Hi everyone, I want to try to have another open discussion today, but I am hoping you all can talk amongst yourselves and not just ask me questions. I will be lurking and may jump in but collectively you all know so much more about China. Please be polite and respectful. Thanks, Bill
would be interesting- though especially if a top 5 questions are shared beforehand to have an indication on how interesting it is going to be - also a a calendar placeholder invite with link would be handy - thanks !
Yes, please, having lived in Macau, Hong Kong and Beijing for a total of 12 years and still heavily linked to China, Inneed your input which in many ways corresponds to the news and inside info I get - thanks
That's for sure. This debate is very educational. But I hope the debate could start earlier, then there will be more people living in China could attend. And I hope there will be more pro-CPC voices, at least objective voices which are not on the "CPC is evil" basis.
hi bill, would it be possible make this discussion easier to navigate? say with headers and subs you can collapse like reddit? quite a lot of scrolling to find a post...
Loved Schell's observation: had Xi gone public at the start, calling on all "consequential powers" to join in combatting the virus, setting a template for other global issues, he could have transformed himself into a "global activist of the highest order and...come out with some greater strengths rather than just greater weaknesses."
mm ok... but do we see any other head of state doing this? coronavirus is already in other countries and we don't see this from other world leaders, do we? hindsight is 20/20 but i think it's because most assume the measures they are taking to be sufficient. doesn't this view assume that Xi had perfect knowledge of what this virus was from the outset and what measures were working? no doubt there is a necessary (and literal) post mortem to be done here but all leaders are dealing with imperfect and changing information. the question here for china is the extent to which CCP political culture hinders accurate assessment and timely, effective response to a crisis like this. but international cooperation depends on trust also and low trust also hampers effective cooperation / information flows.
Ada, I agree that we need to be careful about pointing the finger of blame. However, I think the point made in the podcast discussion is salient. There are indications that Xi was aware of the seriousness of the virus in early/mid January and that the efforts for the initial weeks were to contain the news rather than invite help with a crisis. In the context of a China that has been crafting a global narrative of cooperation and leadership (such as with the Paris climate agreement and upcoming agreements on biodiversity), this handling has been very damaging.
I think it's the Wuhan and Hubei containing the news, not the central government. The concepts of local government and central government are totally different. The local blinded the public and the central, as far as I realise.
I felt the same. I sensed that the concepts of local government and central governments are total different, if not the opposite. The fury caused by the incompetency of local government made the people applause the iron-fist of central government step-in to save the day.
As I asked LQ: The Politburo had a meeting on January 7 regarding the virus. Do you think the info they had at that time was false? Or do you think they choose to avoid the bad news and hope it goes away?
The Politburo had a meeting on January 7 regarding the virus. Do you think the info they had at that time was false? Or do you think they choose to avoid the bad news and deal with it later?
Fair enough, but Xi and the party leadership more generally have to find ways to accept greater responsibility toward the rest of the world. What China does internally -- for better or for worse -- affects the entire planet.
I’ll be kind here and invite a comparison with the United States, economically strong and populous countries have a hard time not viewing foreign affairs through the lens of domestic considerations. You can see this everyday in American politics and it also explains how China can accept plane loads of relief supplies while cursing America for “overreacting” among other blatant tonal contradictions. That being said, I think ethnostates have a special challenge in that they must incorporate the culture of grievance mongering on behalf of the state and on behalf of the “people”. Any attempt to act responsibly on the international stage is often accompanied by blowback at home if it is perceived to run counter to the interests of the Han majority and/or Chinese people in general. See the controversy surrounding their international student programs for a good example.
But if there are no consequential powers, some would argue that he doesn't care about people's lives. And calling on all consequential powers to join in combatting virus is the tradition and advantage of the Chinese political system. Don't need to overhead it, I think.
Hope this podcast can also invite some more dissidents to the podcast stance. They can these dissidents as pro China or pro CPC people or whatever. But the picture will be more reasonable and balanced rather than an anti CPC party.
The podcast content and comments in this thread are mostly focused on the (possible) negative outcomes for China. Why isn't the opposite at least considered? Epidemics can break out anywhere. China shown impressive capabilities, gained more experience handling it, possibly learned from mistakes like the early cover up and handling of wildlife, hygiene...this largely brings the country together and helps bring supply chains to China as it would likely be better prepared for the next crisis than elsewhere.
Is Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) helping with the treatment of COVID-19? did it help with SARS? I know it is widely mocked but my experiences with it helping with asthma and respiratory issues was overwhelmingly positive.
Hi Bill my experience is limited to Vietnam. Interviewed index case nurses from SAR 2003. They said when their traditional medicines didn't work...they knew something was terribly wrong (they were then diagnosed with SARS). Their traditional medicines worked for generations, and traditional meds became a bellwether for danger.
I think this is a key point. Because most people in China are likely to seek out TCM treatment initially for most illnesses in theory these small clinics and pharmacies would be an important source of information on developing outbreaks. Unfortunately this is exactly where the “spreading rumors” laws get in the way. It sounds like in Vietnam the system, though similar, is better at elevating these early warning signs.
There is no current solid data to prove that TCM has meaningful survival benefit for Covid-19. In theory, possible. However， TCM has been widely used in Wuhan and yet it has highest dead rate anywhere in the world.
my personal TCM experience is also that if this is a placebo effect it sure as hell is a very strong one and maybe we should consider just treating more people with placebos. but as for this particular virus it's unlikely it helps anymore than any other symptom relievers
i started seeing the founder of 厚扑中医 http://www.hope.org.cn/index.html in 2008. he now is a celebrity, has a huge operation so doubt you can see him but i think he has good doctors working with him
The government has a very practical set of trade-offs to consider. If you leave factories shutdown you will create a secondary human disaster. If you open them all back up, the virus is likely to spread much faster and farther. All these decisions have far reaching implications with still limited and incomplete hard data on the virus/epidemic characteristics. Microbiologists around the world are still arguing about very basic facts: incubation period, number of mild cases, infection vector, period that the infected are contagious, and how contagious is the virus. Therefore, any decisions are based on conjecture which are then more susceptible to the influence of secondary social/political issues.
Although I am currently in the United States, I hear increasingly desperate news from my many friends in Hubei and Henan. And across the whole country the mood is getting more and more sour and depressed. Being limited in association and travel for what looks like months is taking a severe toll on the whole country. We may find the secondary economic, social and humanitarian effects to be worse than the epidemic.
Until they allow in those microbiologists around the world to find the answers to the very basic facts, can this virus be slowed/stopped? And until then, can they reopen the economy?
One thing I find very interesting is the disdain many Chinese intellectuals seem to have for the Leader's intelligence. Many call him stupid, or low class. I heard this before the current crisis. Two of those speaking out about him in the current crisis have called him "not very smart." I'm curious about this for two reasons: first, it is completely the opposite of the image we have of him in the west. Secondly, are they emboldened to speak out now because they believe that the crisis has revealed the emperor's new clothes and believe it self-evident that he must step down. Or is this arrogance on their part and perhaps he is widely considered to be intelligent by the rest of Chinese society. Any comments on this from those more connected to China then myself?
One of the most unfortunate aspects of the contemporary Chinese "resistance" is that it is packed with snobs. While upper middle class folk can read these essays and look past the posturing to get to the deeper message, i think it might alienate working class people.
Belittling the intelligence of Xi on informal settings in China is like intellectuals here criticizing DT, it is almost a cliche to show that you are in the intellectuals class. It used to be ok for popular professors to express that sentiment even in classes. This has been prohibited and punished to the extend that no one (except a few like Xu Zhangrun) dares to say it outside of their trusted circle. I knew an incidence where an associate professor was fired not because he criticized China, but simply because he praised the US system in class. He was reported by student informer(s) assigned by CCP organizers on campus.
But do they really believe it? What comes through in Xu's essay is the idea of the technocratic class being stymied by the entitled people at the top of the system. Xi is depicted as the personification of this. Wouldn't it be more than posturing if many intellectuals thought that the rot went much further than the leader, that he was merely symptomatic of the problem? In other words, the current crisis is confirmation that the system is inherently flawed because of this generation of leaders inherited power -- a sentiment that Xi has no doubt spent much of his time trying to prove wrong. Intellectuals would see his posturing as whistling past the graveyard (I'm reminded of the big parade in the Fall when one friend said something like, only people who are really afraid make that much noise).
Xi does rely on fairly strong support from the common people who like his anti-corruption campaign and public image he portrays (family man, takes care of his mother, etc). You could kind of consider him a populist which tends to invite disdain from the intellectuals. He has also smashed alot of rival cliques which seems to have bred resentment among the elites (understandably).
Hi Bill, thanks for providing such good sources and insight. I had a colleague today say “I can’t wait for the COVID-19 to be the downfall of the CCP.” However, I do not believe the virus will lead to the unravelling of China’s state power, nor Xi’s ruling authority. The propaganda machine is better than it was back when China was battling SARS. Whilst there is online dissent there is also a lot of online propoganda and the CCP is under tighter constraint. However I do believe that a global recession is on the horizon, which could pose a potential threat to CCP rule if it is not managed well and Chinese growth continues to slump.
My general problem with the "I can't wait for the CCP to fall" logic is not that I like the CCP, it's that the alternative world could easily be much worse, and if you think the Chinese of the world (even outside of China) or heck anyone outside of just the "mainstream west" will just take the "oh RT is not endorsement" argument if China goes full Libya or something, you're probably making a major mistake
Would mind to elaborate? There can always be a worse alternative, but there can be better ones. Despite decades of brainwashing and the Party trying to convince everybody that "Chinese are too stupid for democracy", China has plenty of excellent human material for a post-CCP transition. If the apocalyptic scenario you envision is the separation into smaller states, that'd probably be for the best, in the long-term.
Chen Qiushi, the freelance journalist who was disappeared after filming conditions at Wuhan hospitals and interviewing witnesses, said something that really stuck with me in one of his final broadcasts. He knew someone outside of Wuhan who had a large quantity of masks but had no way to get them into the city. He was added to a large WeChat group of Wuhan citizens in a particular neighborhood and said, "I have masks. None of you have masks. Let's brainstorm a way to get them into the city. Who knows people?" And the people started saying, "Well we shouldn't have to transport them in. We should have them air-dropped." And then someone said, "Air-dropped? That might damage the apartment complex." And then someone said, "Oh I know of a spot we could have them air-dropped." And this went on and on, spiraling into a completely pointless argument about a non-existent "air-drop" scenario until people were just calling each other "stupid c*nts" and refusing to continue the conversation. Chen Qiushi's comment was that the CCP has been incredibly successful (over the past twenty years) at systematically annihilating the average person's ability to do "group work" of any kind, to come together organically to solve problems in real-time. Nobody knows each other. Nobody trusts each other. I know it's an isolated example but I think he's generally correct. People are very bad at this stuff now. And this has *nothing* to do with intelligence. It's about training. The population has been trained to work with tunnel-vision in highly localized scenarios in which personal gain and personal security trumps everything and larger more systematic problems are left to the higher-ups (in the company, in the government etc.). Rip that structure apart and force them to work together to solve completely new problems and you will get something much worse before you get something better.
I agree. I think most of us (speaking as an older millennial) are quite bad at this stuff now. I've done some local organizing a couple of times and the people with the "get shit done" attitude and the institutional memory to actually make things happen are all in their 60s and 70s. Meanwhile us millennials can barely introduce ourselves to the person standing next to us. Civil society is a skill not a state of being. It takes constant practice. We are all in pretty bad shape. But many Chinese young people have zero experience doing this kind of organizing and their parents are quickly forgetting what a deep sense of local community even felt like. I gather that in a lot of the success stories we've seen where apartment complexes organize to make sure that pets are being fed and the elderly being taken care during the quarantine the point-people are members of that older generation that does still interact with their neighbors. Happy to be corrected if its university students that are out doing this though. But to think that millions could magically transition from a deeply asocial or even anti-social mode of interacting with each other to a cooperative, democratic one in the midst of a catastrophic societal collapse triggered by an epidemic is absurd.
Yes it's possible there's a better outcome, but is it likely? and how likely? again, sure, there's an outcome where it turns into Taiwan or Eastern Europe, there's also an outcome where it turns into Libya or Iraq or Syria, does the former really solve everything? I'd really have reservations about that. (i.e Taiwan / Tibet etc, if you think China turning democratic automatically solves that for the better.) and who can really take any responsibilty if it turns into the later? certainly not the lady laughing about "we saw we came he died hahhaha"
I mean, in terms of human rights it can't get *that* much worse. People are disappeared, jailed, locked into camps based on their ideas and/or ethnicity right now, not to mention what happened in the past 70 years. Yes, you could always get another authoritarian government. What is the possible worse outcome you envision? War?
Oh heck it can get a lot worse if it turns into a literal war zone, just because the mainstream medias ain't reporting about literal slave trades in Libya 24/7 doesn't mean it aint there
Sorry to be rude. But u need to get out more and see the 3rd world. Interact with real poverty, desperation, failed communities, effects of absence of organisations, and of complete loss of personal dignity and hope, worn away by life. Billions of lives, not just Chinese, All real, are behind these debates. I find your nonchalant mindless cliches offensive frankly. The biggest factor behind Chicom's longevity is not how good they are, but how bad their opponents were and still are, and all the failures of the alternatives offered by their detractors, Chinese and foreign, for China and peers all over the world, over the last 90 years.
I'm well aware that most of the world is in a state of despair. But you guys keep comparing China with Libya or similar situations as if China could turn into a Libya but they are light years apart on so many dimensions. The "opponents" of China you need to look at are not Venezuela, Iran, Ebola-ridden countries in the African continent, etc. (all good friends of China, as it happens), where real poverty is an issue and human rights just not a thing. You need to look at what is incorrectly referred to as the "West" or other asian super powers. Surely these don't fail to provide a better alternative to the Chinese authoritarian model. You mention the 3rd world: China isn't 3rd world. Chinese people deserve better as much as 3rd world people deserve better.
I agree with you about the alternative being potentially worse. Perhaps it’s bevause I’ve grown up in a world in which China has only ever had one way of governance and one ruling system, but I cannot remotely envisage what China would look like and operate like under something other than the CCP. That is not not say I support or endorse the CCP.
It's my opinion that Americans are often really clouded by their own country's very positive revolution process which was far from the norm of the world
I think the CCP should oversee a slow transition to democracy through the training wheels of freedom of press and freedom of religion. I submit that allowing those initial steps will, over time, help the population become more able to self-govern.
I think it's the excellent performance of the CPC in the outbreak not its propaganda makes people have faith in it. Im a Chinese, my feeling is that: People were angry about the local government, i.e. Wuhan and Hubei, at the beginning of the outbreak, but always have faith in the central government. And we have no reason to hope the CPC collapse, because united we are strong. My finding in this fight to the coronavirus is that it's difficult to find another government which value people's right to life in such high level. It has the determination of using up every bullet. If you look at US fight against the swine flu, you will see a totally different picture. It's a socialist country indeed, so it puts the priority of economy and capitalists after the virus outbreak. What I find interesting is that you put your argument on the base of that CPC is evil and need to overthrow it.
I fully agree. Anybody here who uses WeChat and has looked at his/her contacts' moments recently has an idea of much Chinese of pretty much all social backgrounds still have faith in the leadership of the Party. But bring an economic downturn into the equation and things would change drastically.
At least as far as most of my contacts are concerned, I would rule out personal marketing. But it's important to note that I don't know anybody who is in Wuhan now, and the mood there may be significantly different.
If anything their propoganda organs seem to have been completely counterproductive in much of this current event, but I would once again remind people, especially as someone in the ROC with reasonable grasp of the events that lead to all this, is that in 1948, almost all the Americans in China supported Mao, that's a fact.
There were legitimate reasons to dislike Chiang and his crew, and the post WW2 world was generally a disastor for all non-US participatants regardless if they were on the ally side or not. (hey, it turns out having your whole country bombed for years is bad for economy once you lift war time restrictions! who knew!) that's the point though, the alternatives might be much worse. and ironically Chiang once dealt a very different hand in Taiwan did a lot better.
That's a modern take - "most expats" today - applied to 1948. I have no idea where expats stood back then. But from reading (Formosa Betrayed, for example, is available online for free) Chiang Kai Shek's KMT were not well liked.
If the Cultural Revolution didn’t do them (the CCP) in it’s hard to imagine what will. There’s been some talk about the younger generation not tolerating a return to those conditions but there are many middle aged Chinese who remember those days and they do sincerely believe that the current leaders brought them out of that. I agree with you that an economic crisis is more likely to represent a threat to the CCP than a health scare, though I think we are seeing that one could necessarily lead to another.
Hi Bill, just a random personal choice question. Myself, I received liberal arts education in the U.S. and came back to China three years ago as a returnee. I have been disappointed by overwhelming nationalism and the poor economy (or let's say inequality). I used to believe that as a Chinese person, it's hard to be ambitious if I end up migrating to another country. But Coronavirus totally broke my faith in China, is it the right time to move out?
Hi, I wish I could give you useful advice but that is such a deeply personal and momentous decision. All I can say is have you worked what you would do if you left, vs what you might do if you stay?
Related question: I’m a western graduate of a Chinese Studies course. Over the course of my degree and recent time in China I gradually became disillusioned with China’s political development and the growing presence of the party-state in daily life. Still held faith in China’s economic vitality but coronavirus has now put that in jeopardy somewhat.
How do you consider the prospects of Chinese-speaking Westerners beginning a career in China? Are there any fields where there’s a shortage of young talent? Is it still possible to gain experience in analyst/business/journalist roles in an ever more tightly controlled Chinese society?
Stuck outside of China now and reconsidering a lot of things while I’m waiting to return. Appreciate any comment.
China and its global influence is not going anywhere, so there should be opportunities for you to use your experience outside of China, dealing with Chinese firms/investments/tourists/policies etc
Dont make any irreversible decisions atm if u have that luxury. There are simply too many variables and not enough data. It would dramatically improve in even a month or two. So it s well worth waiting. Biggest mistakes people (who cant make money in my line of work, which is investing) make always have something to do with inability to live with uncertainty, which leads them to rushed decisions based on pretend certainty. I think in life it s the same. Always keep your options wide open, especially in times of high uncertainty. And be skeptical of anyone who claims to know the future and what has happened/is happening in times like this. They r usually either too stupid to know what they r saying or out to mislead you/the public.
Sounds like u ll have plenty options in and outside China anyway. Just keep watching, for hard data, not opinions or claims.
My family and I lived and worked through SARS in Beijing in 2003. Since I was working with China since 1973, I always had a long term perspective. By the end of 2003 SARS was forgotten -and off to the races.
Well, I am a Chinese working as PR professional in an MNC while my husband, an expat, works in a SOE. With more and more Chinese companies want to expand overseas and become true MNCs, there are opportunities open for expats to help navigate the culture barrier, change management, etc.
As for expats working in journalism, from an industry insider's experience, I guess you might get disappointment. I received complaints from Chinese media outlets about the tighter and tighter scrutiny and basically they can not touch political and other sensitive areas and were told to just reprint Xinhua and CCTV. And I foresee the scrutiny will only get worse.
During the quarantining period, at certain point I got so fed-up by the negativity and totally lost faith in this country and I told my husband that we should move back to his country and I need to change my nationality(my husband called me half-jokingly a brain-washed patriot Chinese before). But with another thought, I guess there is no perfect system in the world and no "right/wrong" choice. I still don't have the answer yet.
My feeling is that attempting to become a journalist in China is a lost cause unless you are willing to parrot the party line.
Still, one aspect of "reform and opening up" is that China is happy to grant working visas to "foreign experts". If you have a potential employer who is in with the party, or can legitimately prove that you are able to fill a gap that locals cannot, you will be able to get a visa and start your career. Look at education, supply chain management, regional sales or high tech.
I wouldn't recommend trying to build a long-term career here unless you are willing to play the game. There are those who do that, but if your politics do not align with the party and you do not have family ties, living here is probably not going to be something that will make you happy in the long term.
Thanks, and this is broadly my view on things. Next step would be to choose which industry I’d actually want to start in! At the back of my mind when making that decision is choosing industries and skills that will be transferable to back home. Parroting the party line will (hopefully) not be an in-demand skill.
Anecdotally, from conversations with friends on the mainland, the economy appears to be in the midst of a heart attack, with people's productivity at a barely a fraction of normal. But neither markets, news orgs nor mainstream economists seem to be displaying the appropriate amount of panic around this. Am I being too pessimistic? I see us on the brink of a major recession, with global repercussions, but is this the result of an anecdotal fallacy on my part?
To itemize the anecdotes: One friend who sells second hand cards has not sold a single car this month. Another friend supplies liquor to Shanghai bars — and has seen business stop dead. Another is a teacher stuck 2,000 km from her school in her ancestral village. My Chinese teacher has not left her home with her toddler in 3+ weeks...
Well, not a ton of steel has been sold since CNY. Inventory at historical highs. Restaurants, bars et al are closed. Legal persons of restaurants are held personally responsible for any corona infection on their premises. So far food delivery is ok, but opening of restaurants isn't. Also, too many people in charge: Commercial office, police, food hygiene people, much dreaded neighbourhood committees, etc., everybody wants to be in charge and everyone has different ideas.
Finally, another friend lives off commissions on real estate rental to foreigners in Shanghai. And now there are no more foreigners.
All these entrepreneurs and service industry people have seen their income go to zero, but they all will still need to pay the rent at the end of the month. And there isn't much savings to speak of.
Should I do a regular Friday open thread?
would be interesting- though especially if a top 5 questions are shared beforehand to have an indication on how interesting it is going to be - also a a calendar placeholder invite with link would be handy - thanks !
Every two weeks I think would be perfect.
Yes please. Preferably have a few questions or topics for people to comment on to get the discussion going
Excellent idea. The podcast you recommended and the discussion overall have been very valuable.
Yes, please, having lived in Macau, Hong Kong and Beijing for a total of 12 years and still heavily linked to China, Inneed your input which in many ways corresponds to the news and inside info I get - thanks
That's for sure. This debate is very educational. But I hope the debate could start earlier, then there will be more people living in China could attend. And I hope there will be more pro-CPC voices, at least objective voices which are not on the "CPC is evil" basis.
hi bill, would it be possible make this discussion easier to navigate? say with headers and subs you can collapse like reddit? quite a lot of scrolling to find a post...
Yes! This is great to be able to engage with discussions!
I agree.
Yes
Please and thank you!
是
yes, please!
Great idea the content is informative and debate is lively but respectful.
Yes, please
Yes!
Absolutely
this is the best podcast discussion i have heard so far on the outbreak Little red podcast - High Noon for Xi Jinping: The President Vs The Virus https://omny.fm/shows/the-little-red-podcast/high-noon-for-xi-jinping-the-president-vs-the-viru?fbclid=IwAR2dW40JqZ4j-wD66E5Y2XI7LRe_zZbjbbzBN7yGUWw01qy5rMb1B3TXb-A and excellent discussion, and a masterclass in how to do a podcast
Loved Schell's observation: had Xi gone public at the start, calling on all "consequential powers" to join in combatting the virus, setting a template for other global issues, he could have transformed himself into a "global activist of the highest order and...come out with some greater strengths rather than just greater weaknesses."
mm ok... but do we see any other head of state doing this? coronavirus is already in other countries and we don't see this from other world leaders, do we? hindsight is 20/20 but i think it's because most assume the measures they are taking to be sufficient. doesn't this view assume that Xi had perfect knowledge of what this virus was from the outset and what measures were working? no doubt there is a necessary (and literal) post mortem to be done here but all leaders are dealing with imperfect and changing information. the question here for china is the extent to which CCP political culture hinders accurate assessment and timely, effective response to a crisis like this. but international cooperation depends on trust also and low trust also hampers effective cooperation / information flows.
Ada, I agree that we need to be careful about pointing the finger of blame. However, I think the point made in the podcast discussion is salient. There are indications that Xi was aware of the seriousness of the virus in early/mid January and that the efforts for the initial weeks were to contain the news rather than invite help with a crisis. In the context of a China that has been crafting a global narrative of cooperation and leadership (such as with the Paris climate agreement and upcoming agreements on biodiversity), this handling has been very damaging.
I think it's the Wuhan and Hubei containing the news, not the central government. The concepts of local government and central government are totally different. The local blinded the public and the central, as far as I realise.
I felt the same. I sensed that the concepts of local government and central governments are total different, if not the opposite. The fury caused by the incompetency of local government made the people applause the iron-fist of central government step-in to save the day.
As I asked LQ: The Politburo had a meeting on January 7 regarding the virus. Do you think the info they had at that time was false? Or do you think they choose to avoid the bad news and hope it goes away?
The Politburo had a meeting on January 7 regarding the virus. Do you think the info they had at that time was false? Or do you think they choose to avoid the bad news and deal with it later?
(Damaging being my wording--Schell doesn't go that far, suggesting more of a missed opportunity)
Appreciated Lila, I haven't listened to the podcast yet, so I am more commenting on the comment. :)
Yes, a fanciful idea when you consider the actor.
Fair enough, but Xi and the party leadership more generally have to find ways to accept greater responsibility toward the rest of the world. What China does internally -- for better or for worse -- affects the entire planet.
As long as the Party is paramount, the rest of the world is an afterthought.
My sense is that for the sake of its own wealth and power, China must find ways to accept responsibility for the welfare of the rest of world as well.
I’ll be kind here and invite a comparison with the United States, economically strong and populous countries have a hard time not viewing foreign affairs through the lens of domestic considerations. You can see this everyday in American politics and it also explains how China can accept plane loads of relief supplies while cursing America for “overreacting” among other blatant tonal contradictions. That being said, I think ethnostates have a special challenge in that they must incorporate the culture of grievance mongering on behalf of the state and on behalf of the “people”. Any attempt to act responsibly on the international stage is often accompanied by blowback at home if it is perceived to run counter to the interests of the Han majority and/or Chinese people in general. See the controversy surrounding their international student programs for a good example.
I think China is doing that by curbing the spread of the virus.
That’ll be a disaster for the world. Its political coronavirus had better not spread the word.
Be polite please.
Agree, this was such a powerful point and speaks to the real weaknesses being exposed through this ordeal.
*overread
But if there are no consequential powers, some would argue that he doesn't care about people's lives. And calling on all consequential powers to join in combatting virus is the tradition and advantage of the Chinese political system. Don't need to overhead it, I think.
Xi is just not that kind of leader.
Agreed--thank you for bringing our attention to it in your last issue, it was a really good listen. I also found the article they reference at the end of the podcast by Prof Xu to be an eloquent reflection of the dissenting voices: https://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/viewpoint/viral-alarm-when-fury-overcomes-fear
Hope this podcast can also invite some more dissidents to the podcast stance. They can these dissidents as pro China or pro CPC people or whatever. But the picture will be more reasonable and balanced rather than an anti CPC party.
Thank you so much. Extremely interesting
The podcast content and comments in this thread are mostly focused on the (possible) negative outcomes for China. Why isn't the opposite at least considered? Epidemics can break out anywhere. China shown impressive capabilities, gained more experience handling it, possibly learned from mistakes like the early cover up and handling of wildlife, hygiene...this largely brings the country together and helps bring supply chains to China as it would likely be better prepared for the next crisis than elsewhere.
Ah, I did not know this podcast. Give it a try later.
Yes, it was really informative, agreed!
Is Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) helping with the treatment of COVID-19? did it help with SARS? I know it is widely mocked but my experiences with it helping with asthma and respiratory issues was overwhelmingly positive.
Hi Bill my experience is limited to Vietnam. Interviewed index case nurses from SAR 2003. They said when their traditional medicines didn't work...they knew something was terribly wrong (they were then diagnosed with SARS). Their traditional medicines worked for generations, and traditional meds became a bellwether for danger.
I think this is a key point. Because most people in China are likely to seek out TCM treatment initially for most illnesses in theory these small clinics and pharmacies would be an important source of information on developing outbreaks. Unfortunately this is exactly where the “spreading rumors” laws get in the way. It sounds like in Vietnam the system, though similar, is better at elevating these early warning signs.
There is no current solid data to prove that TCM has meaningful survival benefit for Covid-19. In theory, possible. However， TCM has been widely used in Wuhan and yet it has highest dead rate anywhere in the world.
my personal TCM experience is also that if this is a placebo effect it sure as hell is a very strong one and maybe we should consider just treating more people with placebos. but as for this particular virus it's unlikely it helps anymore than any other symptom relievers
I know other people who have been helped too. Whatever works.
But I've sincerely tried treatments my Chinese friends have suggested, and it's all been useless.
I have asthma/respiratory issues. Live in BJ. Any recommendations on where I can go for TCM treatment?
i started seeing the founder of 厚扑中医 http://www.hope.org.cn/index.html in 2008. he now is a celebrity, has a huge operation so doubt you can see him but i think he has good doctors working with him
Thanks kindly!
See https://www.nature.com/articles/s41422-020-0282-0.pdf
I know a doctor at United Family Hospital who is trained both in 'Western' and TCM.
The government has a very practical set of trade-offs to consider. If you leave factories shutdown you will create a secondary human disaster. If you open them all back up, the virus is likely to spread much faster and farther. All these decisions have far reaching implications with still limited and incomplete hard data on the virus/epidemic characteristics. Microbiologists around the world are still arguing about very basic facts: incubation period, number of mild cases, infection vector, period that the infected are contagious, and how contagious is the virus. Therefore, any decisions are based on conjecture which are then more susceptible to the influence of secondary social/political issues.
Although I am currently in the United States, I hear increasingly desperate news from my many friends in Hubei and Henan. And across the whole country the mood is getting more and more sour and depressed. Being limited in association and travel for what looks like months is taking a severe toll on the whole country. We may find the secondary economic, social and humanitarian effects to be worse than the epidemic.
Until they allow in those microbiologists around the world to find the answers to the very basic facts, can this virus be slowed/stopped? And until then, can they reopen the economy?
Letter from Beijing here with photos of what's been going on: https://mailchi.mp/berkshirepublishing/letter-from-beijing-love-in-the-time-of-covid-19?e=7a2d201fce
Read the letter, continuing to William McNeil's article. Good read, thanks for the share.
One thing I find very interesting is the disdain many Chinese intellectuals seem to have for the Leader's intelligence. Many call him stupid, or low class. I heard this before the current crisis. Two of those speaking out about him in the current crisis have called him "not very smart." I'm curious about this for two reasons: first, it is completely the opposite of the image we have of him in the west. Secondly, are they emboldened to speak out now because they believe that the crisis has revealed the emperor's new clothes and believe it self-evident that he must step down. Or is this arrogance on their part and perhaps he is widely considered to be intelligent by the rest of Chinese society. Any comments on this from those more connected to China then myself?
One of the most unfortunate aspects of the contemporary Chinese "resistance" is that it is packed with snobs. While upper middle class folk can read these essays and look past the posturing to get to the deeper message, i think it might alienate working class people.
Belittling the intelligence of Xi on informal settings in China is like intellectuals here criticizing DT, it is almost a cliche to show that you are in the intellectuals class. It used to be ok for popular professors to express that sentiment even in classes. This has been prohibited and punished to the extend that no one (except a few like Xu Zhangrun) dares to say it outside of their trusted circle. I knew an incidence where an associate professor was fired not because he criticized China, but simply because he praised the US system in class. He was reported by student informer(s) assigned by CCP organizers on campus.
But do they really believe it? What comes through in Xu's essay is the idea of the technocratic class being stymied by the entitled people at the top of the system. Xi is depicted as the personification of this. Wouldn't it be more than posturing if many intellectuals thought that the rot went much further than the leader, that he was merely symptomatic of the problem? In other words, the current crisis is confirmation that the system is inherently flawed because of this generation of leaders inherited power -- a sentiment that Xi has no doubt spent much of his time trying to prove wrong. Intellectuals would see his posturing as whistling past the graveyard (I'm reminded of the big parade in the Fall when one friend said something like, only people who are really afraid make that much noise).
Xi does rely on fairly strong support from the common people who like his anti-corruption campaign and public image he portrays (family man, takes care of his mother, etc). You could kind of consider him a populist which tends to invite disdain from the intellectuals. He has also smashed alot of rival cliques which seems to have bred resentment among the elites (understandably).
At least I strongly support him as he is trying so hard for beating corruption and upgrading economy.
Hi Bill, thanks for providing such good sources and insight. I had a colleague today say “I can’t wait for the COVID-19 to be the downfall of the CCP.” However, I do not believe the virus will lead to the unravelling of China’s state power, nor Xi’s ruling authority. The propaganda machine is better than it was back when China was battling SARS. Whilst there is online dissent there is also a lot of online propoganda and the CCP is under tighter constraint. However I do believe that a global recession is on the horizon, which could pose a potential threat to CCP rule if it is not managed well and Chinese growth continues to slump.
My general problem with the "I can't wait for the CCP to fall" logic is not that I like the CCP, it's that the alternative world could easily be much worse, and if you think the Chinese of the world (even outside of China) or heck anyone outside of just the "mainstream west" will just take the "oh RT is not endorsement" argument if China goes full Libya or something, you're probably making a major mistake
Would mind to elaborate? There can always be a worse alternative, but there can be better ones. Despite decades of brainwashing and the Party trying to convince everybody that "Chinese are too stupid for democracy", China has plenty of excellent human material for a post-CCP transition. If the apocalyptic scenario you envision is the separation into smaller states, that'd probably be for the best, in the long-term.
Chen Qiushi, the freelance journalist who was disappeared after filming conditions at Wuhan hospitals and interviewing witnesses, said something that really stuck with me in one of his final broadcasts. He knew someone outside of Wuhan who had a large quantity of masks but had no way to get them into the city. He was added to a large WeChat group of Wuhan citizens in a particular neighborhood and said, "I have masks. None of you have masks. Let's brainstorm a way to get them into the city. Who knows people?" And the people started saying, "Well we shouldn't have to transport them in. We should have them air-dropped." And then someone said, "Air-dropped? That might damage the apartment complex." And then someone said, "Oh I know of a spot we could have them air-dropped." And this went on and on, spiraling into a completely pointless argument about a non-existent "air-drop" scenario until people were just calling each other "stupid c*nts" and refusing to continue the conversation. Chen Qiushi's comment was that the CCP has been incredibly successful (over the past twenty years) at systematically annihilating the average person's ability to do "group work" of any kind, to come together organically to solve problems in real-time. Nobody knows each other. Nobody trusts each other. I know it's an isolated example but I think he's generally correct. People are very bad at this stuff now. And this has *nothing* to do with intelligence. It's about training. The population has been trained to work with tunnel-vision in highly localized scenarios in which personal gain and personal security trumps everything and larger more systematic problems are left to the higher-ups (in the company, in the government etc.). Rip that structure apart and force them to work together to solve completely new problems and you will get something much worse before you get something better.
That is a correct and very significant observation. China is a giant in chains right now. Dont know if we should wish for unchaining though...
I agree. I think most of us (speaking as an older millennial) are quite bad at this stuff now. I've done some local organizing a couple of times and the people with the "get shit done" attitude and the institutional memory to actually make things happen are all in their 60s and 70s. Meanwhile us millennials can barely introduce ourselves to the person standing next to us. Civil society is a skill not a state of being. It takes constant practice. We are all in pretty bad shape. But many Chinese young people have zero experience doing this kind of organizing and their parents are quickly forgetting what a deep sense of local community even felt like. I gather that in a lot of the success stories we've seen where apartment complexes organize to make sure that pets are being fed and the elderly being taken care during the quarantine the point-people are members of that older generation that does still interact with their neighbors. Happy to be corrected if its university students that are out doing this though. But to think that millions could magically transition from a deeply asocial or even anti-social mode of interacting with each other to a cooperative, democratic one in the midst of a catastrophic societal collapse triggered by an epidemic is absurd.
It is not decades of brainwashing. It is millennia
Yes it's possible there's a better outcome, but is it likely? and how likely? again, sure, there's an outcome where it turns into Taiwan or Eastern Europe, there's also an outcome where it turns into Libya or Iraq or Syria, does the former really solve everything? I'd really have reservations about that. (i.e Taiwan / Tibet etc, if you think China turning democratic automatically solves that for the better.) and who can really take any responsibilty if it turns into the later? certainly not the lady laughing about "we saw we came he died hahhaha"
I mean, in terms of human rights it can't get *that* much worse. People are disappeared, jailed, locked into camps based on their ideas and/or ethnicity right now, not to mention what happened in the past 70 years. Yes, you could always get another authoritarian government. What is the possible worse outcome you envision? War?
Oh heck it can get a lot worse if it turns into a literal war zone, just because the mainstream medias ain't reporting about literal slave trades in Libya 24/7 doesn't mean it aint there
Sorry to be rude. But u need to get out more and see the 3rd world. Interact with real poverty, desperation, failed communities, effects of absence of organisations, and of complete loss of personal dignity and hope, worn away by life. Billions of lives, not just Chinese, All real, are behind these debates. I find your nonchalant mindless cliches offensive frankly. The biggest factor behind Chicom's longevity is not how good they are, but how bad their opponents were and still are, and all the failures of the alternatives offered by their detractors, Chinese and foreign, for China and peers all over the world, over the last 90 years.
I'm well aware that most of the world is in a state of despair. But you guys keep comparing China with Libya or similar situations as if China could turn into a Libya but they are light years apart on so many dimensions. The "opponents" of China you need to look at are not Venezuela, Iran, Ebola-ridden countries in the African continent, etc. (all good friends of China, as it happens), where real poverty is an issue and human rights just not a thing. You need to look at what is incorrectly referred to as the "West" or other asian super powers. Surely these don't fail to provide a better alternative to the Chinese authoritarian model. You mention the 3rd world: China isn't 3rd world. Chinese people deserve better as much as 3rd world people deserve better.
I agree with you about the alternative being potentially worse. Perhaps it’s bevause I’ve grown up in a world in which China has only ever had one way of governance and one ruling system, but I cannot remotely envisage what China would look like and operate like under something other than the CCP. That is not not say I support or endorse the CCP.
It's my opinion that Americans are often really clouded by their own country's very positive revolution process which was far from the norm of the world
The American revolution was mere a fight over who gets to ethnically cleanse a fat bird of a continent and eat all the giblets.
I think the CCP should oversee a slow transition to democracy through the training wheels of freedom of press and freedom of religion. I submit that allowing those initial steps will, over time, help the population become more able to self-govern.
I think it's the excellent performance of the CPC in the outbreak not its propaganda makes people have faith in it. Im a Chinese, my feeling is that: People were angry about the local government, i.e. Wuhan and Hubei, at the beginning of the outbreak, but always have faith in the central government. And we have no reason to hope the CPC collapse, because united we are strong. My finding in this fight to the coronavirus is that it's difficult to find another government which value people's right to life in such high level. It has the determination of using up every bullet. If you look at US fight against the swine flu, you will see a totally different picture. It's a socialist country indeed, so it puts the priority of economy and capitalists after the virus outbreak. What I find interesting is that you put your argument on the base of that CPC is evil and need to overthrow it.
I fully agree. Anybody here who uses WeChat and has looked at his/her contacts' moments recently has an idea of much Chinese of pretty much all social backgrounds still have faith in the leadership of the Party. But bring an economic downturn into the equation and things would change drastically.
are those moments/posts from conviction or for personal marketing?
At least as far as most of my contacts are concerned, I would rule out personal marketing. But it's important to note that I don't know anybody who is in Wuhan now, and the mood there may be significantly different.
And maybe not.
If anything their propoganda organs seem to have been completely counterproductive in much of this current event, but I would once again remind people, especially as someone in the ROC with reasonable grasp of the events that lead to all this, is that in 1948, almost all the Americans in China supported Mao, that's a fact.
Where do you get that information? I am very curious
https://www.amazon.com/Beautiful-Country-Middle-Kingdom-America/dp/0805092501 is a good read on this from the English sources, there's a good reason why most of the guys working for the state department stationed in China during and immediately after WW2 were dragged into the Mcarthy trails, and several notable figures even fled and lived out their days in Beijing, see. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solomon_Adler or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Arthur_Bisson or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Coe
Oh thank you for taking the time to respond!
Wow, I didn't know most Americans in China supported Mao before 1949.
But most expats, in my experience, lean left politically. Would that help account for that?
As a historian of sorts, I would recommend re-reading or reading for the first time https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1972-10-01/if-mao-had-come-washington-essay-alternatives --a great reminder of how the world could have been different. Also, Forgotten Ally is helpful in understanding that.
There were legitimate reasons to dislike Chiang and his crew, and the post WW2 world was generally a disastor for all non-US participatants regardless if they were on the ally side or not. (hey, it turns out having your whole country bombed for years is bad for economy once you lift war time restrictions! who knew!) that's the point though, the alternatives might be much worse. and ironically Chiang once dealt a very different hand in Taiwan did a lot better.
That's a modern take - "most expats" today - applied to 1948. I have no idea where expats stood back then. But from reading (Formosa Betrayed, for example, is available online for free) Chiang Kai Shek's KMT were not well liked.
If the Cultural Revolution didn’t do them (the CCP) in it’s hard to imagine what will. There’s been some talk about the younger generation not tolerating a return to those conditions but there are many middle aged Chinese who remember those days and they do sincerely believe that the current leaders brought them out of that. I agree with you that an economic crisis is more likely to represent a threat to the CCP than a health scare, though I think we are seeing that one could necessarily lead to another.
Hi Bill, just a random personal choice question. Myself, I received liberal arts education in the U.S. and came back to China three years ago as a returnee. I have been disappointed by overwhelming nationalism and the poor economy (or let's say inequality). I used to believe that as a Chinese person, it's hard to be ambitious if I end up migrating to another country. But Coronavirus totally broke my faith in China, is it the right time to move out?
Hi, I wish I could give you useful advice but that is such a deeply personal and momentous decision. All I can say is have you worked what you would do if you left, vs what you might do if you stay?
Related question: I’m a western graduate of a Chinese Studies course. Over the course of my degree and recent time in China I gradually became disillusioned with China’s political development and the growing presence of the party-state in daily life. Still held faith in China’s economic vitality but coronavirus has now put that in jeopardy somewhat.
How do you consider the prospects of Chinese-speaking Westerners beginning a career in China? Are there any fields where there’s a shortage of young talent? Is it still possible to gain experience in analyst/business/journalist roles in an ever more tightly controlled Chinese society?
Stuck outside of China now and reconsidering a lot of things while I’m waiting to return. Appreciate any comment.
China and its global influence is not going anywhere, so there should be opportunities for you to use your experience outside of China, dealing with Chinese firms/investments/tourists/policies etc
Dont make any irreversible decisions atm if u have that luxury. There are simply too many variables and not enough data. It would dramatically improve in even a month or two. So it s well worth waiting. Biggest mistakes people (who cant make money in my line of work, which is investing) make always have something to do with inability to live with uncertainty, which leads them to rushed decisions based on pretend certainty. I think in life it s the same. Always keep your options wide open, especially in times of high uncertainty. And be skeptical of anyone who claims to know the future and what has happened/is happening in times like this. They r usually either too stupid to know what they r saying or out to mislead you/the public.
Sounds like u ll have plenty options in and outside China anyway. Just keep watching, for hard data, not opinions or claims.
My family and I lived and worked through SARS in Beijing in 2003. Since I was working with China since 1973, I always had a long term perspective. By the end of 2003 SARS was forgotten -and off to the races.
Well, I am a Chinese working as PR professional in an MNC while my husband, an expat, works in a SOE. With more and more Chinese companies want to expand overseas and become true MNCs, there are opportunities open for expats to help navigate the culture barrier, change management, etc.
As for expats working in journalism, from an industry insider's experience, I guess you might get disappointment. I received complaints from Chinese media outlets about the tighter and tighter scrutiny and basically they can not touch political and other sensitive areas and were told to just reprint Xinhua and CCTV. And I foresee the scrutiny will only get worse.
During the quarantining period, at certain point I got so fed-up by the negativity and totally lost faith in this country and I told my husband that we should move back to his country and I need to change my nationality(my husband called me half-jokingly a brain-washed patriot Chinese before). But with another thought, I guess there is no perfect system in the world and no "right/wrong" choice. I still don't have the answer yet.
I am a foreigner in China who speaks Chinese.
My feeling is that attempting to become a journalist in China is a lost cause unless you are willing to parrot the party line.
Still, one aspect of "reform and opening up" is that China is happy to grant working visas to "foreign experts". If you have a potential employer who is in with the party, or can legitimately prove that you are able to fill a gap that locals cannot, you will be able to get a visa and start your career. Look at education, supply chain management, regional sales or high tech.
I wouldn't recommend trying to build a long-term career here unless you are willing to play the game. There are those who do that, but if your politics do not align with the party and you do not have family ties, living here is probably not going to be something that will make you happy in the long term.
Thanks, and this is broadly my view on things. Next step would be to choose which industry I’d actually want to start in! At the back of my mind when making that decision is choosing industries and skills that will be transferable to back home. Parroting the party line will (hopefully) not be an in-demand skill.
Anecdotally, from conversations with friends on the mainland, the economy appears to be in the midst of a heart attack, with people's productivity at a barely a fraction of normal. But neither markets, news orgs nor mainstream economists seem to be displaying the appropriate amount of panic around this. Am I being too pessimistic? I see us on the brink of a major recession, with global repercussions, but is this the result of an anecdotal fallacy on my part?
To itemize the anecdotes: One friend who sells second hand cards has not sold a single car this month. Another friend supplies liquor to Shanghai bars — and has seen business stop dead. Another is a teacher stuck 2,000 km from her school in her ancestral village. My Chinese teacher has not left her home with her toddler in 3+ weeks...
Well, not a ton of steel has been sold since CNY. Inventory at historical highs. Restaurants, bars et al are closed. Legal persons of restaurants are held personally responsible for any corona infection on their premises. So far food delivery is ok, but opening of restaurants isn't. Also, too many people in charge: Commercial office, police, food hygiene people, much dreaded neighbourhood committees, etc., everybody wants to be in charge and everyone has different ideas.
cars, not cards... ugh
Finally, another friend lives off commissions on real estate rental to foreigners in Shanghai. And now there are no more foreigners.
All these entrepreneurs and service industry people have seen their income go to zero, but they all will still need to pay the rent at the end of the month. And there isn't much savings to speak of.