A question re Ambassador Liu Xiaoming's retirement: was this planned/done for standard age-related reasons, or because of his twitter incident, abysmal interview performances and litany of similar gaffes in 2020? Assuming the former, but you never know...
a great question, not sure. he is 65 so age could be the reason, but Cui Tiankai is 68 and still in DC. I think Cui is an exception because of the complexity of the US-China relationship and the risk of changing envoys in the middle of the Trump administration. I will bet Cui gets replaced soon after Biden takes over
Thanks for the interesting and informative post. Strongly agree that pundits and articles assessing the BIT through the lens of future cooperation with the US contain uncomfortable parallels with "America First". Lest we forget, Trump has not even left yet. Event before Jan 20, some Americans are all to ready to pretend both that he was a fluke and that his presidency says nothing about our country.
In point 5, the negotiations originally stalled because of what was termed "promise fatigue“ by certain EU parties. Do you think that argument was eventually minimized because the deal was just too good to pass up? And do you think there is genuine belief in Germany and France that things will be different with new promises on labor standards, SOE subsidy disclosures, and consulting Europen partners regarding policy/subsidy changes?
A question re Ambassador Liu Xiaoming's retirement: was this planned/done for standard age-related reasons, or because of his twitter incident, abysmal interview performances and litany of similar gaffes in 2020? Assuming the former, but you never know...
a great question, not sure. he is 65 so age could be the reason, but Cui Tiankai is 68 and still in DC. I think Cui is an exception because of the complexity of the US-China relationship and the risk of changing envoys in the middle of the Trump administration. I will bet Cui gets replaced soon after Biden takes over
Wow well there's a lot there. In terms of Wang's speech and what it means for business investments into China, he stressed the BRI and the Dual Circulation Strategy as key parts of China's 2021 Foreign Policy. We covered that in more detail viz-a-viz the China investors angle here: https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2020/12/31/china-to-continue-multilateral-trade-development-policy-along-the-belt-and-road-initiative-in-2021-more-eu-nations-to-sign-bri-mou/. Concerning the Belt & Road slowdown, well it goes without saying really, China has spent US$4 trillion over 7 years and now projects are coming to completion. So what is China's ODI policy now? See here: https://www.china-briefing.com/news/a-new-china-for-2021-foreign-investor-friendly-access-overseas-direct-investment-in-hi-tech-projects-and-ma-and-more-belt-road-initiative-opportunities/ In fact, China invested more in Latin American M&A last year than in the US and EU combined: https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2020/12/30/chinese-companies-hunting-in-latin-america-for-belt-and-road-ma/. Our view from the ground up is that there isn't so much of a slowdown, more a change in direction. The BRI, Dual Circulation Strategy, changes last year to the Foreign Investment Law and the relaxing of the Negative List all make China more open than ever before, and especially for companies involved in selling to China. It is moved from a manufacturing to a consumer base economy, and it is key to understand China now in this context.
Thanks for the interesting and informative post. Strongly agree that pundits and articles assessing the BIT through the lens of future cooperation with the US contain uncomfortable parallels with "America First". Lest we forget, Trump has not even left yet. Event before Jan 20, some Americans are all to ready to pretend both that he was a fluke and that his presidency says nothing about our country.
In point 5, the negotiations originally stalled because of what was termed "promise fatigue“ by certain EU parties. Do you think that argument was eventually minimized because the deal was just too good to pass up? And do you think there is genuine belief in Germany and France that things will be different with new promises on labor standards, SOE subsidy disclosures, and consulting Europen partners regarding policy/subsidy changes?