Happy Friday! I have a few starter questions but as always feel free to discuss whatever you would like. What is your take on the US-China balloon incident, and what implications do you think it might have for the already tense relations between the two countries? Would a possible phone call between Biden and Xi, and/or a meeting between Blinken and Wang Yi this weekend, help? Did the US overreact to the PRC balloon incursion?
Bill: WRT what Qiu Qingshan is writing, I would argue that "what it means" is that the Communist Party presently is disinclined to dial down the temperature of tensions with the United States.
This may change (and we may see signals of this in official publications) after the "Two Sessions", but I wouldn't wager money on such an outcome, despite the apparent optimism that Biden administration officials (and the President himself) have, perhaps cautiously, sought to convey.
The incursion of the stratospheric spy balloon into Canada and the United States, as well as the subsequent furore this sparked in both countries, really underscores the lack of trust that currently defines Sino-US strategic interactions. In my view, this is not mysterious--we've been watching "the straws accumulate on the camel's back" for at least four years.
In fact, the rot has arguably been building for much longer, if you count China's disingenuous behaviour in the South China Sea in the mid-2010s, its years-long destruction of Hong Kong's autonomy and the extent to which it has managed to alienate a substantial proportion of "the general public" in Canada, the United States, European Union countries, Australia and elsewhere.
"A corruption mess is ripping through the PRC football system, again. The semiconductor development efforts have also been riven with corruption investigations since last year. Xi has made a big deal about the development of football and semiconductors. What if anything does the corruption in two of Xi’s “signature” areas say about Xi and the system?"
To borrow from the French, Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. To borrow from the writer of Ecclesiastes, nothing new under the sun.
"How might parts of the US Congress react to some CEOs of major US firms attending events like the China development Forum, given the current state of US-China relations?"
What are these CEOs thinking? To borrow from someone, idiocy is doing the same thing again and again expecting a different result.
Mao's "struggles" won the Revolution, consolidated his god-like dictatorial power, starved ~30-40 million Chinese, inspired the Cultural Revolution, left China's economy in ruins, the Chinese people in poverty, the CCP in power and allowed Mao to die in his sleep.
The US should ramp up rather than ramp down. China is engaged in a constant existential civilisation struggle with the west. The US needs to wake up to the fact that China:
Won't stop
Won't forgive
Won't forget
Will be constant and unrelenting because its at the doctrine level, not the leader level. In this respect it is similar to the nationalistic agenda of Russia
The west needs to get real about this. In the longer term automation and multi-sourcing would reduce the need for Chinese labour, but it won't stop the de-facto stranglehold that China is putting on resources from the global south.
China only respects strength, the Philippines is a prime example of what little diplomacy has as an effect.
We're in a time of raw power politics. The US has been looking at power in one dimension and needs to move to a multi-dimensional power approach - while it still has the chance. Given China's involvement in South America, that time is quickly running out.
Inept diplomatic management. How is idiotic political opportunism in the United States different from the CCP’s manipulation of nationalism for external purposes any different?
Taiwan:
The central point of conflict between USA and China. Inept diplomatic management times ten.
Iran:
Joint self interest at work.
Struggle:
Ongoing inoculation of the public for upcoming international conflict and economic hardship.
Chairman Mao Saying:
Another attempt at propaganda inoculation of the public but more likely to scare than rally. Sounds great. Let’s jump off a cliff together.
Struggle / Weakness
Back to the well on nationalistic call to action. Another false premise that sounds true. CCP telling itself or factions that there will be no deviation from the current intransigence in international affairs. Another jump off the cliff moment.
None of my Chinese friends want to discuss the “struggle” that the government has in store for them. Older friends get right to the point and say that topic is too sensitive and that I shouldn’t talk about it. Younger friends don’t even acknowledge that I asked. I think they all see something unpleasant on the horizon and wish it would go away.
In my view ukraine reflects an evolution of geopolitics where countries have realised that power balances cannot be resolved by economic cooperation and that no one country can dominate an entire supply chain. So countries are starting to calculate how power can be enhanced through tugging on the levers of the international supply chain.
Expect more manoeuvres affecting energy supply, commodities, access to local markets, trade routes, currencies in the form of pacts, policies, sanctions as well as espionage and military operations going forwards.
I am hoping international organisations step up and can successfully create and enforce a proper framework for international competition
Bill (and of course folks here), would love to hear more about your take on the CDF (your #10). On one hand it’s obviously a sensitive time. On the other hand, not even the most Anti China folks in the government are saying most multinational companies should completely pull out of China. Then it’s not unusual to visit one of your largest markets and see how to partner with the government and other leaders wanting to do the same thing?
Rick D. Feb 18 I believe we had take action against China's boldness to curb this form of intel gathering but I believe our gov't should have been more forthcoming about OUR balloon --"airship" -- program over the past half century. If true that the Roswell, N.M. "incident" was an early part of this program it is shameful that our gov't would continue this hoax for so long. We can be informed of our intel efforts without a need the critical intel gathering and technical methods. This practice only makes it easier for the gullible to believe the falsehoods attending the 2020 election aftermath.
The PC media (politically conforming / not informing) has told us 1Kx it was a spy balloon, now CNN tells us US intel is investigating the possibility it was blown off course, which is why no one should believe a word about China (etc) in the PC media:
I am now hearing about Chinese citizens who are growing increasingly terrified about economics and political conditions in China. They fear leadership is steering the country into another Cultural Revolution nightmare. Perhaps that's Qu Quishan's message.
Enemies abound both foreign and domestic, fantasies like Mao's campaign to eradicate rats in the 1950s, current leadership has "brilliantly"eradicated COVID, cutting health and retirement benefits while raising all sorts of local "fees" to cover budgetary catastrophes is the road to "common prosperity" and so on and so forth..
I fear China is heading for darker times than we understand.
2023 Weekly Discussion Thread #6: Wang Yi in Europe; US-China; Struggle 斗争; Bao Fan; Football and Semiconductors corruption
Bill: WRT what Qiu Qingshan is writing, I would argue that "what it means" is that the Communist Party presently is disinclined to dial down the temperature of tensions with the United States.
This may change (and we may see signals of this in official publications) after the "Two Sessions", but I wouldn't wager money on such an outcome, despite the apparent optimism that Biden administration officials (and the President himself) have, perhaps cautiously, sought to convey.
The incursion of the stratospheric spy balloon into Canada and the United States, as well as the subsequent furore this sparked in both countries, really underscores the lack of trust that currently defines Sino-US strategic interactions. In my view, this is not mysterious--we've been watching "the straws accumulate on the camel's back" for at least four years.
In fact, the rot has arguably been building for much longer, if you count China's disingenuous behaviour in the South China Sea in the mid-2010s, its years-long destruction of Hong Kong's autonomy and the extent to which it has managed to alienate a substantial proportion of "the general public" in Canada, the United States, European Union countries, Australia and elsewhere.
"A corruption mess is ripping through the PRC football system, again. The semiconductor development efforts have also been riven with corruption investigations since last year. Xi has made a big deal about the development of football and semiconductors. What if anything does the corruption in two of Xi’s “signature” areas say about Xi and the system?"
To borrow from the French, Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. To borrow from the writer of Ecclesiastes, nothing new under the sun.
"How might parts of the US Congress react to some CEOs of major US firms attending events like the China development Forum, given the current state of US-China relations?"
What are these CEOs thinking? To borrow from someone, idiocy is doing the same thing again and again expecting a different result.
Mao's "struggles" won the Revolution, consolidated his god-like dictatorial power, starved ~30-40 million Chinese, inspired the Cultural Revolution, left China's economy in ruins, the Chinese people in poverty, the CCP in power and allowed Mao to die in his sleep.
Is Xi taking China down a similar path??
The US should ramp up rather than ramp down. China is engaged in a constant existential civilisation struggle with the west. The US needs to wake up to the fact that China:
Won't stop
Won't forgive
Won't forget
Will be constant and unrelenting because its at the doctrine level, not the leader level. In this respect it is similar to the nationalistic agenda of Russia
The west needs to get real about this. In the longer term automation and multi-sourcing would reduce the need for Chinese labour, but it won't stop the de-facto stranglehold that China is putting on resources from the global south.
China only respects strength, the Philippines is a prime example of what little diplomacy has as an effect.
We're in a time of raw power politics. The US has been looking at power in one dimension and needs to move to a multi-dimensional power approach - while it still has the chance. Given China's involvement in South America, that time is quickly running out.
Balloon:
Inept diplomatic management. How is idiotic political opportunism in the United States different from the CCP’s manipulation of nationalism for external purposes any different?
Taiwan:
The central point of conflict between USA and China. Inept diplomatic management times ten.
Iran:
Joint self interest at work.
Struggle:
Ongoing inoculation of the public for upcoming international conflict and economic hardship.
Chairman Mao Saying:
Another attempt at propaganda inoculation of the public but more likely to scare than rally. Sounds great. Let’s jump off a cliff together.
Struggle / Weakness
Back to the well on nationalistic call to action. Another false premise that sounds true. CCP telling itself or factions that there will be no deviation from the current intransigence in international affairs. Another jump off the cliff moment.
On Fan Bao, see Desmond Shum’s twitter. Very succinct.
None of my Chinese friends want to discuss the “struggle” that the government has in store for them. Older friends get right to the point and say that topic is too sensitive and that I shouldn’t talk about it. Younger friends don’t even acknowledge that I asked. I think they all see something unpleasant on the horizon and wish it would go away.
In my view ukraine reflects an evolution of geopolitics where countries have realised that power balances cannot be resolved by economic cooperation and that no one country can dominate an entire supply chain. So countries are starting to calculate how power can be enhanced through tugging on the levers of the international supply chain.
Expect more manoeuvres affecting energy supply, commodities, access to local markets, trade routes, currencies in the form of pacts, policies, sanctions as well as espionage and military operations going forwards.
I am hoping international organisations step up and can successfully create and enforce a proper framework for international competition
Bill (and of course folks here), would love to hear more about your take on the CDF (your #10). On one hand it’s obviously a sensitive time. On the other hand, not even the most Anti China folks in the government are saying most multinational companies should completely pull out of China. Then it’s not unusual to visit one of your largest markets and see how to partner with the government and other leaders wanting to do the same thing?
Rick D. Feb 18 I believe we had take action against China's boldness to curb this form of intel gathering but I believe our gov't should have been more forthcoming about OUR balloon --"airship" -- program over the past half century. If true that the Roswell, N.M. "incident" was an early part of this program it is shameful that our gov't would continue this hoax for so long. We can be informed of our intel efforts without a need the critical intel gathering and technical methods. This practice only makes it easier for the gullible to believe the falsehoods attending the 2020 election aftermath.
The PC media (politically conforming / not informing) has told us 1Kx it was a spy balloon, now CNN tells us US intel is investigating the possibility it was blown off course, which is why no one should believe a word about China (etc) in the PC media:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/18/china/blinken-wang-yi-munich-intl-hnk/index.html
Think Wang Yi required this reported before agreeing to a meeting with AB?
I am now hearing about Chinese citizens who are growing increasingly terrified about economics and political conditions in China. They fear leadership is steering the country into another Cultural Revolution nightmare. Perhaps that's Qu Quishan's message.
Enemies abound both foreign and domestic, fantasies like Mao's campaign to eradicate rats in the 1950s, current leadership has "brilliantly"eradicated COVID, cutting health and retirement benefits while raising all sorts of local "fees" to cover budgetary catastrophes is the road to "common prosperity" and so on and so forth..
I fear China is heading for darker times than we understand.
REPORT ON RAISI'S VISIT TO CHINA:
https://thecradle.co/article-view/21548/raisi-in-beijing-iran-china-strategic-plans-go-full-throttle