Third Plenum communique; Disappointing or too early to tell?; Qin Gang may have a soft landing

The Third Plenum has concluded and the Central Committee issued a communique. Xi presided over the meeting and was shown looking fine, so either his doctors have a magic stroke cure or, as discussed yesterday, the rumors were total BS. I am going with the latter…

The meeting adopted the “Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform Comprehensively to Advance Chinese Modernization 中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定”.

The communique says that ““the reform tasks laid out in this resolution shall be completed by the time the People's Republic of China celebrates its 80th anniversary in 2029.” As expected the communique is light on implementation details. The full Resolution and Xi's explainer should give provide much more detail on what specific reforms and policies may be forthcoming.

The Central Committee is holding a press conference Friday at 10AM to discuss the “guiding principles” from the meeting but I would be surprised if the full Resolution and Xi’s explainer are released by then.

In 2013 expectations were very high for that Third Plenum, the communique came out and was disappointing, then a few days later the full resolution was released and people got excited that there was a lot more substance to the reform plans. I do not know if a similar dynamic will play out this time.

Those still hoping for any change of course will likely be disappointed. The Communique details the progress in comprehensively deepening reform since the 2013 Third Plenum and again makes it clear the leadership thinks they are on the correct path.

In what seemed surprising, the Communique said that “an analysis of the present situation and the tasks we face was conducted. It was highlighted that we must remain firmly committed to accomplishing the goals for this year's economic and social development.” So they are sticking with the 5% GDP target for 2024, and focus for any near-term policy adjustments should be on the Politburo meeting later this month, a meeting that usually reviews economic work of the first half of the year and tweaks policies for the rest of the year.

There is no mention of “Common Prosperity 共同富裕” in the communique but several of the reform tasks look to further that goal, so I expect we will see the term in the full Resolution.

There were several surprises around personnel issues. The communique stated that "it was also decided that Comrade Qin Gang's resignation should be accepted and he should be removed from his position on the Central Committee". That sounds like Qin, still a comrade, will get off with just disgrace and a demotion, and perhaps the rumor that he is getting a post as deputy head of a publishing house under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs may actually turn out to be true. There were no details about his case and whatever happened may never be made public.

We learned of two new PLA Rocket Forces officers who have problems. According to the communique “the CPC Central Military Commission's inspection report on grave violations of Party discipline and state laws involving Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, and Sun Jinming was deliberated and adopted”. Sun was chief of staff of the Rocket Force and his case had not been publicized. The communique also said that “empty seats on the Central Committee will be filled by alternate members Ding Xiangqun, Yu Lijun, and Yu Jihong”. Central Committee vacancies are filled in order of the alternate members with the most votes at the Party Congress, and those three were ranked 1, 3 and 4. Ding Xingnong, deputy political commissar of the Rocket Force, was number 2 but for unstated reasons was skipped over.

For today’s newsletter I am going highlight some of the key points from the communique. You can read it in full in English here or in Chinese here, along with video from the meeting.

We recorded this week’s episode of Sharp China earlier today. We talked a lot about the Third Plenum, so look for the episode in your inbox Friday.

A lot needs to happen in the next five and eleven years. It seems quite ambitious:

It was stated that the overall objectives of further deepening reform comprehensively are to continue improving and developing the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics and modernize China's system and capacity for governance. By 2035, we will have finished building a high-standard socialist market economy in all respects, further improved the system of socialism with Chinese characteristics, generally modernized our system and capacity for governance, and basically realized socialist modernization. All of this will lay a solid foundation for building China into a great modern socialist country in all respects by the middle of this century. To steadily advance reform, we will focus on building a high-standard socialist market economy, advancing whole-process people's democracy, developing a strong socialist culture in China, raising the people's quality of life, building a Beautiful China, advancing the Peaceful China Initiative to a higher level, and improving the Party's capacity for leadership and long-term governance. The reform tasks laid out in this resolution shall be completed by the time the People's Republic of China celebrates its 80th anniversary in 2029.

The section of the communique that lists the areas for reform begins with this paragraph:

At the session, the Central Committee made systematic plans for further deepening reform comprehensively with the emphasis on building a high-standard socialist market economy, promoting high-quality economic development, supporting all-around innovation, improving macroeconomic governance, promoting integrated urban-rural development, pursuing high-standard opening up, advancing whole-process people's democracy, promoting socialist rule of law with Chinese characteristics, deepening reform in the cultural sector, ensuring and improving the people's wellbeing, deepening reform in ecological conservation, modernizing China's national security system and capacity, deepening national defense and military reform, and improving the Party's leadership in further deepening reform comprehensively to advance Chinese modernization.

全会对进一步全面深化改革做出系统部署，强调构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制，健全推动经济高质量发展体制机制，构建支持全面创新体制机制，健全宏观经济治理体系，完善城乡融合发展体制机制，完善高水平对外开放体制机制，健全全过程人民民主制度体系，完善中国特色社会主义法治体系，深化文化体制机制改革，健全保障和改善民生制度体系，深化生态文明体制改革，推进国家安全体系和能力现代化，持续深化国防和军队改革，提高党对进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的领导水平。