India and China have had the bloodiest border clash in decades, with the Indian government confirming 20 of its soldiers have died. There is no confirmation from the Chinese side of any PLA casualties. The raucous Indian press has lots of stories on the tragedy, though it is hard to figure out how accurate they are. There seems to be consensus that no shots were fired, and instead they just beat each other with fists, stones and rods. One version I have heard is that two groups of soldiers met on a steep slope and during the clashes many fell down into a deep ravine, leading to dozens of casualties on both sides. I hope it is wrong.
The academic work on nationalist protests in China indicates that we should not expect a massive emotional outpouring from the people against India. Obviously, dead PLA soldiers will be very bad and we should worry about the reaction, but it probably won’t be a massive popular movement. The research shows that conflicts which triggered a very emotional response were incidents with the US and Japan, where there is a historical memory of ‘national humiliation’, feelings of inferiority, need to be superior, and fear of China’s rightful rejuvenation being kept down. There is no such historical baggage with India and I would say that in general Chinese look down on India, so this incident does not trigger the general public’s insecurities. I do not pretend to be able to say anything meaningful about a potential PLA response, however.
Mass casualties in China-India border fight; Beijing outbreak; Enemies of the people in HK; China-Africa summit on solidarity against COVID-19
The academic work on nationalist protests in China indicates that we should not expect a massive emotional outpouring from the people against India. Obviously, dead PLA soldiers will be very bad and we should worry about the reaction, but it probably won’t be a massive popular movement. The research shows that conflicts which triggered a very emotional response were incidents with the US and Japan, where there is a historical memory of ‘national humiliation’, feelings of inferiority, need to be superior, and fear of China’s rightful rejuvenation being kept down. There is no such historical baggage with India and I would say that in general Chinese look down on India, so this incident does not trigger the general public’s insecurities. I do not pretend to be able to say anything meaningful about a potential PLA response, however.