No mention of November Politburo meeting; US updates chip controls; Xi on the BRI; Lai in Hawaii; Miao Hua; US-China prisoner swap
Summary of today’s Essential Eight:
1. No announcement of a November Politburo meeting - There was no public announcement of a November Politburo meeting or study session. Usually in November there would be the monthly Politburo meeting near the end of the month and then another in the first week of December to discuss economic work for 2025, just before the annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC). Is the absence, or at least absence of publicizing of a November Politburo meeting, a sign that the rumors may be correct that the CEWC may convene a few days earlier than usual?
2. More signs economy is stabilizing - The Caixin October PMI was better than expected and October saw another increase in home sales. Anecdotally the housing markets in Shanghai and Beijing are coming back to life, but at prices around 2015/6 levels. How might the glimmers of stabilization affect the rumors of more “consumption stimulus” to come from the upcoming CEWC?