US-China trade deal; Hong Kong outbreak; New form of human civilization; Olympics

The data are in for the 2020 US-China trade deal and the PRC side did not hit the purchase targets. No one is surprised, it was a weak deal from day one.

The Biden Administration has few to no options to improve it, in part because after thrashing about for a couple of years this was the best the Trump team could get, and they punted the hard stuff into the mythical Phase Two that never happened.

We should expect talk about working with allies, a new 301 action that will take a year, more tariff exclusions that will keep lobbyists busy, and lots of rancor from Capitol Hill. I do not envy the people at USTR.

The PRC side will say they did the best they could under the circumstances and that the US is to blame for any shortfalls because it prevented the creation of an atmosphere conducive to fulfilling the purchase commitments. While the PRC side would be very happy to see the tariffs go away they have also adjusted, have so far prevented their biggest worry - decoupling - and used the tr…