Xi in Macau; Debt; Surveillance; Tech and financial "wars"; Political football
There is still a lot more speculation than details about the phase one US-China trade deal. As I wrote Monday, I think the Chinese did concede more than the US because Xi wants to try to put a floor, however temporary and narrow it may be, under the rapidly descending trajectory of US-China relations.
However, I do not believe the deal will do much if anything to stop the US-China “technology war”, nor will it slow China’s efforts to decouple from its dependence on the US for certain core technologies, as discussed in item 5 below.
It will also not reduce the growing concerns in China that the US’ ultimate trump card may be the US-dominated global financial system, and that the US will not hesitate to play it to hurt China, as discussed in item 6 below.
Other things on my radar:
Xi Jinping has arrived in Macau for the 20th anniversary celebrations;
The debt mess is not getting better, with a warning from Ma Jun, an external adviser to the People’s Bank of China monetary policy committe…