Good morning...I am still in near delirium from jet lag and so the lead is from reporting this AM by Mike Allen and Jonathan Swan of Axios on Trump's views of the trade conflict with China--Axios AM - Trump sees a war he can win:
I have no better info on the ground obviously. But am a bit struck by the rushed triumphalism from the trade war warriors in DC after 1.5 months of tarriffs. Am afraid to say they are behaving like typical American traders we see trading in european markets. No patience, prone to rushing to judgements, with little local knowledge/understanding..which makes them easy targets of cynical local brokers/company managements. I wonder who is boosting their optimism...please not the anti-chicom media in greater china or local anti-chicom 'organisations'...when in the 70 odd years were these people ever right about Chicom? I m in the camp that this is a Cold War that would last for years to come. There is no way Xi's China is not preparing for the long haul. Raising expectation of a quick victory so early just doesnt bode well. Japan, Korea, Vietnam...no precedence of quick victory in East Asia...
Well it's unlikely Beijing can actually get all of the ROC's allies to switch, for several obvious factors. 1. the less we have, the more our resource concentrate, so while we can't outbid Beijing over a lot of countries, out bidding them in one or two is entirely possible. 2. The Vatican's concern with Beijing is a very different thing 3. Most importantly, the Pacific Islands are effectively protectorates of the US under the compact of free associations, it seems unless it's in the US intention for this to happen, they can easily exert extreme pressure on these tiny states to prevent that from happening. and frankly, even going to extraordinary means is certainly not unheard of in the past of the US.
But that we have lost 5 allies in just 2 years under Tsai while Ma lost 1 in 8 is a reminder that for all the talk there's no bite on Taipei's part and for whatever they tell the Think tanks folks in DC, Beijing (and indeed, if one ever bother to follow local discussions in Taiwan.) sees things in an entirely different light.
I think two important things to note with respect to the Taiwan matter.
One, reports indicate that the ruling party in El Salvador asked for campaign funding. If this is accurate, no one can begrudge a democracy for not playing authoritarian games.
Two, while 5 allies have flipped in the past 2 years, it's also important to note that this is in concert with an aggressive 2 years for the CCP. I don't know that anyone else could have done anything better or differently.
I have no better info on the ground obviously. But am a bit struck by the rushed triumphalism from the trade war warriors in DC after 1.5 months of tarriffs. Am afraid to say they are behaving like typical American traders we see trading in european markets. No patience, prone to rushing to judgements, with little local knowledge/understanding..which makes them easy targets of cynical local brokers/company managements. I wonder who is boosting their optimism...please not the anti-chicom media in greater china or local anti-chicom 'organisations'...when in the 70 odd years were these people ever right about Chicom? I m in the camp that this is a Cold War that would last for years to come. There is no way Xi's China is not preparing for the long haul. Raising expectation of a quick victory so early just doesnt bode well. Japan, Korea, Vietnam...no precedence of quick victory in East Asia...
Well it's unlikely Beijing can actually get all of the ROC's allies to switch, for several obvious factors. 1. the less we have, the more our resource concentrate, so while we can't outbid Beijing over a lot of countries, out bidding them in one or two is entirely possible. 2. The Vatican's concern with Beijing is a very different thing 3. Most importantly, the Pacific Islands are effectively protectorates of the US under the compact of free associations, it seems unless it's in the US intention for this to happen, they can easily exert extreme pressure on these tiny states to prevent that from happening. and frankly, even going to extraordinary means is certainly not unheard of in the past of the US.
But that we have lost 5 allies in just 2 years under Tsai while Ma lost 1 in 8 is a reminder that for all the talk there's no bite on Taipei's part and for whatever they tell the Think tanks folks in DC, Beijing (and indeed, if one ever bother to follow local discussions in Taiwan.) sees things in an entirely different light.
I think two important things to note with respect to the Taiwan matter.
One, reports indicate that the ruling party in El Salvador asked for campaign funding. If this is accurate, no one can begrudge a democracy for not playing authoritarian games.
Two, while 5 allies have flipped in the past 2 years, it's also important to note that this is in concert with an aggressive 2 years for the CCP. I don't know that anyone else could have done anything better or differently.
If you ACTUALLY think Trump is winning the trade war then watch this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etkd57lPfPU
And?