Hi everyone, I want to try to have another open discussion today, but I am hoping you all can talk amongst yourselves and not just ask me questions. I will be lurking and may jump in but collectively you all know so much more about China. Please be polite and respectful. Thanks, Bill
Open thread good idea, like Lunyu. I add (with his permission) a letter that Daniel Rossner sent Nicholas Krisrtof re: coronavirus:
Dear Mr. Kristof- After the many articles critical of China for its handling of the coronavirus situation, is it too much to ask for just one listing the organizations to which readers can donate to assist in the Chinese relief efforts? The lack of any so far in the Times is beginning to make me wonder whether the true objective is to promote a political narrative rather than true humanitarian concern for the victims, although I will take that all back if you or someone else at the Times does publish a list. One US organization I have noticed which is assisting is Direct Relief, information here:
I see some weird pattern in the data on cured patients, because I noticed that in Beijing-Haidian there isn’t any patient healed so far, while in other provinces or city like Chongqing the healing rate seems higher than in the capital....I wonder if they are adopting the same standards to release patients
News:According to JB Press, a right wing media group in Japan, 5 people have died of the virus in the DPRK and been secretly cremated. In South Korea one super spreader is said to have infected 153 people, mostly through his church.
Would certainly like to participate in an open thread. Hands on experience with totalitarian regimes in PRC - but dated (Korean War vet; taught at Bei Da, Guangdong, Zhenjiang and Qingdao universities; 1960's resident HK and Taipeh.) Feel I have grip on the Chinese mentality - but only a Chinese speaking foreigner.
The great concern everyone has is what happens when it reaches places where significant portions of the population have no healthcare and the country has no ability to create relatively solid quarantines. It is not talked about much but there are partial analogs in China in the rural villages (mostly in Hubei) between Wuhan and Zhengzhou.
Use a browser with automatic translation to English if you do not read Mandarin. The images can be translated in the Google or Microsoft translation tools.
Since this is an open discussion, anyone have experiencing switching from pure STEM to something involving foreign affairs as well? I'm about to graduate with a master's, and it's been on my mind. Obviously there's defense, but I'm curious what others may have done.
How ready is the world ex China in fighting the virus? There r signs that even small leakage (inevitable) from China can create full blown crisis elsewhere due to lack of preparedness and structural/ administrative/legal tools . What r the odds we end up in a scenario where China got it under control but the crisis gets full blown ugly somewhere else and out of control?
I'd love some feedback, as well as evidence for or against, my post about how Chinese spin doctors pose as westerners sympathetic to the CCP on online article comment boards. I've been accused of many things in life, but conspiracy theorist is not one of them. Any thoughts?
Only recently arrived in Vietnam, after 7 years in China, I know very little at this stage of situation on the ground and reluctant to commentate at this juncture...
Don't know if this discussion is still ongoing, but I wonder if any of the basic scientific questions about the virus (how many infected, how it's transmitted, etc.) can be definitely answered without allowing global experts in? Given the focus on getting the economy back up, is there any incentive to allow scientists to find the answers, and without those answers, can the virus -- and knock-on economic impacts -- ever be contained?
Bill, The East and West have dramatically different views of world history. Chinese students learn about the devious Opium Wars, the Boxer Rebellion and a variety of other despicable affairs . The West views itself as enlightened. We bury or ignore issues such as the ravages of colonization, slavery and taking of land, willy-nilly. I am glad to be an American and enjoy our relative freedom, democracy and quasi capitalism.
The only way out of this mess we have, between East and West, involves humility, and focusing on the future. The West has much to learn form the East. Similarly the East needs to learn that citizens much have a voice in running their country. Thank you for all of your efforts. John
Bill, this is a general question to everyone on this blog. Why has patient 'Zero' not been identified? In any epidemic/pandemic the most critical identification point is patient 'Zero'. Given the ubiquitous nature of Chinas citizen surveillance and information gathering it is quite surprising that this person has not been identified yet.
One theory is that the virus had been kicking around since October and hidden amongst the flu cases until the Wuhan doctors noticed something different in December. It's even been suggested that the virus was brought to Wuhan markets rather than originating there. If true patient zero may be long gone or blissfully unaware that they even had the virus.
Let's not forget that in 2018, then National Security Advisor John Bolton dismantled the National Security Council’s (NSC) global health security and biodefense directorate for global health and biodefense, folding its staff into the directorate for weapons of mass destruction and biodefense. Yeah, the directorate for weapons of mass destruction and biodefense. Just weird coincidence?
No wonder Xi issued instructions about front line medical workers, it looks like the infection rats fo them are very high. "A 29-year-old doctor in Wuhan has become the latest victim of the coronavirus as China reported infections in prisons in three provinces, as well as clusters in Beijing.
While it seems a number of articles lately have turned to economic concerns and the difficulty of getting the Chinese economy back up and running, I find it interesting that there has been little written about the global cost.
Tourism to Asia and from Asia generally, will likely be down worldwide as will business travel. On the assumption that, for example, the US airlines which have now suspended service to China and Hong Kong had been running profitable routes there with the suspension now lack that profit component.
In short, somewhat akin to 2008 when the US financial sector gifted the world with a financial meltdown, China, through poor management of the coronavirus has now gifted the world, not just China, with some degree of economic slowdown.
Actually, I see a lot of fragmentary reports of economic disruption and financial loss. It's not just US airlines that have suspended flights, of course, and many of them are smaller, financially weaker companies. Even at this very early stage, it seems clear that there will be substantial damage and that it might continue for some time. If infections continue to spread and confusion persists as to how the virus is spread and how best to treat it, the psychological damage could escalate. Fear of travel, large gatherings and even casual human contact could become as big a threat as the virus iteslf.
This is a sad time for all East and Southeast Asian people. My Chinese friends and colleagues are fearful for their families.
The Hong Kong protests has may dystopian dimensions. The Coronavirus actually is a clear distinction between Hong Kong and PRC. The virus is spreading exponentially in PRC. While Hong Kong has been relatively successful in containing the virus. While both are Chinese there is a true distinction between cultures and governance. Cantonese people know that they have the better of both. Again it's just my ppiniom that the Cantonese expect a poverty of hope and spirit as PRC exerts more authority, eroding the microcosm that is Hong Kong.
Since returning to the US on Monday in what is not really a voluntary self-quarantine (they would seek a court order if I was not willing to hole up till March 2), I have started to blog again for the first time in years. I am concerned with the response of the Dept of State and have thus written the attached letter: http://www.waking-green-dragon.com/2020/02/re-emergency-alert-novel-coronavirus.html. I think CDC has done admirably; don't have enough information about Dept. of Homeland Security to opine. Without getting into whether the Oceania-American response has amounted to economic warfare, I am interested in how other returning expats have gotten information about what they have to do upon return. I reluctantly gave my parents' phone number to the CDC at passport control and asked that they not call it unless there was an emergency. Having called CDC who punted to NY Dept of Health, I called NY Dept. of Health from China and was not told that two county health department nurses would be showing up by them at that time or by the CDC worker in the airport.
NB Please refer to this as COVID-19 as there could well be another coronavirus this season. This one may be a mere coyote; the next one, a wolf.
I recall, from my years of living in China, waiting in the doctor's office only to have the doctor come in, gloves on, smoking a cigarette. That wasn't an isolated event but close to the norm. I had a friend from, doctor from University of Michigan, do a rotation through a hospital in Chengdu and she said she witnessed much the same. With that in mind, I cringe at the idea of glorified, poorly trained 保安 going door to door to do temperature checks. I imagine the mandatory house checks were/are great vectors for the spread of the virus.
We cannot draw general conclusions about the spread of the virus. The quarantines are without question, slowing transmission. But will they stop it’s spread. Epidemiological effects of quarantine can be significant in the short term and still not be successful. With SARS and MERS they were able to drive the R0 factor below 1 and the virus died out. Long term issues are simply not defined yet. Is there an animal host that will act as an inter-seasonal reservoir for the disease? Are disease spread vectors able to be controlled without quarantine? Will this virus exhibit natural seasonality? Is the incubation period often longer that 14 days? Is there significant viral shedding in the asymptomatic period? How many victims are asymptomatic? Airborne droplets seem to be one vector but fecal matter transmission is increasingly suspect as a major cause, is this true? Are there age related or genetic aspects of susceptibility. How fast will this virus mutate creating issues with whether a vaccine can be developed? What happens as the virus spreads to areas of the world with no medical care? Will treatment protocols be developed that can enhance survival? Well effective means of slowing spread or disinfection be developed? What level of immunity is developed by survivors, if any? The data on ALL these factors is preliminary and limited at this stage. Even allowing for the late reaction in Wuhan, the epidemic has moved extremely fast and the data being gathered is fractured at best. Our tests are inaccurate, so far, political will and processes affect reporting, lack of comprehensive tracking systems and, so on. These directly affect the validity of almost all conclusions about what is happening.
Can you imagine what will happen to our cultures/economies if people from different countries are forced to go through a 24 or 40 day quarantine, perhaps in both directions to conduct business, attend university or go to conferences? If it is determined to be unsafe to go to restaurants, ever? If concerts, entertainment venues and movie theaters simply cease to exist? If logistics workers refuse to enter epidemic hot zones?
I've been operating along Bill's advice of watch what they do, not what they say. It seems that the virus mortality rate is rather low outside of China...but the Party seems to be on war footing. Is there any reason to be optimistic right now?
I read somewhere that the CCP doesn't allow citizens to turn off their phones, for tracking purposes. Now I can't find a citation. Any suggestions? Am I remembering wrong?
I think there are ways to remotely activate and track powered off phones. That’s why security conscious folks prefer models with removable batteries. Even if this isn’t the default it has been demonstrated on many phones and iot devices.
What you are thinking of is the requirement that people surrender their phones for inspection by authorities at any time, which is actually the law. This includes passwords for social media accounts and things of that nature.
If the Chinese authorities want to track you they have many options.
What are people hearing on the ground from manufacturers connected supply chains about how when their current inventory will run out? I am hearing a lot of "April's"
One thing I find very interesting is the disdain many Chinese intellectuals seem to have for the Leader's intelligence. Many call him stupid, or low class. I heard this before the current crisis. Two of those speaking out about him in the current crisis have called him "not very smart." I'm curious about this for two reasons: first, it is completely the opposite of the image we have of him in the west. Secondly, are they emboldened to speak out now because they believe that the crisis has revealed the emperor's new clothes and believe it self-evident that he must step down. Or is this arrogance on their part and perhaps he is widely considered to be intelligent by the rest of Chinese society. Any comments on this from those more connected to China then myself?
Xi does rely on fairly strong support from the common people who like his anti-corruption campaign and public image he portrays (family man, takes care of his mother, etc). You could kind of consider him a populist which tends to invite disdain from the intellectuals. He has also smashed alot of rival cliques which seems to have bred resentment among the elites (understandably).
One of the most unfortunate aspects of the contemporary Chinese "resistance" is that it is packed with snobs. While upper middle class folk can read these essays and look past the posturing to get to the deeper message, i think it might alienate working class people.
Belittling the intelligence of Xi on informal settings in China is like intellectuals here criticizing DT, it is almost a cliche to show that you are in the intellectuals class. It used to be ok for popular professors to express that sentiment even in classes. This has been prohibited and punished to the extend that no one (except a few like Xu Zhangrun) dares to say it outside of their trusted circle. I knew an incidence where an associate professor was fired not because he criticized China, but simply because he praised the US system in class. He was reported by student informer(s) assigned by CCP organizers on campus.
But do they really believe it? What comes through in Xu's essay is the idea of the technocratic class being stymied by the entitled people at the top of the system. Xi is depicted as the personification of this. Wouldn't it be more than posturing if many intellectuals thought that the rot went much further than the leader, that he was merely symptomatic of the problem? In other words, the current crisis is confirmation that the system is inherently flawed because of this generation of leaders inherited power -- a sentiment that Xi has no doubt spent much of his time trying to prove wrong. Intellectuals would see his posturing as whistling past the graveyard (I'm reminded of the big parade in the Fall when one friend said something like, only people who are really afraid make that much noise).
Bill and others, at what point will the China Government give up trying to contain the virus? What are the factors to look at? Economic impact? Fatality rates? Confirmed cases exceeding 100k? Spread internationally?
Does anyone has more information on the mayor of Wuhan, Zhou Xianwang beyond wikipedia and even more specialist sources. I think he is interesting because he is basically a nobody – even he courages TV apparent, where he admitted 'everything' – but he still isn't kicked out. Those leaving me only to guess that he got some connection, or is there a better explanation?
I think a big question around the coronavirus is the magnitude and duration of the impact on US corporate performance, notwithstanding the bigger question of impact on human life. The Chinese government expects to have the virus under control by April, I believe, but the full extent of the impact of an economic halt won't be quantified until Q2 2020 earnings (approx. August/September 2020).
Simply stated: What are the key leading indicators to look for to best understand the impact on economic performance? Is there a set of criteria that let's you differentiate between Worst Case / Base Case / "This-wasn't-that-bad" Case?
Since a good deal of business interaction still entails an element of in-bound business trips (I say inbound because in my limited experience it was mostly people traveling to Beijing, not Chinese traveling abroad), doesn't the 14-day-quarantine policy in major cities for incoming travelers present a thoroughly chilling effect on cross-border business at this stage, beyond just the regular virus fears?
Current guidance seems to be that for those coming from out of China the 14 day quarantine doesn’t apply (eg. See FCO guidance and quarantine in cities in shanghai). However the impact on business trips is going to be meaningful - significantly fewer airlines flying for at least another month or two, and the appeal of physically going to China to discuss a business deal has to be low right now.
I've been surprised at how little I've seen in western news about Wang Yanyi. How does a 38-year-old, relatively unremarkable lecturer from the University of Wuhan become head of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in such a short time? Surely it's worth interviewing a few of the French scientists who helped set up the Wuhan lab, or some of Wang's advisors from the University of Colorado, to see if there might be anything untoward about her rapid rise? Does anyone know of any serious journalists who have looked into the backgrounds of the officials at the Institute of Virology?
Yeah there are some sites like zerohedge which are looking into these questions. It’s hard to say for sure but if you are familiar with how these types of things are usually handled there you can guess the general outlines. In a country with free press this stuff might be worth looking into but in China you are probably going to find a lot of nothing as the people involved simply disappear.
Since this is a hotbed of Sinocism, I wanted to ask. What's the endgame for China, from the Chinese leadership POV?
What does taking their rightful place in the world look like? Or washing away the century of humiliation?
My impression - but I've been told this is just me regurgitating western propaganda - is that they want to exercise heavy control over their neighborhood.
The USA may be far from perfect in their foreign policy choices but I trust them to implement freedom of the seas and follow international laws in the Pacific far more than I would the Chinese. Similarly, I disagree with the IMF/Washington consensus way of handling economic crises but I don't see Vietnam or Indonesia fairing better under Chinese tutelage than under the established world order.
So my question is this - does China just want to throw his weight around, to feel big by bullying people around (like Russia under Putin) or do they have something else in mind? and if so, what?
Well, communism, even with “Chinese characteristics”, is fundamentally Godless - elevating the state, the party, and thus its head the dictator to full power. There are no checks and balances to power like you have in American Democracy. “Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely”, as the Puritan founders of America would say. Communist China is fundamentally not to be trusted in the same way that the Soviet Union could not be. They just play a little smarter game of deception and disinformation than the Soviets.
The greatness of the American system in generously protecting freedoms and equality and rule of law, in for example enabling a free Pacific region these many years, has flowed from Judeo-Christian faith and ideals. This correct worldview also instructs us to understand that evil is an ever present reality about which we must constantly be on the alert.
We must robustly defend these principles on which freedom rests as we are in a propaganda war with what is a great repository of evil.
doubt anyone knows, even Xi , then again, it's probably historical revisionism to say that FDR and Truman in 1941 knew what the end game of the US even 4 years later would be like.
Sure. In 1941, FDR and Truman had other concerns than thinking about the American Century. By 1946? I doubt they hadn't given it some thoughts...
But even the implied comparison between the Axis then/the USA now vs. the Allies then/China now seems wrong. We're not at war. We're not locked into a fight to the death where there can only be one winner. It's not clear to me why China is so bothered by Americans having a presence in their neck of the woods. Americans aren't exactly extracting wealth at gunpoint from the regional players. And, as I said, objectively, when did the US ever used its military power to lock Chinese seas?
I get that Taiwan is a sore point but is a tiny island of no consequence really worth spending several trillions of dollars on military hardware over decades in the hope of being able to conquer it eventually?
If China was investing that cash in becoming an attractive, free economic and intellectual powerhouse, maybe Taiwan would join the mainland willingly?
I have a comment on Jimmy Lai's WSJ OpEd that was mentioned in yesterday's newsletter.
To my understanding, what that piece essentially says is that the Western way of life is bound to happen in human society because there is "trust". On the other hand, for a system that has no "trust" like the CCP, it must eventually collapse.
I believe this kind of propaganda is unhelpful and dangerous to democracy and freedom in the face of authoritarians such as the CCP. People have now seen how the CCP exploited and corrupted the trust-based Western system in the past 20 years, and without an effective engagement policy (which this kind of propaganda has exactly provided an excuse not to have one), its authoritarian grip and overseas influence will only become stronger.
I think a top priority for those in charge of China policies in the West is to be realistic and think in terms of actual power (hard and soft) when it comes to engagement with China. Propaganda like the one above no longer "clicks" with many youths in China, and believe me, they prefer reading the Global Times.
I don’t really think that Mr. Lai’s opinion is propaganda. He lives in a place that values free speech and he uses that freedom to express his opinion. Unlike the Global Times, his opinions, though perhaps biased and misleading, are not portrayed as facts nor is there any expectation that they will be taken at face value. His voice is one in a great milieu of ideas regarding China being discussed in the free press.
Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I agree that it is people's right to express their views--even intolerant views--in a place where freedom of expression is valued. Yet from the anger in relation to the death of Dr. Li Wenliang, it is also clear that many people in China today value free speech, but other than this one incident, they still cannot have that right. Why? Because I think there is something that makes people's rights possible in the first place, and what I am suggesting here is that those who are enjoying their rights should not take them for granted, and they should be aware of that something and try to make it more secure.
Yes from what I saw on Weibo and Wechat in JAN-FEB there was some push among Chinese people for free speech as it relates to the Dr. Li situation. Of course it was suppressed rather quickly by censors, but I think the fact that they had reframed free speech as a public health issue rather than an explicitly political one is an interesting evolution. Sometimes in China progress cannot be made until an issue is reframed properly to avoid “sensitive” areas. Pollution is another one that comes to mind, it can be discussed rather openly as a problem as long as that does not veer into criticism of the party.
That aside, I do agree with your point that people should exercise their right to free speech responsibly and with a good understanding of their potential audience.
Bill, do you know of any effort to help Chinese students and scholars who are already in the US, to wake up and walk out of the mental prison impinged by decades of CCP indoctrination education (brain washing)?
Good day. Curious to hear thoughts on impact of Coronavirus on Chinese agricultural imports and crop production, particularly in light of Phase 1.
From Moss Roberts, NYU:
Open thread good idea, like Lunyu. I add (with his permission) a letter that Daniel Rossner sent Nicholas Krisrtof re: coronavirus:
Dear Mr. Kristof- After the many articles critical of China for its handling of the coronavirus situation, is it too much to ask for just one listing the organizations to which readers can donate to assist in the Chinese relief efforts? The lack of any so far in the Times is beginning to make me wonder whether the true objective is to promote a political narrative rather than true humanitarian concern for the victims, although I will take that all back if you or someone else at the Times does publish a list. One US organization I have noticed which is assisting is Direct Relief, information here:
https://www.directrelief.org/2020/02/latest-coronavirus-response-shipment-of-protective-gear-bound-for-hospitals-in-china/
although I am sure there are many others that the Times could vet and make readers aware of. --Daniel Rossner
I see some weird pattern in the data on cured patients, because I noticed that in Beijing-Haidian there isn’t any patient healed so far, while in other provinces or city like Chongqing the healing rate seems higher than in the capital....I wonder if they are adopting the same standards to release patients
You should, please! Reliable informations are necessary and important! Thank you! Sources and fakes should be shown... gerd
Love Chinese food and stores in Rockville, MD.
News:According to JB Press, a right wing media group in Japan, 5 people have died of the virus in the DPRK and been secretly cremated. In South Korea one super spreader is said to have infected 153 people, mostly through his church.
Yes. Very useful. Lived in China for 8 years. Back a couple of years now. The collective wisdom / insights is quite good. Thank you
This is such a valuable opportunity and thank you for the podcast recommendation also. I am thrilled to be a part of the discussion.
Would certainly like to participate in an open thread. Hands on experience with totalitarian regimes in PRC - but dated (Korean War vet; taught at Bei Da, Guangdong, Zhenjiang and Qingdao universities; 1960's resident HK and Taipeh.) Feel I have grip on the Chinese mentality - but only a Chinese speaking foreigner.
The great concern everyone has is what happens when it reaches places where significant portions of the population have no healthcare and the country has no ability to create relatively solid quarantines. It is not talked about much but there are partial analogs in China in the rural villages (mostly in Hubei) between Wuhan and Zhengzhou.
If you are trying to understand the evolving public facing data and opinions on the COVID-19 epidemic you should refer to: https://ncov.dxy.cn
Use a browser with automatic translation to English if you do not read Mandarin. The images can be translated in the Google or Microsoft translation tools.
Since this is an open discussion, anyone have experiencing switching from pure STEM to something involving foreign affairs as well? I'm about to graduate with a master's, and it's been on my mind. Obviously there's defense, but I'm curious what others may have done.
In the DMV area if it makes a difference.
How ready is the world ex China in fighting the virus? There r signs that even small leakage (inevitable) from China can create full blown crisis elsewhere due to lack of preparedness and structural/ administrative/legal tools . What r the odds we end up in a scenario where China got it under control but the crisis gets full blown ugly somewhere else and out of control?
I'd love some feedback, as well as evidence for or against, my post about how Chinese spin doctors pose as westerners sympathetic to the CCP on online article comment boards. I've been accused of many things in life, but conspiracy theorist is not one of them. Any thoughts?
https://www.seannobmann.com/2020/02/how-china-hijacks-us-comment-boards.html
Only recently arrived in Vietnam, after 7 years in China, I know very little at this stage of situation on the ground and reluctant to commentate at this juncture...
Don't know if this discussion is still ongoing, but I wonder if any of the basic scientific questions about the virus (how many infected, how it's transmitted, etc.) can be definitely answered without allowing global experts in? Given the focus on getting the economy back up, is there any incentive to allow scientists to find the answers, and without those answers, can the virus -- and knock-on economic impacts -- ever be contained?
Global Times: China is planning to build another 19 makeshift hospitals to quarantine more infected patients in Wuhan.
Good job!
Any word on Chris Buckley?
Bill, The East and West have dramatically different views of world history. Chinese students learn about the devious Opium Wars, the Boxer Rebellion and a variety of other despicable affairs . The West views itself as enlightened. We bury or ignore issues such as the ravages of colonization, slavery and taking of land, willy-nilly. I am glad to be an American and enjoy our relative freedom, democracy and quasi capitalism.
The only way out of this mess we have, between East and West, involves humility, and focusing on the future. The West has much to learn form the East. Similarly the East needs to learn that citizens much have a voice in running their country. Thank you for all of your efforts. John
Let’s remember there is Much much more to the East than socialism with Chinese characteristics.
This is a great idea. Given rapidly changing events. I would appreciate it every Friday.
Bill, this is a general question to everyone on this blog. Why has patient 'Zero' not been identified? In any epidemic/pandemic the most critical identification point is patient 'Zero'. Given the ubiquitous nature of Chinas citizen surveillance and information gathering it is quite surprising that this person has not been identified yet.
One theory is that the virus had been kicking around since October and hidden amongst the flu cases until the Wuhan doctors noticed something different in December. It's even been suggested that the virus was brought to Wuhan markets rather than originating there. If true patient zero may be long gone or blissfully unaware that they even had the virus.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/wuhan-seafood-market-may-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally
Careful, you could be accused of being a conspiracy theorist for asking a cogent question like that.
I wish I knew the answer
Let's not forget that in 2018, then National Security Advisor John Bolton dismantled the National Security Council’s (NSC) global health security and biodefense directorate for global health and biodefense, folding its staff into the directorate for weapons of mass destruction and biodefense. Yeah, the directorate for weapons of mass destruction and biodefense. Just weird coincidence?
Sure
No wonder Xi issued instructions about front line medical workers, it looks like the infection rats fo them are very high. "A 29-year-old doctor in Wuhan has become the latest victim of the coronavirus as China reported infections in prisons in three provinces, as well as clusters in Beijing.
Wuhan health authorities said Peng Yinhua, who worked in respiratory and critical care at Jiangxia district’s First People’s Hospital, had contracted the infection while working on the “front line”." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/21/coronavirus-kills-wuhan-doctor-hundreds-infected-china-prisons
The better question is can they stop it spreading
While it seems a number of articles lately have turned to economic concerns and the difficulty of getting the Chinese economy back up and running, I find it interesting that there has been little written about the global cost.
Tourism to Asia and from Asia generally, will likely be down worldwide as will business travel. On the assumption that, for example, the US airlines which have now suspended service to China and Hong Kong had been running profitable routes there with the suspension now lack that profit component.
In short, somewhat akin to 2008 when the US financial sector gifted the world with a financial meltdown, China, through poor management of the coronavirus has now gifted the world, not just China, with some degree of economic slowdown.
Actually, I see a lot of fragmentary reports of economic disruption and financial loss. It's not just US airlines that have suspended flights, of course, and many of them are smaller, financially weaker companies. Even at this very early stage, it seems clear that there will be substantial damage and that it might continue for some time. If infections continue to spread and confusion persists as to how the virus is spread and how best to treat it, the psychological damage could escalate. Fear of travel, large gatherings and even casual human contact could become as big a threat as the virus iteslf.
Some knock-on effects: the gigantic Chinaplas show in Shanghai has been rescheduled from April to August: https://www.chinaplasonline.com/CPS20/idx/eng/home.
good answer!
This is a sad time for all East and Southeast Asian people. My Chinese friends and colleagues are fearful for their families.
The Hong Kong protests has may dystopian dimensions. The Coronavirus actually is a clear distinction between Hong Kong and PRC. The virus is spreading exponentially in PRC. While Hong Kong has been relatively successful in containing the virus. While both are Chinese there is a true distinction between cultures and governance. Cantonese people know that they have the better of both. Again it's just my ppiniom that the Cantonese expect a poverty of hope and spirit as PRC exerts more authority, eroding the microcosm that is Hong Kong.
Since returning to the US on Monday in what is not really a voluntary self-quarantine (they would seek a court order if I was not willing to hole up till March 2), I have started to blog again for the first time in years. I am concerned with the response of the Dept of State and have thus written the attached letter: http://www.waking-green-dragon.com/2020/02/re-emergency-alert-novel-coronavirus.html. I think CDC has done admirably; don't have enough information about Dept. of Homeland Security to opine. Without getting into whether the Oceania-American response has amounted to economic warfare, I am interested in how other returning expats have gotten information about what they have to do upon return. I reluctantly gave my parents' phone number to the CDC at passport control and asked that they not call it unless there was an emergency. Having called CDC who punted to NY Dept of Health, I called NY Dept. of Health from China and was not told that two county health department nurses would be showing up by them at that time or by the CDC worker in the airport.
NB Please refer to this as COVID-19 as there could well be another coronavirus this season. This one may be a mere coyote; the next one, a wolf.
I recall, from my years of living in China, waiting in the doctor's office only to have the doctor come in, gloves on, smoking a cigarette. That wasn't an isolated event but close to the norm. I had a friend from, doctor from University of Michigan, do a rotation through a hospital in Chengdu and she said she witnessed much the same. With that in mind, I cringe at the idea of glorified, poorly trained 保安 going door to door to do temperature checks. I imagine the mandatory house checks were/are great vectors for the spread of the virus.
We cannot draw general conclusions about the spread of the virus. The quarantines are without question, slowing transmission. But will they stop it’s spread. Epidemiological effects of quarantine can be significant in the short term and still not be successful. With SARS and MERS they were able to drive the R0 factor below 1 and the virus died out. Long term issues are simply not defined yet. Is there an animal host that will act as an inter-seasonal reservoir for the disease? Are disease spread vectors able to be controlled without quarantine? Will this virus exhibit natural seasonality? Is the incubation period often longer that 14 days? Is there significant viral shedding in the asymptomatic period? How many victims are asymptomatic? Airborne droplets seem to be one vector but fecal matter transmission is increasingly suspect as a major cause, is this true? Are there age related or genetic aspects of susceptibility. How fast will this virus mutate creating issues with whether a vaccine can be developed? What happens as the virus spreads to areas of the world with no medical care? Will treatment protocols be developed that can enhance survival? Well effective means of slowing spread or disinfection be developed? What level of immunity is developed by survivors, if any? The data on ALL these factors is preliminary and limited at this stage. Even allowing for the late reaction in Wuhan, the epidemic has moved extremely fast and the data being gathered is fractured at best. Our tests are inaccurate, so far, political will and processes affect reporting, lack of comprehensive tracking systems and, so on. These directly affect the validity of almost all conclusions about what is happening.
Can you imagine what will happen to our cultures/economies if people from different countries are forced to go through a 24 or 40 day quarantine, perhaps in both directions to conduct business, attend university or go to conferences? If it is determined to be unsafe to go to restaurants, ever? If concerts, entertainment venues and movie theaters simply cease to exist? If logistics workers refuse to enter epidemic hot zones?
This is no ordinary flue but a virus made in a lab according to our sources
Please continue!
Please do so you on a regular basis
This open discussion is a great idea Bill!!
I've been operating along Bill's advice of watch what they do, not what they say. It seems that the virus mortality rate is rather low outside of China...but the Party seems to be on war footing. Is there any reason to be optimistic right now?
I read somewhere that the CCP doesn't allow citizens to turn off their phones, for tracking purposes. Now I can't find a citation. Any suggestions? Am I remembering wrong?
I'm in China. I don't turn off my phone because I'm trapped in social media addiction 😂
I think there are ways to remotely activate and track powered off phones. That’s why security conscious folks prefer models with removable batteries. Even if this isn’t the default it has been demonstrated on many phones and iot devices.
What you are thinking of is the requirement that people surrender their phones for inspection by authorities at any time, which is actually the law. This includes passwords for social media accounts and things of that nature.
If the Chinese authorities want to track you they have many options.
Sounds false. My students and colleagues (Shanghai) turn off their phones, as well as letting their batteries die.
Thanks for the clarification, it seemed outlandish to me as well.
never heard that, dont think is true
What are people hearing on the ground from manufacturers connected supply chains about how when their current inventory will run out? I am hearing a lot of "April's"
One thing I find very interesting is the disdain many Chinese intellectuals seem to have for the Leader's intelligence. Many call him stupid, or low class. I heard this before the current crisis. Two of those speaking out about him in the current crisis have called him "not very smart." I'm curious about this for two reasons: first, it is completely the opposite of the image we have of him in the west. Secondly, are they emboldened to speak out now because they believe that the crisis has revealed the emperor's new clothes and believe it self-evident that he must step down. Or is this arrogance on their part and perhaps he is widely considered to be intelligent by the rest of Chinese society. Any comments on this from those more connected to China then myself?
Xi does rely on fairly strong support from the common people who like his anti-corruption campaign and public image he portrays (family man, takes care of his mother, etc). You could kind of consider him a populist which tends to invite disdain from the intellectuals. He has also smashed alot of rival cliques which seems to have bred resentment among the elites (understandably).
At least I strongly support him as he is trying so hard for beating corruption and upgrading economy.
One of the most unfortunate aspects of the contemporary Chinese "resistance" is that it is packed with snobs. While upper middle class folk can read these essays and look past the posturing to get to the deeper message, i think it might alienate working class people.
Belittling the intelligence of Xi on informal settings in China is like intellectuals here criticizing DT, it is almost a cliche to show that you are in the intellectuals class. It used to be ok for popular professors to express that sentiment even in classes. This has been prohibited and punished to the extend that no one (except a few like Xu Zhangrun) dares to say it outside of their trusted circle. I knew an incidence where an associate professor was fired not because he criticized China, but simply because he praised the US system in class. He was reported by student informer(s) assigned by CCP organizers on campus.
But do they really believe it? What comes through in Xu's essay is the idea of the technocratic class being stymied by the entitled people at the top of the system. Xi is depicted as the personification of this. Wouldn't it be more than posturing if many intellectuals thought that the rot went much further than the leader, that he was merely symptomatic of the problem? In other words, the current crisis is confirmation that the system is inherently flawed because of this generation of leaders inherited power -- a sentiment that Xi has no doubt spent much of his time trying to prove wrong. Intellectuals would see his posturing as whistling past the graveyard (I'm reminded of the big parade in the Fall when one friend said something like, only people who are really afraid make that much noise).
Bill and others, at what point will the China Government give up trying to contain the virus? What are the factors to look at? Economic impact? Fatality rates? Confirmed cases exceeding 100k? Spread internationally?
Does anyone has more information on the mayor of Wuhan, Zhou Xianwang beyond wikipedia and even more specialist sources. I think he is interesting because he is basically a nobody – even he courages TV apparent, where he admitted 'everything' – but he still isn't kicked out. Those leaving me only to guess that he got some connection, or is there a better explanation?
I think a big question around the coronavirus is the magnitude and duration of the impact on US corporate performance, notwithstanding the bigger question of impact on human life. The Chinese government expects to have the virus under control by April, I believe, but the full extent of the impact of an economic halt won't be quantified until Q2 2020 earnings (approx. August/September 2020).
Simply stated: What are the key leading indicators to look for to best understand the impact on economic performance? Is there a set of criteria that let's you differentiate between Worst Case / Base Case / "This-wasn't-that-bad" Case?
Thank you as always for taking the time
Since a good deal of business interaction still entails an element of in-bound business trips (I say inbound because in my limited experience it was mostly people traveling to Beijing, not Chinese traveling abroad), doesn't the 14-day-quarantine policy in major cities for incoming travelers present a thoroughly chilling effect on cross-border business at this stage, beyond just the regular virus fears?
Current guidance seems to be that for those coming from out of China the 14 day quarantine doesn’t apply (eg. See FCO guidance and quarantine in cities in shanghai). However the impact on business trips is going to be meaningful - significantly fewer airlines flying for at least another month or two, and the appeal of physically going to China to discuss a business deal has to be low right now.
I've been surprised at how little I've seen in western news about Wang Yanyi. How does a 38-year-old, relatively unremarkable lecturer from the University of Wuhan become head of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in such a short time? Surely it's worth interviewing a few of the French scientists who helped set up the Wuhan lab, or some of Wang's advisors from the University of Colorado, to see if there might be anything untoward about her rapid rise? Does anyone know of any serious journalists who have looked into the backgrounds of the officials at the Institute of Virology?
Yeah there are some sites like zerohedge which are looking into these questions. It’s hard to say for sure but if you are familiar with how these types of things are usually handled there you can guess the general outlines. In a country with free press this stuff might be worth looking into but in China you are probably going to find a lot of nothing as the people involved simply disappear.
Sorry, Bill let me know that Zerohedge is not a reliable source of information. Please ignore my prior comment.
Since this is a hotbed of Sinocism, I wanted to ask. What's the endgame for China, from the Chinese leadership POV?
What does taking their rightful place in the world look like? Or washing away the century of humiliation?
My impression - but I've been told this is just me regurgitating western propaganda - is that they want to exercise heavy control over their neighborhood.
The USA may be far from perfect in their foreign policy choices but I trust them to implement freedom of the seas and follow international laws in the Pacific far more than I would the Chinese. Similarly, I disagree with the IMF/Washington consensus way of handling economic crises but I don't see Vietnam or Indonesia fairing better under Chinese tutelage than under the established world order.
So my question is this - does China just want to throw his weight around, to feel big by bullying people around (like Russia under Putin) or do they have something else in mind? and if so, what?
Well, communism, even with “Chinese characteristics”, is fundamentally Godless - elevating the state, the party, and thus its head the dictator to full power. There are no checks and balances to power like you have in American Democracy. “Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely”, as the Puritan founders of America would say. Communist China is fundamentally not to be trusted in the same way that the Soviet Union could not be. They just play a little smarter game of deception and disinformation than the Soviets.
The greatness of the American system in generously protecting freedoms and equality and rule of law, in for example enabling a free Pacific region these many years, has flowed from Judeo-Christian faith and ideals. This correct worldview also instructs us to understand that evil is an ever present reality about which we must constantly be on the alert.
We must robustly defend these principles on which freedom rests as we are in a propaganda war with what is a great repository of evil.
doubt anyone knows, even Xi , then again, it's probably historical revisionism to say that FDR and Truman in 1941 knew what the end game of the US even 4 years later would be like.
Sure. In 1941, FDR and Truman had other concerns than thinking about the American Century. By 1946? I doubt they hadn't given it some thoughts...
But even the implied comparison between the Axis then/the USA now vs. the Allies then/China now seems wrong. We're not at war. We're not locked into a fight to the death where there can only be one winner. It's not clear to me why China is so bothered by Americans having a presence in their neck of the woods. Americans aren't exactly extracting wealth at gunpoint from the regional players. And, as I said, objectively, when did the US ever used its military power to lock Chinese seas?
I get that Taiwan is a sore point but is a tiny island of no consequence really worth spending several trillions of dollars on military hardware over decades in the hope of being able to conquer it eventually?
If China was investing that cash in becoming an attractive, free economic and intellectual powerhouse, maybe Taiwan would join the mainland willingly?
I have a comment on Jimmy Lai's WSJ OpEd that was mentioned in yesterday's newsletter.
To my understanding, what that piece essentially says is that the Western way of life is bound to happen in human society because there is "trust". On the other hand, for a system that has no "trust" like the CCP, it must eventually collapse.
I believe this kind of propaganda is unhelpful and dangerous to democracy and freedom in the face of authoritarians such as the CCP. People have now seen how the CCP exploited and corrupted the trust-based Western system in the past 20 years, and without an effective engagement policy (which this kind of propaganda has exactly provided an excuse not to have one), its authoritarian grip and overseas influence will only become stronger.
I think a top priority for those in charge of China policies in the West is to be realistic and think in terms of actual power (hard and soft) when it comes to engagement with China. Propaganda like the one above no longer "clicks" with many youths in China, and believe me, they prefer reading the Global Times.
I don’t really think that Mr. Lai’s opinion is propaganda. He lives in a place that values free speech and he uses that freedom to express his opinion. Unlike the Global Times, his opinions, though perhaps biased and misleading, are not portrayed as facts nor is there any expectation that they will be taken at face value. His voice is one in a great milieu of ideas regarding China being discussed in the free press.
Thank you for your thoughtful reply. I agree that it is people's right to express their views--even intolerant views--in a place where freedom of expression is valued. Yet from the anger in relation to the death of Dr. Li Wenliang, it is also clear that many people in China today value free speech, but other than this one incident, they still cannot have that right. Why? Because I think there is something that makes people's rights possible in the first place, and what I am suggesting here is that those who are enjoying their rights should not take them for granted, and they should be aware of that something and try to make it more secure.
Yes from what I saw on Weibo and Wechat in JAN-FEB there was some push among Chinese people for free speech as it relates to the Dr. Li situation. Of course it was suppressed rather quickly by censors, but I think the fact that they had reframed free speech as a public health issue rather than an explicitly political one is an interesting evolution. Sometimes in China progress cannot be made until an issue is reframed properly to avoid “sensitive” areas. Pollution is another one that comes to mind, it can be discussed rather openly as a problem as long as that does not veer into criticism of the party.
That aside, I do agree with your point that people should exercise their right to free speech responsibly and with a good understanding of their potential audience.
I would tune in to the open thread also!
Bill, do you know of any effort to help Chinese students and scholars who are already in the US, to wake up and walk out of the mental prison impinged by decades of CCP indoctrination education (brain washing)?
The factories I work with are all limited to local workers