On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with news of more raids on Western corporate intelligence firms, investors losing access to Wind Information Co., a reported uptick in foreigners facing exit bans, and the continuing conflict between business-friendly rhetoric and what Xi's security services are doing on the ground. Then: Capital flight to Singapore, various theories to explain the timing of Xi's call to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and head-scratching jargon from the Chinese readout. At the end: The dynamics between India, Pakistan and China, the US strategy with India, and a question about decoupling yields discussion of Apple, Tesla and the burgeoning EV industry in China.
The raids and even the bond disappearance are I believe Xi testing the balance of security and development. China has to balance embracing capitalism to get out of the pandemic and supply chain issues while dealing with the Ukraine-Russia war. Xi is subtly trying to send signals that he’s still in charge but hope that investment doesn’t stop because he likely has information on the Ukraine-Russia situation that forced him to make a move, I doubt the diplomat to France “made a mistake” and instead was told to look like he “made a mistake” that then Xi has to “clean up” to be able to look calculating and decisive to try to see if he can achieve his goals. All of this is economic and societal for China. For thousands of years since Zhuge Liang “Nominal rule of the Monarch and direct rule of the Chancellor” were vital to China until Xi tried to combine both. Xi is sticking to old tactics in a post pandemic world, but the winds shifted already and he’s still using “fire,” Xi is forcing the old tactics even though the climate already changed, but hopefully it doesn’t lead to a global catastrophe by sparking an explosion in the form of economic and political upheaval in China which is vital to a global economy.
As for the peace negotiation, China doesn’t want the full collapse of Russia as it will hurt any moral concerning Taiwan, economically they need to restore global supply chains and the contracts would be lucrative and serve as an additional safeguard. Ukraine could agree not to join NATO for restoration of all 1991 territories , agree to Chinese contracts for extra measure, but agree that they will be allowed to build their own self-defense with the help of all their allies both their Western and Eastern Allies, that’s a win win for everyone and even Russia doesn’t get NATO right on their doorstep.