack of a supply chain in the US. Look at how quickly GM put their logistic knowledge to work on building ventilators. It was phenomenal for a very complicated piece of machinery. AI and robotics are just now opening a new wave in manufacturing negating low wage areas. The large companies need to have the foresight to bring manufacturing back to the land of the rule of law and low energy costs. Xi overplayed his hand and now demographics and Trump will defeat his dreams.
I am resigned to a hard winter of economic discontent wherein the US and China commerce comes to a screeching halt. Perhaps only a big LOSE-LOSE outcome will convince the American people to kick them China hawks out of the White House.
The major economic impacts of a further serious decline in U.S.-China relations upon 1) some major American firms with business activities in China (e.g, Apple, GM), 2) a significant decline in agricultural revenues, along with 3) a corollary significant decline in the US stock market averages all would further endanger both presidential and senatorial election prospects. Prudence will likely guide further POTUS and congressional actions.