The US and China appear to have stepped back from their latest brink.
Trump and Xi finally had their call, the Geneva ”truce” may be back on track and to listen to Trump the halt in exports of rare earth magnets may be ending.
Representatives from the two sides will meet again soon, and the US has added Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick to the team alongside Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
Commerce oversees export controls, so it is likely Lutnick is joining because US export controls that have so angered China are now on the table. The PRC side has been smart in building up their export control regime around rare earths, and especially rare earth magnets, and saying they are about national security not trade, just like the US positions its export controls. As Rush Doshi pointed out on X “Worth pointing out Trump, in his first term, offered to lift export controls on Huawei and ZTE at Xi’s request to get a trade deal.”
The PRC statement painted Xi as a responsible helmsman in the face of US “disturbances and disruptions 干扰甚至破坏”:
President Xi pointed out that recalibrating the direction of the giant ship of China-U.S. relations requires us to take the helm and set the right course. It is particularly important to steer clear of the various disturbances and disruptions. At the suggestion of the U.S. side, the two countries’ lead officials recently held an economic and trade meeting in Geneva. It marked an important step forward in resolving the relevant issues through dialogue and consultation, and was welcomed by both societies and the international community. It proved that dialogue and cooperation is the only right choice. The two sides need to make good use of the economic and trade consultation mechanism already in place, and seek win-win results in the spirit of equality and respect for each other’s concerns. The Chinese side is sincere about this, and at the same time has its principles. The Chinese always honor and deliver what has been promised. Both sides should make good on the agreement reached in Geneva. In fact, China has been seriously and earnestly executing the agreement. The U.S. side should acknowledge the progress already made, and remove the negative measures taken against China. The two sides should enhance communication in such fields as foreign affairs, economy and trade, military, and law enforcement to build consensus, clear up misunderstandings, and strengthen cooperation.
习近平指出,校正中美关系这艘大船的航向,需要我们把好舵、定好向,尤其是排除各种干扰甚至破坏,这尤为重要。根据美方提议,两国经贸牵头人在日内瓦举行会谈,迈出了通过对话协商解决经贸问题的重要一步,受到两国各界和国际社会普遍欢迎,也证明对话和合作是唯一正确的选择。双方要用好已经建立的经贸磋商机制,秉持平等态度,尊重各自关切,争取双赢结果。对此,中方是有诚意的,同时也是有原则的。中国人一向言必行、行必果,既然达成了共识,双方都应遵守。日内瓦会谈之后,中方严肃认真执行了协议。美方应实事求是看待取得的进展,撤销对中国实施的消极举措。双方应增进外交、经贸、军队、执法等各领域交流,增进共识、减少误解、加强合作。
According to the PRC readout, Xi has invited Trump to visit China, and according to Trump’s Truth Social “readout” of the call “President Xi graciously invited the First Lady and me to visit China, and I reciprocated.”. No dates were mentioned; it would be something if Trump decides to go to Beijing for the September 3rd parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Having state visits to work towards usually acts as a bit of a stabilizer in the relationship.
While Trump posted that “the conversation was focused almost entirely on TRADE”, Xi delivered a stern warning on Taiwan:
President Xi emphasized that the United States must handle the Taiwan question with prudence, so that the fringe separatists bent on “Taiwan independence” will not be able to drag China and America into the dangerous terrain of confrontation and even conflict.
习近平强调,美国应当慎重处理台湾问题,避免极少数“台独”分裂分子把中美两国拖入冲突对抗的危险境地。
Trump seems to have backtracked from last week’s statement about visas for PRC students:
President Trump said that he has great respect for President Xi, and the U.S.-China relationship is very important. The U.S. wants the Chinese economy to do very well. The U.S. and China working together can get a lot of great things done. The U.S. will honor the one-China policy. The meeting in Geneva was very successful, and produced a good deal. The U.S. will work with China to execute the deal. The U.S. loves to have Chinese students coming to study in America.
特朗普表示十分尊重习近平主席,美中关系十分重要。美方乐见中国经济保持强劲增长。美中合作可以做成很多好事。美方将继续奉行一个中国政策。两国日内瓦经贸会谈很成功,达成了好的协议。美方愿同中方共同努力落实协议。美方欢迎中国留学生来美学习。
He went further about Chinese students in comments in the Oval Office later Thursday, saying “Chinese students are coming. No problem. No problem. It’s our honor to have them.”
The details of what was conceded and what was agreed to are still hazy, but the Geneva “truce” does look to be back on track, and US automakers and other firms may not have to shut production imminently for lack of rare earth magnets. I assume the US will pull back on the recent curbs on ethane exports, and on other industrial commodities that have not been publicly announced. But if the shipments of rare earth magnets do not resume very soon then this truce will likely be short-lived.
The full readouts:
On the evening of June 5, President Xi Jinping took a phone call from U.S. President Donald J. Trump.
2025年6月5日晚,国家主席习近平应约同美国总统特朗普通电话。
President Xi pointed out that recalibrating the direction of the giant ship of China-U.S. relations requires us to take the helm and set the right course. It is particularly important to steer clear of the various disturbances and disruptions. At the suggestion of the U.S. side, the two countries’ lead officials recently held an economic and trade meeting in Geneva. It marked an important step forward in resolving the relevant issues through dialogue and consultation, and was welcomed by both societies and the international community. It proved that dialogue and cooperation is the only right choice. The two sides need to make good use of the economic and trade consultation mechanism already in place, and seek win-win results in the spirit of equality and respect for each other’s concerns. The Chinese side is sincere about this, and at the same time has its principles. The Chinese always honor and deliver what has been promised. Both sides should make good on the agreement reached in Geneva. In fact, China has been seriously and earnestly executing the agreement. The U.S. side should acknowledge the progress already made, and remove the negative measures taken against China. The two sides should enhance communication in such fields as foreign affairs, economy and trade, military, and law enforcement to build consensus, clear up misunderstandings, and strengthen cooperation.
习近平指出,校正中美关系这艘大船的航向,需要我们把好舵、定好向,尤其是排除各种干扰甚至破坏,这尤为重要。根据美方提议,两国经贸牵头人在日内瓦举行会谈,迈出了通过对话协商解决经贸问题的重要一步,受到两国各界和国际社会普遍欢迎,也证明对话和合作是唯一正确的选择。双方要用好已经建立的经贸磋商机制,秉持平等态度,尊重各自关切,争取双赢结果。对此,中方是有诚意的,同时也是有原则的。中国人一向言必行、行必果,既然达成了共识,双方都应遵守。日内瓦会谈之后,中方严肃认真执行了协议。美方应实事求是看待取得的进展,撤销对中国实施的消极举措。双方应增进外交、经贸、军队、执法等各领域交流,增进共识、减少误解、加强合作。
President Xi emphasized that the United States must handle the Taiwan question with prudence, so that the fringe separatists bent on “Taiwan independence” will not be able to drag China and America into the dangerous terrain of confrontation and even conflict.
习近平强调,美国应当慎重处理台湾问题,避免极少数“台独”分裂分子把中美两国拖入冲突对抗的危险境地。
President Trump said that he has great respect for President Xi, and the U.S.-China relationship is very important. The U.S. wants the Chinese economy to do very well. The U.S. and China working together can get a lot of great things done. The U.S. will honor the one-China policy. The meeting in Geneva was very successful, and produced a good deal. The U.S. will work with China to execute the deal. The U.S. loves to have Chinese students coming to study in America.
特朗普表示十分尊重习近平主席,美中关系十分重要。美方乐见中国经济保持强劲增长。美中合作可以做成很多好事。美方将继续奉行一个中国政策。两国日内瓦经贸会谈很成功,达成了好的协议。美方愿同中方共同努力落实协议。美方欢迎中国留学生来美学习。
President Xi welcomed President Trump to visit China again, for which President Trump expressed heartfelt appreciation. The two Presidents agreed that their teams should continue implementing the Geneva agreement and hold another round of meeting as soon as possible.
习近平欢迎特朗普再次访华,特朗普表示诚挚感谢。两国元首同意双方团队继续落实好日内瓦共识,尽快举行新一轮会谈。
President Trump on Truth Social:
I just concluded a very good phone call with President Xi, of China, discussing some of the intricacies of our recently made, and agreed to, Trade Deal. The call lasted approximately one and a half hours, and resulted in a very positive conclusion for both Countries. There should no longer be any questions respecting the complexity of Rare Earth products. Our respective teams will be meeting shortly at a location to be determined. We will be represented by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and United States Trade Representative, Ambassador Jamieson Greer. During the conversation, President Xi graciously invited the First Lady and me to visit China, and I reciprocated. As Presidents of two Great Nations, this is something that we both look forward to doing. The conversation was focused almost entirely on TRADE. Nothing was discussed concerning Russia/Ukraine, or Iran. We will inform the Media as to scheduling and location of the soon to be meeting. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
Chinese for “Taco” is 塔可 tǎkě, in case you were wondering…
Mark your calendar. On Monday, June 9, at 12PM ET, I will host a Sinocism Live discussion with Tu Le, Founder and Managing Director of Sino Auto Insights, on China EVs and the state of the market. We last spoke in May 2023 about the rise of the China EV industry.
Thanks for reading.