Aloha..another short and sweet newsletter, thanks for your patience this week. The Essential Eight 1. Xi’s Europe trip EU leaders urge China to open up domestic market | Financial Times $$: France, Germany and the European Commission have pushed Xi Jinping to open China’s protected domestic markets to foreign business, with Angela Merkel insisting on “a certain amount of reciprocity” from Beijing to seal an EU-China investment agreement next year.
The SCMP yesterday quoted one David Li Daokui as saying “We are prepared for this new president to create trouble,” Li said, recounting comments by the Chinese president in a small-group discussion shortly before Trump’s inauguration in January 2017. “He is new, from outside political institutions. He does not believe in a lot of things. He will try, but he will be burnt.” and “Let’s see who blinks first,” he recalled Xi as saying.
Assuming these quotes are accurate, then it doesn't sound like Xi is the least bit interested in any deal that is not totally on his terms.
Presuming current reforms could actually put China on the path that we hoped it would be on starting ~25 years ago, people would look at China's success far less begrudgingly - at least if we're all playing the same game, the West can blame itself for losing. But I don't think anyone is counting on being able to take IP theft, egregious enforcement of NTBs, and other similar actions off the table for China. So the question is, do you even try to do a deal? Enforcement mechanisms can't directly address these issues, so a deal just lends China unwarranted legitimacy - imperilously so for those in Xinjiang's camps...
Xi ends Europe trip; Lighthizer on trade talks; Committee on the Present Danger: China; Xu Zhangrun
The SCMP yesterday quoted one David Li Daokui as saying “We are prepared for this new president to create trouble,” Li said, recounting comments by the Chinese president in a small-group discussion shortly before Trump’s inauguration in January 2017. “He is new, from outside political institutions. He does not believe in a lot of things. He will try, but he will be burnt.” and “Let’s see who blinks first,” he recalled Xi as saying.
Assuming these quotes are accurate, then it doesn't sound like Xi is the least bit interested in any deal that is not totally on his terms.
Presuming current reforms could actually put China on the path that we hoped it would be on starting ~25 years ago, people would look at China's success far less begrudgingly - at least if we're all playing the same game, the West can blame itself for losing. But I don't think anyone is counting on being able to take IP theft, egregious enforcement of NTBs, and other similar actions off the table for China. So the question is, do you even try to do a deal? Enforcement mechanisms can't directly address these issues, so a deal just lends China unwarranted legitimacy - imperilously so for those in Xinjiang's camps...