Hi everyone, today’s thread is for subscribers only. Some questions to consider, but please add your own:
How can PRC policymakers counteract the collapse in global demand as the pandemic spreads globally, and has anyone quantified the impact of the global economic drop on the PRC economy?;
Could net new foreign direct investment into the PRC drop to near zero for months, given the global economic issues, and what would the impact be? How many executives want to spend 14 days in self-paid quarantine before doing due diligence on a project?;
Given the growing economic challenges for the PRC economy, should we expect increasingly tough “stability maintenance” measures?;
Given the rise in imported cases into China as official data say local cases are now 0, is there a chance the PRC will shut its borders and keep them closed for weeks/months, as more and more countries around the world seem to be doing?
If you believe the PRC bears primary responsibility for the spread of this global pandemic given the initial coverup and missteps, how do governments hold the PRC accountable without stoking anti-Chinese and broader anti-Asian sentiment?;
In addition to I think 13 US reporters expelled this week, the PRC authorities also forced several of the PRC citizens in several foreign news bureaus to resign. Those PRC reporters are not allowed to be “reporters”, but they play absolutely critical roles for most foreign correspondents, at significant personal risk. These additional moves by the PRC authorities appear to have the aim of effectively gutting at least in the near-term the work of these media in the PRC. How should the US respond?
As the CCP ramps up it global campaign to tell its version of the outbreak and response, should Twitter, Facebook and Youtube push back on disinformation disseminated by PRC officials and media, such as Zhao Lijian and his “It might be the US Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan” tweet for example?
I'm a college counselor in Xi'an. We finally have some start dates for the spring semester. It is March 30 for high school senior 3 students, and April 7 for middle school grade 3 students (both grades have entrance examinations: gaokao and zhongkao respectively).
However, don't be fooled.
There is no start date yet for all other students (elementary, university, international programs, etc.) Will be interesting to see how the school situation here changes over the next couple weeks and if they are able to keep an outbreak from happening at a school.
How can I ask my Chinese friends to stop bestowing me with virus suppression tactics? I find them patronizing, condescending and obnoxious. I know the propaganda organs are pushing the idea that China needs to be the beacon of light to the rest of the world in the battle against this virus, and I’m not trying to humble or insult my chinese friends, but their lack of humility bugs the crap out of me.
5) and 7) Right now, every country is focussed on containing the pandemic and dealing with its fallout - both human and economic. Three months down the road, when the pandemic is hopefully under better control, i fear that the blame games will start in earnest. While we can hope for saner heads to prevail, the US is going through an election year and this pandemic has the potential for upsetting the incumbent's odds - the response to which may go make this debate get more heated. Information is very local - i very much doubt that the CCP will be able to materially influence the common man's views about the source of the virus and i doubt that the democrats would want to take the CCP line either..
6. The way that the Chinese government controls who can work for foreign media organizations, NGOs (when they were actually allowed to operate), and even locally hired staff for foreign consulates and embassies is a fact of life little understood by people who have never worked in China. While not as restrictive as it was in the past, it was clear during my time there that the locals who worked closely around myself and my staff were required to maintain a line of communication with Chinese government (security) officials regarding our activities as needed. Having to balance that against their in many cases sincere desire to do their job properly and effectively was a huge burden to ask them to carry. To see the Chinese govt then turn around and punish these individuals over something they have no control over just underlines how petty this regime really is.
As far as a response, this is where we hold the line on free speech. Reciprocity is fine but I think at this point we should probably walk away from this little back and forth rather than keep clamping down on the soon to be vestigial Chinese media operation in the States. The salad days of 2014-2016 where American newspapers thoughtlessly reprinted Global Times nonsense are probably gone forever anyway.
To all those saying "more cooperation now": Aren't transparency, consistency, tolerance for different views, and willingness to compromise the prerequisite for any type of trust and cooperation in modern society?
How do you cooperate with a regime which has none of these and which is so obsessed with doublespeak (e.g. "中国的民主是一种全过程的民主") and all those crazy authoritarian stuff, the only logic of which is "more coercion, more control, and more power"? And with the emperor and his underlings increasing their grip on the private sector and private citizens, how would it be more feasible for cooperation to emerge even out of "spontaneous order" where no initiative or support from the government is required?
This is not a "China" vs. "US" issue. This looks more and more like a "communist authoritarianism combined with a pre-modern social fabric that has a strong flavor of xenophobia/racism" vs. "the modern world" issue.
Re Amb Max Baucus: "I feel strongly ....This is a crisis...Both US and China were negligent..." diplomatic considerations may justify the even-handedness, so long as we privately recall that one was negligent, and the other brutishly repressive
On 5), surely all that PRC needs to do is to show the case graph in China and Europe/America separately since January, with the long period of hardly nothing in the latter and the explosion in recent weeks that started with the End of the Chinese crisis, superimposed with timings of border closures, what WHO was saying before and during those weeks and what Western Europe and North America were doing at the same time.
There is no question in my mind where the failures have been. First one at the beginning and the second one, the 2nd half of Feb and early March. The first one is arguably excuseable. The second, absolutely not! As for accountability, each government needs to be held accountable to their own people. Shifting the blame to jonhnny foreigners simply wont do.
I hope the world is civilised enough in the 21st century not to resort to politics/race based scapegoating in the face of something as serious and universal as this. We should all be big and mature enugh to admit to and learn from mistakes. Alas, so far, there s no sign of it.
Meanwhile, having escaped Switzerland (10x the infection density of China), am hiding in the english countryside, wondering if the whole thing s going to solve Western Europe's long term fiscal and demographic problem. Perish the thought? Has Chicom been too naive about this virus?!
mossroberts Sino-US issues are difficult and involve both govts, not primarily other countries. I wouldn’t conflate bilateral tensions with global problems, though it’s a common device of argument. It’s incumbent on both Leviathans to work together as Baucus rightly urges, neither behaving as if it’s superior to the other. (Such different historical circumstances!)
5. I think the deterioration in US China relations has to be seen as a continuum. According to Gallup polling the impression US Citizens have vis a vis China has plunged to post-Tiananmen levels in just the last few years. U.S. politicians have seized on this as a foreign policy issue and a feedback loop has been created. I have seen ample evidence this trend is occurring in many other countries at the same time.
It’s not inevitable that a health crisis, even a poorly managed one, can harm a country’s global image and foreign relations. There was no serious debate about “holding the DRC accountable” after Ebola, the international community just handled it the way many wish they would handle the current crisis. So why are we adopting this attitude toward China? And why did they accurately predict this would happen and rush forward with their own disinformation campaign to counteract it? Again, it’s the continuum. This crisis, leaving aside the obvious similarities to things like SARS, is simply another chapter from the same playbook that the CCP always uses (deny, suppress, censor, spread disinformation, blame foreigners, take credit for victory over disaster they created or exacerbated).
And therefore the debate isn’t really about responsibility for this pandemic, but rather accountability for a system of authoritarian control that increasingly presents an existential threat not just to its own citizens, but also to all people across the entire world. The answer is in all cases and circumstances the same. Transparency, accountability, and if not democratic reforms inside China than at least an honest attempt to adhere to international norms in trade, diplomacy, and public health. The same things that are always promised but somehow never actually delivered.
How should non-PRC employers position their foreign employees and dependents in China? As James Palmer said this week in a Foreign Policy email, "The warning signs are flashing bright red for foreigners in China, who should, at a minimum, have an exit strategy—and would be wise to use it soon..."
About (6): The assistants are sometimes daring individuals. However, some of the CVs journalists receive from job applicants are simply too good to be true. Generally, employees of foreign journalists in China need to be considered as having been compromised.
Overall, there is a up to a handful of minders for each foreign journalist in China.
For good measure, the Chinese embassies abroad collect everything that is published about China in their respective locations and report back to Beijing. Nothing escapes their zeal, everything a journalist has published is in her/his file.
Edged into communists mindset is, that they are besieged by hostile foreign forces. This paranoia is actually an important pillar, lack of which would cause severe cracks in their ideological structure. They absolutely can't conceive, that there is no guiding 'black hand' in the background, totally unthinkable.
On "our" side, journalism has changed. While in the 1980s, when asked what their purpose was, journalists tended to answer 'fair and true reporting'. In the 2000s this changed to 'uncovering scandals'. That is certainly a result of competitive pressures on the media, that was not as strong in the 1980s.
So here we have super-charged media, clashing with a hyper-paranoid regime. This can't go well.
This is not to say, that foreign correspondents should resign themselves to writing only about "lush places" in China, but relations used to be better and may be our media should think about, if there is something they could do to de-escalate, without sacrificing journalistic principles.
“Generally, employees of foreign journalists in China need to be considered as having been compromised.”
Knowing several such people myself, this just isn’t true. It’s offensive, even. These people stick their necks out with no hope of recognition or career advancement. They don’t deserve such baseless accusations.
I take exception at the term "baseless". Who are you to go around accusing people of saying something baseless? I said "generally", which certainly means exceptions apply. The experiences of 2 long time journalists and friends in Beijing incl. the godfather of my son are a reminder, that you can't be careful enough.
There were efforts to suppress information and to keep the public in the dark; these efforts clearly seem to have been perpetrated by officials with all orders of government throughout the country. As for the notification to the WHO, what wasn't shared (and may not have been widely understood) was the ability of COVID-19 (the SARS-like virus identified as the time) to be transmitted from person-to-person.
Let's not forget, as well, that the PRC propaganda has been playing up the actions of the authorities in Wuhan--including the local public security organs--to punish those, including the late Dr Li Wenliang--who had disseminated information about what the virus was doing to people. The reason? They had not been authorized to disseminate that information.
Sounds like a cover up to me (and to officials in Beijing, based on what they've been saying).
About (6): Will this basically backfire and fuel the discontent of information savvy middle class + in China? There has been a societal semblance in China that things are different but similar enough to the Western world. One can see that with the McDonalds, or more importantly the ubiquitous Starbucks in all the major cities. The press was also part of it, and having the big three pushed out there will no longer be the patina of reasonableness that comes from, these major news organizations covering China. The absurdity and starkness of official media outlets will become more and more clear. It's hopefully just another crack in the armor for what is massive silent discontent which for many of us involved in China can see in our circles. The discontent that I see comes from the professional class, including entrepreneurs, who have accepted the raw deal of the CCP to set down ideals they had in 1989 and focus on making a fortune. This was ripped open during the initial response and muzzling in Wuhan obviously.
I think many of the younger folks already view official media with disinterest if not outright derision, but State propaganda has found a new life on social media where rumors and conspiracy theories can be pruned and nurtured by censors like a bonsai tree to guide opinion to just the right narrative to serve the party’s interests. Authoritarian regimes operate very effectively in this kind of media environment.
About (2): I don't know if from a sheer volume this will show up, but venture capital and private equity will be very active in China in 2020. Just like everything else is different since either the GFC (2008) or SARS (2003), innumerable firms have long-standing local teams in Beijing, Shanghai, and of course Hong Kong. Especially because many believe China will recover faster, economically, than the rest of the world and because the macro mega trends still favor China, there is a lot of interest and chatter about it. 2009, post GFC was one of the greatest years of foreign FDI VC investing into China. Of course a great deal of this capital will go into the VIE structure so not initially into China but surely the capital will get into China by the companies. The other point which is very different is the relative outperformance and robustness of the China domestic equity capital markets. Essentially with the capital account tightly managed, China is becoming an attractive closed-loop system for foreign investment.
Of course this does not address all the manufacturers who have already begun to pull out and relocate to other countries for cost reasons or the US-China conflict.
About (5): It does not matter why and where the epidemic originated. First and foremost, because it is already water under the bridge. Secondly, as we can see live before our eyes, any other nation - with not a single exception - would have been perfectly capable of the very same.
One issue that ought to be considered in this context is big-state control over UN organizations. A number of commentators have noted that the WHO waited an awfully long time before finally calling the thing a pandemic. That said, it was certainly quick to jump all over the EU member states (by wasting no time to call Europe the new epicentre of the pandemic). Recall the kid gloves approach the WHO took with China in January.
The WHO has also kept on telling states that imposing restrictions on movements through national borders was NOT the way to go, yet now we see every sensible politician in most states moving quickly to do just that. It has been exasperating to see how long it took some leaders to drop the nonsense about following the WHO line.
This has certainly been a collective failure, but some states have failed more than others. The WHO, as well, will probably come under great scrutiny when all is said and done.
About (2): In my observation a significant, if not the biggest part of China FDI are "recycled RMB". That is domestic enterprises, who invest in China through their own Hong Kong or BVI subsidiary, in order to get foreign investor status and related benefits, such as tax breaks et al. Therefore, I don't think FDI will head for zero.
In putting together balance of payments accounts, profits earned on past foreign investment is treating as a service outflow in the current account and new foreign direct investment in the financial account. Zero FDI then would need substantial capital repatriation, not simply an end to "new" investment.
Max Baucus. I feel strongly the US should not stoop to the blame game. This is a crises, not a common international squabble. Both US and China were negligent with poor initial responses. Rather we should look for opportunities to cooperate, even as difficult as that may be, as we did with another global health crises: Ebola. People want solutions. They don’t like listening to blame. Especially in a crises as great as this one.
It would be helpful if certain US politicians and news media commentators would drop the racist rhetoric, but when do we expect officials in China to apologize for the false narratives they have been floating?
The health crisis will be over sooner or later. What is needed now is exactly what you say, cooperation. Specifically China-Japan-US-EU cooperation, caused by the - possibly overblown - anti-virus measures. No single county can handle this economic mess on its own, it absolutely requires the hand-in-glove-coop of all the leading economies. If any of them still follows 'my country first', then the mess can't be tackled an we'll spiral down into an economic abyss.
Thanks AMB Baucus. Hopefully by working together countries (esp. US, China) can develop a rapid vaccine (e.g. DARPA has a program dedicated to this) within 9-12 months.
Yes, admitting the above - that both sides have made errors in initial responses - and then transitioning to opportunities to collaborate would certainly help. Admitting such mistakes. We are humans dealing with a new phenomenon in a new age - crucial to building trust and fostering collaborative path forward. Can both sides do this? Can the US lead by example?
Regarding point 2, as a startup technology investor, I see two issues. To the point you raise, no one is going to do 14 days in quarantine to do a deal (and probably 14 days on the other end when they return home). So given my need to interact in person with founders, that will kill travel to China until things normalize. The second point is more in line with the overreaction of the PRC in point 6 – given the way things are heading between the US and China, are the potential rewards worth the business (and personal) risks? Xi and the leadership seem to be so concerned about threats to Party supremacy that they are acting in ways that are clearly counter-productive and will worsen the FDI and general investment environment. My judgment is that the opportunities in Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia and Korea are great, the risks minimal, and they are far more enthusiastic about US capital (partly to offset Chinese pressure). So I and my company are not looking to China for the foreseeable future and perhaps ever.
Regarding points #5 and #7, I feel strongly that the USG and its allies should strongly push back against the disinformation campaigns out there by the PRC (and Russia) w/r to the origins of Coronavirus. This should be done with great thought and care, and without using potentially racist terms (e.g. Chinese virus, Wuhan virus) and by appealing to the PRC and other countries, as well as multilateral international organizations (e.g. WHO) to combat this pandemic. The science and epidemiology are so complex that working together may be the best and even only solution. This is how the world eradicated Smallpox in 1968.
'Wuhan Virus' is geographic- not racist. Reminds me of when Max Brooks' screenplay for movie World War Z was forced to redact the virus origin from Mainland China (originally in the book) but Brad Pitt's UN character had to speculate it was from other parts. Working together with PRC specifically on Corona may be impossible if disease response further reveals CCP ineptitude- I'm thinking of poor practice in pithing and incinerating lab animals in particular- that reveals Wuhan Infectious Disease Unit to be backward, embarrassing Xi and Deputies in the process.
....And admit mistakes. NY Governor Cuomo takes responsibility for his leadership actions (watch his press conferences). If this virus inadvertently escaped from the lab in Wuhan, just admit it and improve lab management. Better than cover ups that breed further mistrust.
Regarding 7) Yes they should, fake news and missinformation needs to be called out. If anyone has nothing to lose by standing up to China its Facebook and Twitter.
Social media wants a discussion-- any discussion --as unfortunately, this is how their revenue model works. Social media platforms rely on the churn of discussions and consequently the churn of advertising $$.
While the Lijian comment is a false statement, a quick “shallow” dive into the world of the alt-right and “Q” anon social media writings, will reveal the same baseless rantings on other subjects. And, if one is then going to point out that this disinformation was disseminated by PRC officials and media, I can only point to our own president and his sycophant following in the U.S. Senate.
Nothing about how social media works insists on personal responsibility for socially appropriate behavior.
Regarding 5) I can understand the human need to assign blame, and there certainly were serious mistakes made. CCP is also an easy target due to so many previous lies and coverups. But look the other way - who can honestly point at another country that would have done a better job stopping this virus? If so which country would that be? China shut down a whole province when there were still less than a hundred new cases per day. The rest of the world watched what happened in Wuhan yet many countries are still not doing enough today despite having long passed the number of known cases where Wuhan were when they implemented a lock down. It looks like China will be able to stop the virus spreading within its own borders. Is it really right for another nation to blame China for a virus that they themselves are unable/unwilling to stop despite having had much longer warning about, and much better understanding of than China had when they launched into battle.
Which countries would have done a better job stopping this virus? South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Australia, New Zealand for starters
To BB Question, 'Without stoking anti-Chinese and broader anti-Asian sentiment' : I don't think you can! The Chinese propoganda organs will (some extent already) will say 1. Foreigners are the sources of new cases 2. That any assertion this is a 'Chinese Flu' or 'Wuhan Flu' is racist. You could probably realistically find a way to make the distinction and put PRC to task for coverups and mishandling...but their propganda organs will work overtime to make it seem that its racist / targeted / foreigners are holding back China's rise etc., As for HOW coubtries can make China be responsible. We can only attempt with sanctions, their removal from organs like WHO or internal international organizations asserting penalties. But its been 30 some years now China has 'been apart of intl comminity' starting in 1979 with their ascension to UN and they are not reaponsible now - they never will be. They do not care about the world or being a responsible stakeholder - only their success (at the expense of everyone else)
True! There are a few places that could have done better, and indeed have already done a great job responding to the virus. Interestingly all of them in Asia.
Regarding 4) I think 14 days central quarantine will become mandatory in all provinces, and some smaller airports may shut their international flights. Could imagine land borders being shut as well. I doubt a complete ban on international travel will be needed. The quarantine should be enough to significantly reduce incoming tourists and business people.
As for 7, first off if anything we might want to be more worried about the rest of the world being too conditioned to assume the opposite of what Beijing said must be true and the potential outcome of that, than your standard Joe Smith watching a China Daily video on facebook and believing that, I find it pretty hard to believe anyone can say with a straight face that would happen. Secondly, the line between censoring false information with censorship is very VERY thin, and these things can easily be abused, in Taiwan, the DPP and their associated groups routinely abuse these functions on facebook against posters or groups who aren't aligned politically with them. They're banned or taken off much MUCH more often than the other way around.
This turns out to be a very long and protracted period off economic and ‘virus pandemic’...
Its been a very long time since something happens so globally and indiscriminately across countries, classes, religions- there is something humbling and unifying about it....
What would it take for the world and us a community to reframe the narrative? How to make this a turning point where it will require more collaboration and co-operation? For how long does it have to become darker before it gets brighter again?
In the search of an ‘external enemy’ to help galvanize - climate urgency didn’t do it; is Covid-19 simply not lethal enough for people to realize we are all in this together?
I like the notion of the whole world uniting to fight a common enemy. Unfortunately nothing is pointing in that direction so far. On the contrary we have seen fear split people apart, both inside China with some of the crazy things that we have seen videos of, and from outside directed at Chinese people. I think it has to do with the way the virus invisibly transmits from person to person, fear of strangers seems like a logical response to such enemy.
I think your comment is really valid. It could be so that we have been waiting for that the growth of the economies and wealth must come to a point where there is a bounce back. When the virus came it has been the trigger for us to question so many things that we take for granted and the stock market is overreacting so when drawing the conclusions after it is all settled, we have learnt a lot and hopefully become a bit more humble in our way of living.
One problem with this narrative is that different actors bear different levels of responsibility. Most importantly, the CCP (following up on question 5). This is not an external shock with no agent to bear responsibility like a natural disaster. I would take COVID-19 to show that bad governance, even on seemingly domestic policy questions, is not an issue that is internal to nation states. The world clearly has been affected by the CCP’s decision making
At the very least, it would take Donald Trump losing reelection, but even then it's hardly enough, I would kind of hope Xi's generation of the last red guards manage to not actually run China into their 80s, but make some sort of reasonably organized transition, I do think lost in all this is all these people talking about how engagement failed with China when the generation that actually engaged with the West has not even really been allowed to run the show yet is highly dubious at best. how about we actually see what a China run by the post Mao generation actually look like before making any sweeping conclusions?
supposedly he was to step down in the next party congress 2 years from now, but obviously with the rules changes most people seem to assume he would stay on, but there's also nothing in there that says he must stay on either. Eitherway he's born in the 50s, he was already well into his 20s when Mao died, I think it's fair to say his world view is very different from say, a random Chinese who's in his early 30s now after a few years in the US.
Can and will the SCMP or other news media rise to the occasion as they would have in the past? Is the Straits Times still allowed free access in China?
I have read SCMP on a regular basis since around the time Jack Ma bought it. I felt that outside of the editorial section it was a pretty decent press organization until recently, with the Hong Kong protests being a surprising high point with good, objective and informative coverage all Summer and Fall. Their Coronavirus coverage has not been good at all, mostly reprinting State media press releases and human interest stuff from Hong Kong. I think they experience the same issues foreign organizations do trying to report from the Mainland.
If anyone can be said to have shown some backbone in this crisis, it's Caixin, but they have had to pull lots of stories due to CCP pressure as well.
Sigh. I remember reading SCMP during Bo Xilai days - In China, HK, and online from US. I kept wondering if they would get shut down. Instead they got bought. Sigh again.
Also, it might just be me living here, but the noise of a military attack on Taiwan is growing ever louder in some of the Mainland social medias and even by American think tank types, so.... also we had 27 new case today, as it turns out trusting Japan and Turkey isn't THAT much wiser than not trusting Beijing when it comes to fighting virus. panic buying is picking up in Taiwan as well, and the government though they've generally done a good job (perhaps with a bit of luck and unfortuantely politics as well.) is starting to contradict itself more
I've been thinking the same thing of late. I think this is the best chance China is going to have for the remainder of President Xi's life (call it ~20 years or so?) to take Taiwan.
1) The failure of one country two systems in HK has made that model super unattractive to the Taiwanese people and their attitudes have hardened towards the mainland, so a political solution to Xi's Taiwan problem is very unlikely in the next 20 years.
2) The US is in lockdown and Trump's already strong isolationist tendencies are heightened by the crisis, and frankly he already appears to be panicky. I think he would find it near impossible to commit US troops to defend Taiwan at a time like this. Furthermore, China is unlikely to achieve clear military superiority over the US in Xi's lifetime. No one else is in a material position to intervene.
3) If Taiwan knows the US will not come to their aid, they're unlikely to even put up much of a fight if given a "choice" of one country two systems vs full scale invasion.
Point 4. The larger question is, At what point does the rate of infection align with the medical capacity? The shutdown in the US is being done to "flatten the curve" to bring demand in line with capacity, but the expectation remains that there will be significant ongoing infection. I have heard that a Harvard study says that 20-60% of the population needs to go through the infection before the transmission rate drops to the level of other similar diseases. If this is so, all the shutdown in China has done (and all it will do here) is flatten the curve, not eliminate the disease. Accordingly, what we see in Hong Kong and Taiwan is not an aberration, but a natural outcome. There is no reason to think that China will be exempt from this or that the only future cases there will be imported. This situation I think puts Xi and the CCP at some risk having declared a rather premature victory.
But you're kind of ignoring that over time immunity builds up, there's a lot of people who got this and didn't show symptoms, and will be more immuned to the diease going forward, once you get to a certainly mass of the population who has that, then the diease will no longer be as much of a threat, at least until it comes up with a very significant mutation, i think it's fair to say that whatever you think the stats in China is, it's almost a certainty that as of today, there are more people in China with immunity to Sars-Cov2 than anywhere else in the world (is it enough though, is that question.)
I agree, but at the moment in China the only place that might have that level of immunity is Wuhan and Hubei unless one is going to assume that an extraordinarily large percent of the population when exposed shows no symptoms or does not require hospitalization. But, if this is the true situation then the numbers are all but meaningless since the true infection rate in Hubei will likely never be known.
But if the rate of infection needed to buy a level of immunity that renders the virus non-threatening (at least from a medical capacity/treatment point of view) is 20%, I do not believe that any country has reached that threshold and thus there remains the ongoing threat of future spikes in cases of the virus.
Certainly beyond my knowledge to judge what is enough or not, but I'd suspect all of China will now be super high alert for the foreseeable months even with reopening.
4. The data about 0 new cases is simply not true and it's astounding that Western media has blindly bought into this and promoted headlines suggesting authoritarianism is better than democracy. This does not take into account that thousands are not getting to hospitals and dying in quarantine (since you have to get to the hospital to be tested in most cases) nor does it account for the collateral damage, that is, thousands who are dying because they can't get to the hospital for chemo, diabetes treatment, injuries, etc. Is the US turning away its regular diabetes or cancer patients because they are prioritizing stopping the virus? I ask that seriously. Because that must be counted into the data.
5. In theory the free market will naturally correct for over-investment of trust in China by companies pulling their investments out. I'm not overly optimistic on this correction given that China has well-developed supply chain lines and plethora of cheap labor. It's noteworthy that Trump has an executive order going to pull out a lot of big pharma operations from China -- probably the reason China is retaliating by accusing the US of creating the virus.
7. Yes absolutely. Kick them off Twitter. The "wild west" version of the internet which has a systematic advantage to motivated disinformation spreaders does not have a place in the modern world.
Do you have sourced data for your statement that there are thousands still dying? I live in Guangdong and this week the authorities finally took away the fences from around my village. My colleagues from Hubei province were also allowed to return this week, after being under complete lockdown (cannot even leave the apartment) for 8 weeks.
I trust nothing the CPC says, and i think it's shameful that they're crowing so loudly about their "victory" over a disaster of their own making, but there's no question that compared to 3 or 4 weeks ago, things here are a lot more relaxed.
For sure it's better than a few weeks ago. I've been scouring for collective data but as far as I can tell it doesn't exist. I hear from friends in China and also see posts online of people begging for help because their parents are being turned away from hospitals because they aren't COVID patients. I retract using the phrase "thousands" because I can't back that up, but if you imagine that 1 person is being turned away from every hospital in China, that's a lot of people.
You touched on something that worries me, and that is how this virus has just made the CPC crack down even harder on the internet and what little free (foreign) press was still allowed to operate in the country.
We can get a glimpse of what's going on around the rest of the country via personal accounts, but without any reporters left to fact-check, we can't be sure what we see is representative. Which, of course, is exactly what Xi wants. Well-researched articles are harder to discredit than social media posts and hearsay.
Bill, on your question 6 on the Chinese staff of American news organizations: I'd want to know more of the details before deciding what should be done. But it's at least worth pointing out that Xinhua and People's Daily bureaus in Washington and other American cities do operate with the help and staff of American citizens -- and Chinese TV operations here definitely do, too.
5. To what extent is the US effort to blame China resonating in other countries--especially US allies--or viewed as a distraction that harms cooperation?
I doubt there is much sympathy for either US or Chinese efforts to blame the other for the origin of the virus. Surely most countries laugh at the notion that US military athletes brought the virus to Wuhan. This morning CGTN speculated that the US withdrew from the 2001 Bioweapons Treaty in preparation for launching the new corona virus and also suggested that the US may have spread Swine Flu in China using drones. I think countries are disappointed that the US and China aren't collaborating to fight the epidemic and many are worried that intensifying acrimony could be harmful to their interests.
I would suggest that most countries hold the US to a higher standard than China, for good reasons, so generally, that the US have been doing quite a bit of sinking to Beijing's level these days seems to make some of Beijing's seemingly idiotic moves (like bringing up the Wuhan military games conspriacy theory.) look a lot smarter in retrospect
My sense is that Beijing thought that they had no other option. Once this virus has run its course in Western societies, we will get a better sense of its actual impact, mortality, and probably also get a good idea of what Beijing had to cover up in Wuhan.
While failures in the West deserve a full accounting of any incompetence, the negligence of Beijing is the proximate cause and they don't want this back on them when this is all over. But having high-level MFA reps stand up and try and promulgate wild theories now is a heavy salting of the earth in US-China relations, and if they had wanted to be seen as a responsible state actor, apologies followed by aid would have been welcomed by all.
Another missed opportunity by Beijing in favor of domestic repression and international aggression.
5. Replace statements and Tweets about "China/Chinese" with "CCP" or specific Chinese government bodies/leaders. That would require some homework, but they have paid staff to figure this stuff out.
6. Dramatically, loudly, and clearly--so that the world actually knows what's happening. Otherwise, it's probably not even worth responding at all.
7. Ideally, they would call his office and ask to talk with him.
Was wondering, why China hasn’t announced any strong fiscal or monetary stimulus to jumpstart its economy like in 2009? Does this mean that it is accepting much lower growth this year due to the virus? What is the lowest that the Party, and the country, accept?
Also, the Fed is probably not gong to establish USD swap lines with China. Does this mean that in the current environment where there’s a USD funding shortage, China would have to sell of some US treasuries to raise USD?
This might be a rather unpopular opinion, but I think Beijing has more or less "won" the Internet war since the late 90s, i.e the world has basically decided that their stance is correct, internet has borders, certainly Beijing's action has much to do with it, but given the looming war between the EU and the US on regulation of this aspect, and no one even really argues that SOME censorship (even if it's by another name such as "fighting disinformation") is basically standard, only question is where do countries and companies draw the line.
Maybe we should actually consider scenarios where basically the entire world financial system collapses. doesn't seem that hyperbolic these days given that the fed basically just did QE1+2+3 within 2 weeks and is just getting started.
given that California is literally shutting down, it seems to me that at least for the USA, that ship probably has sailed, again, maybe I'm being too pessimistic here
That would depend on President Trump. I see the New York City mayor and the state governor disagree on shutting down NYC, and other states are seeing disagreements between health authorities and governors, so I believe that state closures could be counter-manded by the president. He would have to come up with a complete other plan, and that is the difficult part.
By way of response to the first question, BJ will have to cope with both a significant and unique fall in domestic output/demand which will also have deleterious consequences for debt and balance sheet metrics for banks and borrowers, and a savage contraction in global growth, now in the ballpark of -3 to -5%, compared with a prior expectation of +3ish. That assumes H2 is not too bad.
Can't see any way BJ can compensate for this double whammy, and we should note that China et al can better anticipate V-shaped upturns when output/demand dip, than when it plunges as now.
What interests me is the politics of this economic hit, and whether finally, the scale of this shock is the catalyst for a sig correction in property valuations? If so, we should brace for even more 'interesting times'
I get that, what I mean is that if this gets beyond the "normal cycle downturn recession" level bad, then entirely different calculations and rules comes into play and a lot of assumptions get thrown out the window. i.e there's no need to worry about dollar denominated debt anymore in a world where global trade links basically broke
1. Who the heck knows, this has the potential to be REALLY REALLY bad, like worse than 1920s bad is not even that hyperbolic at this point because the dominos and leverage is simply much higher these days, though I suppose it would at least be within the range of fathom for China to return to a much more command system than the US? But honestly if it gets to that point real war (not just skrimishes) is almost a certainty
4. It seems unlikely that China will shut its borders. The situation should be an opportunity to strengthen the global power as well as stimulate consumption of domestic products that is in line with the strategy to become even more powerful and create wealth.
The inequity of being permitted to use WeChat and other social media to disseminate nonsense to the Chinese diaspora is a major problem. If WhatsApp Or Facebook can’t be in a China, then why is WeChat global? It’s also their key communication tool to permit them a sense that Chinese, everywhere, are still governed by the one China. Wechat has to be stopped. The first avenue would be standard legal practice - why are you disseminating lies in my country. Take them to court. But it has to be stopped also to provide a decent lever in future trade negotiations.
I would agree this is more or less mafia tactic by Beijing, the problem is that mafia exist in human society forever for a good reason. (not to mention the US can't exactly say with a straight face that they never engage in similar tactics, though rarely as obvious and egregious )
not to mention the odds of you getting everyone else you consider "on your side" on board seems really low, which raises a whoooole nother can of worm. such as if Japan just say no , are you going to ban LINE and NHK too?
it's a reasonable position to take, but the general problem with it has long been that you would more or less justify Beijing's action as being generally acceptable practice (this is sort of in line with what has happened with the journalist, certainly the US throwing out CCTV folks gives Beijing pretty ample cover. )
Yes but as WhatsApp, Facebook, Messenger, Zoom, Skype etc are banned in China, the Western World has nothing to lose from regulating WeChat out of existence in our own countries. Why do we want a messaging system, used to disseminate fake news, that is monitored and censored by Beijing, used in our countries? They’re going after TikTok. WeChat is the right target.
Again, the problem is you're bringing the US down the Beijing's level to some extent with these moves (and certainly give big time justification
and confirmation to Beijing's constituency), and I'll just put an honest opinion that Chinese American voters as an actual voting bloc is completely irrelevant in US politics ( not to mention plenty of the people you're describing aren't even actual US citizens. ) so the odds of Wechat based rumor actually impacting a major US election seems to be a questionable argument. As for some dumb shite like that Vancouver race where one of the candidate spread some crazy racist shite in Chinese, that doesn't really take wechat to pull off
I would add that during the Cold War (once we were past J. McCarthy), Radio Peking and Radio Moscow were never jammed, Mao's works were available through Progress Publishers in NY and later elsewhere, and Xinhua Shudian freely mailed propaganda and Mao buttons to those who sought them. They don't call it the Land of the Free for nothing. Let's not screw it up.
I was chatting to a PRC emigre taxi driver. He clearly got all of his news via WeChat, it was clearly all propaganda. We don’t need that in our midst. Likewise, WeChat is a monitoring tool for government - heavily policed, everything monitored. Why would we allow that in our countries? There have to be some standards laid out. So prosecute them for spreading fake news. Deny them the right to censor in our countries. Same approach as TikTok.
“ how do governments hold the PRC accountable without stoking anti-Chinese and broader anti-Asian sentiment?“ Perhaps the WHO or analogous int’l organization should promulgate “Best Practices for Transparency in Data Sharing on New Infections” that would include protections for scientists and doctors from retaliation and posting of data in publicly accessible websites. No names or nations need to be mentioned, but such a document could be a sort of mini-ICCPR for health data.
7. That's probably a step too far. There's enough organic pushback from populaces that the labeling of the comment as such would hurt the tool itself and lessen the efficacy of using it over time.
Additionally, the populations that would normally buy into such conspiracy theories 1. would already buy into the comment if they are already so inclined and 2. the labeling of the comment as fake would further entrench them into the belief.
2. Our firm is actively looking at raising cash to invest in our China operations. We work with a template where China is effectively coming out on top when compared to other markets. It may, in the mid-term, turn into a safe haven if PRC can figure everything policy wise. The 14days (x2) quarantines makes everything much more difficult, it's basically and Iron Wall, we must have our local team operates, while we support development here from a distance. Risk control has never been more important.
This doesn't directly touch on the questions, but I think it's fascinating how so many people who follow China predicted that Coronavirus would be a serious challenge to Xi and the Party, only for China to weather it relatively well compared to the US. In fact, it seems like it's going to hit the US a lot harder.
Folks, unfortunately, it's a bit early to declare victory over COVID-19 in China or elsewhere; as Joanne says, with the virus not controlled elsewhere, border closures and lockdowns will likely be with us for a number of months. Asymptomatic carriers will make indigenous infection a source of possible resurgence in China. Singapore and Hong Kong are retightening controls after cases have surged again this weekend.
On the economic front, border closure seems likely given how widespread COVID19 is becoming elsewhere. It is a natural corollary to sheltering in place.
On FDI, China was running a modest current account surplus. Net, it doesn't need FDI as a financing source for its imports. Assuming that China can manage the virus ahead of other nations, its investment and imports will rise relative to its saving and exports, pushing the current account into deficit. That will create a demand for foreign financing, either portfolio of direct foreign investment (and/or a depreciation of the yuan).
Will China get the financing? Probably, given that by assumption its economy will be preforming better than others and given the already announced plans of major market index providers to add/increase the weighting of China in stock and bond indices. New FDI, though, is likely to be moribund.
On politicians/governments and the blame game and the conflict over national or political interests and a global virus, this pandemic is bringing out the best and worst in governments and people. The contrast will get starker as the stress on society across various countries mounts. On Saturday Singapore, a model of fighting COVID-19, announced that it would no longer treat non-residents suffering from COVID-19. That is in essence saying that in Singapore should it be faced with rationing healthcare as Italy is today, nationality will weigh heavily on whether patients live or die. That is not a good sign for working collectively again a common enemy.
...and I'm not even a professional China expert! How is this possible?
I signed up for this community to seek truth from facts, to be truly objective, weight up possibilities, alternatives. This was a disappointment. @Bill, need your help!
Hmmm, you could see the likelihood massively rising too. China needs low unemployment to stay safe, if they hit a 20%+ unemployment level for the young, how long do you think the party will last? They have to deliver and I don't think they can do that with a domestic economy. They already face a lot of companies building out additional supply chains as this clears up.
5: given the news of Richard Burr today seem to put this question into a prospective ... but generally the governments will pursue, and the chace of it not spilling into overt racism against common chinese (or just east asians) seems to be zero, or more like negative
I'm a college counselor in Xi'an. We finally have some start dates for the spring semester. It is March 30 for high school senior 3 students, and April 7 for middle school grade 3 students (both grades have entrance examinations: gaokao and zhongkao respectively).
However, don't be fooled.
There is no start date yet for all other students (elementary, university, international programs, etc.) Will be interesting to see how the school situation here changes over the next couple weeks and if they are able to keep an outbreak from happening at a school.
How can I ask my Chinese friends to stop bestowing me with virus suppression tactics? I find them patronizing, condescending and obnoxious. I know the propaganda organs are pushing the idea that China needs to be the beacon of light to the rest of the world in the battle against this virus, and I’m not trying to humble or insult my chinese friends, but their lack of humility bugs the crap out of me.
5) and 7) Right now, every country is focussed on containing the pandemic and dealing with its fallout - both human and economic. Three months down the road, when the pandemic is hopefully under better control, i fear that the blame games will start in earnest. While we can hope for saner heads to prevail, the US is going through an election year and this pandemic has the potential for upsetting the incumbent's odds - the response to which may go make this debate get more heated. Information is very local - i very much doubt that the CCP will be able to materially influence the common man's views about the source of the virus and i doubt that the democrats would want to take the CCP line either..
6. The way that the Chinese government controls who can work for foreign media organizations, NGOs (when they were actually allowed to operate), and even locally hired staff for foreign consulates and embassies is a fact of life little understood by people who have never worked in China. While not as restrictive as it was in the past, it was clear during my time there that the locals who worked closely around myself and my staff were required to maintain a line of communication with Chinese government (security) officials regarding our activities as needed. Having to balance that against their in many cases sincere desire to do their job properly and effectively was a huge burden to ask them to carry. To see the Chinese govt then turn around and punish these individuals over something they have no control over just underlines how petty this regime really is.
As far as a response, this is where we hold the line on free speech. Reciprocity is fine but I think at this point we should probably walk away from this little back and forth rather than keep clamping down on the soon to be vestigial Chinese media operation in the States. The salad days of 2014-2016 where American newspapers thoughtlessly reprinted Global Times nonsense are probably gone forever anyway.
To all those saying "more cooperation now": Aren't transparency, consistency, tolerance for different views, and willingness to compromise the prerequisite for any type of trust and cooperation in modern society?
How do you cooperate with a regime which has none of these and which is so obsessed with doublespeak (e.g. "中国的民主是一种全过程的民主") and all those crazy authoritarian stuff, the only logic of which is "more coercion, more control, and more power"? And with the emperor and his underlings increasing their grip on the private sector and private citizens, how would it be more feasible for cooperation to emerge even out of "spontaneous order" where no initiative or support from the government is required?
This is not a "China" vs. "US" issue. This looks more and more like a "communist authoritarianism combined with a pre-modern social fabric that has a strong flavor of xenophobia/racism" vs. "the modern world" issue.
Re Amb Max Baucus: "I feel strongly ....This is a crisis...Both US and China were negligent..." diplomatic considerations may justify the even-handedness, so long as we privately recall that one was negligent, and the other brutishly repressive
On 5), surely all that PRC needs to do is to show the case graph in China and Europe/America separately since January, with the long period of hardly nothing in the latter and the explosion in recent weeks that started with the End of the Chinese crisis, superimposed with timings of border closures, what WHO was saying before and during those weeks and what Western Europe and North America were doing at the same time.
There is no question in my mind where the failures have been. First one at the beginning and the second one, the 2nd half of Feb and early March. The first one is arguably excuseable. The second, absolutely not! As for accountability, each government needs to be held accountable to their own people. Shifting the blame to jonhnny foreigners simply wont do.
I hope the world is civilised enough in the 21st century not to resort to politics/race based scapegoating in the face of something as serious and universal as this. We should all be big and mature enugh to admit to and learn from mistakes. Alas, so far, there s no sign of it.
Meanwhile, having escaped Switzerland (10x the infection density of China), am hiding in the english countryside, wondering if the whole thing s going to solve Western Europe's long term fiscal and demographic problem. Perish the thought? Has Chicom been too naive about this virus?!
Self isolation fever (not literally, yet)?
mossroberts Sino-US issues are difficult and involve both govts, not primarily other countries. I wouldn’t conflate bilateral tensions with global problems, though it’s a common device of argument. It’s incumbent on both Leviathans to work together as Baucus rightly urges, neither behaving as if it’s superior to the other. (Such different historical circumstances!)
5. I think the deterioration in US China relations has to be seen as a continuum. According to Gallup polling the impression US Citizens have vis a vis China has plunged to post-Tiananmen levels in just the last few years. U.S. politicians have seized on this as a foreign policy issue and a feedback loop has been created. I have seen ample evidence this trend is occurring in many other countries at the same time.
It’s not inevitable that a health crisis, even a poorly managed one, can harm a country’s global image and foreign relations. There was no serious debate about “holding the DRC accountable” after Ebola, the international community just handled it the way many wish they would handle the current crisis. So why are we adopting this attitude toward China? And why did they accurately predict this would happen and rush forward with their own disinformation campaign to counteract it? Again, it’s the continuum. This crisis, leaving aside the obvious similarities to things like SARS, is simply another chapter from the same playbook that the CCP always uses (deny, suppress, censor, spread disinformation, blame foreigners, take credit for victory over disaster they created or exacerbated).
And therefore the debate isn’t really about responsibility for this pandemic, but rather accountability for a system of authoritarian control that increasingly presents an existential threat not just to its own citizens, but also to all people across the entire world. The answer is in all cases and circumstances the same. Transparency, accountability, and if not democratic reforms inside China than at least an honest attempt to adhere to international norms in trade, diplomacy, and public health. The same things that are always promised but somehow never actually delivered.
How should non-PRC employers position their foreign employees and dependents in China? As James Palmer said this week in a Foreign Policy email, "The warning signs are flashing bright red for foreigners in China, who should, at a minimum, have an exit strategy—and would be wise to use it soon..."
This is less about the virus, more about how the CCP will treat foreigners in the foreseeable future.
Initial suggestions:
- revise, update, and simplify evacuation plans, which are usually unwieldy and outdated
- contract with a service that can charter flights in and out on short notice
Let Nature explain the science, not the geopolitics. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00758-2?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=cf7fda55aa-briefing-dy-20200319&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-cf7fda55aa-43758653
About (6): The assistants are sometimes daring individuals. However, some of the CVs journalists receive from job applicants are simply too good to be true. Generally, employees of foreign journalists in China need to be considered as having been compromised.
Overall, there is a up to a handful of minders for each foreign journalist in China.
For good measure, the Chinese embassies abroad collect everything that is published about China in their respective locations and report back to Beijing. Nothing escapes their zeal, everything a journalist has published is in her/his file.
Edged into communists mindset is, that they are besieged by hostile foreign forces. This paranoia is actually an important pillar, lack of which would cause severe cracks in their ideological structure. They absolutely can't conceive, that there is no guiding 'black hand' in the background, totally unthinkable.
On "our" side, journalism has changed. While in the 1980s, when asked what their purpose was, journalists tended to answer 'fair and true reporting'. In the 2000s this changed to 'uncovering scandals'. That is certainly a result of competitive pressures on the media, that was not as strong in the 1980s.
So here we have super-charged media, clashing with a hyper-paranoid regime. This can't go well.
This is not to say, that foreign correspondents should resign themselves to writing only about "lush places" in China, but relations used to be better and may be our media should think about, if there is something they could do to de-escalate, without sacrificing journalistic principles.
“Generally, employees of foreign journalists in China need to be considered as having been compromised.”
Knowing several such people myself, this just isn’t true. It’s offensive, even. These people stick their necks out with no hope of recognition or career advancement. They don’t deserve such baseless accusations.
I take exception at the term "baseless". Who are you to go around accusing people of saying something baseless? I said "generally", which certainly means exceptions apply. The experiences of 2 long time journalists and friends in Beijing incl. the godfather of my son are a reminder, that you can't be careful enough.
China's national CDC contacted WHO one day after it was fully informed of the nature of the virus on 12/30. Where's the alleged cover up?
There were efforts to suppress information and to keep the public in the dark; these efforts clearly seem to have been perpetrated by officials with all orders of government throughout the country. As for the notification to the WHO, what wasn't shared (and may not have been widely understood) was the ability of COVID-19 (the SARS-like virus identified as the time) to be transmitted from person-to-person.
Let's not forget, as well, that the PRC propaganda has been playing up the actions of the authorities in Wuhan--including the local public security organs--to punish those, including the late Dr Li Wenliang--who had disseminated information about what the virus was doing to people. The reason? They had not been authorized to disseminate that information.
Sounds like a cover up to me (and to officials in Beijing, based on what they've been saying).
About (6): Will this basically backfire and fuel the discontent of information savvy middle class + in China? There has been a societal semblance in China that things are different but similar enough to the Western world. One can see that with the McDonalds, or more importantly the ubiquitous Starbucks in all the major cities. The press was also part of it, and having the big three pushed out there will no longer be the patina of reasonableness that comes from, these major news organizations covering China. The absurdity and starkness of official media outlets will become more and more clear. It's hopefully just another crack in the armor for what is massive silent discontent which for many of us involved in China can see in our circles. The discontent that I see comes from the professional class, including entrepreneurs, who have accepted the raw deal of the CCP to set down ideals they had in 1989 and focus on making a fortune. This was ripped open during the initial response and muzzling in Wuhan obviously.
I think many of the younger folks already view official media with disinterest if not outright derision, but State propaganda has found a new life on social media where rumors and conspiracy theories can be pruned and nurtured by censors like a bonsai tree to guide opinion to just the right narrative to serve the party’s interests. Authoritarian regimes operate very effectively in this kind of media environment.
About (2): I don't know if from a sheer volume this will show up, but venture capital and private equity will be very active in China in 2020. Just like everything else is different since either the GFC (2008) or SARS (2003), innumerable firms have long-standing local teams in Beijing, Shanghai, and of course Hong Kong. Especially because many believe China will recover faster, economically, than the rest of the world and because the macro mega trends still favor China, there is a lot of interest and chatter about it. 2009, post GFC was one of the greatest years of foreign FDI VC investing into China. Of course a great deal of this capital will go into the VIE structure so not initially into China but surely the capital will get into China by the companies. The other point which is very different is the relative outperformance and robustness of the China domestic equity capital markets. Essentially with the capital account tightly managed, China is becoming an attractive closed-loop system for foreign investment.
Of course this does not address all the manufacturers who have already begun to pull out and relocate to other countries for cost reasons or the US-China conflict.
About (5): It does not matter why and where the epidemic originated. First and foremost, because it is already water under the bridge. Secondly, as we can see live before our eyes, any other nation - with not a single exception - would have been perfectly capable of the very same.
One issue that ought to be considered in this context is big-state control over UN organizations. A number of commentators have noted that the WHO waited an awfully long time before finally calling the thing a pandemic. That said, it was certainly quick to jump all over the EU member states (by wasting no time to call Europe the new epicentre of the pandemic). Recall the kid gloves approach the WHO took with China in January.
The WHO has also kept on telling states that imposing restrictions on movements through national borders was NOT the way to go, yet now we see every sensible politician in most states moving quickly to do just that. It has been exasperating to see how long it took some leaders to drop the nonsense about following the WHO line.
This has certainly been a collective failure, but some states have failed more than others. The WHO, as well, will probably come under great scrutiny when all is said and done.
About (2): In my observation a significant, if not the biggest part of China FDI are "recycled RMB". That is domestic enterprises, who invest in China through their own Hong Kong or BVI subsidiary, in order to get foreign investor status and related benefits, such as tax breaks et al. Therefore, I don't think FDI will head for zero.
In putting together balance of payments accounts, profits earned on past foreign investment is treating as a service outflow in the current account and new foreign direct investment in the financial account. Zero FDI then would need substantial capital repatriation, not simply an end to "new" investment.
Max Baucus. I feel strongly the US should not stoop to the blame game. This is a crises, not a common international squabble. Both US and China were negligent with poor initial responses. Rather we should look for opportunities to cooperate, even as difficult as that may be, as we did with another global health crises: Ebola. People want solutions. They don’t like listening to blame. Especially in a crises as great as this one.
Wait is this the US ambo?
It would be helpful if certain US politicians and news media commentators would drop the racist rhetoric, but when do we expect officials in China to apologize for the false narratives they have been floating?
The health crisis will be over sooner or later. What is needed now is exactly what you say, cooperation. Specifically China-Japan-US-EU cooperation, caused by the - possibly overblown - anti-virus measures. No single county can handle this economic mess on its own, it absolutely requires the hand-in-glove-coop of all the leading economies. If any of them still follows 'my country first', then the mess can't be tackled an we'll spiral down into an economic abyss.
Thanks AMB Baucus. Hopefully by working together countries (esp. US, China) can develop a rapid vaccine (e.g. DARPA has a program dedicated to this) within 9-12 months.
Yes, admitting the above - that both sides have made errors in initial responses - and then transitioning to opportunities to collaborate would certainly help. Admitting such mistakes. We are humans dealing with a new phenomenon in a new age - crucial to building trust and fostering collaborative path forward. Can both sides do this? Can the US lead by example?
How will this crisis end?
A) We all get a vaccination
B) The spread of the virus is contained (like SARS and Ebola)
C) It miraculously disappear as one president predicted
D) It goes away during the summer period and comes back in winter like the flu, and we simply stop thinking about it as a crisis.
Regarding point 2, as a startup technology investor, I see two issues. To the point you raise, no one is going to do 14 days in quarantine to do a deal (and probably 14 days on the other end when they return home). So given my need to interact in person with founders, that will kill travel to China until things normalize. The second point is more in line with the overreaction of the PRC in point 6 – given the way things are heading between the US and China, are the potential rewards worth the business (and personal) risks? Xi and the leadership seem to be so concerned about threats to Party supremacy that they are acting in ways that are clearly counter-productive and will worsen the FDI and general investment environment. My judgment is that the opportunities in Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia and Korea are great, the risks minimal, and they are far more enthusiastic about US capital (partly to offset Chinese pressure). So I and my company are not looking to China for the foreseeable future and perhaps ever.
Regarding points #5 and #7, I feel strongly that the USG and its allies should strongly push back against the disinformation campaigns out there by the PRC (and Russia) w/r to the origins of Coronavirus. This should be done with great thought and care, and without using potentially racist terms (e.g. Chinese virus, Wuhan virus) and by appealing to the PRC and other countries, as well as multilateral international organizations (e.g. WHO) to combat this pandemic. The science and epidemiology are so complex that working together may be the best and even only solution. This is how the world eradicated Smallpox in 1968.
'Wuhan Virus' is geographic- not racist. Reminds me of when Max Brooks' screenplay for movie World War Z was forced to redact the virus origin from Mainland China (originally in the book) but Brad Pitt's UN character had to speculate it was from other parts. Working together with PRC specifically on Corona may be impossible if disease response further reveals CCP ineptitude- I'm thinking of poor practice in pithing and incinerating lab animals in particular- that reveals Wuhan Infectious Disease Unit to be backward, embarrassing Xi and Deputies in the process.
....And admit mistakes. NY Governor Cuomo takes responsibility for his leadership actions (watch his press conferences). If this virus inadvertently escaped from the lab in Wuhan, just admit it and improve lab management. Better than cover ups that breed further mistrust.
Regarding 7) Yes they should, fake news and missinformation needs to be called out. If anyone has nothing to lose by standing up to China its Facebook and Twitter.
Social media wants a discussion-- any discussion --as unfortunately, this is how their revenue model works. Social media platforms rely on the churn of discussions and consequently the churn of advertising $$.
While the Lijian comment is a false statement, a quick “shallow” dive into the world of the alt-right and “Q” anon social media writings, will reveal the same baseless rantings on other subjects. And, if one is then going to point out that this disinformation was disseminated by PRC officials and media, I can only point to our own president and his sycophant following in the U.S. Senate.
Nothing about how social media works insists on personal responsibility for socially appropriate behavior.
Regarding 5) I can understand the human need to assign blame, and there certainly were serious mistakes made. CCP is also an easy target due to so many previous lies and coverups. But look the other way - who can honestly point at another country that would have done a better job stopping this virus? If so which country would that be? China shut down a whole province when there were still less than a hundred new cases per day. The rest of the world watched what happened in Wuhan yet many countries are still not doing enough today despite having long passed the number of known cases where Wuhan were when they implemented a lock down. It looks like China will be able to stop the virus spreading within its own borders. Is it really right for another nation to blame China for a virus that they themselves are unable/unwilling to stop despite having had much longer warning about, and much better understanding of than China had when they launched into battle.
Which countries would have done a better job stopping this virus? South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Australia, New Zealand for starters
To BB Question, 'Without stoking anti-Chinese and broader anti-Asian sentiment' : I don't think you can! The Chinese propoganda organs will (some extent already) will say 1. Foreigners are the sources of new cases 2. That any assertion this is a 'Chinese Flu' or 'Wuhan Flu' is racist. You could probably realistically find a way to make the distinction and put PRC to task for coverups and mishandling...but their propganda organs will work overtime to make it seem that its racist / targeted / foreigners are holding back China's rise etc., As for HOW coubtries can make China be responsible. We can only attempt with sanctions, their removal from organs like WHO or internal international organizations asserting penalties. But its been 30 some years now China has 'been apart of intl comminity' starting in 1979 with their ascension to UN and they are not reaponsible now - they never will be. They do not care about the world or being a responsible stakeholder - only their success (at the expense of everyone else)
Korea.
1. Much better hygiene overall
2. Much higher levels of testing and social compliance
3. First class tech and data management
4. Skilled technocratic government administration
5. Lots of self quarantining
True! There are a few places that could have done better, and indeed have already done a great job responding to the virus. Interestingly all of them in Asia.
Yes, Israel is in Asia
Remember they all had a wake up earlier w practice from SARS
6. And....Culture that loves speed and efficiency in everything
Regarding 4) I think 14 days central quarantine will become mandatory in all provinces, and some smaller airports may shut their international flights. Could imagine land borders being shut as well. I doubt a complete ban on international travel will be needed. The quarantine should be enough to significantly reduce incoming tourists and business people.
As for 7, first off if anything we might want to be more worried about the rest of the world being too conditioned to assume the opposite of what Beijing said must be true and the potential outcome of that, than your standard Joe Smith watching a China Daily video on facebook and believing that, I find it pretty hard to believe anyone can say with a straight face that would happen. Secondly, the line between censoring false information with censorship is very VERY thin, and these things can easily be abused, in Taiwan, the DPP and their associated groups routinely abuse these functions on facebook against posters or groups who aren't aligned politically with them. They're banned or taken off much MUCH more often than the other way around.
What if.....
This turns out to be a very long and protracted period off economic and ‘virus pandemic’...
Its been a very long time since something happens so globally and indiscriminately across countries, classes, religions- there is something humbling and unifying about it....
What would it take for the world and us a community to reframe the narrative? How to make this a turning point where it will require more collaboration and co-operation? For how long does it have to become darker before it gets brighter again?
In the search of an ‘external enemy’ to help galvanize - climate urgency didn’t do it; is Covid-19 simply not lethal enough for people to realize we are all in this together?
I like the notion of the whole world uniting to fight a common enemy. Unfortunately nothing is pointing in that direction so far. On the contrary we have seen fear split people apart, both inside China with some of the crazy things that we have seen videos of, and from outside directed at Chinese people. I think it has to do with the way the virus invisibly transmits from person to person, fear of strangers seems like a logical response to such enemy.
I think your comment is really valid. It could be so that we have been waiting for that the growth of the economies and wealth must come to a point where there is a bounce back. When the virus came it has been the trigger for us to question so many things that we take for granted and the stock market is overreacting so when drawing the conclusions after it is all settled, we have learnt a lot and hopefully become a bit more humble in our way of living.
One problem with this narrative is that different actors bear different levels of responsibility. Most importantly, the CCP (following up on question 5). This is not an external shock with no agent to bear responsibility like a natural disaster. I would take COVID-19 to show that bad governance, even on seemingly domestic policy questions, is not an issue that is internal to nation states. The world clearly has been affected by the CCP’s decision making
At the very least, it would take Donald Trump losing reelection, but even then it's hardly enough, I would kind of hope Xi's generation of the last red guards manage to not actually run China into their 80s, but make some sort of reasonably organized transition, I do think lost in all this is all these people talking about how engagement failed with China when the generation that actually engaged with the West has not even really been allowed to run the show yet is highly dubious at best. how about we actually see what a China run by the post Mao generation actually look like before making any sweeping conclusions?
Interesting point. How old is Xi? Realistically when will we see a China run by this post-Mao generation?
supposedly he was to step down in the next party congress 2 years from now, but obviously with the rules changes most people seem to assume he would stay on, but there's also nothing in there that says he must stay on either. Eitherway he's born in the 50s, he was already well into his 20s when Mao died, I think it's fair to say his world view is very different from say, a random Chinese who's in his early 30s now after a few years in the US.
Can and will the SCMP or other news media rise to the occasion as they would have in the past? Is the Straits Times still allowed free access in China?
I have read SCMP on a regular basis since around the time Jack Ma bought it. I felt that outside of the editorial section it was a pretty decent press organization until recently, with the Hong Kong protests being a surprising high point with good, objective and informative coverage all Summer and Fall. Their Coronavirus coverage has not been good at all, mostly reprinting State media press releases and human interest stuff from Hong Kong. I think they experience the same issues foreign organizations do trying to report from the Mainland.
If anyone can be said to have shown some backbone in this crisis, it's Caixin, but they have had to pull lots of stories due to CCP pressure as well.
Sigh. I remember reading SCMP during Bo Xilai days - In China, HK, and online from US. I kept wondering if they would get shut down. Instead they got bought. Sigh again.
You probably already know this, but SCMP is blocked in Mainland China.
Yes. I used to get it in hard copy a day late at the hotel where I stayed in Beijing. And I always wondered how they got their hands on it.
Also, it might just be me living here, but the noise of a military attack on Taiwan is growing ever louder in some of the Mainland social medias and even by American think tank types, so.... also we had 27 new case today, as it turns out trusting Japan and Turkey isn't THAT much wiser than not trusting Beijing when it comes to fighting virus. panic buying is picking up in Taiwan as well, and the government though they've generally done a good job (perhaps with a bit of luck and unfortuantely politics as well.) is starting to contradict itself more
I've been thinking the same thing of late. I think this is the best chance China is going to have for the remainder of President Xi's life (call it ~20 years or so?) to take Taiwan.
1) The failure of one country two systems in HK has made that model super unattractive to the Taiwanese people and their attitudes have hardened towards the mainland, so a political solution to Xi's Taiwan problem is very unlikely in the next 20 years.
2) The US is in lockdown and Trump's already strong isolationist tendencies are heightened by the crisis, and frankly he already appears to be panicky. I think he would find it near impossible to commit US troops to defend Taiwan at a time like this. Furthermore, China is unlikely to achieve clear military superiority over the US in Xi's lifetime. No one else is in a material position to intervene.
3) If Taiwan knows the US will not come to their aid, they're unlikely to even put up much of a fight if given a "choice" of one country two systems vs full scale invasion.
Point 4. The larger question is, At what point does the rate of infection align with the medical capacity? The shutdown in the US is being done to "flatten the curve" to bring demand in line with capacity, but the expectation remains that there will be significant ongoing infection. I have heard that a Harvard study says that 20-60% of the population needs to go through the infection before the transmission rate drops to the level of other similar diseases. If this is so, all the shutdown in China has done (and all it will do here) is flatten the curve, not eliminate the disease. Accordingly, what we see in Hong Kong and Taiwan is not an aberration, but a natural outcome. There is no reason to think that China will be exempt from this or that the only future cases there will be imported. This situation I think puts Xi and the CCP at some risk having declared a rather premature victory.
But you're kind of ignoring that over time immunity builds up, there's a lot of people who got this and didn't show symptoms, and will be more immuned to the diease going forward, once you get to a certainly mass of the population who has that, then the diease will no longer be as much of a threat, at least until it comes up with a very significant mutation, i think it's fair to say that whatever you think the stats in China is, it's almost a certainty that as of today, there are more people in China with immunity to Sars-Cov2 than anywhere else in the world (is it enough though, is that question.)
I agree, but at the moment in China the only place that might have that level of immunity is Wuhan and Hubei unless one is going to assume that an extraordinarily large percent of the population when exposed shows no symptoms or does not require hospitalization. But, if this is the true situation then the numbers are all but meaningless since the true infection rate in Hubei will likely never be known.
But if the rate of infection needed to buy a level of immunity that renders the virus non-threatening (at least from a medical capacity/treatment point of view) is 20%, I do not believe that any country has reached that threshold and thus there remains the ongoing threat of future spikes in cases of the virus.
Certainly beyond my knowledge to judge what is enough or not, but I'd suspect all of China will now be super high alert for the foreseeable months even with reopening.
Agreed. Ongoing management seems mandatory.
4. The data about 0 new cases is simply not true and it's astounding that Western media has blindly bought into this and promoted headlines suggesting authoritarianism is better than democracy. This does not take into account that thousands are not getting to hospitals and dying in quarantine (since you have to get to the hospital to be tested in most cases) nor does it account for the collateral damage, that is, thousands who are dying because they can't get to the hospital for chemo, diabetes treatment, injuries, etc. Is the US turning away its regular diabetes or cancer patients because they are prioritizing stopping the virus? I ask that seriously. Because that must be counted into the data.
5. In theory the free market will naturally correct for over-investment of trust in China by companies pulling their investments out. I'm not overly optimistic on this correction given that China has well-developed supply chain lines and plethora of cheap labor. It's noteworthy that Trump has an executive order going to pull out a lot of big pharma operations from China -- probably the reason China is retaliating by accusing the US of creating the virus.
7. Yes absolutely. Kick them off Twitter. The "wild west" version of the internet which has a systematic advantage to motivated disinformation spreaders does not have a place in the modern world.
Do you have sourced data for your statement that there are thousands still dying? I live in Guangdong and this week the authorities finally took away the fences from around my village. My colleagues from Hubei province were also allowed to return this week, after being under complete lockdown (cannot even leave the apartment) for 8 weeks.
I trust nothing the CPC says, and i think it's shameful that they're crowing so loudly about their "victory" over a disaster of their own making, but there's no question that compared to 3 or 4 weeks ago, things here are a lot more relaxed.
For sure it's better than a few weeks ago. I've been scouring for collective data but as far as I can tell it doesn't exist. I hear from friends in China and also see posts online of people begging for help because their parents are being turned away from hospitals because they aren't COVID patients. I retract using the phrase "thousands" because I can't back that up, but if you imagine that 1 person is being turned away from every hospital in China, that's a lot of people.
You touched on something that worries me, and that is how this virus has just made the CPC crack down even harder on the internet and what little free (foreign) press was still allowed to operate in the country.
We can get a glimpse of what's going on around the rest of the country via personal accounts, but without any reporters left to fact-check, we can't be sure what we see is representative. Which, of course, is exactly what Xi wants. Well-researched articles are harder to discredit than social media posts and hearsay.
Bill, on your question 6 on the Chinese staff of American news organizations: I'd want to know more of the details before deciding what should be done. But it's at least worth pointing out that Xinhua and People's Daily bureaus in Washington and other American cities do operate with the help and staff of American citizens -- and Chinese TV operations here definitely do, too.
5. To what extent is the US effort to blame China resonating in other countries--especially US allies--or viewed as a distraction that harms cooperation?
I doubt there is much sympathy for either US or Chinese efforts to blame the other for the origin of the virus. Surely most countries laugh at the notion that US military athletes brought the virus to Wuhan. This morning CGTN speculated that the US withdrew from the 2001 Bioweapons Treaty in preparation for launching the new corona virus and also suggested that the US may have spread Swine Flu in China using drones. I think countries are disappointed that the US and China aren't collaborating to fight the epidemic and many are worried that intensifying acrimony could be harmful to their interests.
I would suggest that most countries hold the US to a higher standard than China, for good reasons, so generally, that the US have been doing quite a bit of sinking to Beijing's level these days seems to make some of Beijing's seemingly idiotic moves (like bringing up the Wuhan military games conspriacy theory.) look a lot smarter in retrospect
My sense is that Beijing thought that they had no other option. Once this virus has run its course in Western societies, we will get a better sense of its actual impact, mortality, and probably also get a good idea of what Beijing had to cover up in Wuhan.
While failures in the West deserve a full accounting of any incompetence, the negligence of Beijing is the proximate cause and they don't want this back on them when this is all over. But having high-level MFA reps stand up and try and promulgate wild theories now is a heavy salting of the earth in US-China relations, and if they had wanted to be seen as a responsible state actor, apologies followed by aid would have been welcomed by all.
Another missed opportunity by Beijing in favor of domestic repression and international aggression.
5. Replace statements and Tweets about "China/Chinese" with "CCP" or specific Chinese government bodies/leaders. That would require some homework, but they have paid staff to figure this stuff out.
6. Dramatically, loudly, and clearly--so that the world actually knows what's happening. Otherwise, it's probably not even worth responding at all.
7. Ideally, they would call his office and ask to talk with him.
Was wondering, why China hasn’t announced any strong fiscal or monetary stimulus to jumpstart its economy like in 2009? Does this mean that it is accepting much lower growth this year due to the virus? What is the lowest that the Party, and the country, accept?
Also, the Fed is probably not gong to establish USD swap lines with China. Does this mean that in the current environment where there’s a USD funding shortage, China would have to sell of some US treasuries to raise USD?
This might be a rather unpopular opinion, but I think Beijing has more or less "won" the Internet war since the late 90s, i.e the world has basically decided that their stance is correct, internet has borders, certainly Beijing's action has much to do with it, but given the looming war between the EU and the US on regulation of this aspect, and no one even really argues that SOME censorship (even if it's by another name such as "fighting disinformation") is basically standard, only question is where do countries and companies draw the line.
Maybe we should actually consider scenarios where basically the entire world financial system collapses. doesn't seem that hyperbolic these days given that the fed basically just did QE1+2+3 within 2 weeks and is just getting started.
It appears to me that the people who disagree with this line of thinking are now starting to get organized and fight back.
fair point, it's certainly a standard pessimist logic here of "if I'm right I'm smart if i'm wrong then good things happened"
To me, it's all how you keep the medical system from being overwhelmed. My preference is not to wreck the economy in doing so.
given that California is literally shutting down, it seems to me that at least for the USA, that ship probably has sailed, again, maybe I'm being too pessimistic here
That would depend on President Trump. I see the New York City mayor and the state governor disagree on shutting down NYC, and other states are seeing disagreements between health authorities and governors, so I believe that state closures could be counter-manded by the president. He would have to come up with a complete other plan, and that is the difficult part.
By way of response to the first question, BJ will have to cope with both a significant and unique fall in domestic output/demand which will also have deleterious consequences for debt and balance sheet metrics for banks and borrowers, and a savage contraction in global growth, now in the ballpark of -3 to -5%, compared with a prior expectation of +3ish. That assumes H2 is not too bad.
Can't see any way BJ can compensate for this double whammy, and we should note that China et al can better anticipate V-shaped upturns when output/demand dip, than when it plunges as now.
What interests me is the politics of this economic hit, and whether finally, the scale of this shock is the catalyst for a sig correction in property valuations? If so, we should brace for even more 'interesting times'
The question is, does it matter if everyone else has the same problem?
I think it does. We will all have our crosses to bear, economically and politically
I get that, what I mean is that if this gets beyond the "normal cycle downturn recession" level bad, then entirely different calculations and rules comes into play and a lot of assumptions get thrown out the window. i.e there's no need to worry about dollar denominated debt anymore in a world where global trade links basically broke
1. Who the heck knows, this has the potential to be REALLY REALLY bad, like worse than 1920s bad is not even that hyperbolic at this point because the dominos and leverage is simply much higher these days, though I suppose it would at least be within the range of fathom for China to return to a much more command system than the US? But honestly if it gets to that point real war (not just skrimishes) is almost a certainty
4. It seems unlikely that China will shut its borders. The situation should be an opportunity to strengthen the global power as well as stimulate consumption of domestic products that is in line with the strategy to become even more powerful and create wealth.
The inequity of being permitted to use WeChat and other social media to disseminate nonsense to the Chinese diaspora is a major problem. If WhatsApp Or Facebook can’t be in a China, then why is WeChat global? It’s also their key communication tool to permit them a sense that Chinese, everywhere, are still governed by the one China. Wechat has to be stopped. The first avenue would be standard legal practice - why are you disseminating lies in my country. Take them to court. But it has to be stopped also to provide a decent lever in future trade negotiations.
I would agree this is more or less mafia tactic by Beijing, the problem is that mafia exist in human society forever for a good reason. (not to mention the US can't exactly say with a straight face that they never engage in similar tactics, though rarely as obvious and egregious )
not to mention the odds of you getting everyone else you consider "on your side" on board seems really low, which raises a whoooole nother can of worm. such as if Japan just say no , are you going to ban LINE and NHK too?
it's a reasonable position to take, but the general problem with it has long been that you would more or less justify Beijing's action as being generally acceptable practice (this is sort of in line with what has happened with the journalist, certainly the US throwing out CCTV folks gives Beijing pretty ample cover. )
Yes but as WhatsApp, Facebook, Messenger, Zoom, Skype etc are banned in China, the Western World has nothing to lose from regulating WeChat out of existence in our own countries. Why do we want a messaging system, used to disseminate fake news, that is monitored and censored by Beijing, used in our countries? They’re going after TikTok. WeChat is the right target.
Again, the problem is you're bringing the US down the Beijing's level to some extent with these moves (and certainly give big time justification
and confirmation to Beijing's constituency), and I'll just put an honest opinion that Chinese American voters as an actual voting bloc is completely irrelevant in US politics ( not to mention plenty of the people you're describing aren't even actual US citizens. ) so the odds of Wechat based rumor actually impacting a major US election seems to be a questionable argument. As for some dumb shite like that Vancouver race where one of the candidate spread some crazy racist shite in Chinese, that doesn't really take wechat to pull off
I would add that during the Cold War (once we were past J. McCarthy), Radio Peking and Radio Moscow were never jammed, Mao's works were available through Progress Publishers in NY and later elsewhere, and Xinhua Shudian freely mailed propaganda and Mao buttons to those who sought them. They don't call it the Land of the Free for nothing. Let's not screw it up.
I was chatting to a PRC emigre taxi driver. He clearly got all of his news via WeChat, it was clearly all propaganda. We don’t need that in our midst. Likewise, WeChat is a monitoring tool for government - heavily policed, everything monitored. Why would we allow that in our countries? There have to be some standards laid out. So prosecute them for spreading fake news. Deny them the right to censor in our countries. Same approach as TikTok.
In answer to 5, 6 and 7.
6 is the roughest question to answer, given that is where the sovereignty versus universality seem to be most difficult point of contention
“ how do governments hold the PRC accountable without stoking anti-Chinese and broader anti-Asian sentiment?“ Perhaps the WHO or analogous int’l organization should promulgate “Best Practices for Transparency in Data Sharing on New Infections” that would include protections for scientists and doctors from retaliation and posting of data in publicly accessible websites. No names or nations need to be mentioned, but such a document could be a sort of mini-ICCPR for health data.
7. That's probably a step too far. There's enough organic pushback from populaces that the labeling of the comment as such would hurt the tool itself and lessen the efficacy of using it over time.
Additionally, the populations that would normally buy into such conspiracy theories 1. would already buy into the comment if they are already so inclined and 2. the labeling of the comment as fake would further entrench them into the belief.
2. Our firm is actively looking at raising cash to invest in our China operations. We work with a template where China is effectively coming out on top when compared to other markets. It may, in the mid-term, turn into a safe haven if PRC can figure everything policy wise. The 14days (x2) quarantines makes everything much more difficult, it's basically and Iron Wall, we must have our local team operates, while we support development here from a distance. Risk control has never been more important.
This doesn't directly touch on the questions, but I think it's fascinating how so many people who follow China predicted that Coronavirus would be a serious challenge to Xi and the Party, only for China to weather it relatively well compared to the US. In fact, it seems like it's going to hit the US a lot harder.
Folks, unfortunately, it's a bit early to declare victory over COVID-19 in China or elsewhere; as Joanne says, with the virus not controlled elsewhere, border closures and lockdowns will likely be with us for a number of months. Asymptomatic carriers will make indigenous infection a source of possible resurgence in China. Singapore and Hong Kong are retightening controls after cases have surged again this weekend.
On the economic front, border closure seems likely given how widespread COVID19 is becoming elsewhere. It is a natural corollary to sheltering in place.
On FDI, China was running a modest current account surplus. Net, it doesn't need FDI as a financing source for its imports. Assuming that China can manage the virus ahead of other nations, its investment and imports will rise relative to its saving and exports, pushing the current account into deficit. That will create a demand for foreign financing, either portfolio of direct foreign investment (and/or a depreciation of the yuan).
Will China get the financing? Probably, given that by assumption its economy will be preforming better than others and given the already announced plans of major market index providers to add/increase the weighting of China in stock and bond indices. New FDI, though, is likely to be moribund.
On politicians/governments and the blame game and the conflict over national or political interests and a global virus, this pandemic is bringing out the best and worst in governments and people. The contrast will get starker as the stress on society across various countries mounts. On Saturday Singapore, a model of fighting COVID-19, announced that it would no longer treat non-residents suffering from COVID-19. That is in essence saying that in Singapore should it be faced with rationing healthcare as Italy is today, nationality will weigh heavily on whether patients live or die. That is not a good sign for working collectively again a common enemy.
The second order effects of the virus, ie the economic impact, mean it’s too soon to say China has weathered this well, IMHO.
I had that same thought and posted back on a Sinocism open discussion in mid Feb where the discussion was IMHO one-sided. I posted this: https://sinocism.com/p/open-discussion-on-sinocism-starts/comments?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjoxMDQ5MTA4LCJwb3N0X2lkIjoyODY4MzgsIl8iOiJ5UndoZSIsImlhdCI6MTU4MjM2NDc4MywiZXhwIjoxNTgyMzY4MzgzLCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMiIsInN1YiI6InBvc3QtcmVhY3Rpb24ifQ.O2DUNy84NxReUSCdSdG7NznyITP5K2Oiws8RDf_JCBo#comment-86783
...and I'm not even a professional China expert! How is this possible?
I signed up for this community to seek truth from facts, to be truly objective, weight up possibilities, alternatives. This was a disappointment. @Bill, need your help!
Likelihood of Phase II talks are diminishing by the day, but is likelihood of backing out of Phase I rising?
Hmmm, you could see the likelihood massively rising too. China needs low unemployment to stay safe, if they hit a 20%+ unemployment level for the young, how long do you think the party will last? They have to deliver and I don't think they can do that with a domestic economy. They already face a lot of companies building out additional supply chains as this clears up.
This is just one of those old sayings. Who knows. No one.
does it even matter if the entire global supply chain / finance system collapse?
Well said. Markets are already in turmoil, supply chains disrupted, but if Phase I fails, what state will we be in when things begin to pick up?
Yes! It matters!
5: given the news of Richard Burr today seem to put this question into a prospective ... but generally the governments will pursue, and the chace of it not spilling into overt racism against common chinese (or just east asians) seems to be zero, or more like negative
5. "Holding Beijing Accountable For The Coronavirus Is Not Racist" https://www.jpolrisk.com/holding-beijing-accountable-for-the-coronavirus-is-not-racist/?fbclid=IwAR0jf9ZgK4uyVbj8zdH21-E3kxUOdBRaQTbxcDZAOEr7RnvN4Rt7cOmdXC8&__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=e2701637f855f2980ab6d89d049c4d4d160183bc-1584708975-0-AYXW" FdwDCeEurJXfH37LvmJUUZKFQOrjBiPwJrFJxxtjQ3QOVXqnhpySQW6Iz5639AEvv-8gA_wbYFgmYX0muALnTlBoN9wG-bOWRpHlu7g0ggCkyqifTcymMIFlu_y4RPH1oCrUAwYaWot8cxjv7H7zOMWdy41owSx7T_s3eldRM6EEH_lr8nINY4D9MwcMFr2q8GQSdoS4CULuBIVup_Ju1RKGVdqR1IxxY24_Mgas2n4Ah3YAemmnS43hg1NhmdDRJ6G5aGMTVsCmdaA1Fy3leWg2doL7gFWPH-UXfY8G_LDzB1a03RwPm4Ol22lLyq6zPFehAJbM7EO24FB7TDhX_5wwh4q08lUxScLVJ2FrJURWFo_71gZyoCYhRi-B9b5lLuh6G11EB-mON_Cz99SQrY7KborToJeUc15P74SB0LLb4aXNb4GJ-10RPnadew