Hey everybody, I thought we'd try something new: a Friday open thread. Any topic is fair game but please keep it respectful. I'l be here for the next half hour at least.
Thanks everyone, sorry if I did not get to your question, and apologies for the initial tech issues. One thing I did not see mentioned is Taiwan. I think Taiwan is going to become an even friction point in the near future, between the upcoming elections, and the fact that Tsai has a challenger inside the DPP, as well as possible US moves.
In your opinion, is the current level of resentment towards the US (products, people, etc.) by Chinese citizens currently at it's most negative in the modern era?
I'm sure you've got quite a lot of questions to respond to here, so I just wanted to thank you for taking the time to hold this kind of forum. I hope this weekly thread becomes a regular Friday ritual for me to read through and and post in.
Hi. China's establishment of an "entities list" seems childish. Like the old playground taunt "I'm rubber, you're glue..." I'm starting to think Xi Jinping is really just not very good at his job. Your thoughts?
A number of retailers (e.g., Dollar Tree, Bed Bath & Beyond) are hinting at real pain coming soon in light of imposed tranche 3 and coming tranche 4 tariffs. J.P.Morgan analysts predict that Dick's Sporting Goods' total tariff exposure will jump from 5% of inventory to 38% upon the imposition of tranche 4 tariffs. As you know, the retail space is already in bad shape -- globally. Do you get any sense from your contacts that the Trump Administration is even remotely factoring in the potential cascading effects of new tariffs (in terms of store closures, job loss, consumer confidence, etc.)?
What books do you recommend for those trying to better understand Chinese American relations? Or to better understand the Chinese political system for those relatively unfamiliar?
What is the likelihood or the possibility of this trade war triggering an actual physical confrontation. We saw that Kennedy and Kruschev almost lost control of their own military during the Cuban missile crisis. At one point they both felt like they were losing control of the situation.
Hi Bill! Thanks for organizing this. I have a personal question: Do you think it's safe for a chinese national who works for a human rights organization in the US to visit China in current political climate?
For the trade negotiations to succeed, Trump needs to throw Xi a bone -- some issue on which Xi can declare victory to his public. What could Trump realistically offer that Xi might accept?
Mr. Bishop, What do you think is required to have the WTO negotiate and enforce a fair and competitive trading environment between the U.S. and China? I know this gets into sovereignty issues with both sides.
Is there anything interesting going on between Jack Ma and the govt? There have been claims from dissidents that Jack has had his travel controlled, forced to step down from BABA, etc.
Here's one for you, from a discussion among some China folks yesterday: what are some likely worst-case actions we could see from Beijing if the US-China trade relationship goes into a nosedive? They just issued the ureliable foreigners list. What would be 10 things folks might/could expect (and should think about hedging against) along a similar vein in increasing severity?
Do you think further urbanization and agricultural automation can offset an ageing workforce and soon-to-be declining population in terms of continued growth?
I started Chinese language at college in 1972. I got my BA in Chinese, and then worked in Taiwan for 10 years and China 15 years. Fortunately when I went to Taiwan in 1973-1977, China was closed due to the Cultural Revolution, so I spent my first decade plus in Taiwan, a really great country. My Chinese was also extremely useful in Burma, Thailand, Pakistan and Greece. I encourage all young students to start early.
Ask me anything chat at 12PM EST today
Thanks everyone, will do this again soon. have a good weekend
apologies, system is overloaded, probably should have limited the size of the first test, working on it
Do you think there's a realistic way forward in the current trade negotiations?
Thanks everyone, sorry if I did not get to your question, and apologies for the initial tech issues. One thing I did not see mentioned is Taiwan. I think Taiwan is going to become an even friction point in the near future, between the upcoming elections, and the fact that Tsai has a challenger inside the DPP, as well as possible US moves.
How serious are the implications of the "don't say I didn't warn you" rhetoric from China? Is that an obvious escalation of the trade war?
What do you think of the alibaba dual listing rumor
What do the Chinese view as the realistic nuclear respond to tariff escalation? CNY breaking 7? 2017 Lotte Group-like actions? Thanks
Two questions: what are the cards-besides rare-earths and the US companies working in China- China holds in the current conflict?
Second question: do you think there will be European contries, besides Italy hat will sign silk-road related agreements? Thank Bill
How will the US-China trade war end?
Dear Bill,
Right into it, US-China:
1. How does it get better from here?
2. How does it get worse from here?
3. What has surprised you the most, thus far?
Thanks so much for doing this!
Ryan
In your opinion, is the current level of resentment towards the US (products, people, etc.) by Chinese citizens currently at it's most negative in the modern era?
I am late to the party. So glad that you will be doing this again. Thank you so much Beale for your expertise and more than that, sharing it with us.
i like this idea!
I'm sure you've got quite a lot of questions to respond to here, so I just wanted to thank you for taking the time to hold this kind of forum. I hope this weekly thread becomes a regular Friday ritual for me to read through and and post in.
Hi. China's establishment of an "entities list" seems childish. Like the old playground taunt "I'm rubber, you're glue..." I'm starting to think Xi Jinping is really just not very good at his job. Your thoughts?
Any tips for coping with in-laws and relentless xidada weichat videos?
A number of retailers (e.g., Dollar Tree, Bed Bath & Beyond) are hinting at real pain coming soon in light of imposed tranche 3 and coming tranche 4 tariffs. J.P.Morgan analysts predict that Dick's Sporting Goods' total tariff exposure will jump from 5% of inventory to 38% upon the imposition of tranche 4 tariffs. As you know, the retail space is already in bad shape -- globally. Do you get any sense from your contacts that the Trump Administration is even remotely factoring in the potential cascading effects of new tariffs (in terms of store closures, job loss, consumer confidence, etc.)?
What is your take on the impact of domestic interest groups potentially leading to the downfall of the Belt and Road Initiative, or at least making it relatively unsuccessful in its geopolitical goals? Tanner Greer has written about this here: http://scholars-stage.blogspot.com/2019/05/the-utterly-dysfunctional-belt-and-road.html
What books do you recommend for those trying to better understand Chinese American relations? Or to better understand the Chinese political system for those relatively unfamiliar?
When will you go on Joe Rogan podcast?
Cannot think of a more vital time for your insights, Bill. Thanks to Axios for bringing you to light.
Hi! Do you think the Mexico tariff hike means something for the US-China talks?
What are your top 3 book recommendations for novices looking to learn more about contemporary China?
What is the likelihood or the possibility of this trade war triggering an actual physical confrontation. We saw that Kennedy and Kruschev almost lost control of their own military during the Cuban missile crisis. At one point they both felt like they were losing control of the situation.
Hi Bill! Thanks for organizing this. I have a personal question: Do you think it's safe for a chinese national who works for a human rights organization in the US to visit China in current political climate?
What could the US realistically do to change Chinese policy in Xinjiang?
Do you think we have reached a point where US travelers to China are at risk of harassment/worse?
What do we know about MOFCOM’s unreliable entities list?
Great idea, a little more advance notice probably works better, at least for me.
Hi Bill, we're one and a half year into Trump's maximum pressure campaign against China, how much do you think it has weakend Xi, if it has? Thanks
What do you think the greatest challenges are in EU-China trade today?
How far do you think the White House would go in this trade war? It looks it is always we strikes first and they fight back.
Do you see the tension with China is a conflict of civilization?
How much leverage does China have over Iran? Would Iran really close the Strait of Hormuz when China is such a huge customer?
For the trade negotiations to succeed, Trump needs to throw Xi a bone -- some issue on which Xi can declare victory to his public. What could Trump realistically offer that Xi might accept?
Love this way. However, there are too many questions all at once. Can Bill set up a few topics for each round of conversation?
What does the worst case scenario look like to you, re trade war?
Mr. Bishop, What do you think is required to have the WTO negotiate and enforce a fair and competitive trading environment between the U.S. and China? I know this gets into sovereignty issues with both sides.
What's your favourite film?
Do you foresee the issue of Uyghur persecution ever becoming an issue in foreign relations between US and China or China and the UN?
Ultimately, who has the upper hand in this trade war? The US or China?
Are you able to catch up to these questions in 30 minutes? :) :)
Is there anything interesting going on between Jack Ma and the govt? There have been claims from dissidents that Jack has had his travel controlled, forced to step down from BABA, etc.
Here's one for you, from a discussion among some China folks yesterday: what are some likely worst-case actions we could see from Beijing if the US-China trade relationship goes into a nosedive? They just issued the ureliable foreigners list. What would be 10 things folks might/could expect (and should think about hedging against) along a similar vein in increasing severity?
Do you think further urbanization and agricultural automation can offset an ageing workforce and soon-to-be declining population in terms of continued growth?
Can good relationship with China be of national security value to a small nato member eastern european country?
Any public companies in China you would invest in?
Thanks! Great format! What's the difference btw a guiding opinion 指导意见, an ordinary opinion 意见 and several opinions 若干意见? which is more authoritative?
I started Chinese language at college in 1972. I got my BA in Chinese, and then worked in Taiwan for 10 years and China 15 years. Fortunately when I went to Taiwan in 1973-1977, China was closed due to the Cultural Revolution, so I spent my first decade plus in Taiwan, a really great country. My Chinese was also extremely useful in Burma, Thailand, Pakistan and Greece. I encourage all young students to start early.
Got to this a little late, but thoroughly enjoyed reading the thread. Great idea.