I think it is safe to say now that the FT article implying the KMT was about to drop the 1992 Consensus was too firm and premature. The article took comments made by candidate Johnny Chiang Chi-chen during the campaign for the KMT Chair by-election and ran with them. But past KMT proposals to reconsider the 1992 Consensus were always mainly about repackaging the same content. It is still to be seen if Chiang will actually get to change the policy on Cross-Strait relations.
First of all, a lot of the reporting left out that this was a by-election to fill the remaining one year of Wu Den-yih’s term. We still have to wait and see who wins the regular election after that.
Secondly, important constituencies have already spoken out against dropping the 1992 Consensus. Former Taiwan President and elite Blue Camp Mainlander par excellence Ma Ying-jeou has already warned against it. The Chinese side also opposes it, as was made clear by the Xinhua editorial about Chiang’s victory. Some of Han Kuo-yu’s presidential campaign used it only last January and no matter how unrepresentative of the wider public their views are, the deep blue faction that still wields so much power in the KMT is unlikely to give in.
Thirdly, the KMT has nothing to replace the 1992 Consensus with. Beijing will not accept a replacement. Its whole election play is to claim that only the KMT can guarantee stable relations with Beijing and that the 1992 Consensus will bring economic growth. Those who want formal links with China are a shrinking minority, but they form the core voter base of the KMT and they cannot afford to give up that base when the party has little young blood and is facing Ko Wen-je’s TPP on the light blue side already offering an affirmation Taiwanese sovereignty. (And the dying New Party on the deep Blue side calling for unification.) The deep blue base wants at least the ambiguity of the 1992 Consensus.
If those who want to abolish the 1992 Consensus in the KMT platform win the day, I would expect a split or at least a significant defection from the party.
Oh come on Bill. "Now it's not the time for apportioning blame," but this is recession is "caused by CCP mismanagement".
I think it is safe to say now that the FT article implying the KMT was about to drop the 1992 Consensus was too firm and premature. The article took comments made by candidate Johnny Chiang Chi-chen during the campaign for the KMT Chair by-election and ran with them. But past KMT proposals to reconsider the 1992 Consensus were always mainly about repackaging the same content. It is still to be seen if Chiang will actually get to change the policy on Cross-Strait relations.
First of all, a lot of the reporting left out that this was a by-election to fill the remaining one year of Wu Den-yih’s term. We still have to wait and see who wins the regular election after that.
Secondly, important constituencies have already spoken out against dropping the 1992 Consensus. Former Taiwan President and elite Blue Camp Mainlander par excellence Ma Ying-jeou has already warned against it. The Chinese side also opposes it, as was made clear by the Xinhua editorial about Chiang’s victory. Some of Han Kuo-yu’s presidential campaign used it only last January and no matter how unrepresentative of the wider public their views are, the deep blue faction that still wields so much power in the KMT is unlikely to give in.
Thirdly, the KMT has nothing to replace the 1992 Consensus with. Beijing will not accept a replacement. Its whole election play is to claim that only the KMT can guarantee stable relations with Beijing and that the 1992 Consensus will bring economic growth. Those who want formal links with China are a shrinking minority, but they form the core voter base of the KMT and they cannot afford to give up that base when the party has little young blood and is facing Ko Wen-je’s TPP on the light blue side already offering an affirmation Taiwanese sovereignty. (And the dying New Party on the deep Blue side calling for unification.) The deep blue base wants at least the ambiguity of the 1992 Consensus.
If those who want to abolish the 1992 Consensus in the KMT platform win the day, I would expect a split or at least a significant defection from the party.