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Arran's avatar

A question re Ambassador Liu Xiaoming's retirement: was this planned/done for standard age-related reasons, or because of his twitter incident, abysmal interview performances and litany of similar gaffes in 2020? Assuming the former, but you never know...

Chris Devonshire-Ellis's avatar

Wow well there's a lot there. In terms of Wang's speech and what it means for business investments into China, he stressed the BRI and the Dual Circulation Strategy as key parts of China's 2021 Foreign Policy. We covered that in more detail viz-a-viz the China investors angle here: https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2020/12/31/china-to-continue-multilateral-trade-development-policy-along-the-belt-and-road-initiative-in-2021-more-eu-nations-to-sign-bri-mou/. Concerning the Belt & Road slowdown, well it goes without saying really, China has spent US$4 trillion over 7 years and now projects are coming to completion. So what is China's ODI policy now? See here: https://www.china-briefing.com/news/a-new-china-for-2021-foreign-investor-friendly-access-overseas-direct-investment-in-hi-tech-projects-and-ma-and-more-belt-road-initiative-opportunities/ In fact, China invested more in Latin American M&A last year than in the US and EU combined: https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2020/12/30/chinese-companies-hunting-in-latin-america-for-belt-and-road-ma/. Our view from the ground up is that there isn't so much of a slowdown, more a change in direction. The BRI, Dual Circulation Strategy, changes last year to the Foreign Investment Law and the relaxing of the Negative List all make China more open than ever before, and especially for companies involved in selling to China. It is moved from a manufacturing to a consumer base economy, and it is key to understand China now in this context.

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