Hey everybody, I thought we'd try something new: a Friday open thread. Any topic is fair game but please keep it respectful. I'l be here for the next half hour at least.
Hi, both sides seem to be hardening their positions, and the obvious bridges who once might have toned things down-kissinger, paulson, schwarzmann et al-seem to have little juice with president trump over china. i think both sides have to feel more pain, and tone down the rhetoric and the escalations, before anything can restart
Going a bit further down the rabbit hole here - What would it take for the U.S. and Chinese sides to tone down the rhetoric and escalations? Do you believe that the average Chinese person is buying in to these increasingly anti-American and nationalist tones? People seem to be buying into the anti-Chinese tone here, just yesterday, one of my interns was heckled on the street in DC (he's Chinese) and was told to 'go home and stop stealing our stuff.'
I wish that were the case here in DC. We get all sorts here unfortunately. The more physically close to the White House you are in this city, the more likely you are to run into this sort of thing.
Thanks everyone, sorry if I did not get to your question, and apologies for the initial tech issues. One thing I did not see mentioned is Taiwan. I think Taiwan is going to become an even friction point in the near future, between the upcoming elections, and the fact that Tsai has a challenger inside the DPP, as well as possible US moves.
if you get the chance: what do you think about the near- and long-term future of Taiwan as a nation-state and/or as a Chinese province (or something in between)? Will America be able to guard the status quo? Would Taiwanese necessarily even want American support for the status quo when presented with continuing inducements from Beijing? What is the likelihood of a Chinese invasion? Since the CCP would almost certainly fight to the death for Taiwan, is the Trump administration (and future administrations) prepared for an endless war to defend Taiwan?
from my note yesterday, serious but not as bad as some thought at first glance. wasn't a people's daily editorial, xinhua used it last april in context of trade war
My thoughts is that China is sure that the US will back down, with regards to Huawei, in the same way we did with ZTE, that's why they are comfortable using such strong rhetoric. Not sure what Bill thinks?
much harder for trump to back down on huawei. and if he does expect congress to step in and legislate it...there is massive bipartisan support on tis issue
rare earths, targeted pressure on companies and exec caught in the hauwei situation, possibly lotte-like actions, possible organized protests as against japan in 2012, but not until we are past june 4. but letting protests happen is risky, think further down in the tool kit now
if i knew that i would quit my day job...seriousluy, i dont think it ends any time soon, best case is a cease fire, as was close in may, but now the two sides seem even further apart, and other issues are getting more contentious as well
In your opinion, is the current level of resentment towards the US (products, people, etc.) by Chinese citizens currently at it's most negative in the modern era?
I'm sure you've got quite a lot of questions to respond to here, so I just wanted to thank you for taking the time to hold this kind of forum. I hope this weekly thread becomes a regular Friday ritual for me to read through and and post in.
Hi. China's establishment of an "entities list" seems childish. Like the old playground taunt "I'm rubber, you're glue..." I'm starting to think Xi Jinping is really just not very good at his job. Your thoughts?
A number of retailers (e.g., Dollar Tree, Bed Bath & Beyond) are hinting at real pain coming soon in light of imposed tranche 3 and coming tranche 4 tariffs. J.P.Morgan analysts predict that Dick's Sporting Goods' total tariff exposure will jump from 5% of inventory to 38% upon the imposition of tranche 4 tariffs. As you know, the retail space is already in bad shape -- globally. Do you get any sense from your contacts that the Trump Administration is even remotely factoring in the potential cascading effects of new tariffs (in terms of store closures, job loss, consumer confidence, etc.)?
What books do you recommend for those trying to better understand Chinese American relations? Or to better understand the Chinese political system for those relatively unfamiliar?
What is the likelihood or the possibility of this trade war triggering an actual physical confrontation. We saw that Kennedy and Kruschev almost lost control of their own military during the Cuban missile crisis. At one point they both felt like they were losing control of the situation.
Hi Bill! Thanks for organizing this. I have a personal question: Do you think it's safe for a chinese national who works for a human rights organization in the US to visit China in current political climate?
hard to say, i think there will be increasing sanctions but those will likely only cause beijing to fig in more. getting the muslim world to condemn them might help, but so far china has been successful at coopting them
i think it has strengthened xi. given everything trump is doing globally it is really hard to make a cogent argument that xi screwed up the trade talks, unless you think he should have just rolled over. in fact, xi can say this guy is impossible to deal with and he has shown us clearly what many of us believed anyway, that us is out to keep us down, and so the only way to push back on the us it be more unified and unified around a strong leader with a strong military
yes, that's a great point. But I also hear that managing the relationship with the us is one of the key deliverables xi is judged on, and some say that he has unnecessairly overexposed china. one might argue that being less aggressive on some issues (South China Sea, B&R), china wouldn't be facing the kind of bypartisan antagonism it is now facing in the us
For the trade negotiations to succeed, Trump needs to throw Xi a bone -- some issue on which Xi can declare victory to his public. What could Trump realistically offer that Xi might accept?
Mr. Bishop, What do you think is required to have the WTO negotiate and enforce a fair and competitive trading environment between the U.S. and China? I know this gets into sovereignty issues with both sides.
it already is, and likely become more of one if the us imposes sanctions on chen quanguo and other officials under the magnitsky act. my understanding is those are drawn up, trump just has not been willing to pull the trigger
i think they both think they do. i think both sides can inflict a lot of pain. for china they can take it but in doing so will have to get more repressive, and will have to do more fiscal and monetary stimulus, so medium to longer term probably worse for china
Is there anything interesting going on between Jack Ma and the govt? There have been claims from dissidents that Jack has had his travel controlled, forced to step down from BABA, etc.
there have been rumors for years, never been convinced they had much merit but thsat doesnt mean they dont. xi apparently never liked him, from the days they overlapped when xi was zhejiang party secretary
Here's one for you, from a discussion among some China folks yesterday: what are some likely worst-case actions we could see from Beijing if the US-China trade relationship goes into a nosedive? They just issued the ureliable foreigners list. What would be 10 things folks might/could expect (and should think about hedging against) along a similar vein in increasing severity?
targeted actions against us firms in china--see playbook against south korea; detention of individuals--see kovrig playbook; letting people hit the street--see 2012 playbook against japan, though that is the riskiest domestically; rare earths; discouraging tourist travel to us
Do you think further urbanization and agricultural automation can offset an ageing workforce and soon-to-be declining population in terms of continued growth?
a small nato easter european country would be better off standing united with nato and the eu...on its own it will be easy for china to have its way, kind of like wolves like to pick off the weakest of a herd
I started Chinese language at college in 1972. I got my BA in Chinese, and then worked in Taiwan for 10 years and China 15 years. Fortunately when I went to Taiwan in 1973-1977, China was closed due to the Cultural Revolution, so I spent my first decade plus in Taiwan, a really great country. My Chinese was also extremely useful in Burma, Thailand, Pakistan and Greece. I encourage all young students to start early.
Thanks everyone, will do this again soon. have a good weekend
You too, Bill.
Thanks, Bill!
Thank you, Bill.
Thanks, Bill!
apologies, system is overloaded, probably should have limited the size of the first test, working on it
Sorry about this everybody! We’ve added some more servers so hopefully it works a bit faster :)
Awesome! Shared on my social.
Do you think there's a realistic way forward in the current trade negotiations?
Hi, both sides seem to be hardening their positions, and the obvious bridges who once might have toned things down-kissinger, paulson, schwarzmann et al-seem to have little juice with president trump over china. i think both sides have to feel more pain, and tone down the rhetoric and the escalations, before anything can restart
Going a bit further down the rabbit hole here - What would it take for the U.S. and Chinese sides to tone down the rhetoric and escalations? Do you believe that the average Chinese person is buying in to these increasingly anti-American and nationalist tones? People seem to be buying into the anti-Chinese tone here, just yesterday, one of my interns was heckled on the street in DC (he's Chinese) and was told to 'go home and stop stealing our stuff.'
I can hardly imagine someone just randomly heckling a Chinese person on the street. People in Seattle don't take kindly to blatant racism.
I wish that were the case here in DC. We get all sorts here unfortunately. The more physically close to the White House you are in this city, the more likely you are to run into this sort of thing.
Frazier, sorry to say it, but it happens to people in Seattle too.
Thanks everyone, sorry if I did not get to your question, and apologies for the initial tech issues. One thing I did not see mentioned is Taiwan. I think Taiwan is going to become an even friction point in the near future, between the upcoming elections, and the fact that Tsai has a challenger inside the DPP, as well as possible US moves.
if you get the chance: what do you think about the near- and long-term future of Taiwan as a nation-state and/or as a Chinese province (or something in between)? Will America be able to guard the status quo? Would Taiwanese necessarily even want American support for the status quo when presented with continuing inducements from Beijing? What is the likelihood of a Chinese invasion? Since the CCP would almost certainly fight to the death for Taiwan, is the Trump administration (and future administrations) prepared for an endless war to defend Taiwan?
Just an FYI this thread spammed my email address after replying to it
Sorry we are going to fix that
How serious are the implications of the "don't say I didn't warn you" rhetoric from China? Is that an obvious escalation of the trade war?
from my note yesterday, serious but not as bad as some thought at first glance. wasn't a people's daily editorial, xinhua used it last april in context of trade war
My thoughts is that China is sure that the US will back down, with regards to Huawei, in the same way we did with ZTE, that's why they are comfortable using such strong rhetoric. Not sure what Bill thinks?
much harder for trump to back down on huawei. and if he does expect congress to step in and legislate it...there is massive bipartisan support on tis issue
What do you think of the alibaba dual listing rumor
What do the Chinese view as the realistic nuclear respond to tariff escalation? CNY breaking 7? 2017 Lotte Group-like actions? Thanks
rare earths, targeted pressure on companies and exec caught in the hauwei situation, possibly lotte-like actions, possible organized protests as against japan in 2012, but not until we are past june 4. but letting protests happen is risky, think further down in the tool kit now
Two questions: what are the cards-besides rare-earths and the US companies working in China- China holds in the current conflict?
Second question: do you think there will be European contries, besides Italy hat will sign silk-road related agreements? Thank Bill
How will the US-China trade war end?
if i knew that i would quit my day job...seriousluy, i dont think it ends any time soon, best case is a cease fire, as was close in may, but now the two sides seem even further apart, and other issues are getting more contentious as well
Dear Bill,
Right into it, US-China:
1. How does it get better from here?
2. How does it get worse from here?
3. What has surprised you the most, thus far?
Thanks so much for doing this!
Ryan
In your opinion, is the current level of resentment towards the US (products, people, etc.) by Chinese citizens currently at it's most negative in the modern era?
tough to answer but i would bet we are close if not quite there yet
I am late to the party. So glad that you will be doing this again. Thank you so much Beale for your expertise and more than that, sharing it with us.
i like this idea!
I'm sure you've got quite a lot of questions to respond to here, so I just wanted to thank you for taking the time to hold this kind of forum. I hope this weekly thread becomes a regular Friday ritual for me to read through and and post in.
Hi. China's establishment of an "entities list" seems childish. Like the old playground taunt "I'm rubber, you're glue..." I'm starting to think Xi Jinping is really just not very good at his job. Your thoughts?
he is old school, with advisors who may not have much experience in the west, and dont care what the west thinks
Any tips for coping with in-laws and relentless xidada weichat videos?
A number of retailers (e.g., Dollar Tree, Bed Bath & Beyond) are hinting at real pain coming soon in light of imposed tranche 3 and coming tranche 4 tariffs. J.P.Morgan analysts predict that Dick's Sporting Goods' total tariff exposure will jump from 5% of inventory to 38% upon the imposition of tranche 4 tariffs. As you know, the retail space is already in bad shape -- globally. Do you get any sense from your contacts that the Trump Administration is even remotely factoring in the potential cascading effects of new tariffs (in terms of store closures, job loss, consumer confidence, etc.)?
What is your take on the impact of domestic interest groups potentially leading to the downfall of the Belt and Road Initiative, or at least making it relatively unsuccessful in its geopolitical goals? Tanner Greer has written about this here: http://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-utterly-dysfunctional-belt-and-road.html
i think it is way too early to write it off, it is in the constitution, huge xi program, they are reining it in and refining it
Military content of the BRI could increase
What books do you recommend for those trying to better understand Chinese American relations? Or to better understand the Chinese political system for those relatively unfamiliar?
richard mcgregor's The Party
thanks!
When will you go on Joe Rogan podcast?
+1!!
Cannot think of a more vital time for your insights, Bill. Thanks to Axios for bringing you to light.
thanks
Hi! Do you think the Mexico tariff hike means something for the US-China talks?
i think it means that china will think it is even harder to trust anything trump says, or any deal they might get close to
What are your top 3 book recommendations for novices looking to learn more about contemporary China?
richard macgregor the party is at the top of my list
Nice
What is the likelihood or the possibility of this trade war triggering an actual physical confrontation. We saw that Kennedy and Kruschev almost lost control of their own military during the Cuban missile crisis. At one point they both felt like they were losing control of the situation.
Hi Bill! Thanks for organizing this. I have a personal question: Do you think it's safe for a chinese national who works for a human rights organization in the US to visit China in current political climate?
What could the US realistically do to change Chinese policy in Xinjiang?
hard to say, i think there will be increasing sanctions but those will likely only cause beijing to fig in more. getting the muslim world to condemn them might help, but so far china has been successful at coopting them
Do you think we have reached a point where US travelers to China are at risk of harassment/worse?
What do we know about MOFCOM’s unreliable entities list?
Great idea, a little more advance notice probably works better, at least for me.
Hi Bill, we're one and a half year into Trump's maximum pressure campaign against China, how much do you think it has weakend Xi, if it has? Thanks
i think it has strengthened xi. given everything trump is doing globally it is really hard to make a cogent argument that xi screwed up the trade talks, unless you think he should have just rolled over. in fact, xi can say this guy is impossible to deal with and he has shown us clearly what many of us believed anyway, that us is out to keep us down, and so the only way to push back on the us it be more unified and unified around a strong leader with a strong military
yes, that's a great point. But I also hear that managing the relationship with the us is one of the key deliverables xi is judged on, and some say that he has unnecessairly overexposed china. one might argue that being less aggressive on some issues (South China Sea, B&R), china wouldn't be facing the kind of bypartisan antagonism it is now facing in the us
What do you think the greatest challenges are in EU-China trade today?
How far do you think the White House would go in this trade war? It looks it is always we strikes first and they fight back.
Do you see the tension with China is a conflict of civilization?
i think china see the conflict with the us as one
How about us? Do you think most people here see it this way?
How much leverage does China have over Iran? Would Iran really close the Strait of Hormuz when China is such a huge customer?
For the trade negotiations to succeed, Trump needs to throw Xi a bone -- some issue on which Xi can declare victory to his public. What could Trump realistically offer that Xi might accept?
Love this way. However, there are too many questions all at once. Can Bill set up a few topics for each round of conversation?
Mr. Bishop, What do you think is required to have the WTO negotiate and enforce a fair and competitive trading environment between the U.S. and China? I know this gets into sovereignty issues with both sides.
What's your favourite film?
Do you foresee the issue of Uyghur persecution ever becoming an issue in foreign relations between US and China or China and the UN?
it already is, and likely become more of one if the us imposes sanctions on chen quanguo and other officials under the magnitsky act. my understanding is those are drawn up, trump just has not been willing to pull the trigger
Thanks for your response Bill, much appreciated. Looking forward to more of these.
Ultimately, who has the upper hand in this trade war? The US or China?
i think they both think they do. i think both sides can inflict a lot of pain. for china they can take it but in doing so will have to get more repressive, and will have to do more fiscal and monetary stimulus, so medium to longer term probably worse for china
Are you able to catch up to these questions in 30 minutes? :) :)
nope, bit off more than i could chew today. sorry
You're doing great. This is a lot of fun!
Amazing to see a brief snapshot of all of the interesting thinking and inquiries about this topic!
Is there anything interesting going on between Jack Ma and the govt? There have been claims from dissidents that Jack has had his travel controlled, forced to step down from BABA, etc.
there have been rumors for years, never been convinced they had much merit but thsat doesnt mean they dont. xi apparently never liked him, from the days they overlapped when xi was zhejiang party secretary
Here's one for you, from a discussion among some China folks yesterday: what are some likely worst-case actions we could see from Beijing if the US-China trade relationship goes into a nosedive? They just issued the ureliable foreigners list. What would be 10 things folks might/could expect (and should think about hedging against) along a similar vein in increasing severity?
targeted actions against us firms in china--see playbook against south korea; detention of individuals--see kovrig playbook; letting people hit the street--see 2012 playbook against japan, though that is the riskiest domestically; rare earths; discouraging tourist travel to us
Do you think further urbanization and agricultural automation can offset an ageing workforce and soon-to-be declining population in terms of continued growth?
i think the odds are better than a lot of people think
Can good relationship with China be of national security value to a small nato member eastern european country?
a small nato easter european country would be better off standing united with nato and the eu...on its own it will be easy for china to have its way, kind of like wolves like to pick off the weakest of a herd
Any public companies in China you would invest in?
Thanks! Great format! What's the difference btw a guiding opinion 指导意见, an ordinary opinion 意见 and several opinions 若干意见? which is more authoritative?
I started Chinese language at college in 1972. I got my BA in Chinese, and then worked in Taiwan for 10 years and China 15 years. Fortunately when I went to Taiwan in 1973-1977, China was closed due to the Cultural Revolution, so I spent my first decade plus in Taiwan, a really great country. My Chinese was also extremely useful in Burma, Thailand, Pakistan and Greece. I encourage all young students to start early.
Got to this a little late, but thoroughly enjoyed reading the thread. Great idea.
Excellent exchange of ideas. Trump has forced China’s hand, everything is clearer now. China is preparing to go without the USA. Focus on ROW.