Trump 2.0 and the PRC

Today’s newsletter is just my thoughts on what Trump’s decisive victory last night means for the US-China relationship. I will return to the regular format Thursday.

It is hard to predict what Trump 2.0 means for US-China relations but I expect we will likely see a more volatile and tense relationship, at least in the near term.

Not all the House of Representative results are in but it looks like the GOP will control the Presidency, the Senate and the House. That trifecta of control could increase US pressure on Beijing, as the chances rise that some or most of the “China Week” Senate bills from September would pass both chambers of Congress and Trump would sign them. If the GOP does retain control of the House then expect renewal of the China Select Committee for another term.

The PRC government has only officially reacted to Trump’s win with a brief Foreign Ministry statement that “we respect the choice of the American people and congratulate Mr. Trump on being elected as president of the United States”. I do wonder if they are disappointed that the vote was decisive and there is no unrest or credible allegations of voter fraud, issues that would have been useful additives to their anti-American propaganda efforts.

Having written this newsletter throughout the first Trump Administration I think we should believe that he means it when talks about tariffs, that he sees China as having reneged on his trade deal, that he thinks China and COVID cost him the 2020 election, and that Robert Lighthizer will have a meaningful role in his new administration. And if Lighthizer takes over the Department of Commerce as part of his role then the semiconductor controls will be more tightly enforced if not also expanded. Lighthizer published Donald Trump’s trade remedies reflect America’s troubled reality in the Financial Times last week and while not specifically about China it is worth reading.