The bigger reason for the Trump Administration shift on China may be rare earth magnets, and this quote from the Financial Times’ Trump blocks Taiwan’s President Lai from New York stopover may be the massive leverage Xi has created with rare earths:In addition to concerns about derailing a summit, some officials say the US needs to “hide and bide” with respect to China. The phrase — which was used by China’s former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping — is being invoked to explain that the rare earths leverage China has created over the US limits Washington’s ability to take tough actions against Beijing.Some Trump defenders are using this quote to argue Trump has no choice but to soften the US stance towards China. But if that is the case then he was really poorly served by Treasury Secretary Bessent, Commerce Secretary Lutnick et al because they should not have been surprised that China had built up this leverage. Instead they went full bore ahead with bad information (remember Bessent saying China is playing with a pair of twos?) and a weaker hand than they realized and ended up making Trump look weak, while giving Xi a win he can tout domestically and to the rest of the world, as the leader who stood up to Trump and the US.
For those of you that have never heard of factoring, this is the business equivilent of a pawn shop. When companies are in great trouble and can't get cash to operate they turn to factoring. If this is in wide use in China it's a sign that more companies are closing in on bankruptcy. What you do is say you are owed 1000 by your debtors you take this obligation to a factoring company and they give you say 800 so you can continue to operate and the factoring company takes on the collection risk. Problem is if your margins are not very big to begin with (typical in China) than taking 800 for a 1000 obligation is really not going to be sustainable.
For those of you that have never heard of factoring, this is the business equivilent of a pawn shop. When companies are in great trouble and can't get cash to operate they turn to factoring. If this is in wide use in China it's a sign that more companies are closing in on bankruptcy. What you do is say you are owed 1000 by your debtors you take this obligation to a factoring company and they give you say 800 so you can continue to operate and the factoring company takes on the collection risk. Problem is if your margins are not very big to begin with (typical in China) than taking 800 for a 1000 obligation is really not going to be sustainable.