Ukraine; Hong Kong outbreak; Regulatory crackdown; Capital; Rural affairs

The Ukraine crisis is worsening and the PRC is trying to thread the needle of not criticizing Russia while also not angering the EU and the US, all while sticking to its long-stated principles about sovereignty and the UN.

The PRC government should perhaps be more worried about the EU reaction to China over the Ukraine crisis than the US reaction.

The US approach to the PRC’s rhetoric and actions as this crisis deepens is likely to be along the lines of “help Russia and things will get even worse in US-China relations, don’t support Russia and things will still be bad but not as bad as they could get”.

Meanwhile, there seems to still be hope among PRC policymakers that the EU will maintain strategic opportunity and pursue a different, less tough approach to the PRC than the US is taking. But a bloody war in Europe launched by Russia that the PRC refuses to condemn will likely harden views towards the PRC in many European capitals and give momentum to those politicians in places like G…