US-China trade deal; Pompeo on China and tech; 1 RMB note tractor driver dies

I am ecstatic that we may finally be on the cusp of no longer having to speculate about whether there be a US-China trade deal, and what might be in it. Some of the details of the phase one deal to be signed Wednesday have started to leak, much I believe to the consternation of the Chinese side who would prefer to keep it secret.

One question I have is how much of the deals to be announced tomorrow are ones that have already been announced one or more times?

If there is a phase two deal expect it to be done in small chunks, like phase 2A, phase 2B etc, rather than one big agreement as the really difficult issues that go to the heart of the PRC economic system look so far to be mostly untouched in this phase one deal, and are likely untouchable in any future deal.

And as this newsletter has been saying ad nauseum, the trade deal is actually the easy part of the US-China relationship, and do not be surprised to see more US pushback in the technology realm before the ink is barely dry on …