Bill, re your Venezuela comment. U dont usually do this, but i think this time u r committing the same mistake as the average china watchers, like a Baby with a hammer they See nail everywhere. It took a Long Long time and an awful Lot of suffering for venezuelans to get to this stage. Given the differences in conditions, top to bottom and back, bwtween Chicom's China and Chavista's Venezuela, there is no comparison and no risk of contagion. If anything the returning Chinese would surely appreciate their own version of socialist paradise even more? I bet Chicom would when needed say they dont interfere in internal affairs and Look forward to working with the new government. And there IS sufficient economic reasons for both to continue to work through the mess however resentful each really feels about the other.
While we are at it, re the recent risk speech and meetings. It seems to me to be open and candid and correct. Forget Chicom and Xi. See them as A and B. I d say A and B know what they are doing, Instead of what everyone seems to suggest recently (say for 2 months or so). Panick and Imminent collapse? again? Honestly i think sitting where we are watching, we are far more prone to media hype/selective data induced, rush of the blood to the head, type of mistakes than Chicom's watchers of the West. Their advantage.
Seems to me they are well prepared for this current tough spot. Imagine Chicom wihtout the tightening grips, the anti corruption campaigns, the "clean up'' of Media/internet, the attempt AT accelerated economic/environmwnal transition, the army reforms since 2012 but facing the same external pressure now, i.e the extrapolation of 2012 pre-Xi Chicom/China facing the Same Set of challenges abroad as of now, would u say Chicom would be better off or worse off in that scenario? I d say far worse off. So to conclude, i d say Xi knows what he s doing and Chicom in selecting him Way back then knew what it was doing (it knew it was losing grib and the common touch)...Based on his actions since 2012.
I think the starting point has to be that one's opponent is a competent rational foe. The cold war was won based on that. Not by a combination of pop-moralising and advanced condescention. Am ranting btw, not accusing you of any of that. Thanks.
Bill, re your Venezuela comment. U dont usually do this, but i think this time u r committing the same mistake as the average china watchers, like a Baby with a hammer they See nail everywhere. It took a Long Long time and an awful Lot of suffering for venezuelans to get to this stage. Given the differences in conditions, top to bottom and back, bwtween Chicom's China and Chavista's Venezuela, there is no comparison and no risk of contagion. If anything the returning Chinese would surely appreciate their own version of socialist paradise even more? I bet Chicom would when needed say they dont interfere in internal affairs and Look forward to working with the new government. And there IS sufficient economic reasons for both to continue to work through the mess however resentful each really feels about the other.
While we are at it, re the recent risk speech and meetings. It seems to me to be open and candid and correct. Forget Chicom and Xi. See them as A and B. I d say A and B know what they are doing, Instead of what everyone seems to suggest recently (say for 2 months or so). Panick and Imminent collapse? again? Honestly i think sitting where we are watching, we are far more prone to media hype/selective data induced, rush of the blood to the head, type of mistakes than Chicom's watchers of the West. Their advantage.
Seems to me they are well prepared for this current tough spot. Imagine Chicom wihtout the tightening grips, the anti corruption campaigns, the "clean up'' of Media/internet, the attempt AT accelerated economic/environmwnal transition, the army reforms since 2012 but facing the same external pressure now, i.e the extrapolation of 2012 pre-Xi Chicom/China facing the Same Set of challenges abroad as of now, would u say Chicom would be better off or worse off in that scenario? I d say far worse off. So to conclude, i d say Xi knows what he s doing and Chicom in selecting him Way back then knew what it was doing (it knew it was losing grib and the common touch)...Based on his actions since 2012.
I think the starting point has to be that one's opponent is a competent rational foe. The cold war was won based on that. Not by a combination of pop-moralising and advanced condescention. Am ranting btw, not accusing you of any of that. Thanks.