Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Laurent M. Sinopole's avatar

I share much of your analysis Bill, as a Frenchman and a European, which is reassuring somehow to have a shared understanding on both sides of the Atlantic! Not about Sino-American mechanics - I'm too remote from DC - but about the level of confidence of the CCP's political elite in its ability to overcome any of Trump 2.0's new pitfalls, while expecting surprises that they will see as so many opportunities to exalt the transactional art of the new West Wing tenant.

The recent summits of the SCO in Pakistan and the BRICS+ in Kazan, Russia, further convince the CCP that they already have high ground and enough “market share” as ballast to keep their economy afloat, indeed.

I wonder about the future sacrificial victims of these upcoming trade and technology war games: will it be Europe first, and the 24-hour deal that the new Trump administration is about to unleash (if its yet-to-be-chosen team agrees to follow its architect)? Or Taiwan, which, while warmly welcoming his return, poorly conceals its permanent fear of being just a bargaining chip on this great chessboard whose rules Trump doesn't understand, but on which he plays as if he were playing on a golf green, stroke by stroke?

A European testimonial may shed some light on the situation: last February, at the Munich Security Conference, we witnessed a special China session, as China more than Europeans know how to arrange, even on European soil. It was a lively tit-for-tat duel between the unsinkable Fu Ying on the one hand, and Ben Cardin (D), Chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, on the other. Here's what he said (verbatim perfectible): “China poses a threat to peace in the region (...). Our position on Taiwan is intentionally ambiguous and complex, but what we refuse to see is a takeover of Taiwan by force. We will do everything in our power to prevent a takeover of Taiwan by force”. By force only?

Expand full comment
Utopio's avatar

It's starting to look a lot like Christmas for, variously, theocracies and autocracies around the world. It's amazing what deals become possible when we're all on the same page and one big happy, global, billionaire/trillionaire family.

Expand full comment
2 more comments...

No posts