2024 Central Economic Work Conference Readout

The Central Economic Work Conference has concluded. I have done an unofficial translation of the full readout, they should issue a official full English translation in the next day or so.

Today’s newsletter is my translation and some discussion of what I think are key points.

I do not think there are many surprises from what the leadership has already been saying publicly, most recently Monday at the December Politburo meeting.

The readout reiterated the shift to a “more proactive fiscal policy” and “moderately loose monetary policy” in these two paragraphs:

A more proactive fiscal policy should be implemented. The fiscal deficit ratio should be increased to ensure fiscal policy maintains and strengthens its effectiveness. Fiscal spending should be increased, with strengthened support for key areas. The issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds should be increased to continue supporting "two major" projects and "two new" policy implementation. Local government special bond issuance and usage should be increased, expanding their scope of investment and use as project capital. The fiscal spending structure should be optimized, improving fund utilization efficiency, with greater focus on benefiting people's livelihood, promoting consumption, and enhancing sustainability, while ensuring the "three guarantees" baseline at the grassroots level. Party and government organs must maintain strict budget discipline.

要实施更加积极的财政政策。提高财政赤字率，确保财政政策持续用力、更加给力。加大财政支出强度，加强重点领域保障。增加发行超长期特别国债，持续支持“两重”项目和“两新”政策实施。增加地方政府专项债券发行使用，扩大投向领域和用作项目资本金范围。优化财政支出结构，提高资金使用效益，更加注重惠民生、促消费、增后劲，兜牢基层“三保”底线。党政机关要坚持过紧日子。

A moderately loose monetary policy should be implemented. The dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of quantity and structure should be utilized effectively, with timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, maintaining ample liquidity, ensuring that social financing scale and money supply growth match economic growth and expected price level targets. The RMB exchange rate should be maintained at a reasonable and balanced level of basic stability. [Bill: This is the same language as was in the 2023 CEWC readout] The central bank's macro-prudential and financial stability functions should be explored and expanded, financial tools innovated, and financial market stability maintained. [Bill: So more quantitative easing even if they do not admit they are doing quantitative easing?]

要实施适度宽松的货币政策。发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构双重功能，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。探索拓展中央银行宏观审慎与金融稳定功能，创新金融工具，维护金融市场稳定。

The meeting listed 9 key tasks for 2025:

• First is vigorously boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency to expand domestic demand comprehensively 一是大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求; [Bill: “focus on expanding domestic demand” was the second key task in the 2023 readout].

• Second is leading the development of new productive forces through technological innovation and building a modern industrial system 二是以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，建设现代化产业体系;

• Third is leveraging the role of economic system reform and promoting the implementation of landmark reform measures 三是发挥经济体制改革牵引作用，推动标志性改革举措落地见效;

• Fourth is expanding high-level opening up, stabilizing foreign trade and investment 四是扩大高水平对外开放，稳外贸、稳外资;

• Fifth is effectively preventing and resolving risks in key areas, firmly maintaining the bottom line of preventing systemic risks 五是有效防范化解重点领域风险，牢牢守住不发生系统性风险底线;

• Sixth is coordinating the promotion of new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization, promoting integrated urban-rural development 六是统筹推进新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴，促进城乡融合发展;

• Seventh is strengthening the implementation of regional strategies and enhancing regional development vitality 七是加大区域战略实施力度，增强区域发展活力;

• Eighth is coordinating carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion and growth, accelerating comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development 八是协同推进降碳减污扩绿增长，加紧经济社会发展全面绿色转型;

• Ninth is increasing efforts to ensure and improve people's livelihood, enhancing people's sense of gain, happiness, and security 九是加大保障和改善民生力度，增强人民群众获得感幸福感安全感.

The 2023 meeting readout also listed 9 key tasks for 2024:

• First, lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation 一是以科技创新引领现代化产业体系建设;

• Second, focus on expanding domestic demand 二是着力扩大国内需求;

• Third, deepen reforms in key areas 三是深化重点领域改革;

• Fourth, expand high-level opening up to the outside world 四是扩大高水平对外开放;

• Fifth, continuously and effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas 五是持续有效防范化解重点领域风险;

• Sixth, persistently and diligently work on agriculture, rural areas, and farmers ('three rural issues') 六是坚持不懈抓好“三农”工作;

• Seventh, promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas and regional coordination 七是推动城乡融合、区域协调发展;

• Eighth, deeply promote the construction of ecological civilization and green, low-carbon development 八是深入推进生态文明建设和绿色低碳发展;

• Ninth, effectively guarantee and improve people's livelihoods 九是切实保障和改善民生.

This paragraph near the end is new from 2023 and clearly indicates deepening concerns about social stability:

The meeting required doing good work in ensuring people's livelihood and maintaining safety and stability during the year-end and new year period, thoroughly investigating and resolving various conflicts, disputes, and potential risks to ensure overall social stability.

会议要求，要做好岁末年初民生保障和安全稳定各项工作，深入排查化解各类矛盾纠纷和风险隐患，确保社会大局稳定。

The ninth key task includes this sentence: “Uphold and develop the new era ‘Fengqiao Experience’, strengthen public safety system governance. 坚持和发展新时代“枫桥经验”，加强公共安全系统施治。”. There was no mention of the Fengqiao Experience in the 2023 readout, which should also be seen as an indication of the concerns about social stability.

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The CCTV Evening News report was the anchor reading the readout over scenes from the meeting:

My translation of the readout from Xinhua - 中央经济工作会议在北京举行 习近平发表重要讲话 Central Economic Work Conference Held in Beijing, Xi Jinping Delivers Important Speech: