The rumors about Xi being in trouble continue. I understand why people want to believe them. Many inside the CPC system and inside the PRC, as well as around the world, are very worried about the prospect of Xi remaining in power at the 20th Party Congress and beyond, and among other likely benefits his “retirement” in a few months would probably be one of the greatest boosts for the PRC and Hong Kong stock markets ever.
But hope is different than evidence, and so far, in spite of the intensifying rumors and stories in overseas media, I am still not seeing any reason to believe that Xi’ s hold on power is under any real threat.
As I wrote on this subject in the May 11 newsletter:
There are increasing numbers of rumors and overseas stories about pushback against Xi. There is little question many are very unhappy with him, and that his policies are very problematic, but are the people talking to foreign media reflecting a real split that has political potential or are they just grumbling…