It is hard to predict what Trump 2.0 means for US-China relations other than that we will likely see a lot more volatility in and worsening of the relationship, at least in the near term.Not all the House of Representative results are in but it looks like the GOP will control the Presidency, the Senate and the House. That trifecta of control could increase US pressure on Beijing, as the chances rise that some or most of the “China Week” Senate bills from September would pass both chambers of Congress and Trump would sign them. And if the GOP retains control of the House then expect renewal of the China Select Committee for another term.The PRC government has only officially reacted to Trump’s win with a brief Foreign Ministry statement that “we respect the choice of the American people and congratulate Mr. Trump on being elected as president of the United States”. I do wonder if they are disappointed that the vote was decisive and there is no unrest or credible allegations of voter fraud, issues that would have been useful additives to their anti-American propaganda efforts.Having written this newsletter during the first Trump Administration I think we should believe that he means it when talks about tariffs, that he sees China as having reneged on his trade deal, that he thinks China and COVID cost him the 2020 election, and that Robert Lighthizer will have a meaningful role in his new administration. And if Lighthizer takes over the Department of Commerce as part of his role then the semiconductor controls will be more tightly enforced if not also expanded. Lighthizer published Donald Trump’s trade remedies reflect America’s troubled reality in the Financial Times last week and while not specifically about China it is worth reading.
I like to see Bill's analysis but I don't agree at all here. China is in real economic trouble and they are bluffing. The U.S. right track, wrong track was 75-25 and the Dems lost as a result. What is the PRC right track, wrong track? We know what the private sector investors, consumers and young job seekers? Recovery from government investment in batteries, Green vehicles and solar panels for export? Come on. Europe is reducing the renewables push and putting up tariff barriers and Trump will do both many times over. China is in deep economic trouble.
I share much of your analysis Bill, as a Frenchman and a European, which is reassuring somehow to have a shared understanding on both sides of the Atlantic! Not about Sino-American mechanics - I'm too remote from DC - but about the level of confidence of the CCP's political elite in its ability to overcome any of Trump 2.0's new pitfalls, while expecting surprises that they will see as so many opportunities to exalt the transactional art of the new West Wing tenant.
The recent summits of the SCO in Pakistan and the BRICS+ in Kazan, Russia, further convince the CCP that they already have high ground and enough “market share” as ballast to keep their economy afloat, indeed.
I wonder about the future sacrificial victims of these upcoming trade and technology war games: will it be Europe first, and the 24-hour deal that the new Trump administration is about to unleash (if its yet-to-be-chosen team agrees to follow its architect)? Or Taiwan, which, while warmly welcoming his return, poorly conceals its permanent fear of being just a bargaining chip on this great chessboard whose rules Trump doesn't understand, but on which he plays as if he were playing on a golf green, stroke by stroke?
A European testimonial may shed some light on the situation: last February, at the Munich Security Conference, we witnessed a special China session, as China more than Europeans know how to arrange, even on European soil. It was a lively tit-for-tat duel between the unsinkable Fu Ying on the one hand, and Ben Cardin (D), Chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, on the other. Here's what he said (verbatim perfectible): “China poses a threat to peace in the region (...). Our position on Taiwan is intentionally ambiguous and complex, but what we refuse to see is a takeover of Taiwan by force. We will do everything in our power to prevent a takeover of Taiwan by force”. By force only?
It's starting to look a lot like Christmas for, variously, theocracies and autocracies around the world. It's amazing what deals become possible when we're all on the same page and one big happy, global, billionaire/trillionaire family.
I like to see Bill's analysis but I don't agree at all here. China is in real economic trouble and they are bluffing. The U.S. right track, wrong track was 75-25 and the Dems lost as a result. What is the PRC right track, wrong track? We know what the private sector investors, consumers and young job seekers? Recovery from government investment in batteries, Green vehicles and solar panels for export? Come on. Europe is reducing the renewables push and putting up tariff barriers and Trump will do both many times over. China is in deep economic trouble.
Keep dreaming
I share much of your analysis Bill, as a Frenchman and a European, which is reassuring somehow to have a shared understanding on both sides of the Atlantic! Not about Sino-American mechanics - I'm too remote from DC - but about the level of confidence of the CCP's political elite in its ability to overcome any of Trump 2.0's new pitfalls, while expecting surprises that they will see as so many opportunities to exalt the transactional art of the new West Wing tenant.
The recent summits of the SCO in Pakistan and the BRICS+ in Kazan, Russia, further convince the CCP that they already have high ground and enough “market share” as ballast to keep their economy afloat, indeed.
I wonder about the future sacrificial victims of these upcoming trade and technology war games: will it be Europe first, and the 24-hour deal that the new Trump administration is about to unleash (if its yet-to-be-chosen team agrees to follow its architect)? Or Taiwan, which, while warmly welcoming his return, poorly conceals its permanent fear of being just a bargaining chip on this great chessboard whose rules Trump doesn't understand, but on which he plays as if he were playing on a golf green, stroke by stroke?
A European testimonial may shed some light on the situation: last February, at the Munich Security Conference, we witnessed a special China session, as China more than Europeans know how to arrange, even on European soil. It was a lively tit-for-tat duel between the unsinkable Fu Ying on the one hand, and Ben Cardin (D), Chairman of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee, on the other. Here's what he said (verbatim perfectible): “China poses a threat to peace in the region (...). Our position on Taiwan is intentionally ambiguous and complex, but what we refuse to see is a takeover of Taiwan by force. We will do everything in our power to prevent a takeover of Taiwan by force”. By force only?
It's starting to look a lot like Christmas for, variously, theocracies and autocracies around the world. It's amazing what deals become possible when we're all on the same page and one big happy, global, billionaire/trillionaire family.