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China has always been a large civilization which has developed largely on its own terms mainly because of relative geographical isolation and outlook; for a long time, Chinese emperors were just not convinced that the rest of the world was worth bothering with. The nations on its periphery were smaller(Korea, Vietnam and Japan) and felt culturally indebted to China. Modern China, the PRC, has combined features of Chinese imperial government, Marxism, capitalism into its own system of government under a revolutionary party which never made the transition to a ruling national party, and assumed the role of a social vanguard party in order to justify its monopoly on power. My view is that western and Japanese aggression against China, and an ineffective KMT lead to the creation of the CCP. It took 150 years, but the west and Japan created their own Frankenstein monster with the CCP.

The question we are now facing is what will this Frankenstein do? Will it be focused on its own region as China traditionally has been, or will it be expansive? Is its system of government exportable to other nations? Right now, I tend to think that the CCP's rise, and Xi's rise, are a set of unique historical conditions unique to China. Of course, I could be completely wrong.

In 19th century Europe, the US and its Declaration of Independence were considered to be a strange experiment in mob rule destined to eventually fail. In the 20th century, the US won two world wars and its largest single challenger collapsed under its own weight. Instead of being a political experiment, the US's values were widely embraced by the rest of the world. Even China looked up to the US until the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.

My point is that if China is going to export its system, it most likely will have to pick a few fights and win them. Is Xi the person to do that? If he does take that path, he will have to convince Chinese that war is the only way for China to win recognition as a global power. That is not an easy sell.

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