Hey everybody, I thought we'd try something new: a Friday open thread. Any topic is fair game but please keep it respectful. I'l be here for the next half hour at least.
I started Chinese language at college in 1972. I got my BA in Chinese, and then worked in Taiwan for 10 years and China 15 years. Fortunately when I went to Taiwan in 1973-1977, China was closed due to the Cultural Revolution, so I spent my first decade plus in Taiwan, a really great country. My Chinese was also extremely useful in Burma, Thailand, Pakistan and Greece. I encourage all young students to start early.
do you think it would be useful, in the context of a trade war that may not end in the forseeable future -and one that may have perhaps at least part of its root dug in a deep cultural misunderstanding- for Western countries to start learning Chinese, like China is learning English?
By the way Samsung, HTC, Sirin Labs (Israel) and Pundi X (Singapore) all have Blockchain Smartphones on the market and crypto currency usage with crypto wallets is not dying it is growing so why have all the Chinese Smartphone vendors not realized that since they sell their Smartphones globally, not just in China that they are causing their subscribers a huge risk by not using exiting security technology already in the Smartphones to protect private keys stored on the phone?
Hello Bill, Why have all the Mainland Chinese Smartphone manufacturers not developed a Blockchain Smartphone, that is a Smartphone which either has its own crypto currency wallet enabled or the ability to protect other downloaded crypto currency wallets globally from Android Play Store, as there are literally hundreds being downloaded now onto Smartphones globally (outside of China) and none of wallets are protected in tamper resistant hardware on the phone and all use Android os. This is a huge security risk for the theft of the private keys in the wallets of Android os Smartphones to be stolen, and Chinese Smartphone vendors know this but it seems because their own Government bans the use of Crypto wallets inside the country they don't feel they need to worry about hackers routing their consumers' Smartphones globally to steal crypto currencies. What is the story with all this? Thanks,
(1) end technology transfers, (2) fair treatment for foreign companies, (3) reduce industrial subsidies, (4) end China's economic espionage against non-Chinese companies, (5) reduce non-tariff barriers, including those used to punish foreign countries for disobeying China.
Bill, your thoughts on Xi planning a Second Informal face-to-face with Indian Prime Minister N Modi in India, in light of their first one in which Xi had personally taken Modi to his home province...?
Should the US have a policy of reciprocity with China with regards to educations and media? Do you think the US will do anything meaningful to combat ccp influence in schools and Hollywood?
Hi Bill. Do you think attacks against Huawei are felt more personally by China than trade tariffs or ZTE sanctions? (Which had more legitimate judicial backing because of Iran sanction violations.) I've heard some commentary that because Huawei is a national treasure of China, a truly innovative company, that it feels like a more personal and unfair attack, which plays into the whole "contain China" narrative and is contributing to a surge in nationalistic sentiment.
Hi Bill, long time subscriber here, keep up the good work. Wondering if you could share some insight into your reader base? What's the split between investors, corporate, entrepreneurs, analysts, politicians, academics and any other group?
As China electric transporation sector zooms past all, do they have a 'gas tax' per gallon, which goes to road maintenance like in the US? Backwards states like NC, have proposed legislation to increase registration on electric and hybrid vehicles, missing the clear air public health, habitat, biodiversity 'value' benefits.
One thing that has always baffled me...what's the end game with this trade war? Is it to force China to open more? Or is it to force America companies to extract China from their supply chain? The latter seems hard to imagine a few weeks ago, but it seems like it is becoming a reality?
"While not exactly your requisite “Why I Am Leaving China” blog post, this show gives Kaiser Kuo and David Moser the chance to talk to Bill about the reasons behind his decision, and explore why he sees an increasingly strained relationship between China and the United States over the next few years."
Thanks everyone, sorry if I did not get to your question, and apologies for the initial tech issues. One thing I did not see mentioned is Taiwan. I think Taiwan is going to become an even friction point in the near future, between the upcoming elections, and the fact that Tsai has a challenger inside the DPP, as well as possible US moves.
if you get the chance: what do you think about the near- and long-term future of Taiwan as a nation-state and/or as a Chinese province (or something in between)? Will America be able to guard the status quo? Would Taiwanese necessarily even want American support for the status quo when presented with continuing inducements from Beijing? What is the likelihood of a Chinese invasion? Since the CCP would almost certainly fight to the death for Taiwan, is the Trump administration (and future administrations) prepared for an endless war to defend Taiwan?
i think it has strengthened xi. given everything trump is doing globally it is really hard to make a cogent argument that xi screwed up the trade talks, unless you think he should have just rolled over. in fact, xi can say this guy is impossible to deal with and he has shown us clearly what many of us believed anyway, that us is out to keep us down, and so the only way to push back on the us it be more unified and unified around a strong leader with a strong military
yes, that's a great point. But I also hear that managing the relationship with the us is one of the key deliverables xi is judged on, and some say that he has unnecessairly overexposed china. one might argue that being less aggressive on some issues (South China Sea, B&R), china wouldn't be facing the kind of bypartisan antagonism it is now facing in the us
Bill, what percent of the people you interact with on China would you estimate actually understand that China's banking system is a fractional reserve system as exists in the West, ie the banks are literally creating money each time they make loans? And all public disclosure of any non-performing loans have to be pre-approved by the Party -- down to the individual loan level?
Bill, what percent of the people you interact with on China would you estimate actually understand that China's banking system is a fractional reserve system as exists in the West, ie the banks are literally creating money each time they make loans? And all public disclosure of any non-performing loans have to be pre-approved by the Party -- down to the individual loan level?
With all the illegal practices China hasbbeen involced wouldn't mske sense to request the UN to setup an investigative committe with powers of slapping sanctions and heavy monetary "tickets" if not even prosecute them legally. Someone has to make them accountable or they will continue yo operate thinking they are above the law. Dont forget there are billoons of them!
There were moments of spiking nationalist sentiment in the past, such as 1999 (embassy bombing), 2001 (Hainan crash) and 2012 (Senkaku/Diaoyu). How do you compare what's going on now to those moments?
Rare earths are incredibly intertwined with at least all electronics manufacturing. It is difficult for China to cut off the west, but they could leverage their rare earth position to capture a greater share of the value chain. Does Trump have amyone who understands this?
There have been moments of spiking nationalist sentiment in the past, such as 1999 (embassy bombing), 2001 (Hainan crash), and 2012 (Senkaku/Diaoyu). How do you compare what we are seeing now to those moments?
What do you think will be the most obvious and the most effective way(s) in which China will be trying to affect the outcome in the coming Taiwan presidential elections?
What is the likelihood or the possibility of this trade war triggering an actual physical confrontation. We saw that Kennedy and Kruschev almost lost control of their own military during the Cuban missile crisis. At one point they both felt like they were losing control of the situation.
I'm sure you've got quite a lot of questions to respond to here, so I just wanted to thank you for taking the time to hold this kind of forum. I hope this weekly thread becomes a regular Friday ritual for me to read through and and post in.
Is this trade war real in terms of the long term social and political impact on China? Isn't it in the party's long term legitimacy to get any deal with the U.S. than a no deal on trade?
I started Chinese language at college in 1972. I got my BA in Chinese, and then worked in Taiwan for 10 years and China 15 years. Fortunately when I went to Taiwan in 1973-1977, China was closed due to the Cultural Revolution, so I spent my first decade plus in Taiwan, a really great country. My Chinese was also extremely useful in Burma, Thailand, Pakistan and Greece. I encourage all young students to start early.
I have to say, this has been an excellent read since your readers are well-informed and the questions--and answers--incisive
do you think it would be useful, in the context of a trade war that may not end in the forseeable future -and one that may have perhaps at least part of its root dug in a deep cultural misunderstanding- for Western countries to start learning Chinese, like China is learning English?
Just saw this. Is it finished ?
Got to this a little late, but thoroughly enjoyed reading the thread. Great idea.
Excellent exchange of ideas. Trump has forced China’s hand, everything is clearer now. China is preparing to go without the USA. Focus on ROW.
Great idea, a little more advance notice probably works better, at least for me.
How is the US/China trade war affecting the Belt and Road project? Is there more interest in Europe for the Road ?
By the way Samsung, HTC, Sirin Labs (Israel) and Pundi X (Singapore) all have Blockchain Smartphones on the market and crypto currency usage with crypto wallets is not dying it is growing so why have all the Chinese Smartphone vendors not realized that since they sell their Smartphones globally, not just in China that they are causing their subscribers a huge risk by not using exiting security technology already in the Smartphones to protect private keys stored on the phone?
Hello Bill, Why have all the Mainland Chinese Smartphone manufacturers not developed a Blockchain Smartphone, that is a Smartphone which either has its own crypto currency wallet enabled or the ability to protect other downloaded crypto currency wallets globally from Android Play Store, as there are literally hundreds being downloaded now onto Smartphones globally (outside of China) and none of wallets are protected in tamper resistant hardware on the phone and all use Android os. This is a huge security risk for the theft of the private keys in the wallets of Android os Smartphones to be stolen, and Chinese Smartphone vendors know this but it seems because their own Government bans the use of Crypto wallets inside the country they don't feel they need to worry about hackers routing their consumers' Smartphones globally to steal crypto currencies. What is the story with all this? Thanks,
Do we precisely know what the US is requiring of China???
(1) end technology transfers, (2) fair treatment for foreign companies, (3) reduce industrial subsidies, (4) end China's economic espionage against non-Chinese companies, (5) reduce non-tariff barriers, including those used to punish foreign countries for disobeying China.
gah, think i just missed it but wondering if there were any whispers on which companies might be on this rumored blacklist? Like this idea, Bill!
i like this idea!
I am late to the party. So glad that you will be doing this again. Thank you so much Beale for your expertise and more than that, sharing it with us.
Two questions: what are the cards-besides rare-earths and the US companies working in China- China holds in the current conflict?
Second question: do you think there will be European contries, besides Italy hat will sign silk-road related agreements? Thank Bill
Bill, your thoughts on Xi planning a Second Informal face-to-face with Indian Prime Minister N Modi in India, in light of their first one in which Xi had personally taken Modi to his home province...?
Good idea. Will comment in the future.
Should the US have a policy of reciprocity with China with regards to educations and media? Do you think the US will do anything meaningful to combat ccp influence in schools and Hollywood?
Hi Bill. Do you think attacks against Huawei are felt more personally by China than trade tariffs or ZTE sanctions? (Which had more legitimate judicial backing because of Iran sanction violations.) I've heard some commentary that because Huawei is a national treasure of China, a truly innovative company, that it feels like a more personal and unfair attack, which plays into the whole "contain China" narrative and is contributing to a surge in nationalistic sentiment.
Thanks everyone, will do this again soon. have a good weekend
You too, Bill.
Thanks, Bill!
Thank you, Bill.
Thanks, Bill!
Hi Bill, long time subscriber here, keep up the good work. Wondering if you could share some insight into your reader base? What's the split between investors, corporate, entrepreneurs, analysts, politicians, academics and any other group?
Higher Chinese IQ will outfox low IQ West. East wind blows more intelligence.
Do you think it is our intention to decouple the tech and trade from China? If so, what’s the benefit?
As China electric transporation sector zooms past all, do they have a 'gas tax' per gallon, which goes to road maintenance like in the US? Backwards states like NC, have proposed legislation to increase registration on electric and hybrid vehicles, missing the clear air public health, habitat, biodiversity 'value' benefits.
One thing that has always baffled me...what's the end game with this trade war? Is it to force China to open more? Or is it to force America companies to extract China from their supply chain? The latter seems hard to imagine a few weeks ago, but it seems like it is becoming a reality?
Thanks for doing this, Bill. What factors - or possible warning signs - led you to return to Washington from Beijing?
i talked about them in this 2015 podcast http://www.chinafile.com/library/sinica-podcast/china-watchers-china-watcher-decamps?fbclid=IwAR0YNa3ejj4jv88p1ib9Yn-cgYUpGF48fVcAYaECKLY2s2HoJQOefnpFIeI
"While not exactly your requisite “Why I Am Leaving China” blog post, this show gives Kaiser Kuo and David Moser the chance to talk to Bill about the reasons behind his decision, and explore why he sees an increasingly strained relationship between China and the United States over the next few years."
Thanks everyone, sorry if I did not get to your question, and apologies for the initial tech issues. One thing I did not see mentioned is Taiwan. I think Taiwan is going to become an even friction point in the near future, between the upcoming elections, and the fact that Tsai has a challenger inside the DPP, as well as possible US moves.
if you get the chance: what do you think about the near- and long-term future of Taiwan as a nation-state and/or as a Chinese province (or something in between)? Will America be able to guard the status quo? Would Taiwanese necessarily even want American support for the status quo when presented with continuing inducements from Beijing? What is the likelihood of a Chinese invasion? Since the CCP would almost certainly fight to the death for Taiwan, is the Trump administration (and future administrations) prepared for an endless war to defend Taiwan?
Just an FYI this thread spammed my email address after replying to it
Sorry we are going to fix that
Very good thing to do, Bill.
Hi Bill, we're one and a half year into Trump's maximum pressure campaign against China, how much do you think it has weakend Xi, if it has? Thanks
i think it has strengthened xi. given everything trump is doing globally it is really hard to make a cogent argument that xi screwed up the trade talks, unless you think he should have just rolled over. in fact, xi can say this guy is impossible to deal with and he has shown us clearly what many of us believed anyway, that us is out to keep us down, and so the only way to push back on the us it be more unified and unified around a strong leader with a strong military
yes, that's a great point. But I also hear that managing the relationship with the us is one of the key deliverables xi is judged on, and some say that he has unnecessairly overexposed china. one might argue that being less aggressive on some issues (South China Sea, B&R), china wouldn't be facing the kind of bypartisan antagonism it is now facing in the us
What do you think the greatest challenges are in EU-China trade today?
Bill, what percent of the people you interact with on China would you estimate actually understand that China's banking system is a fractional reserve system as exists in the West, ie the banks are literally creating money each time they make loans? And all public disclosure of any non-performing loans have to be pre-approved by the Party -- down to the individual loan level?
What do you think the biggest challenge is in Europe-China trade relations today?
Hi Bill, we're one and a half year into this maximum pressure campaign by the US, how much do you think it has weakened Xi Jinping, if it has?
Bill, what percent of the people you interact with on China would you estimate actually understand that China's banking system is a fractional reserve system as exists in the West, ie the banks are literally creating money each time they make loans? And all public disclosure of any non-performing loans have to be pre-approved by the Party -- down to the individual loan level?
How far do you think the White House would go in this trade war? It looks it is always we strikes first and they fight back.
When will you go on Joe Rogan podcast?
+1!!
Will the Chinese continue to import oil from Iran, and in doing so, what is the cost to them for thumbing their noses at US dictum?
With all the illegal practices China hasbbeen involced wouldn't mske sense to request the UN to setup an investigative committe with powers of slapping sanctions and heavy monetary "tickets" if not even prosecute them legally. Someone has to make them accountable or they will continue yo operate thinking they are above the law. Dont forget there are billoons of them!
Thank you for your reply.
Bodhi from Brooklyn NY
How do you think the Chinese leadership is assessing the 2020 elections and the impact of various outcomes?
There were moments of spiking nationalist sentiment in the past, such as 1999 (embassy bombing), 2001 (Hainan crash) and 2012 (Senkaku/Diaoyu). How do you compare what's going on now to those moments?
i think we are creeping up towards those levels, and the propaganda shift in the last several weeks is a sign of that.
Rare earths are incredibly intertwined with at least all electronics manufacturing. It is difficult for China to cut off the west, but they could leverage their rare earth position to capture a greater share of the value chain. Does Trump have amyone who understands this?
i believe people in the pentagon do, and they have been aware of this issue fir a while. awareness though may not have led to good enough preparation
Makes sense they would. No rare earths, no F-16s, no Humvees, or even the machine tools to make them. No rare earths, no modern electric motors.
Thank you, this is great!
Do you see the tension with China is a conflict of civilization?
i think china see the conflict with the us as one
How about us? Do you think most people here see it this way?
Thoughts on the recent Chinese rebuff in Sri Lanka's Colombo port?
Sorry about this. Hit the “mute this thread” button in the email and they’ll stop
Bill, can you disable sending email to users for each comment?
i will ask, that is annoying. sorry
There have been moments of spiking nationalist sentiment in the past, such as 1999 (embassy bombing), 2001 (Hainan crash), and 2012 (Senkaku/Diaoyu). How do you compare what we are seeing now to those moments?
What do you think will be the most obvious and the most effective way(s) in which China will be trying to affect the outcome in the coming Taiwan presidential elections?
Will the Chinese continue to import oil from Iran? And if so, is this not a very clear crossing of a "red line?"
What is the likelihood or the possibility of this trade war triggering an actual physical confrontation. We saw that Kennedy and Kruschev almost lost control of their own military during the Cuban missile crisis. At one point they both felt like they were losing control of the situation.
I'm sure you've got quite a lot of questions to respond to here, so I just wanted to thank you for taking the time to hold this kind of forum. I hope this weekly thread becomes a regular Friday ritual for me to read through and and post in.
How can we help curb the utter ignorance and animosity of people in the U.S. towards China (including the Washington DC elite)?
Is this trade war real in terms of the long term social and political impact on China? Isn't it in the party's long term legitimacy to get any deal with the U.S. than a no deal on trade?