Bill, the problem for you is that you still view China through American glasses and believe what the US is demanding from the PRC is right and reasonable. You think that China is anxious for a trade deal with the US whereas from what I see over the last two years that apart from appearances China has little or no reason to change from the way it has been doing things. When you get past Larry Kudlow's official administration stance he really perceives correctly that Xi doesn't want a deal.
The more I see of Xi's official addresses before CCP plenums and committees is that he is a total hardliner on giving the US anything. I also believe Vice Premier Lui He is also a hardliner.
I think they have determined that there is little to lose by allowing US tariffs to go to 25% after March 1, because they think Trump will be gone by January 20, 2021. Even if that perception is wrong and Trump goes to 2025, China's priorities for it domestic market and the goals for MiC2025 are already underway. The advantage for China is the market potential of 1.4 billion which US manufacturers want more than moving their production facilities from the PRC to the rust belt to please an administration whose shelf life is term limited at best.
The big problem coming from bashing China over Huawei's 5G network denial from the Five Eyes countries and Pompeo's current effort to shut out Huawei in Europe is that the China will exclude foreign manufacturers of 5G equipment from competing in the PRC. So if Huawei is tit=for-tat, then China's tat is a wallop.
China plays this trade game over 5-10-year period.
By the way, thanks for alert about Marco Rubio's wishful thinking that in order to compete with China there is a need for Congress to set up a set up an entity for national priorities to combat MiC2025. He's quite right but getting congress to agree to it is like herding cats in my view and the odds of success are agin him. As the PRC's Made in China 2025 has been policy up for several years and is well on the way to meet those goals — not without problems — catchup will be hard. Damn hard.
Bill, the problem for you is that you still view China through American glasses and believe what the US is demanding from the PRC is right and reasonable. You think that China is anxious for a trade deal with the US whereas from what I see over the last two years that apart from appearances China has little or no reason to change from the way it has been doing things. When you get past Larry Kudlow's official administration stance he really perceives correctly that Xi doesn't want a deal.
The more I see of Xi's official addresses before CCP plenums and committees is that he is a total hardliner on giving the US anything. I also believe Vice Premier Lui He is also a hardliner.
I think they have determined that there is little to lose by allowing US tariffs to go to 25% after March 1, because they think Trump will be gone by January 20, 2021. Even if that perception is wrong and Trump goes to 2025, China's priorities for it domestic market and the goals for MiC2025 are already underway. The advantage for China is the market potential of 1.4 billion which US manufacturers want more than moving their production facilities from the PRC to the rust belt to please an administration whose shelf life is term limited at best.
The big problem coming from bashing China over Huawei's 5G network denial from the Five Eyes countries and Pompeo's current effort to shut out Huawei in Europe is that the China will exclude foreign manufacturers of 5G equipment from competing in the PRC. So if Huawei is tit=for-tat, then China's tat is a wallop.
China plays this trade game over 5-10-year period.
By the way, thanks for alert about Marco Rubio's wishful thinking that in order to compete with China there is a need for Congress to set up a set up an entity for national priorities to combat MiC2025. He's quite right but getting congress to agree to it is like herding cats in my view and the odds of success are agin him. As the PRC's Made in China 2025 has been policy up for several years and is well on the way to meet those goals — not without problems — catchup will be hard. Damn hard.
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