Australia-China relations were already worsening into the weekend as China announced punishing tariffs on Australian wine, the latest in a series of economic penalties Beijing has imposed over the last few weeks.
It's all part of Xi Dada's "Make China Great Again" campaign, which the Trump administration has abetted with its America First twitter diplomacy, and very public going alone diplomacy.
Australia is simply the chicken which is getting very publicly killed in order to scare all the other monkeys into line. The message is simple: "Where we can, we will hurt Australian exports to China, hurting many Australian businesses. If you take a strong and public line against China's interests, you will be next!"
After Australia, my guess is the next in line will be the UK. Boris Johnson's Britain has been hit badly by Brexit uncertainty, with the worst yet to come. At the same time, it has moved to ban the installation of Huawei networking equipment in 2021. BoJo is already unpopular, making Britain very susceptible to Chinese economic pressure.
If Australia and Britain are hit badly economically, their commitment to Five Eyes will be shaken, with the US, Canada and New Zealand being the remaining members.
Long story short, Xi is picking Five Eyes apart, blinding one eye at a time in order to diminish US power projection capabilities in the western Pacific without resorting to a hot war.
When Xi talks about this rare once-in-a-century opportunity for China, you also need to factor in how internally divided US society is, with more than 60M US voters voting for Trump in 2020, and Trump continuing to contest the results. Some of Trump's supporters will go hardcore and may even become violent during the Biden administration. Biden has tried to talk about bringing Americans together, but with McConnell still as Senate majority leader and the Republican Party still open to Trump and QAnon influence, US society is likely to remain seriously divided over the next four years. This internal division in the US will mean that foreign leaders will take a wait-and-see attitude to openly allying with the US against China because the US might flip to isolationism again in 2024. This is what Biden means when he says the US is lacking leverage in dealing with China. Biden is well aware of this particular situation because he knows how important leverage is in dealing with Xi. Behind Xi's smile, the knives are out.
China will not openly confront the US in a hot war because it doesn't need to. Instead, China's Xi is like an assertive vulture, circling in the sky, waiting for its largest victim to weaken and then, maybe die. Sun Zi, the great strategic thinker, said that war should be the last option; and the best option is not to fight. Xi's strategy is to make it known that China is the power which steps into the vacuum the US leaves behind.
The image of the rugged individualist which Americans have loved so much will become the single largest impediment to any US administration trying to forge an alliance against China. This means that if the US is to confront China, the society has to be much more united than it currently is. Historically, US society has only been able to set aside differences of this scale only when it has come under attack, as with Pearl Harbor and 9/11.
For Xi, this means that China should push hard to advance his interests, but avoid a hot war with the US. Why should China poke the US when all it has to do is wait, and let its single greatest competitor destroy itself? After all, Chinese have always been good at patience and waiting to strike at the right moment.
Moreover, Xi doesn't have to deal with any term limits. With his total control of the Party now, he can push hard, but he can also wait. The US no longer has the luxury of time, because time is not on the US's side.
Hi Bill. Thank you as always for the newsletter. I subscribed several months ago - just in time for a complete breakdown in Aus-China relations.
I had a question. How influential/widely read are The Global Times and Xinhua? Are these the main source of news for the Chinese populace or is it understood that these reflect the view of the Party? Are there other official news sources that are less Nationalistic?
Wondering why people call the tasteless cartoon shared by Zhao Lijian a ‘fake image’ when it is obviously a … cartoon. Vicky Xu had the right line on Twitter: the Australian reaction was a bit over the top and only fed the troll, especially considering other much more actions—Beijing is trying to coerce Canberra into political compliance right now! There are Australian children in the camps in Xinjiang! That should be the focus.
Regarding, “Xi on using archaeology in the “struggles 斗争 in the field of history and culture”, it’s a bit reminiscent of Germany’s interest during the Hitler years in archaeological studies to “discover” the extent of Arian presence in Europe “since ancient times.” The intermingling of science and nationalism (with the goal to burnish the glorious significance of a given race or culture) is a hallmark of fascism.
I think I sympathize with China more than most people here in the States, but that Zhao Lijian tweet...oy vey. I guess this is what they mean when they say that "international politics are always an extension of domestic politics" and "a leader who does not consider their short-run won't have a long-run to worry about"...What an unfortunate turn. And my parents are very supportive of China's more aggressive foreign policy rhetoric. Seems like all this "wolf warrior" diplomacy is having the intended effect on the domestic audience at least. I'm very concerned about the rapid escalation of both language and policy, and there's not really a limit as to how low the blows can go. Bridges are getting burned left and right. Hopefully the incentives of the Chinese foreign ministry will be aligned with more, well, diplomatic behavior within the near future. I'd hate to think about the consequences otherwise, for everyone.
sadly, reading that yang jiechi piece in today's people's daily it does not sound like the incentives of the Chinese foreign ministry will be aligned with more diplomatic behavior within the near future
I do to Bill, but let’s see if the CCP language shifts from us Ozzie’s being a small country of no consequence to being “evil”, justifying any CCP “harsh” actions.
Dear Bill, I suspect Zhao’s tweet is a part of another agenda. The CCP is failing with its economic pressure campaign against Australia. China may be attempting to paint the Australian Army as “evil” allowing them in the not so distant future to conduct an “incident” like with India where Australian forces suffer casualties. In an attempt to move the confrontation in their favour.
It's all part of Xi Dada's "Make China Great Again" campaign, which the Trump administration has abetted with its America First twitter diplomacy, and very public going alone diplomacy.
Australia is simply the chicken which is getting very publicly killed in order to scare all the other monkeys into line. The message is simple: "Where we can, we will hurt Australian exports to China, hurting many Australian businesses. If you take a strong and public line against China's interests, you will be next!"
After Australia, my guess is the next in line will be the UK. Boris Johnson's Britain has been hit badly by Brexit uncertainty, with the worst yet to come. At the same time, it has moved to ban the installation of Huawei networking equipment in 2021. BoJo is already unpopular, making Britain very susceptible to Chinese economic pressure.
If Australia and Britain are hit badly economically, their commitment to Five Eyes will be shaken, with the US, Canada and New Zealand being the remaining members.
Long story short, Xi is picking Five Eyes apart, blinding one eye at a time in order to diminish US power projection capabilities in the western Pacific without resorting to a hot war.
When Xi talks about this rare once-in-a-century opportunity for China, you also need to factor in how internally divided US society is, with more than 60M US voters voting for Trump in 2020, and Trump continuing to contest the results. Some of Trump's supporters will go hardcore and may even become violent during the Biden administration. Biden has tried to talk about bringing Americans together, but with McConnell still as Senate majority leader and the Republican Party still open to Trump and QAnon influence, US society is likely to remain seriously divided over the next four years. This internal division in the US will mean that foreign leaders will take a wait-and-see attitude to openly allying with the US against China because the US might flip to isolationism again in 2024. This is what Biden means when he says the US is lacking leverage in dealing with China. Biden is well aware of this particular situation because he knows how important leverage is in dealing with Xi. Behind Xi's smile, the knives are out.
China will not openly confront the US in a hot war because it doesn't need to. Instead, China's Xi is like an assertive vulture, circling in the sky, waiting for its largest victim to weaken and then, maybe die. Sun Zi, the great strategic thinker, said that war should be the last option; and the best option is not to fight. Xi's strategy is to make it known that China is the power which steps into the vacuum the US leaves behind.
The image of the rugged individualist which Americans have loved so much will become the single largest impediment to any US administration trying to forge an alliance against China. This means that if the US is to confront China, the society has to be much more united than it currently is. Historically, US society has only been able to set aside differences of this scale only when it has come under attack, as with Pearl Harbor and 9/11.
For Xi, this means that China should push hard to advance his interests, but avoid a hot war with the US. Why should China poke the US when all it has to do is wait, and let its single greatest competitor destroy itself? After all, Chinese have always been good at patience and waiting to strike at the right moment.
Moreover, Xi doesn't have to deal with any term limits. With his total control of the Party now, he can push hard, but he can also wait. The US no longer has the luxury of time, because time is not on the US's side.
Hi Bill. Thank you as always for the newsletter. I subscribed several months ago - just in time for a complete breakdown in Aus-China relations.
I had a question. How influential/widely read are The Global Times and Xinhua? Are these the main source of news for the Chinese populace or is it understood that these reflect the view of the Party? Are there other official news sources that are less Nationalistic?
Wondering why people call the tasteless cartoon shared by Zhao Lijian a ‘fake image’ when it is obviously a … cartoon. Vicky Xu had the right line on Twitter: the Australian reaction was a bit over the top and only fed the troll, especially considering other much more actions—Beijing is trying to coerce Canberra into political compliance right now! There are Australian children in the camps in Xinjiang! That should be the focus.
Regarding, “Xi on using archaeology in the “struggles 斗争 in the field of history and culture”, it’s a bit reminiscent of Germany’s interest during the Hitler years in archaeological studies to “discover” the extent of Arian presence in Europe “since ancient times.” The intermingling of science and nationalism (with the goal to burnish the glorious significance of a given race or culture) is a hallmark of fascism.
I think I sympathize with China more than most people here in the States, but that Zhao Lijian tweet...oy vey. I guess this is what they mean when they say that "international politics are always an extension of domestic politics" and "a leader who does not consider their short-run won't have a long-run to worry about"...What an unfortunate turn. And my parents are very supportive of China's more aggressive foreign policy rhetoric. Seems like all this "wolf warrior" diplomacy is having the intended effect on the domestic audience at least. I'm very concerned about the rapid escalation of both language and policy, and there's not really a limit as to how low the blows can go. Bridges are getting burned left and right. Hopefully the incentives of the Chinese foreign ministry will be aligned with more, well, diplomatic behavior within the near future. I'd hate to think about the consequences otherwise, for everyone.
sadly, reading that yang jiechi piece in today's people's daily it does not sound like the incentives of the Chinese foreign ministry will be aligned with more diplomatic behavior within the near future
I do to Bill, but let’s see if the CCP language shifts from us Ozzie’s being a small country of no consequence to being “evil”, justifying any CCP “harsh” actions.
Dear Bill, I suspect Zhao’s tweet is a part of another agenda. The CCP is failing with its economic pressure campaign against Australia. China may be attempting to paint the Australian Army as “evil” allowing them in the not so distant future to conduct an “incident” like with India where Australian forces suffer casualties. In an attempt to move the confrontation in their favour.
i hope you are wrong